Brady's last year as a Patriot?

[Tony2046]

No new ground covered and all based on the assumption that BB has decided to keep Jimmy. Not a thread worth starting.

.....again and again.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

These thread only serve one purpose: populating my ignore list.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with the original poster. If the Pats decide to keep Garoppolo (I am still not convinced he won't be traded in the next few weeks though), there is a very real chance that this is Brady last year as a Patriot.

I know some people have this delusion that Garoppolo will take back up money to wait for the opportunity to start for the Patriots in 2019 or beyond because it is better to ride the bench here than start for a bad team, but that is a pipe dream. The only way Garoppolo is here in 2018 as a back up is either under the franchise tag or the Pats pay him a Brock Osweiller or better type of deal.

There is little chance that both Garoppolo and Brady will both be on the Patriots in 2018 because that would be way too much money for the QB position.

I don't buy the idea that Belichick would rather have Garoppolo for this year only as insurance for Brady and won't trade him for a first round pick because of it. No back up QB for one year is worth the 12th pick in the draft.

Now there is a possibility that Garoppolo won't get traded because we all misjudged the market for him and the best offer the Pats have gotten for him is far less than we think. In that case, Garoppolo could stay in 2017 and Brady could be here in 2018.

 

[luuked]

Luuked: "The problem with people like you..."

This sort of rhetoric clearly shows "the problem with people like you," Luuke.

Misrepresenting a guy's statements so that you can insult the resultant straw man is childish.

There is no strawman happening anywhere. You have people citing "we can have certain Browns picks" as it is a fact which is laughable. We know nothing about the reality behind trade offers except for speculation by alleged insiders. That specific poster I responded to was already using the completely flawed argument that "we could potentially have the #1 pick" to make a point that BB has bigger plans for JG.

It's intellectually lazy and if something happens during the season I can already smell the same kind of morons arguing that BB blew it by not trading JG for #12 so we could draft whatever player conveniently has a breakout season as a rookie.

Also please do something for your reading comprehension because I didn't construct any strawmen and also didnt misrepresent anyones view. I mocked the stupidity of the post.. which is pretty deserved given the lack of basic reasoning in most of his arguments.

 

[JetFan79]

 

[luuked]

I don't think the team is even sure enough to say that. Adam Schefter's report about why they don't want to trade Garopollo would lead me to conclude the Patriots are not 100% either way, and that is why they'd like to keep Garopollo, because of the value of an extra year of evaluation and the development of the two players (improvement in the case of Garopollo, sustainability in the case of Brady). His report certainly was not limited to Garopollo as a 2017 backup. It also referenced Tom Brady's age and that his high level of play at 39 is "unchartered territory." That phrase it very carefully chosen by the source. I would not be surprised if the team hoped they were drafting Brady's replacement with JG in 2014, but that was three years ago and before they saw Brady defy the aging process, at least at this point. And complicating it further is that JG appears to be (by the market for him and reluctance to trade him, his brief performance last year, and comments made by the team about his value) the successor the Patriots were hoping for, but Brady is improving as he ages and playing the position at an all-time peak level. These two events can in fact exist independently.

It seems like people cannot stand or cannot accept the idea that the team doesn't have a plan written in stone, even though Schefter's gets every report right, and the Patriots actions/asking price from the Browns is exactly what he foretold...a gigantic price to force their hand into an early decision, or else they'll gladly keep JG for 2017. That's exactly how it's played out. If the Patriots were entirely sure Garopollo is gone after this season, they would take whatever high offer they could get for him and stock up with valuable draft picks. Conversely, if they were entirely sure Brady is gone after this season, they wouldn't even entertain trading Garopollo, no matter the price. Their trade value approach to Garopollo (would like to keep him but open to an insane deal) definitely implies they see Brady as the quarterback beyond next season but are not entirely committed either.

The Patriots have always been patient and hesitant to act rashly, a virtue that has been instrumental to their success. The way they approach free agency, with idea that better to pass on a signing than make it without having all the information, is an MO. As an example, they let their own free agents test the market, even though they risk losing the player. That way they are not extending a player too early and also know the true market before making their offer. So, when it comes to the (by far) most important position on the field, they need to be sure to get this one right, and an extra year to evaluate both Brady and Garopollo is a great luxury to have. They very well may be 80% decided that Brady is the decision, but when you consider risk:reward at the QB position and Brady's age, it doesn't make sense to trade Garopollo a year too soon. Any other position, maybe, but not quarterback...and draft picks don't mean much when you don't have a long-term answer at the QB position.

I totally agree with what you have written. The Pats are in a great position to sit back, do nothing and see what happens. The idea that there are some deals behind the scenes or bigger plans is just laughably stupid.

 

[Tony2046]

I don't have a link, I heard him say it in an interview. He said in practice JG does everything as well as Brady (paraphrasing) -- runs the offense, gets in the right play, makes the throws. At the time, it was speculated he was just trying to pump up JG's trade value. Now, with apparently taking JG off the trade market entirely? That statement has a whole new meaning.

