Brady's last year as a Patriot?

[PatriotDynasty99]

Before everyone throws stones at me, consider....

* Apparently, BB has decided to keep his backup QB and NOT trade him for what would be a huge amounts of picks, meaning he truly, truly values JG.

* After this season, no matter what happens, JG will be a free agent and if BB let's him walk, it means he got a season of having a quality backup QB who rarely played (likely scenario) and that would be it. Unless...

* He either gives JG the franchise tag or signs him to a new long term deal which of course would only happen if JG thought he was going to be the NE QB the following season; otherwise, JG would never sign a long term deal.

* So, let's consider the possibility that JG is given the franchise tag for a season. That means paying him more than Tom Brady and committing HUGE bucks to the QB position. Does anyone in his right mind think that's going to happen? Of course not.

* So keeping JG comes down to this: choosing between Tom Brady and JG. After this season, you can't have both. And you've (BB) already turned your back on multiple draft picks to keep JG so logically doesn't it make sense to keep the guy who's younger?

* As crazy as it seems, keeping JG this season reveals what's likely to happen the following season: Belichick keeping JG long term, making him the starter, and moving on from Tom Brady. I'm just not sure how it plays out any other way. What would a franchise give up for a 40 year old QB -- even one as good as Tom Brady? You might get a late 1st on a contending team.

* Tom Brady clearly wants to play 5 more seasons. Sticking with JG this year is a HUGE clue that that isn't likely to happen. Some will surely be very angry with BB. But does anyone doubt Belichick's fearlessness when it comes to doing what he thinks is best for the franchise? Bottom line here: enjoy this season. Hopefully it ends in another Super Bowl victory because Brady's last season as a Patriot could be this one.

 

[luuked]

Seriously, can we stop with this garbage ?

We have been through so many variations of the same basic premise already. Brady is going to play for another 2-3 years barring a serious injury or sudden, catastrophic decline of arm strength.

Jimmy will stay this year unless someone (*hint, hint* Browns) offers up a unprecedented amount of resources before the draft and will be franchised next year to be traded away. The only scenario in which Jimmy becomes the heir is if Brady gets injured.

At this point I am looking back fondly on the last two offseasons where we had deflategate to righteously distract people from posting stuff like that.

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

Seriously, can we stop with this garbage ?

We have been through so many variations of the same basic premise already. Brady is going to play for another 2-3 years barring a serious injury or sudden, catastrophic decline of arm strength.

Jimmy will stay this year unless someone (*hint, hint* Browns) offers up a unprecedented amount of resources before the draft and will be franchised next year to be traded away. The only scenario in which Jimmy becomes the heir is if Brady gets injured.

At this point I am looking back fondly on the last two offseasons where we had deflategate to righteously distract people from posting stuff like that.

Why is this garbage? You can't see the connection here of keeping JG and saying no to a harvest of draft picks? Why would BB say no to that UNLESS he has plans for JG being the starting NE QB? It only makes logical sense. BB isn't stupid, he knows he can't have both Brady and JG for more than one season. He's keeping JG for a reason. Life (and the NFL) is about choices. And Belichick is making one. And not for the short term, but the long term.

 

[luuked]

Why is this garbage? You can't see the connection here of keeping JG and saying no to a harvest of draft picks? Why would BB say no to that UNLESS he has plans for JG being the starting NE QB? It only makes logical sense. BB isn't stupid, he knows he can't have both Brady and JG for more than one season. He's keeping JG for a reason. Life (and the NFL) is about choices. And Belichick is making one. And not for the short term, but the long term.

We have been through this again and again... but you keep misreading the entire situation. Jimmy will be kept as a cheap backup this year in case Brady goes down. It is as simple as that - he is insurance. You don't want to have a single point of failure on a stacked team unless you are a fan of what happened in 2008.

Garoppolo will not give any favours to the Patriots and sign a friendly extension especially because he will get a ****ton of money on the open market or via extension to the team he will be traded to next year. The timelines for a Brady/Jimmy transition just don't work out any reasonable way you look at them. Unless something happens this year to Brady.

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

I'll add -- that's my conclusion looking at the situation. I could be wrong, sure. But if BB keeps JG this year, he's wanting him to be the QB and that only happens if you trade #12. BB isn't the type of guy to be left holding an empty hand. He won't let JG walk (assuming he wants to keep him) for merely a one year luxury.

