Cap Implications of Keeping Brady AND Garoppolo

[Rob0729]

It's not sitting behind Brady that is better then going to a crap organization it's the 4 years he has been in the building creating relationships. He knows the owners and that winning is part of the culture. He knows the coaches including if (God forbid) bill retires a year or two from now. I am sure one of McDaniels or Patricia would do right by him and he knows and understands both. I am not arguing those should be the only things he cares about cuz I know I would rather start for the browns making 20 million then sit with the pats for 10 but they should factor in if it's close. Is that enough to sit for an extra year? No one but Grop can answer that but I could see it factoring in IF Brady is gone 2019 and IF the pats offer him comparable starting money but structure it to hit the cap in a useful manner.

A football player's playing career is incredibly short. Every year he sits could be anywhere from at least 7.5-10% of the rest of his playing career wasted as a back up. Most QBs would rather play for a bad team than waste that much time.

It is possible for Garoppolo to go to even the Browns and help make them a Super Bowl contender. It is impossible to turn around Father Time and every year lost as a back up he cannot get back.

And what if Brady is the MVP of the league and wins a Super Bowl in 2018 and wants to keep playing? Will the Pats guarantee Garoppolo that they won't keep Brady in that situation?

Sorry, but it is silly to believe that Garoppolo will stay to be the back up for anything less than the franchise tag money or elite starter money because he knows he can get paid to start somewhere else and possibly with a team that is a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender. I don't care how much he loves this organization. He can't be happy sitting waiting for his shot when he probably believes he is better than at least half the starting QBs in the league.

Everyone always brings up Steve Young sitting behind Montana, but I bet if Young could have gotten out of San Fran when they were still committed to Montana he would have gone somewhere else and started. His problem was he was in an era of no free agency and the early parts of free agency where it was impossible to get to be a free agent. The 49ers dumped Montana when they knew they were getting close to losing Young if they didn't commit to him as a starter.

 

[borg]

A hypothetical that involves degrading the entire rest if the roster which really is not a valid hypothetical.

Do good teams cut 16/53's of the roster to stash a $22 million clip board holder?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Do good teams cut 16/53's of the roster to stash a $22 million clip board holder?

The thing is we don't know if he will be a clipboard holder or not. And we don't need to make that decision right now.

Jimmy, Tom, BB, nobody knows when Brady's time will be up yet. We all have predictions and ideas. But it could be this year. Or next. Or maybe 5 years. It could happen one off-season. It could be an injury. It could happen after an incredible hot streak in the middle of the season.

Look at Peyton Manning. Over the first 12 games of the 2014 season, he's on fire, completing 67% of his passes, throwing 36 TDs vs. 9 INTs for a 107.8 RAT. And then he starts to struggle a bit, ending the regular season throwing 3 TDs vs. 6 INTs and a 76.8 RAT. This is the start of his decline, but nobody sees it because he's had such an incredible stretch, they shrug it off as a few bad games.

But he'd throw 12 TDs vs. 23 INTs in the 14 regular season games after the hot start, including a brutal playoff loss to the Colts. Of course he rode the D to a Super Bowl ring (ugh), but he was cooked as a player even in the previous season.

So you hold onto Jimmy this year, and you play the season out. You don't know what it will be. If Brady is 19-0 and looks amazing, then maybe you don't sign Jimmy. But if he starts to fade late, then it's a different story altogether.

Brady has a $22M cap hit in 2018, but if he's cut, would cost $14M in dead money. That's a lot of money to eat, but it's also technically saving $8M in cap space if they made that move. But it's contingent on what happens on the field. And none of us know exactly how that will play out. But there's also no rush to decide on whether to franchise him or not yet. The key factors to make that decision haven't even begun.

 

[deroc5050]

The complete anthithesis of the way BB has built this franchise would be to let a large number of starters and role players leave, and not have money to adequately replace them by spending it on a back up QB.

Also, why in the world would garoppolo stay a FIFTH and SIXTH year as a backup when I'm sure he believes he could start on many teams and at least a few of them would give him the chance?

Garoppolo's future in NE hinges on Brady retiring (almost zero chance of that) or falling apart in the next 9 months, going from best in the league to useless.

It's funny to me that the same people who are talking about 19-0 and winning the 3rd SB in 4 years are the same ones trying to ride the GOAT out of town to make sure we hang on to the unproven guy with some potential.

No I don't think people are trying to ride Brady out of town. Best case scenario Brady plays 2 more seasons as the starter and then JG takes over. Most likely Brady would have 1 maybe 2 good seasons left after 2018.

