Cap Implications of Keeping Brady AND Garoppolo

[ivanvamp]

The Pats are in great shape cap-wise for 2017. Not a problem. But with all the JG speculation going on in several other threads, I thought it would be good to have a thread dedicated to the financial implications of keeping BOTH Brady and JG. Since, of course, that IS one of the possible scenarios out there.

In 2018, JG is a UFA, and Brady is scheduled to make $22m. At that point, if Brady is playing well and they want to keep JG through the end of Brady's contract, they have to either franchise JG (guaranteeing he stays), or work out a long-term deal with JG. Brady's contract is up after 2019, so JG would likely not be looking at a starting job with NE until 2020. He may have ZERO interest in that, but then again, who the heck knows. Either way, it will cost big $$ to keep him, and that means dedicating a HUGE portion of the Patriots' salary cap to the QB position.

Let's assume a $168 million salary cap (that's what spotrac.com uses) for 2018 and 2019. It probably will be adjusted somewhat from that, but let's go with it.

Brady alone will comprise 13% of the salary cap. The franchise figure for JG as a QB will likely be about $22 million as well (it's $21.2m for 2017). That would be $44 million reserved just for TB and JG.

Here are some guys who are free agents after 2017, and their 2017 salaries that could conceivably come off the books (not taking into account guys they just plain cut):

Edelman: $5.7m
Amendola: $3.0m
Slater: $1.6m
Burkhead: $3.2m
Lewis: $1.5m
Bolden: $695k
Solder: $11.2m
Fleming: $1.8m
Waddle: $1.1m
Ninkovich: $2.5m
Ealy: $904k
Van Noy: $1.1m
Butler: $3.9m
Ebner: $1.2m
Coleman: $615k
King: $615k

FWIW, that's almost $40 million right there that could come off the books after 2017. I think some of these guys are basically locks to come off the books: Amendola, Lewis, Solder, Fleming, Ninkovich, Butler. Those guys alone would total $23.9 million. Enough to cover JG.

However, a number of guys have contacts structured to give them huge pay increases in 2018. Namely:

Brady: from $14m to $22m (+$8m)
Hogan: from $2.9m to $3.5m (+$0.6m)
Cooks: from $1.5m to $8.5m (+$7m)
White: from $1.8m to $2.5m (+$0.7m)
Cannon: from $3.3m to $6.0m (+$2.7m)
Branch: from $3.7m to $4.7m (+$1.0m)
Guy: from $2.6m to $3.1m (+$0.5m)
Hightower: from $5.3m to $9.1m (+$3.8m)
McCourty: from $11.0m to $11.9m (+$0.9m)
Gilmore: from $8.6m to $12.6m (+$4.0m)
Ghost: from $4.5m to $5.0m (+$0.5m)

Those increases come to $29.7 million, which means they're back to where they were (and then some).

There will also be dead money coming off after 2017. About $1.6 million. Helpful, but not really a huge difference-maker in terms of making space for JG and TB together.

So to keep JG would require them to basically let all their UFAs go (including Butler...ouch), and also cutting and/or restructuring a ton of guys. One piece of good news is that the Patriots have more than $9 million in cap space right now, which, if they don't use it, will mean that they have that much more to play with for 2018.

It would be a helluva lotta expensive to let a bunch of those quality players go in order to keep JG in a backup role. But the Patriots have worked hard the past two seasons or so building up such incredible depth that they probably could afford to lose them and still be really good. They're rebuilding the OL with young guys, so losing Solder probably isn't a killer blow. Gilmore is here as a #1 corner, so losing Butler after 2017 probably can be handled. Edelman and Amendola going would be painful, but a receiving corps of Cooks, Mitchell, Hogan, and Hawking is pretty damned good. I'm sure they could afford to lose Nink and Van Noy without too much pain. Burkhead and Lewis going is handled by having White and Gillislee. You get the idea.

They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.

I'd love to see Miguel do a professional analysis of this instead of my amateur hack job.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

It looks like we will carry over a lot of unused cap into next year, which will help

 

[bbobbo]

They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.

maybe structure garoppolo's contract similar to gronk's--base it on playing time in the early years, with a fairly high base amount. that way if garoppolo does end up playing significant minutes whether due to brady's retirement or injury, he'll end up being compensated like a starter. if not, he'll be paid handsomely as a backup.

(edited to change starting point of assumptions)
.

 

[mosslost]

Jimmy G is not going to stay to back up and not take as much $ as he can. Pats are not going to franchise him either, I am pretty sure anyway.