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

We have been through this again and again... but you keep misreading the entire situation. Jimmy will be kept as a cheap backup this year in case Brady goes down. It is as simple as that - he is insurance. You don't want to have a single point of failure on a stacked team unless you are a fan of what happened in 2008.

Garoppolo will not give any favours to the Patriots and sign a friendly extension especially because he will get a ****ton of money on the open market or via extension to the team he will be traded to next year. The timelines for a Brady/Jimmy transition just don't work out any reasonable way you look at them. Unless something happens this year to Brady.

I think you're the one misreading the situation (and actually dead wrong). BB is smarter than that. BB is looking beyond this year in keeping JG. Any smart GM would. Besides, why would you dismiss the idea of JG staying and Brady leaving? Why is that so far fetched? Didn't GB do it with Rodgers/Favre and San Fran do it with Young/Montana?

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

2017-2018 will not be his last season as a Patriot. Even experts give him 2 more.

 

[PatriotDynasty99]

2017-2018 will not be his last season as a Patriot. Even experts give him 2 more.

With all due respect, "experts," aren't BB. And his thoughts on the matter are the only ones that matter. Also, BB has a LONG HISTORY of letting go of high profile players. Do I need to name them? Of course, none have been Tom Brady. But if BB turns his back on potentially the #1 overall pick (as reported today from profootballtalk) he's not doing that to keep a backup QB for one season.

I think no one wants to talk about it because it's a painful thought. But if you connect the dots, they very easily lead you to the logical conclusion that Belichick has plans for JG, plans that extend well beyond just one season.

 

[Thelonious]

The scenario here, though it would be painful to see, in entirely possible, given BB's unwavering adherence to his "what's best for the team: philosophy. I am not at all saying that JG would at this point be the better qb option in any way: that is not at all demonstrated to this point, But clearly the judgment that JG might be so at some point has been made. If this judgment holds, it becomes - for a hardheaded guy like our BB - a question of when - taking into account Brady's inevitably declining skills and consequent trade value (ouch) - the tipping point is reached.

 

[luuked]

I think you're the one misreading the situation (and actually dead wrong). BB is smarter than that. BB is looking beyond this year in keeping JG. Any smart GM would. Besides, why would you dismiss the idea of JG staying and Brady leaving? Why is that so far fetched? Didn't GB do it with Rodgers/Favre and San Fran do it with Young/Montana?

What happened with Favre or Montana has zero bearing on what will happen to Brady. None. History doesn't matter in that context at all.

You don't seem to be around a BB coached team for a while otherwise you'd not seriously think that what you suggest is BB being smart. It's like a few actually insightful and informed people on this board said, BB is running the team like a fund always looking for value. JG on a rookie contract as backup QB ? That's value and definitely more worth than a couple of picks because it eliminates the biggest possible single point of failure on a roster who is a big favorite to repeat this year. If someone steps up in the next two weeks and offers a trade package that is big enough to be considered more valuable - JG will be gone.

. But if BB turns his back on potentially the #1 overall pick (as reported today from profootballtalk) he's not doing that to keep a backup QB for one season.

The problem with people like you is that you hear a blog or some insider talking that the number 1 pick might be in play and suddenly believe it like it is a fact. In reality we don't even know if the Browns offered their #12 pick but I am sure it will be thrown around like a fact by some soon enough.

I think no one wants to talk about it because it's a painful thought. But if you connect the dots, they very easily lead you to the logical conclusion that Belichick has plans for JG, plans that extend well beyond just one season.

There are no dots that lead to that conclusion at all except in your head. In fact if we go by your modus operandi and trust media reports then lets go back to the news that the Pats and Brady are working on another extension. How does this fit into your narrative ?

 

[Thelonious]

Luuked: "The problem with people like you..."

This sort of rhetoric clearly shows "the problem with people like you," Luuke.

Misrepresenting a guy's statements so that you can insult the resultant straw man is childish.

 

[supafly]

* Apparently, BB has decided to keep his backup QB and NOT trade him for what would be a huge amounts of picks

Wait? According to whom? The posters on this site and some media members? How do you have any idea as to whether or not it would be "huge amounts of picks?" This is everything we heard about Matt Cassel all over again, except Cassel actually led the team to an impressive 11-5 record over a 16 game season, whereas Garoppolo became injured in a little over 5 quarters.

