Cap Implications of Keeping Brady AND Garoppolo

[pazrul72]

The only way I can see keeping both is if 2018 is Brady's last year, at least with the pats, and everyone in the room knows it. I think two more elite years from Brady is a reasonable assumption and anything after that is guess work at best. It does require Grop to give up one year of starting but it sounds like he does understand this is the best franchise in sports and not having to rebuild relationships plus learn a new offense might be in his long term career best interests. So after this season he signs a long term (5-6 year) contract with the first year only counting against the cap for 8-10 million. Still painful for a back up but not cap crippling. He gets in cash like 30 million so not GTFO either on his end. Assuming the favorites do win the Superbowl this year it gives Brady time to show his training methods work and to retire an unquestioned legend with seven rings and a three-peat. With Brady's numbers off the books for 2019 Grop assumes the starting QB role of 18-20 million a year. It will take everyone sacrifing a little but in theory it's at least possible. They must REALLY love Grop is the only conclusion I can draw from their actions so far yet understand Brady is still playing at an All pro level and continues to give them the best chance to win. It really is a tough call how do you get the 2-4 years of elite Brady AND the 8-10 years of at least above average Grop? And if you had to choose just one which do you go with? No right/wrong answer IMO.

 

[long distance]

It has everything to do with this thread. JAG isn't sticking around as a backup for his 5th and 6th years.

I suspect you were amongst the big group saying the same for this year..

 

[long distance]

They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.

Immensely cheaper to what was paid for Griffin, Goff etc.
Or keeping a competitive 52 roster w/o QB . like half of the league for a long time..

 

[XLIX]

I suspect you were amongst the big group saying the same for this year..

Garoppolo had no choice in the matter for this year. There is a difference between trying to predict what Belichick is going to do versus stating that Garoppolo won't take pennies on the dollar to remain a backup.

 

[Ring 6]

I suspect you were amongst the big group saying the same for this year..

He has no choice this year so no one would be saying this.

 

[BobDigital]

JG will not sign a long term contract here if Brady is still starting after this year and frankly if he did I would be worried about what it says about his competitive drive and love for actually playing. He can get just a big or bigger contract playing somewhere else and getting to start.

It is the franchise tag or nothing. Then they need to franchise him again after that year until Brady is gone and he gets the starting job.

In my mind it wouldn't make sense. It is either one or the other.

If Brady plays elite this year and shows no signs of slowing down going into next year you keep Brady and use your first round pick on a QB.

If Brady shows any signs he might be slipping you trade him and keep JG. That is how i see it.

Franchising JG to keep Brady will keep you from winning the super bowl. In that case what is the point? Keep JG and trade Brady for value and then you get draft capable and have a very good team around JG and he gets to grow as a player and get actual playing experience.

Either you believe you have a good chance to win 1-2 more after this year with Brady or you believe that run is over and your best chance to win SBs in the future is JG. That is the question.

 

[BradyFTW!]

maybe offer garoppolo a gronk-style tiered contract based on playing time in the early years, with a fairly high base amount. that way if garoppolo does end up playing significant minutes whether due to brady's retirement or injury, he'll end up being compensated like a starter. if not, he'll be paid handsomely as a backup.
.

What incentive does Garoppolo have to sign that deal? Doubly so if he's a competitive guy who wants to start. It's already a pretty big ask to get a competitive guy who wants to start to accept being the backup for a couple years. To then say "and since you're not starting you're also not going to make anywhere near the money you could somewhere else..." takes it pretty much out of the realm of reasonable possibility. There would be no reason at all for him to stick around under that deal when he could either A) get paid elite QB money under the franchise tag, or B) go somewhere else and get paid starter money. One way or another, Garoppolo is going to be paid starting QB money after 2017. If we want to keep both QBs past 2017, that will entail paying starting QB money to two guys.

If anything, I could maybe see a possibility of Brady accepting a huge paycut in order to stick around, especially if he sees himself retiring in the next couple years anyway. He's already made so much money that he might be okay with that, especially if the alternative is going to a new team at age 41 and trying to learn a new offense, new coaching staff, etc. I don't think that's likely or anything, but IMO it's a far more likely possibility than Garoppolo agreeing to a bargain basement contract.