How do you assume that? JG is not off the trade market until the time window for that market has passed.

How do we know BB doesn't value Brissett and why did he keep him on the roster last year?

(Sorry @robertweathers I did not reply to your response in one of the many other JG threads. I read your response which prompted me to rewatch the week 3 Texans game (great game. Crowd was super pumped) so that I could give you a better reply which of course I forgot to do.)

The point of the whole thing is winning SB's. You don't trade away (or whatever) a SB winning QB with the hopes JG can do it for you in the future. Winning a SB is really hard. Not week 2 Miami Dolphin hard in which no team has any tape on you or on any of the Scar O line changes from the previous year but week 19 hard in which every player is leaving everything on the field because everything is on the line hard.

Another thing. It is not Brady's physical traits that win the SB's rather it is his cognitive ability to read a defense, make quick pre snap and post snap decisions. It often comes down to making one less bad decision than the team you're playing. Can JG do that?

I think there is just as much potential for JG being traded as there was two months ago. As Luuked and others have stated multiple times in multiple other threads it comes down to value. If a team offers up a boatload of picks he'll be gone if not he'll stay on another year as injury insurance.

 

[luuked]

I agree with the original poster. If the Pats decide to keep Garoppolo (I am still not convinced he won't be traded in the next few weeks though), there is a very real chance that this is Brady last year as a Patriot.

So you think Brady will retire after this season ?

 

[sb1]

Thanks for the link. And there you have BB saying there's isn't a difference in practice between the two, that it's "seamless."

IIRC he talked up Tebow too, I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that.

The most likely scenario is that the Patriots know that the boatload of draft picks for a JG trade isn't materializing - and why would it- and decided on the value of having a capable backup JG in 2017 at a very reasonable price...and then he goes elsewhere after the Patriots draft Brady's replacement in 2018.

 

[PatsBoy12]

This is a strange thread. You guys are responding to your recollection (or misconstrual) of what somebody else said a week ago, not to what the OP actually had to say. But then, this sort of thing is endemic these days: it is much easier to natter away at our own devised caricature of one with whom we disagree than it is to do the work of understanding what he is saying, then responding to that.

The truth is that there are sound arguments on both sides and that it is not clear at this point what the outcome of the matter will be. To cultivate an understanding of the issue is to cultivate an understanding of both sides of the argument. Otherwise we just get a pissing contest in the guise of discussion.

While I absolutely agree with this, I still must disagree with the OP's overall premise. Unless Brady has a meteoric decline, this upcoming season will not be his last in NE.

BB has a ton of respect for Brady. And while I do believe it doesn't exempt Brady from being traded or released at some point, I believe that threshold will be much greater than it's been for everyone else - Seymour, Vrabel, etc. He nudged Bru into retirement. That was a huge sign of BB's admiration and respect for a player. I believe that's the kind of thing BB would attempt with Brady first if it came to that. Ultimately, though, BB would move forward if Brady remained steadfast on playing after his inevitable decline.

Alas, none of us know what will actually happen. Let's just enjoy that Brady is still playing like the best ever. Let's enjoy that we have a roster that looks poised to make it to the SB again. Let's enjoy the ride.

 

[oldrover]

I'll add -- that's my conclusion looking at the situation. I could be wrong, sure. But if BB keeps JG this year, he's wanting him to be the QB and that only happens if you trade #12. BB isn't the type of guy to be left holding an empty hand. He won't let JG walk (assuming he wants to keep him) for merely a one year luxury.

2017-2018 will not be his last season as a Patriot. Even experts give him 2 more.

No new ground covered and all based on the assumption that BB has decided to keep Jimmy. Not a thread worth starting.

Curious to me is JG's silence.
If I was a backup QB with starting aspirations, and teams were eager to trade for me now.....I wouldn't passively sit by...I'd be vocal about my intentions hoping to expedite my exit.
But JG remains silent...which forces me to ask..."What does JG know?"

Please God, make it stop!!!

.....again and again.

These thread only serve one purpose: populating my ignore list.

I agree with the original poster. If the Pats decide to keep Garoppolo (I am still not convinced he won't be traded in the next few weeks though), there is a very real chance that this is Brady last year as a Patriot.

I know some people have this delusion that Garoppolo will take back up money to wait for the opportunity to start for the Patriots in 2019 or beyond because it is better to ride the bench here than start for a bad team, but that is a pipe dream. The only way Garoppolo is here in 2018 as a back up is either under the franchise tag or the Pats pay him a Brock Osweiller or better type of deal.

There is little chance that both Garoppolo and Brady will both be on the Patriots in 2018 because that would be way too much money for the QB position.

I don't buy the idea that Belichick would rather have Garoppolo for this year only as insurance for Brady and won't trade him for a first round pick because of it. No back up QB for one year is worth the 12th pick in the draft.