The biggest issue with this is what to do about 2018 salary. Paying both for 1 year to ensure the QB of the future (if thats what he is) is probably worth it in the long run. However it is very unorthodox.

Basically if we get to that point we are now talking 10+ years of JG to 1+ year of Brady. I want to see Brady retire a Patriot but I would hate to lose a great young QB who knows the system and his ready to take over for 1 maybe 2 years of Brady.

And before you you start.. I am not basing this off of 1 and 1/2 games, I am basing this off of Bills comments and actions.

I think at the very least JG is going to be a solid QB, other than that... well all i can say is after Brady leaves I hope we don't turn into the Dolphins or the Bills.. or the Jets.. Or 75% of the league. If JG can keep the Patriot's on the winning train, I would sacrifice 1 or 2 years of Brady.

Of course thats considering Brady plays 2 more seasons. The way things look this could very well be Brady's last season as a Patriot. That is a very questionable decision because we could potentially be passing up on another Super Bowl run or maybe 2 with Brady. Thats where it gets murky for me, cause I don't know what JG is.

 

[pazrul72]

A football player's playing career is incredibly short. Every year he sits could be anywhere from at least 7.5-10% of the rest of his playing career wasted as a back up. Most QBs would rather play for a bad team than waste that much time.

It is possible for Garoppolo to go to even the Browns and help make them a Super Bowl contender. It is impossible to turn around Father Time and every year lost as a back up he cannot get back.

And what if Brady is the MVP of the league and wins a Super Bowl in 2018 and wants to keep playing? Will the Pats guarantee Garoppolo that they won't keep Brady in that situation?

Sorry, but it is silly to believe that Garoppolo will stay to be the back up for anything less than the franchise tag money or elite starter money because he knows he can get paid to start somewhere else and possibly with a team that is a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender. I don't care how much he loves this organization. He can't be happy sitting waiting for his shot when he probably believes he is better than at least half the starting QBs in the league.

Everyone always brings up Steve Young sitting behind Montana, but I bet if Young could have gotten out of San Fran when they were still committed to Montana he would have gone somewhere else and started. His problem was he was in an era of no free agency and the early parts of free agency where it was impossible to get to be a free agent. The 49ers dumped Montana when they knew they were getting close to losing Young if they didn't commit to him as a starter.

I don't disagree entirely with anything you said, Not For Long careers ARE short and maximizing them should be priority one for every player. This is the part where we are both just speculating about how Grop is going to do that. You think waiting a year more is too much to ask for anything short of the 22 million FRanchise tag. I am hoping Jimmy is the kind of guy who would be willing to keep the rest of the team strong by not getting absolute top top dollar like Brady has done for years. Who's right? Right now no one knows.

I guess I think of it this way if I had been at a job for 8 years learning from a guy who had been doing it for 55, widely considered the very best in the business, and I got offered his job but across the country away from friends, family, and my current home the pay better be exceptional. Now my current company hears of my offer and asks me to stay for a 50% raise until that other guy retires and I will get his job full time with his pay. I would seriously consider staying simply because it's a hell of a lot easier. Others would say take the money stupid and that happens a lot too. Which is Jimmy? I have no clue but it's not as black and white IMO as franchise tag or he is gone

 

[Rob0729]

I don't disagree entirely with anything you said, Not For Long careers ARE short and maximizing them should be priority one for every player. This is the part where we are both just speculating about how Grop is going to do that. You think waiting a year more is too much to ask for anything short of the 22 million FRanchise tag. I am hoping Jimmy is the kind of guy who would be willing to keep the rest of the team strong by not getting absolute top top dollar like Brady has done for years. Who's right? Right now no one knows.

I guess I think of it this way if I had been at a job for 8 years learning from a guy who had been doing it for 55, widely considered the very best in the business, and I got offered his job but across the country away from friends, family, and my current home the pay better be exceptional. Now my current company hears of my offer and asks me to stay for a 50% raise until that other guy retires and I will get his job full time with his pay. I would seriously consider staying simply because it's a hell of a lot easier. Others would say take the money stupid and that happens a lot too. Which is Jimmy? I have no clue but it's not as black and white IMO as franchise tag or he is gone

Your analogy doesn't work though. Comparing a professional athlete to an apprentice for a regular job doesn't work. Most NFL players want to play and most would take less to start somewhere even if it is a crappy team than get less playing time to play for a great team.