 

[Deus Irae]

IF THEY GUT THE ENTIRE TEAM, THEY CAN KEEP BOTH QBS!


Yippee

 

[BradyFTW!]

JG will not sign a long term contract here if Brady is still starting after this year and frankly if he did I would be worried about what it says about his competitive drive and love for actually playing. He can get just a big or bigger contract playing somewhere else and getting to start.

It is the franchise tag or nothing. Then they need to franchise him again after that year until Brady is gone and he gets the starting job.

In my mind it wouldn't make sense. It is either one or the other.

If Brady plays elite this year and shows no signs of slowing down going into next year you keep Brady and use your first round pick on a QB.

If Brady shows any signs he might be slipping you trade him and keep JG. That is how i see it.

Franchising JG to keep Brady will keep you from winning the super bowl. In that case what is the point? Keep JG and trade Brady for value and then you get draft capable and have a very good team around JG and he gets to grow as a player and get actual playing experience.

Either you believe you have a good chance to win 1-2 more after this year with Brady or you believe that run is over and your best chance to win SBs in the future is JG. That is the question.

I do think there's a third possibility that entails franchising Jimmy while Brady takes a massive paycut to avoid learning a new offense and playing in a new environment at age 41. Very unlikely, IMO, to the point that it's barely even worth mentioning. Far more likely that after 2017 we have one QB or the other but not both. But I do think it's a slim possibility.

 

[BradyFTW!]

IF THEY GUT THE ENTIRE TEAM, THEY CAN KEEP BOTH QBS!


Yippee

Seriously, at that point just get rid of Brady because you'd just be wasting the rest of his career anyway.

 

[BelichickFan]

I disagree to the extent that the mental and knowledge portion of Brady's game would require his skill to become awful before his play became average.

Maybe I'm wrong but once the physical deterioration is clear to Bill I think he'll move on if he has a good replacement. Again, though, I don't expect it anytime soon.

 

[pazrul72]

JG will not sign a long term contract here if Brady is still starting after this year and frankly if he did I would be worried about what it says about his competitive drive and love for actually playing. He can get just a big or bigger contract playing somewhere else and getting to start.

It is the franchise tag or nothing. Then they need to franchise him again after that year until Brady is gone and he gets the starting job.

In my mind it wouldn't make sense. It is either one or the other.

If Brady plays elite this year and shows no signs of slowing down going into next year you keep Brady and use your first round pick on a QB.

If Brady shows any signs he might be slipping you trade him and keep JG. That is how i see it.

Franchising JG to keep Brady will keep you from winning the super bowl. In that case what is the point? Keep JG and trade Brady for value and then you get draft capable and have a very good team around JG and he gets to grow as a player and get actual playing experience.

Either you believe you have a good chance to win 1-2 more after this year with Brady or you believe that run is over and your best chance to win SBs in the future is JG. That is the question.

I agree entirely that anyone who willingly sits on the bench is a major red flag into their character and drive as an athlete. However, there is something to be said for working at a 5 star company vrs a 2 star company even if the 2 star offers you more money. I do think Grop is intelligent enough to understand the long term benefits of staying with the pats even if the price is another year of sitting. Course if it was me at the negotiating table I would use that to drive up my price a little. Say they were offering me 16 million a year I would counter sitting sucks I've put in my time I want 18. I don't think it's quite as black and white as you've painted it

 

[long distance]

I'd love to see Miguel do a professional analysis of this instead of my amateur hack job.

You did a very good job.

Here's Miguel's take from Oct 1 2016:
Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017

Miguel's possible JG contract:


His podcast on the topic:
Podcast: How Long Can The Patriots Hold On To Both Brady And Garoppolo? - PatsFans.com
__

Much of this was discussed in this thread:
Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017
__

Miguel's blog about possible another Brady's extension:
The Patriots reportedly want to extend their greatest player ever – Tom Brady
__

This was done w “Pats chose Brady“ assumption . so it'd be nice to see Miguel's take at this point in time..

 

[Rob0729]

maybe structure garoppolo's contract similar to gronk's--base it on playing time in the early years, with a fairly high base amount. that way if garoppolo does end up playing significant minutes whether due to brady's retirement or injury, he'll end up being compensated like a starter. if not, he'll be paid handsomely as a backup.

