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I am talking about Manning's neck injury and surgeries. Many thought he would never come back from those surgeries. Completely different.
Also, Favre is different too. His last few years in the league, he would retreat to Mississippi and sit on a tractor and drink beer while teasing ESPN whether he would come back or retire. He never had the offseason regiment that Brady has. I think that played a big part in his quick fall off because his commitment to conditioning towards the end wasn't there.
There are plenty of elite QBs who had a far more gradual declines in play at the end of their career. There are a few QBs who played at a high level into their 40s (Warren Moon most notably).
But I don't think it matters. If Garoppolo is on this team in 2018, I fully expect that Brady won't be.
Favre is definitely different, but again, he had one of the longest careers in the league at the position. The drop may be because he stayed so long.
Marino played until age 38, and clearly had lost something. But it wasn't a floor dropping fall like we saw with Favre's last season. If he had played the next season though, it might have been.
If you look at Favre's age 36/37 years, they're pretty ugly, similar to Marino's last year. But then he came back and had a mini-resurgence before lighting it up his second-last year. If he had retired at age 39 after his season with the Jets, we would have thought he had a gradual decline similar to others.
But he got two more years, and he lit it up at age 40, which raised expectations, then he dropped significantly at age 41. If he retires at 39, we talk about the gradual decline. Instead, he kept going on so we got to see the floor drop.
We don't get to say the same of Marino, Montana, Kelly and others who saw the writing on the wall early enough. If any of those guys came back for another 2 seasons, you'd see that dramatic drop-off too.
And that's the thing with Brady, we don't know where that point is. We may have eclipsed it already. We just don't know. If we didn't come back in the Super Bowl, this would look a lot different in the off-season. Brady would be seen as old and perhaps washed-up after getting blown-out in the Super Bowl. The talk would be if it's time to replace him with Jimmy. It would be like 2014 after the KC game all over again, except it would last for months because there wouldn't be Cincinnati to move onto next week.
You bring up Favre not counting, but that's the point. He was the anti-Brady, but he outlasted many contemporaries who took the job way more seriously. Nothing Brady does will guarantee anything.
I hope Tom plays until he's 50 for the Patriots, but I don't think that will happen. So the team is balancing maximizing Brady's time while ensuring they maximize how long they could potentially have insurance in case something bad happens. If BB or Brady or Jimmy or you or I knew exactly when that would be, we'd be having a different discussion, but none of us do.