 

[ivanvamp]

Jimmy G is not going to stay to back up and not take as much $ as he can. Pats are not going to franchise him either, I am pretty sure anyway.

You may be right, but that has nothing to do with this thread. This thread is based on the presumption that, incredibly, he stays with the Pats and BB knows he has to pay the man for staying.

 

[mgteich]

1) As of now, we would start 2018 with about $45M in cap space ($30M plus $15M rollover). This is includes contracted players at contracted amounts.

2) The dead cap cost of Brady leaving after 2018 is $7M. This might be increased a bit with a Brady restructure.

3) A new Garappolo contract could have a relatively low 2018 cap cost, regardless of the AAV. The key items are guaranteed money and bonus. First year salary can be $1M.

CONCLUSIONS

1) The team can afford to franchise Garappolo, with final decisions to be made later.

2) A long-term contract for Garappolo could be signed with Brady as the 208 starter.

3) Garappolo could be kept under the franchise tag until the July 15 deadline (as Cousins is now). He could even be on the 2018 roster. Personally, I'd rather use the money elsewhere if Garappolo won't sign long-term and no one is willing to trade before the draft.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats are in great shape cap-wise for 2017. Not a problem. But with all the JG speculation going on in several other threads, I thought it would be good to have a thread dedicated to the financial implications of keeping BOTH Brady and JG. Since, of course, that IS one of the possible scenarios out there.

In 2018, JG is a UFA, and Brady is scheduled to make $22m. At that point, if Brady is playing well and they want to keep JG through the end of Brady's contract, they have to either franchise JG (guaranteeing he stays), or work out a long-term deal with JG. Brady's contract is up after 2019, so JG would likely not be looking at a starting job with NE until 2020. He may have ZERO interest in that, but then again, who the heck knows. Either way, it will cost big $$ to keep him, and that means dedicating a HUGE portion of the Patriots' salary cap to the QB position.

Let's assume a $168 million salary cap (that's what spotrac.com uses) for 2018 and 2019. It probably will be adjusted somewhat from that, but let's go with it.

Brady alone will comprise 13% of the salary cap. The franchise figure for JG as a QB will likely be about $22 million as well (it's $21.2m for 2017). That would be $44 million reserved just for TB and JG.

Here are some guys who are free agents after 2017, and their 2017 salaries that could conceivably come off the books (not taking into account guys they just plain cut):

Edelman: $5.7m
Amendola: $3.0m
Slater: $1.6m
Burkhead: $3.2m
Lewis: $1.5m
Bolden: $695k
Solder: $11.2m
Fleming: $1.8m
Waddle: $1.1m
Ninkovich: $2.5m
Ealy: $904k
Van Noy: $1.1m
Butler: $3.9m
Ebner: $1.2m
Coleman: $615k
King: $615k

FWIW, that's almost $40 million right there that could come off the books after 2017. I think some of these guys are basically locks to come off the books: Amendola, Lewis, Solder, Fleming, Ninkovich, Butler. Those guys alone would total $23.9 million. Enough to cover JG.

However, a number of guys have contacts structured to give them huge pay increases in 2018. Namely:

Brady: from $14m to $22m (+$8m)
Hogan: from $2.9m to $3.5m (+$0.6m)
Cooks: from $1.5m to $8.5m (+$7m)
White: from $1.8m to $2.5m (+$0.7m)
Cannon: from $3.3m to $6.0m (+$2.7m)
Branch: from $3.7m to $4.7m (+$1.0m)
Guy: from $2.6m to $3.1m (+$0.5m)
Hightower: from $5.3m to $9.1m (+$3.8m)
McCourty: from $11.0m to $11.9m (+$0.9m)
Gilmore: from $8.6m to $12.6m (+$4.0m)
Ghost: from $4.5m to $5.0m (+$0.5m)

Those increases come to $29.7 million, which means they're back to where they were (and then some).

There will also be dead money coming off after 2017. About $1.6 million. Helpful, but not really a huge difference-maker in terms of making space for JG and TB together.

So to keep JG would require them to basically let all their UFAs go (including Butler...ouch), and also cutting and/or restructuring a ton of guys. One piece of good news is that the Patriots have more than $9 million in cap space right now, which, if they don't use it, will mean that they have that much more to play with for 2018.