(edited to change starting point of assumptions)
.

Garoppolo doesn't want to spend more time of his career as a back up. He will happily take the $22 million guaranteed and then take additional money if he gets playing time like Gronk's contract like if he plays 90% of the snaps he gets $36 million. No way is he going to negotiate for less than the franchise to be a back up.

The guy is 25 years old. He is wasting his prime years as a back up. He is not going to take less to sit and wait for Brady to retire. He might be willing to sit and hold a clipboard if he is making Andrew Luck money to do so, but he certainly isn't going to less.

Garopollo has the leverage in this. If the Pats are not willing to make him a starter and keep Brady as a starter, his best move is to just take the franchise money and wait it out. If the Pats pay him $22 million to sit next year, they will have to eventually give him a good deal as a starter anyway or franchise him another year.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree entirely that anyone who willingly sits on the bench is a major red flag into their character and drive as an athlete. However, there is something to be said for working at a 5 star company vrs a 2 star company even if the 2 star offers you more money. I do think Grop is intelligent enough to understand the long term benefits of staying with the pats even if the price is another year of sitting. Course if it was me at the negotiating table I would use that to drive up my price a little. Say they were offering me 16 million a year I would counter sitting sucks I've put in my time I want 18. I don't think it's quite as black and white as you've painted it

People keep arguing that it is better to sit behind Brady than going to a bad organization. No offense, but I say this argument is BS.

First, who said that if Garoppolo hits free agency or gets traded that he will go to a bad team. There are good teams out there that are a QB away from being legitimate contenders. He could end up there. Say he becomes a free agent next year, he could go to the Texans or Broncos.

Second, if Garoppolo has confidence in himself, he will feel that he could make a mediocre or bad team great. What were the Colts before Peyton Manning? What were the Saints before Drew Brees (althought they have had spotty records over the year they did win a Super Bowl primarily because Brees was awesome)? This is a QB driven league and the addition of an elite QB can make a bad team a contender no matter the organization. Hell, the Colts even got to the AFCCG despite Ryan Grigson screwing up the personnel because of Andrew Luck. And great, not elite QBs like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton carried their teams to the Super Bowl game.

Third, how much longer is Belichick going to be the head coach and will this team be as good after he leaves. Garopollo is 25. He could be playing for another 15 years or longer. Bill Belichick is 65. What if he wins a Super Bowl with Garoppolo in his first year as a starter and decides that he proved he would win a Super Bowl without Brady and decides to retire?

Lastly, why would he take less to sit? If the Pats truly believe he is the future, he can just refuse to negotiate and take the franchise tag money and get a huge deal the following year. If he is not playing, the need for job security isn't nearly as important because the risk of getting injured seriously is reduced exponentially.

 

[long distance]

As I was saying before the only Q to me was 2018.
(no, i don't see TB playing beyond that - just a small hunch - but as rightly mentioned before thats OT)

One issue is money (40M+ for both in worst case scenario).
The other is JG possibly having to take another backup year.

1. Pats are in great 2017 and 2018 cap shape.
They can afford to keep them both + basically all players that they really want to keep. The big cap Q is Solder but bringing in 5 OTs this off-season could be a hint there. Another Q could be Butler (hard to see them going in bidding war for their #2CB @ #1 money - Ryan scenario most likely).
(BTW - feel free to add 15M to 2018 cap space as the usual yearly raise is above 8% and even higher last years)

2. Pats are in great roster shape (arguably best ever).
They can afford to lose/trade some starters and not compromise quality or depth too much.

3. Pats have control over Jimmy - FT
It would be an expensive control for 2018 but manageable. Will they use it? Probably yes if they have to (if no long term) - since they would need to do that even if they'd decide to trade him. Will they keep him under FT? Too early to tell probably even for BB&co. Would they keep him against his will? Well, whatever they think it's best for the team.

4. Pats (and JG) can afford to have a very open dialogue about it..
.. with TB and JG having the same representative . quite an exclusive situation to be in that might prove decisive in making what most experts and fans saw impossible not long ago to become possible..

