The Pats are in great shape cap-wise for 2017. Not a problem. But with all the JG speculation going on in several other threads, I thought it would be good to have a thread dedicated to the financial implications of keeping BOTH Brady and JG. Since, of course, that IS one of the possible scenarios out there.
In 2018, JG is a UFA, and Brady is scheduled to make $22m. At that point, if Brady is playing well and they want to keep JG through the end of Brady's contract, they have to either franchise JG (guaranteeing he stays), or work out a long-term deal with JG. Brady's contract is up after 2019, so JG would likely not be looking at a starting job with NE until 2020. He may have ZERO interest in that, but then again, who the heck knows. Either way, it will cost big $$ to keep him, and that means dedicating a HUGE portion of the Patriots' salary cap to the QB position.
Let's assume a $168 million salary cap (that's what spotrac.com uses) for 2018 and 2019. It probably will be adjusted somewhat from that, but let's go with it.
Brady alone will comprise 13% of the salary cap. The franchise figure for JG as a QB will likely be about $22 million as well (it's $21.2m for 2017). That would be $44 million reserved just for TB and JG.
Here are some guys who are free agents after 2017, and their 2017 salaries that could conceivably come off the books (not taking into account guys they just plain cut):
Edelman: $5.7m
Amendola: $3.0m
Slater: $1.6m
Burkhead: $3.2m
Lewis: $1.5m
Bolden: $695k
Solder: $11.2m
Fleming: $1.8m
Waddle: $1.1m
Ninkovich: $2.5m
Ealy: $904k
Van Noy: $1.1m
Butler: $3.9m
Ebner: $1.2m
Coleman: $615k
King: $615k
FWIW, that's almost $40 million right there that could come off the books after 2017. I think some of these guys are basically locks to come off the books: Amendola, Lewis, Solder, Fleming, Ninkovich, Butler. Those guys alone would total $23.9 million. Enough to cover JG.
However, a number of guys have contacts structured to give them huge pay increases in 2018. Namely:
Brady: from $14m to $22m (+$8m)
Hogan: from $2.9m to $3.5m (+$0.6m)
Cooks: from $1.5m to $8.5m (+$7m)
White: from $1.8m to $2.5m (+$0.7m)
Cannon: from $3.3m to $6.0m (+$2.7m)
Branch: from $3.7m to $4.7m (+$1.0m)
Guy: from $2.6m to $3.1m (+$0.5m)
Hightower: from $5.3m to $9.1m (+$3.8m)
McCourty: from $11.0m to $11.9m (+$0.9m)
Gilmore: from $8.6m to $12.6m (+$4.0m)
Ghost: from $4.5m to $5.0m (+$0.5m)
Those increases come to $29.7 million, which means they're back to where they were (and then some).
There will also be dead money coming off after 2017. About $1.6 million. Helpful, but not really a huge difference-maker in terms of making space for JG and TB together.
So to keep JG would require them to basically let all their UFAs go (including Butler...ouch), and also cutting and/or restructuring a ton of guys. One piece of good news is that the Patriots have more than $9 million in cap space right now, which, if they don't use it, will mean that they have that much more to play with for 2018.
It would be a helluva lotta expensive to let a bunch of those quality players go in order to keep JG in a backup role. But the Patriots have worked hard the past two seasons or so building up such incredible depth that they probably could afford to lose them and still be really good. They're rebuilding the OL with young guys, so losing Solder probably isn't a killer blow. Gilmore is here as a #1 corner, so losing Butler after 2017 probably can be handled. Edelman and Amendola going would be painful, but a receiving corps of Cooks, Mitchell, Hogan, and Hawking is pretty damned good. I'm sure they could afford to lose Nink and Van Noy without too much pain. Burkhead and Lewis going is handled by having White and Gillislee. You get the idea.
They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.
I'd love to see Miguel do a professional analysis of this instead of my amateur hack job.
In 2018, JG is a UFA, and Brady is scheduled to make $22m. At that point, if Brady is playing well and they want to keep JG through the end of Brady's contract, they have to either franchise JG (guaranteeing he stays), or work out a long-term deal with JG. Brady's contract is up after 2019, so JG would likely not be looking at a starting job with NE until 2020. He may have ZERO interest in that, but then again, who the heck knows. Either way, it will cost big $$ to keep him, and that means dedicating a HUGE portion of the Patriots' salary cap to the QB position.
Let's assume a $168 million salary cap (that's what spotrac.com uses) for 2018 and 2019. It probably will be adjusted somewhat from that, but let's go with it.
Brady alone will comprise 13% of the salary cap. The franchise figure for JG as a QB will likely be about $22 million as well (it's $21.2m for 2017). That would be $44 million reserved just for TB and JG.
Here are some guys who are free agents after 2017, and their 2017 salaries that could conceivably come off the books (not taking into account guys they just plain cut):
Edelman: $5.7m
Amendola: $3.0m
Slater: $1.6m
Burkhead: $3.2m
Lewis: $1.5m
Bolden: $695k
Solder: $11.2m
Fleming: $1.8m
Waddle: $1.1m
Ninkovich: $2.5m
Ealy: $904k
Van Noy: $1.1m
Butler: $3.9m
Ebner: $1.2m
Coleman: $615k
King: $615k
FWIW, that's almost $40 million right there that could come off the books after 2017. I think some of these guys are basically locks to come off the books: Amendola, Lewis, Solder, Fleming, Ninkovich, Butler. Those guys alone would total $23.9 million. Enough to cover JG.
However, a number of guys have contacts structured to give them huge pay increases in 2018. Namely:
Brady: from $14m to $22m (+$8m)
Hogan: from $2.9m to $3.5m (+$0.6m)
Cooks: from $1.5m to $8.5m (+$7m)
White: from $1.8m to $2.5m (+$0.7m)
Cannon: from $3.3m to $6.0m (+$2.7m)
Branch: from $3.7m to $4.7m (+$1.0m)
Guy: from $2.6m to $3.1m (+$0.5m)
Hightower: from $5.3m to $9.1m (+$3.8m)
McCourty: from $11.0m to $11.9m (+$0.9m)
Gilmore: from $8.6m to $12.6m (+$4.0m)
Ghost: from $4.5m to $5.0m (+$0.5m)
Those increases come to $29.7 million, which means they're back to where they were (and then some).
There will also be dead money coming off after 2017. About $1.6 million. Helpful, but not really a huge difference-maker in terms of making space for JG and TB together.
So to keep JG would require them to basically let all their UFAs go (including Butler...ouch), and also cutting and/or restructuring a ton of guys. One piece of good news is that the Patriots have more than $9 million in cap space right now, which, if they don't use it, will mean that they have that much more to play with for 2018.
It would be a helluva lotta expensive to let a bunch of those quality players go in order to keep JG in a backup role. But the Patriots have worked hard the past two seasons or so building up such incredible depth that they probably could afford to lose them and still be really good. They're rebuilding the OL with young guys, so losing Solder probably isn't a killer blow. Gilmore is here as a #1 corner, so losing Butler after 2017 probably can be handled. Edelman and Amendola going would be painful, but a receiving corps of Cooks, Mitchell, Hogan, and Hawking is pretty damned good. I'm sure they could afford to lose Nink and Van Noy without too much pain. Burkhead and Lewis going is handled by having White and Gillislee. You get the idea.
They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.
I'd love to see Miguel do a professional analysis of this instead of my amateur hack job.