Now there is a possibility that Garoppolo won't get traded because we all misjudged the market for him and the best offer the Pats have gotten for him is far less than we think. In that case, Garoppolo could stay in 2017 and Brady could be here in 2018.

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks for the link. And there you have BB saying there's isn't a difference in practice between the two, that it's "seamless."

Well that's it. BB said "seemless". It's over. Shut down the trade threads. Lock them up.

 

[TruthSeeker]

No but there might soon be another thread on it.

Thank you for giving me my daily dose of Brady/JAG talk - in a new thread no less! I was rather hoping for an original idea as well...

 

[Simpelton]

I've been riding the don't-trade-Garoppolo train all offseason and even I think this is nonsense. There's no reason to end this relationship now, and unless something actually happens this year to change that, there's no reason to end it at the end of this season either.

I know that having this situation where the quarterback could disappear at any time without warning is alarming and we'd rather have the young up and comer than rest our entire franchise on a statistically improbable event like Brady continuing to be elite deep into his 40's, but let's be honest about one thing -- Brady could have gotten hurt or declined anytime in the last roughly 10 years and it wouldn't have been an abnormal football event. Unless he retires, I just don't see the run ending in a timeline convenient for Garoppolo to be our next starter unless Belichick has a reason to force it to happen. Right now he just doesn't.

2 years is absolutely reasonable to expect TB12 to retain a high level of play. My only point is that you can't just assume it will happen with no backup plan, because the franchise IS resting itself on an event that the odds were against ever happening in the first place, so you'd better be prepared for what happens when the improbabilities that keep Brady effective this late into his career end and the law of averages reassert itself. Right now that means Garoppolo. In 2 years it means having drafted a worthwhile project quarterback sometime in the late rounds or pick up a UDFA with the right skillset and attitude (a Kirk Cousins type would be ideal) to wait in the wings behind your aging superstar and develop them behind Garoppolo and Brissett or another solid career backup.

 

[XLIX]

With all due respect, "experts," aren't BB. And his thoughts on the matter are the only ones that matter. Also, BB has a LONG HISTORY of letting go of high profile players. Do I need to name them? Of course, none have been Tom Brady. But if BB turns his back on potentially the #1 overall pick (as reported today from profootballtalk) he's not doing that to keep a backup QB for one season.

You're entitled to your own opinions, however ridiculous they are. You not entitled to your own facts.

We have no idea what, if anything, Belichick has been offered for Garoppolo and PFT did NOT report that he turned down the #1 overall. The article to which you refer is nothing but speculation about what the Browns could/should do but nowhere in it does it say they offered NE the #1 orvthat BB would turn down the #1.

 

[zydecochris]

I don't buy the idea that Belichick would rather have Garoppolo for this year only as insurance for Brady and won't trade him for a first round pick because of it. No back up QB for one year is worth the 12th pick in the draft.

IMHO, this depends on future circumstances. The most likely scenario next year is that Brady plays the full year at a top level, and in this case one could argue that we would have been better off trading Garoppolo.

However, there is another scenario (hopefully very unlikely) where Brady suffers an injury that puts him out for a good part of the season. With the Patriots loaded for bear for another Super Bowl this year, in that case I would argue that keeping Garoppolo was the right move. Even if the Patriots Super Bowl chances go down somewhat with Brady's injury, IMHO we would still have a decent chance (certainly better than most teams) at another ring.

Insurance always seems too expensive until you need it.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Every couple years Patsfans gets an infestation of posters eager to rid the team of TFB, 2009/10, 2014. Thankfully BB is not a moron.
Threads like this almost make me yearn for the deflated footballs threads. Almost.

 

[BobDigital]

Though I don't think it will happen some fans here I believe think it is plain not possible. The fact they are keeping JAG shows how much the value him and/or how close of an eye they have on Brady for any signs they might want to pull the plug and move on.

BB has always tried to get rid of guys too early rather than too late and we assume Brady is not one of those but we don't know for sure. If BB feels Brady will slip soon after this year I could see him trading him. I don't think it happens but some people think it couldn't happen if Brady has a good year. I don't think that is automatically the case.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is an open Board. People are free to post whatever they want as long as it is done in a civil, non-disruptive manner and does not contain what would generally be regarded as offensive material or images.

My problem with the endless Brady-Garoppolo speculation is that in the dozens of threads and thousands of posts that have been dedicated to the topic, there hasn't been a single new idea since February.

Also, there has been no new information, unless we count as "information" what is basically wild-ass speculation by Florio, Reiss, Schefter et al. about what is completely unknowable since it exists solely in the head of Bill Belichick.

@Ian, maybe it's time to create a "Brady-Garoppolo Scenarios" Forum. That way, people who want to post about what would charitably be described as a "well-discussed" topic can do so and those who don't want to hear another word on the topic until something actually happens can co-exist in a peaceful manner.

 

[fnordcircle]

Brady is doing a lot of damage to his legacy by not stepping out of the way like the armchair GMs want.