Look at Jason McCourty. He said the Pats were interested in him, but he chose Cleveland because he was guaranteed a starting job and he would have a spot role here with Butler and Gilmore on the roster. He knows what the Pats are all about because of his brother.

If the Pats want to keep Garoppolo next season, it will take the franchise tag short of a new deal to keep him from hitting the market. Most agents use that as the starting point for their per year price when negotiating. Garoppolo has more incentive for taking the franchise money because his risk for injury is minimized significantly by riding the pine. He doesn't need to security of a long term deal because he will most likely stay completely healthy in 2018 if he is still Brady's back up.

Personally, if Garoppolo is happy to take less and be Brady's back up for another year or two, I don't know if I want him as Brady's heir apparent. You gotta question the heart of a guy who is content to ride the pine and wait for his turn.

Part of what makes Brady so good is his drive not ever be someone's back up. In fact, he got better when Garoppolo got here and he saw that there was finally a potential heir apparent on the roster. Brady ended up working twice as hard in the offseason to get more mobile and fix his deficiencies to make sure Garoppolo stayed on the bench.

If the Pats truly think Garoppolo is that guy who can make the Pats not miss a beat when Brady is gone, I want him to fight for the starting position even if it has to be at the negotiating table. Show me you want to be "The Guy" and not just be in a good system. Brady had no problem wrestling the starting job from Bledsoe. Garoppolo needs to be just as ambitious with taking the reigns from Brady.

 

[Rob0729]

The thing is we don't know if he will be a clipboard holder or not. And we don't need to make that decision right now.

Jimmy, Tom, BB, nobody knows when Brady's time will be up yet. We all have predictions and ideas. But it could be this year. Or next. Or maybe 5 years. It could happen one off-season. It could be an injury. It could happen after an incredible hot streak in the middle of the season.

Look at Peyton Manning. Over the first 12 games of the 2014 season, he's on fire, completing 67% of his passes, throwing 36 TDs vs. 9 INTs for a 107.8 RAT. And then he starts to struggle a bit, ending the regular season throwing 3 TDs vs. 6 INTs and a 76.8 RAT. This is the start of his decline, but nobody sees it because he's had such an incredible stretch, they shrug it off as a few bad games.

But he'd throw 12 TDs vs. 23 INTs in the 14 regular season games after the hot start, including a brutal playoff loss to the Colts. Of course he rode the D to a Super Bowl ring (ugh), but he was cooked as a player even in the previous season.

So you hold onto Jimmy this year, and you play the season out. You don't know what it will be. If Brady is 19-0 and looks amazing, then maybe you don't sign Jimmy. But if he starts to fade late, then it's a different story altogether.

Brady has a $22M cap hit in 2018, but if he's cut, would cost $14M in dead money. That's a lot of money to eat, but it's also technically saving $8M in cap space if they made that move. But it's contingent on what happens on the field. And none of us know exactly how that will play out. But there's also no rush to decide on whether to franchise him or not yet. The key factors to make that decision haven't even begun.

You cannot use Peyton Manning as an example for Brady. Manning had multiple neck surgeries and couldn't even feel his fingers on his throwing hand when it got really cold. The guy had to go to Germany to get experimental stem cell treatments.

Plus, Manning's passes were always more lobbing touch passes down the field which are more affect with age because the ball hangs more when you have less power. Brady throws more of a tight spiral which will slow with age, but the decline will be less dramatic.

 

[pdangle]

The only way I can see JG staying for 3 year, is something lie this.

You rip up his current contract, and give him a 10M signing bonus this year. Structure the contract something like this:

2017: 3M - 10M bonus
2018 10M - 5M bonus if traded
----
He might bite bc, if NE frachises him next year, thats' what he'd get anyway, but this way he gets 10M now. and 13M this year.
-----
Then in 2019, for giving the money and security up front, you structure his salary and give additional bonuses so it's agreeable to both sides.

Just some thoughts. I think they could do it if they got JG the money this season. And he makes roughly the same over 3 yrs he would if NE franchises him next year.

 

[DarrylS]

Isn't there an existing thread about, "Stupid things we talk about during the offseason??"

This is the epitome of that thread as just about everyone who thinks that BB will either sign JG long term or franchise him, no matter how much cap room he has, defies the economic philosophy of this team and how it was built.

#12 will retire a Patriot and will never wear another Jersey, Mr. Kraft is a business man and knows his brand... he usually stays out of this stuff but he will not allow this to happen.

JG will not accept an incentive laden deal, as the money is there for a QB such as him.. why would he accept that??