 

[stinkypete]

The Patriots project to have about $30 million in cap space in 2018, with potential for up to $19 million in carry over from the 2017 cap, depending on whether there are in-season acquisitions or if Gronk earns his incentives. The franchise number for a QB was about $24 million in 2017, so it will be nominally higher next year.

There is a key group of free agents looming in 2018: Butler, Solder, Edelman, Ealy, Burkhead, VanNoy, Lewis, Nink, and of course Garoppolo.

If the team carries over most of the unused 2017 cap space, then you can probably franchise Garoppolo and retain a some of the key free agents. If they carry over $10 million or less, the franchise number probably becomes prohibitive.

 

[long distance]

The Patriots project to have about $30 million in cap space in 2018, with potential for up to $19 million in carry over from the 2017 cap, depending on whether there are in-season acquisitions or if Gronk earns his incentives. The franchise number for a QB was about $24 million in 2017, so it will be nominally higher next year.

There is a key group of free agents looming in 2018: Butler, Solder, Edelman, Ealy, Burkhead, VanNoy, Lewis, Nink, and of course Garoppolo.

If the team carries over most of the unused 2017 cap space, then you can probably franchise Garoppolo and retain a some of the key free agents. If they carry over $10 million or less, the franchise number probably becomes prohibitive.

2017 FT for QBs is $21.25M. (It was 19.9M in 2016 and 18.5M in 2015).
Between 22-23M in 2018 Id guess.

You can add some 15M (yearly raise) to the 30M projected cap space in 2018.
Possible carryover between 10-15M (depending on Gronk and other incentives etc.)

So possibly some 60M to work with. Quite a lot of flexibility there.

Remember that even big new contracts carry relatively small 1st year cap hits.
Plus Pats bring back their UFAs for considerable less money than projected.

2017 cap hits for top UFAs Pats brought back in 2017:
Hightower - 5M
Branch - 3.7M
Harmon - 3.5M

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I expect Brady to not show that physical deterioration. But he doesn't have to drop to useless for Bill to look in JG's direction.

He doesn't even need to drop to the point of being worse than JG for Bill to move on. At some point the lack of remaining time in Brady's career would outweigh Brady still being better than JG.

 

[pazrul72]

People keep arguing that it is better to sit behind Brady than going to a bad organization. No offense, but I say this argument is BS.

First, who said that if Garoppolo hits free agency or gets traded that he will go to a bad team. There are good teams out there that are a QB away from being legitimate contenders. He could end up there. Say he becomes a free agent next year, he could go to the Texans or Broncos.

Second, if Garoppolo has confidence in himself, he will feel that he could make a mediocre or bad team great. What were the Colts before Peyton Manning? What were the Saints before Drew Brees (althought they have had spotty records over the year they did win a Super Bowl primarily because Brees was awesome)? This is a QB driven league and the addition of an elite QB can make a bad team a contender no matter the organization. Hell, the Colts even got to the AFCCG despite Ryan Grigson screwing up the personnel because of Andrew Luck. And great, not elite QBs like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton carried their teams to the Super Bowl game.

Third, how much longer is Belichick going to be the head coach and will this team be as good after he leaves. Garopollo is 25. He could be playing for another 15 years or longer. Bill Belichick is 65. What if he wins a Super Bowl with Garoppolo in his first year as a starter and decides that he proved he would win a Super Bowl without Brady and decides to retire?

Lastly, why would he take less to sit? If the Pats truly believe he is the future, he can just refuse to negotiate and take the franchise tag money and get a huge deal the following year. If he is not playing, the need for job security isn't nearly as important because the risk of getting injured seriously is reduced exponentially.

It's not sitting behind Brady that is better then going to a crap organization it's the 4 years he has been in the building creating relationships. He knows the owners and that winning is part of the culture. He knows the coaches including if (God forbid) bill retires a year or two from now. I am sure one of McDaniels or Patricia would do right by him and he knows and understands both. I am not arguing those should be the only things he cares about cuz I know I would rather start for the browns making 20 million then sit with the pats for 10 but they should factor in if it's close. Is that enough to sit for an extra year? No one but Grop can answer that but I could see it factoring in IF Brady is gone 2019 and IF the pats offer him comparable starting money but structure it to hit the cap in a useful manner.