* So, let's consider the possibility that JG is given the franchise tag for a season.

Like the aforementioned situation with Cassel, who was tagged and traded? If they do use the tag on Garoppolo, it doesn't necessarily mean he's staying, and any ideas you have about a backup QB refusing to sign the franchise tag for 24+ million guaranteed dollars is really stretching things. Much more proven players looking at much bigger offers sign the tag and play. As much as some people like to bring up this possibility, how often do we see a player sit out the entire year and leave all of that money on the table? Name the players in the past 10 years who have left that kind of money on the table. Actually, try and name some players who left 50% of that kind of money on the table. You couldn't. 24 million dollars for an unproven backup QB would be insane.

BB isn't the type of guy to be left holding an empty hand.

Again though, lots of assumptions are being made about what kind of offers Belichick has fielded, and he surely isn't going to be left holding an empty hand. If Garoppolo is going to bring anything close to some of these projections, we'd qualify for a 3rd round comp pick. As a matter of fact, it could help to explain why Belichick made some bigger moves this year, because next year we may focus on more of our own vs. bringing in outsiders. Either way, he isn't going to be left holding an empty hand.

 

[supafly]

Luuked: "The problem with people like you..."

This sort of rhetoric clearly shows "the problem with people like you," Luuke.

Misrepresenting a guy's statements so that you can insult the resultant straw man is childish.

I'm not meaning to get in the middle of your statement because that was aimed at luuked, but citing pro football talk means absolutely nothing, and to take it one step further, I didn't see anything more than very basic speculation being thrown around in a "what if" scenario. They actually suggested that the #1 pick could be used to pry Kirk Cousins away too, which would make more sense. There were multiple names in the (very speculative) article, which was about trading away the top pick for a QB.

There was certainly no report that the #1 overall pick was definitely in play. As a matter of fact, just the day before PFT stated that "if Garoppolo leaves it will be with a job....done," insinuating that he really hasn't done ****.

 

[supafly]

The problem with people like you is that you hear a blog or some insider talking that the number 1 pick might be in play and suddenly believe it like it is a fact. In reality we don't even know if the Browns offered their #12 pick but I am sure it will be thrown around like a fact by some soon enough.

To take that thinking even further, how many of the past 12-15 picks taken at the #12 spot have actually worked out? Last I saw it was only a few. We can assume that the odds would be higher if Belichick were the guy making the pick, but it's certainly nothing close to the sure thing some are making it out to be.

 

[Thelonious]

Wait? According to whom? The posters on this site and some media members? How do you have any idea as to whether or not it would be "huge amounts of picks?" This is everything we heard about Matt Cassel all over again, except Cassel actually led the team to an impressive 11-5 record over a 16 game season, whereas Garoppolo became injured in a little over 5 quarters.


Like the aforementioned situation with Cassel, who was tagged and traded? If they do use the tag on Garoppolo, it doesn't necessarily mean he's staying, and any ideas you have about a backup QB refusing to sign the franchise tag for 24+ million guaranteed dollars is really stretching things. Much more proven players looking at much bigger offers sign the tag and play. As much as some people like to bring up this possibility, how often do we see a player sit out the entire year and leave all of that money on the table? Name the players in the past 10 years who have left that kind of money on the table. Actually, try and name some players who left 50% of that kind of money on the table. You couldn't. 24 million dollars for an unproven backup QB would be insane.

Again though, lots of assumptions are being made about what kind of offers Belichick has fielded, and he surely isn't going to be left holding an empty hand. If Garoppolo is going to bring anything close to some of these projections, we'd qualify for a 3rd round comp pick. As a matter of fact, it could help to explain why Belichick made some bigger moves this year, because next year we may focus on more of our own vs. bringing in outsiders. Either way, he isn't going to be left holding an empty hand.

This is a strange thread. You guys are responding to your recollection (or misconstrual) of what somebody else said a week ago, not to what the OP actually had to say. But then, this sort of thing is endemic these days: it is much easier to natter away at our own devised caricature of one with whom we disagree than it is to do the work of understanding what he is saying, then responding to that.