Just because JG was not traded this year, does not mean he will not be traded after he is franchised next year... he was not traded this year because Brissett is a relative unknown, and as we go for #6 BB is smart enough to know that he needs quality depth..

FYI according to Miguel there is only $86 mil. allocated to Pats salaries for 2018, so that leaves a ton of room for next year.. there are a lot of numbers floating around regarding how much money is available next year, not sure what is correct. It makes no sense no matter what scenario for this team to allocate over $40 million in cap room for one position.. defies what we have seen in the past 16 years..

My table top crystal ball tells me that JG will be franchised and then traded next year, without regard for what anyone else does..

 

[goheels22002]

A hypothetical that involves degrading the entire rest if the roster which really is not a valid hypothetical.

I'm going into this year believing this is TFB's last year, or, he's come to the realization that 2016 was a good thing for his NFL longevity.

By taking off significant time in the preseason and missing 4 games, he was a house on fire in 2016 in a 12-game role. He understands his body and the wear and tear better than anyone, and a limited role makes too much sense. Aging pitchers do it. The NBA is doing it (see Tim Duncan (2014-2016).

If he really wants to keep playing, why not give JAG four spot starts, take less money and stay healthy? Brady can re-define the role of a senior veteran.

 

[long distance]

Bottom line and on topic: if they WANT to keep JG+TB in 2018 they CAN.

(they control both . cap and roster healthy to take it w/o major consequences.)


PS and OT:
Lombardi and Schefter are saying for a long time they want to..

 

[convertedpatsfan]

You cannot use Peyton Manning as an example for Brady. Manning had multiple neck surgeries and couldn't even feel his fingers on his throwing hand when it got really cold. The guy had to go to Germany to get experimental stem cell treatments.

Plus, Manning's passes were always more lobbing touch passes down the field which are more affect with age because the ball hangs more when you have less power. Brady throws more of a tight spiral which will slow with age, but the decline will be less dramatic.

You can't use anybody as an example for anybody. And you're missing the point: it's not predictable. It's like saying Guy 1 will absolutely live longer than Guy 2 because he eats healthier and doesn't smoke and drink. It's more likely, yes, but it doesn't guarantee a single thing.

You can't possibly know the decline will be less dramatic. You can guess. I can guess. Brady can guess. But none of us can know. And that's the point.

 

[ivanvamp]

You decide where I post?
It's completely valid because the player needs to agree to stay when he is a free agent.


Wrong. If YOU don't want to talk about my post, don't. You have free will.



Then don't respond.

Now you're just being a dink. What's the point of having distinct threads if every thread becomes the same exact conversation?

The whole reason I started this thread is to talk about THIS specific issue. You obviously can post wherever you like but that doesn't make you right about what this thread is about.

This isn't that hard, Andy.

 

[maineman209]

Jimmy G is not going to stay to back up and not take as much $ as he can. Pats are not going to franchise him either, I am pretty sure anyway.

IDK. It seems to me that, if JG is not staying after 2017, the Pats are fairly likely to do the Tag 'n' Trade Tango with him, like they did with Cassell.

 

[Rob0729]

You can't use anybody as an example for anybody. And you're missing the point: it's not predictable. It's like saying Guy 1 will absolutely live longer than Guy 2 because he eats healthier and doesn't smoke and drink. It's more likely, yes, but it doesn't guarantee a single thing.

You can't possibly know the decline will be less dramatic. You can guess. I can guess. Brady can guess. But none of us can know. And that's the point.

Sure you cannot predict what a guy will do and when he might breakdown, but you are giving an example of a guy with multiple neck surgeries as a possibility of what might happen to Brady in terms of how fast he might drop off a cliff.

Sure Brady may have just a dramatic of decline, but that doesn't change the fact that Manning was a completely different circumstance. If Manning didn't have those neck surgeries, he still might be playing and playing at an elite level already into his 40s.

 

[Rob0729]

Bottom line and on topic: if they WANT to keep JG+TB in 2018 they CAN.

(they control both . cap and roster healthy to take it w/o major consequences.)


PS and OT:
Lombardi and Schefter are saying for a long time they want to..

They can, but it would be costly and a big risk to the short term future of the team if they do because they would have to sacrifice in other areas of the team to keep them both on the roster.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Sure you cannot predict what a guy will do and when he might breakdown, but you are giving an example of a guy with multiple neck surgeries as a possibility of what might happen to Brady in terms of how fast he might drop off a cliff.

Sure Brady may have just a dramatic of decline, but that doesn't change the fact that Manning was a completely different circumstance. If Manning didn't have those neck surgeries, he still might be playing and playing at an elite level already into his 40s.