It would be a helluva lotta expensive to let a bunch of those quality players go in order to keep JG in a backup role. But the Patriots have worked hard the past two seasons or so building up such incredible depth that they probably could afford to lose them and still be really good. They're rebuilding the OL with young guys, so losing Solder probably isn't a killer blow. Gilmore is here as a #1 corner, so losing Butler after 2017 probably can be handled. Edelman and Amendola going would be painful, but a receiving corps of Cooks, Mitchell, Hogan, and Hawking is pretty damned good. I'm sure they could afford to lose Nink and Van Noy without too much pain. Burkhead and Lewis going is handled by having White and Gillislee. You get the idea.

They could do it, for sure, but man it is one hell of an expensive way to insure a good QB transition. Perhaps they could sign JG to a long-term deal that is backloaded. He makes $10m in 2018, $13m in 2019, and then like $28m moving forward, something like that.

I'd love to see Miguel do a professional analysis of this instead of my amateur hack job.

The complete anthithesis of the way BB has built this franchise would be to let a large number of starters and role players leave, and not have money to adequately replace them by spending it on a back up QB.

Also, why in the world would garoppolo stay a FIFTH and SIXTH year as a backup when I'm sure he believes he could start on many teams and at least a few of them would give him the chance?

Garoppolo's future in NE hinges on Brady retiring (almost zero chance of that) or falling apart in the next 9 months, going from best in the league to useless.

It's funny to me that the same people who are talking about 19-0 and winning the 3rd SB in 4 years are the same ones trying to ride the GOAT out of town to make sure we hang on to the unproven guy with some potential.

 

[BelichickFan]

Garoppolo's future in NE hinges on Brady retiring (almost zero chance of that) or falling apart in the next 9 months, going from best in the league to useless.

I don't expect this to happen (so don't misinterpret) but Brady wouldn't have to go from the best to useless for Belichick to make the tough decision. At his age if Brady went from the best to average that would likely be it. If he went from the best to just good that might be it too. Any significant sign of physical deterioration that wouldn't return would probably cause Bill to move on.

I expect Brady to not show that physical deterioration. But he doesn't have to drop to useless for Bill to look in JG's direction.

 

[XLIX]

maybe offer garoppolo a gronk-style tiered contract based on playing time in the early years, with a fairly high base amount. that way if garoppolo does end up playing significant minutes whether due to brady's retirement or injury, he'll end up being compensated like a starter. if not, he'll be paid handsomely as a backup.
.

Why in the world would Garoppolo agree to such a deal when he knows he would get more money from some other team AND be a starter on day 1?

 

[bbobbo]

The complete anthithesis of the way BB has built this franchise would be to let a large number of starters and role players leave, and not have money to adequately replace them by spending it on a back up QB.

Also, why in the world would garoppolo stay a FIFTH and SIXTH year as a backup when I'm sure he believes he could start on many teams and at least a few of them would give him the chance?

Garoppolo's future in NE hinges on Brady retiring (almost zero chance of that) or falling apart in the next 9 months, going from best in the league to useless.

It's funny to me that the same people who are talking about 19-0 and winning the 3rd SB in 4 years are the same ones trying to ride the GOAT out of town to make sure we hang on to the unproven guy with some potential.

Why in the world would Garoppolo agree to such a deal when he knows he would get more money from some other team AND be a starter on day 1?

You may be right, but that has nothing to do with this thread. This thread is based on the presumption that, incredibly, he stays with the Pats and BB knows he has to pay the man for staying.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't expect this to happen (so don't misinterpret) but Brady wouldn't have to go from the best to useless for Belichick to make the tough decision. At his age if Brady went from the best to average that would likely be it. If he went from the best to just good that might be it too. Any significant sign of physical deterioration that wouldn't return would probably cause Bill to move on.

I expect Brady to not show that physical deterioration. But he doesn't have to drop to useless for Bill to look in JG's direction.

I disagree to the extent that the mental and knowledge portion of Brady's game would require his skill to become awful before his play became average.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I understand you responded to him with that, but your original post was

maybe offer garoppolo a gronk-style tiered contract based on playing time in the early years, with a fairly high base amount. that way if garoppolo does end up playing significant minutes whether due to brady's retirement or injury, he'll end up being compensated like a starter. if not, he'll be paid handsomely as a backup.

These two aren't mutually exclusive. That is to say, we can talk about Garoppolo on the team in 2018 *and* say why would he ever agree to the deal that you proposed?

The initial premise -- and the only one that makes sense short of shipping Brady out after the 2017 season -- is that the only way to keep Garoppolo in 2018 is to use the franchise tag on him. If I were Jimmy, why would I resign with the Patriots for any cheap deal to be the backup when I can get Mike Glennon+ money next year to start? I'd happily take franchise tag money to sit on the bench, but that's it.