The truth is that there are sound arguments on both sides and that it is not clear at this point what the outcome of the matter will be. To cultivate an understanding of the issue is to cultivate an understanding of both sides of the argument. Otherwise we just get a pissing contest in the guise of discussion.

 

[supafly]

This is a strange thread. You guys are responding to your recollection (or misconstrual) of what somebody else said a week ago, not to what the OP actually had to say. But then, this sort of thing is endemic these days: it is much easier to natter away at our own devised caricature of one with whom we disagree than it is to do the work of understanding what he is saying, then responding to that.

The truth is that there are sound arguments on both sides and that it is not clear at this point what the outcome of the matter will be. To cultivate an understanding of the issue is to cultivate an understanding of both sides of the argument. Otherwise we just get a pissing contest in the guise of discussion.

I think your second paragraph is spot on and I've actually mentioned that myself before, but:
1) I don't think any of the responses have made it a strange thread, and I certainly don't think it's any stranger than the other 100 threads we've seen on the matter.

2) You could certainly take some of your own advice in your first paragraph (no disrespect intended by any means), since the OP most certainly did throw around some wild assumptions about a) passing on "huge amounts of picks," b) Garoppolo somehow refusing to sign the franchise tag and leaving close to 25m on the table, c) Belichick somehow being left with an empty hand and receiving no compensation whatsoever, and most importantly--d) the suggestion that this will be Brady's last season if Garoppolo isn't traded by the end of October.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The only scenario in which Jimmy becomes the heir is if Brady gets injured.

I don't think the team is even sure enough to say that. Adam Schefter's report about why they don't want to trade Garopollo would lead me to conclude the Patriots are not 100% either way, and that is why they'd like to keep Garopollo, because of the value of an extra year of evaluation and the development of the two players (improvement in the case of Garopollo, sustainability in the case of Brady). His report certainly was not limited to Garopollo as a 2017 backup. It also referenced Tom Brady's age and that his high level of play at 39 is "unchartered territory." That phrase it very carefully chosen by the source. I would not be surprised if the team hoped they were drafting Brady's replacement with JG in 2014, but that was three years ago and before they saw Brady defy the aging process, at least at this point. And complicating it further is that JG appears to be (by the market for him and reluctance to trade him, his brief performance last year, and comments made by the team about his value) the successor the Patriots were hoping for, but Brady is improving as he ages and playing the position at an all-time peak level. These two events can in fact exist independently.

It seems like people cannot stand or cannot accept the idea that the team doesn't have a plan written in stone, even though Schefter's gets every report right, and the Patriots actions/asking price from the Browns is exactly what he foretold...a gigantic price to force their hand into an early decision, or else they'll gladly keep JG for 2017. That's exactly how it's played out. If the Patriots were entirely sure Garopollo is gone after this season, they would take whatever high offer they could get for him and stock up with valuable draft picks. Conversely, if they were entirely sure Brady is gone after this season, they wouldn't even entertain trading Garopollo, no matter the price. Their trade value approach to Garopollo (would like to keep him but open to an insane deal) definitely implies they see Brady as the quarterback beyond next season but are not entirely committed either.

The Patriots have always been patient and hesitant to act rashly, a virtue that has been instrumental to their success. The way they approach free agency, with idea that better to pass on a signing than make it without having all the information, is an MO. As an example, they let their own free agents test the market, even though they risk losing the player. That way they are not extending a player too early and also know the true market before making their offer. So, when it comes to the (by far) most important position on the field, they need to be sure to get this one right, and an extra year to evaluate both Brady and Garopollo is a great luxury to have. They very well may be 80% decided that Brady is the decision, but when you consider risk:reward at the QB position and Brady's age, it doesn't make sense to trade Garopollo a year too soon. Any other position, maybe, but not quarterback...and draft picks don't mean much when you don't have a long-term answer at the QB position.

 

[Galeb]

No new ground covered and all based on the assumption that BB has decided to keep Jimmy. Not a thread worth starting.

 

[Minitron]

Do you have high expectations in Brissett to lead this team to 10-14 wins this season if Brady goes down? I think Jimmy could do that. BB showed this offseason that he values proven players over picks. So this shouldn't be a surprise.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think anything is possible.

As it stands now TB12 isn't going anywhere.

A lot can happen in 12 months.

BB is letting this play out.