Not necessarily. Without the multiple neck surgeries, Manning might have been done in 2010. According to Peyton, he hadn't had feeling in his fingertips ever since the surgery, but he still had a fantastic 2013 and first 12 games of 2014. There's no direct evidence that the surgeries were the reason for the dramatic drop-off. It could be related, but it could also just be the years of Papa John's pizza too.

And look at Brett Favre, one of the NFL's iron men, and one of the few to last as long as Brady. He had a solid start to 2009 before tailing off towards the end. Some blame injury, though it was never officially reported. He comes back at age 40 to have an incredible 2010 season with the Vikings, throwing for over 4,000 yards and his highest passer rating in his career. Then 2011 is a total train wreck. His completion percentage drops almost 8 points, and he goes from 33 TDs/7 INTs to 11 TDs/19 INTs.

So Manning doesn't prove or deny anything. Neither does Favre. But my original point stands, nobody here knows how this will end. You and I can debate back and forth whether Manning counts as a precedent or not but it still doesn't change the original point.

 

[XLIX]

The thing is we don't know if he will be a clipboard holder or not. And we don't need to make that decision right now.

Jimmy, Tom, BB, nobody knows when Brady's time will be up yet. We all have predictions and ideas. But it could be this year. Or next. Or maybe 5 years. It could happen one off-season. It could be an injury. It could happen after an incredible hot streak in the middle of the season.

Look at Peyton Manning. Over the first 12 games of the 2014 season, he's on fire, completing 67% of his passes, throwing 36 TDs vs. 9 INTs for a 107.8 RAT. And then he starts to struggle a bit, ending the regular season throwing 3 TDs vs. 6 INTs and a 76.8 RAT. This is the start of his decline, but nobody sees it because he's had such an incredible stretch, they shrug it off as a few bad games.

But he'd throw 12 TDs vs. 23 INTs in the 14 regular season games after the hot start, including a brutal playoff loss to the Colts. Of course he rode the D to a Super Bowl ring (ugh), but he was cooked as a player even in the previous season.

The above turnaround for Manning literally began mid-season within weeks of the NFL implementing HGH testing.

Unlike Manning, Brady is not using HGH.

 

[XLIX]

I don't disagree entirely with anything you said, Not For Long careers ARE short and maximizing them should be priority one for every player. This is the part where we are both just speculating about how Grop is going to do that. You think waiting a year more is too much to ask for anything short of the 22 million FRanchise tag. I am hoping Jimmy is the kind of guy who would be willing to keep the rest of the team strong by not getting absolute top top dollar like Brady has done for years. Who's right? Right now no one knows.

There are a lot of guys who have "taken a little less" to help the team.

I can't think of a single guy who took a little less to hold a clipboard when other teams wanted him as a starter.

 

[Rob0729]

Not necessarily. Without the multiple neck surgeries, Manning might have been done in 2010. According to Peyton, he hadn't had feeling in his fingertips ever since the surgery, but he still had a fantastic 2013 and first 12 games of 2014. There's no direct evidence that the surgeries were the reason for the dramatic drop-off. It could be related, but it could also just be the years of Papa John's pizza too.

And look at Brett Favre, one of the NFL's iron men, and one of the few to last as long as Brady. He had a solid start to 2009 before tailing off towards the end. Some blame injury, though it was never officially reported. He comes back at age 40 to have an incredible 2010 season with the Vikings, throwing for over 4,000 yards and his highest passer rating in his career. Then 2011 is a total train wreck. His completion percentage drops almost 8 points, and he goes from 33 TDs/7 INTs to 11 TDs/19 INTs.

So Manning doesn't prove or deny anything. Neither does Favre. But my original point stands, nobody here knows how this will end. You and I can debate back and forth whether Manning counts as a precedent or not but it still doesn't change the original point.

I am talking about Manning's neck injury and surgeries. Many thought he would never come back from those surgeries. Completely different.

Also, Favre is different too. His last few years in the league, he would retreat to Mississippi and sit on a tractor and drink beer while teasing ESPN whether he would come back or retire. He never had the offseason regiment that Brady has. I think that played a big part in his quick fall off because his commitment to conditioning towards the end wasn't there.

There are plenty of elite QBs who had a far more gradual declines in play at the end of their career. There are a few QBs who played at a high level into their 40s (Warren Moon most notably).

But I don't think it matters. If Garoppolo is on this team in 2018, I fully expect that Brady won't be.