 

[Ring 6]

You may be right, but that has nothing to do with this thread. This thread is based on the presumption that, incredibly, he stays with the Pats and BB knows he has to pay the man for staying.

It has everything to do with this thread. JAG isn't sticking around as a backup for his 5th and 6th years.

 

[Ring 6]

I understand you responded to him with that, but your original post was



These two aren't mutually exclusive. That is to say, we can talk about Garoppolo on the team in 2017 *and* say why would he ever agree to the deal that you proposed?

The initial premise -- and the only one that makes sense short of shipping Brady out after the 2017 season -- is that the only way to keep Garoppolo in 2018 is to use the franchise tag on him. If I were Jimmy, why would I resign with the Patriots for any cheap deal to be the backup when I can get Mike Glennon+ money next year to start? I'd happily take franchise tag money to sit on the bench, but that's it.

Why would he accept the tag money to sit when as you say he could get glennon money to play.

The pats may play chicken with the tag but there is no way they open the season with a 22 mill backup QB.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It's funny to me that the same people who are talking about 19-0 and winning the 3rd SB in 4 years are the same ones trying to ride the GOAT out of town to make sure we hang on to the unproven guy with some potential.

JG is unproven, but bill did not trade him for a reason. We could have had a king's ransom for him but ultimately declined all offers.

And no one wants brady out. People are just being realistic as to what a 41-42 year old QB will do. Some folks who want him around until 45 think he will stay at an MVP level until then, which is not realistic. Possible, sure, but unlikely. And people don't want to lose JG either if he's going to be a stud.

It's not an easy decision either way. I trust bill to make the right call.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Why would he accept the tag money to sit when as you say he could get glennon money to play.

The pats may play chicken with the tag but there is no way they open the season with a 22 mill backup QB.

Certainly he shouldn't sign his tag until after July 15, that's for sure. But after that date? He's playing a game of chicken with the Pats too - hoping that they'd trade him / cut him while risking his salary by continuing to hold out.

Regarding "there is no way they open the season with a 22 mill backup QB" -- that's fine, but the premise of this thread is a hypothetical where it can happen.

 

[Ring 6]

JG is unproven, but bill did not trade him for a reason. We could have had a king's ransom for him but ultimately declined all offers.

Why would you assume that reason is to get rid of the GOAT at what is almost his peak?
You do not know what was offered.

And no one wants brady out. People are just being realistic as to what a 41-42 year old QB will do. Some folks who want him around until 45 think he will stay at an MVP level until then, which is not realistic. Possible, sure, but unlikely. And people don't want to lose JG either if he's going to be a stud.

If you can't have both there is no question which one to keep.

It's not an easy decision either way. I trust bill to make the right call.

The right call at this point is stalling.
If Brady falls apart or walks away he can try JAG and see what he can do.
Otherwise you just don't sit Tom Brady for jimmy garappolo.

 

[ivanvamp]

It has everything to do with this thread. JAG isn't sticking around as a backup for his 5th and 6th years.

No it doesn't, Andy. There are other threads to talk about the relative likelihood of JG staying here as a backup. Go talk about that there. This thread is for the expressed purpose of talking about the financial feasibility of the Patriots paying him to stay.

It isn't really that hard. If you don't want to talk about THIS subject, go away. If you want to talk about what you apparently want to talk about, go talk about it in the threads where THAT is being discussed. I would like for THIS thread to not be littered with yet another debate about whether or not JG would stay.

 

[Ring 6]

Certainly he shouldn't sign his tag until after July 15, that's for sure. But after that date? He's playing a game of chicken with the Pats too - hoping that they'd trade him / cut him while risking his salary by continuing to hold out.

Regarding "there is no way they open the season with a 22 mill backup QB" -- that's fine, but the premise of this thread is a hypothetical where it can happen.

A hypothetical that involves degrading the entire rest if the roster which really is not a valid hypothetical.

 

[Ring 6]

No it doesn't, Andy. There are other threads to talk about the relative likelihood of JG staying here as a backup. Go talk about that there. This thread is for the expressed purpose of talking about the financial feasibility of the Patriots paying him to stay.

You decide where I post?
It's completely valid because the player needs to agree to stay when he is a free agent.

It isn't really that hard. If you don't want to talk about THIS subject, go away.

Wrong. If YOU don't want to talk about my post, don't. You have free will.

If you want to talk about what you apparently want to talk about, go talk about it in the threads where THAT is being discussed. I would like for THIS thread to not be littered with yet another debate about whether or not JG would stay.

Then don't respond.