Brady Set for "Drastic" Decline According to Some Assistants

[Joker]

Please give us a list of, say, 10 aging elite QBs who's play fell off a cliff for reason other than injury.

I'm thinking this "simpleton" character has to be the spawn of an illicit liaison between Raymond Berry and a drunk stripper at the '85 Super Bowl.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm thinking this "simpleton" character has to be the spawn of an illicit liaison between Raymond Berry and a drunk stripper at the '85 Super Bowl.

To be fair to simpleton, a lot of people buy into the myth of the cliff. However, one doesn't need to look far for proof that it doesn't really hold water. ESPN just had that "ten best since 1978" list, and we can look at that.

1. Brady - TBD
2. Manning - Suffered neck injury years before he retired. Signs of decline were there for years, but that decline started slowly and ramped up at the end. He still managed to win a SB in his final year. QB ratings leading up to his lost season: 121.1/104.1/101/98/95/99.9/91.9. Post-op, he had a couple of years where things went well (105.8/115.1), but the arm strength was fading. The next year (101.5) saw him losing more and more arm strength over the course of the season. His final year (67.9) saw his arm decline to the point where he was throwing balloons. Still, for as much as I love to give Manning ****, he managed some excellent play in his final years, before things finally fell apart.
3. Montana - Injury after injury after injury. He went from 1985 to 1994 without playing a full 16 game season. His final 4 seasons gave him QB ratings of 89/118.4/87.4/83.6. Even after getting traded to the Chiefs, he managed to get that team to the AFCCG and then a wild card game, before sailing off to retirement.
4. Elway - Elway's decline has been well documented, yet his QB rating actually went up in his later years (Thanks TD!). From 1983-1992, he only had one season with a QB rating above 80. From 1993-1998, his lowest QB ranking was 85.7. In his final season, he was able to put together a rating of 93.0, put up the 4th highest completion percentage of his career, have the 3rd best TD/INT ratio of his career, and win his second consecutive Super Bowl. Yes, his skills were eroding, but there was nothing overnight about it.
5. Rodgers - TBD
6. Marino - Leg injuries sapped his game and turned him into a statue, but his decline was over a 5 year period. 90.8/87.8/80.7/80.0/67.4. AYA during that time 7.2/7.3/6.6/6.1/5.2
7. Brett Favre - Up and down at the end of his career QB ratings of 92.4/70.9/72.5/95.7/81/107.2/69.9. Was his last year a big drop from the year before? Damn skippy, but it was the end of a 7 year period of inconsistency and decline.
8. Steve Young - retired because of concussion. In the two years before he was forced to quit, his QB ratings were 104.7 and 101.1, and he was second team All-Pro (AP) in both of those years.
9. Drew Brees - TBD
10. Dan Fouts - his last 5 years.... QB rating 92.5/83.4/88.1/71.4/70, TD/INT ratio 20-15/19-17/27-20/16-22/10-15, etc...

So, of the 10 QBs ESPN listed as the 10 best since 1978, only one of the seven retirees even merits an "off a cliff" argument, and that's Favre. "Off a cliff" happens, but it's nowhere near the common happening it gets made out to be, at least for the elite level QBs.

 

[Simpelton]

I don't see it this year though. Brady looks like he is in great shape. I guess it all depends on how fast he can heal from the bumps and bruises. But if they did have to shut Brady down for a game for two, it wouldn't be the end of the world.

The one thing I'm concerned about, and this is a minor concern, is if Brady does start to feel his age and needs to take a game off and let Garoppolo have some fun, but they don't do it because there's a 0 in the loss column.

I can't see Brady sitting out at all until we take our first loss of the season whether it would be beneficial or not, he's not the kind of player to ever want to let another quarterback have any snaps he could have for himself, and if not resting Brady means we take an L in the postseason or Brady gets hurt in a fatigue-related injury, that would be a sad way to end a promising campaign.

There is a danger of chasing an undefeated season with such an outlier at quarterback exactly because the pressure will be on Brady to play every game whether he's ready or not. Most likely he'd be able to stand up to the schedule anyway, he always has after all. But it is a thing to keep an eye on.

 

[Simpelton]

To be fair to simpleton, a lot of people buy into the myth of the cliff. However, one doesn't need to look far for proof that it doesn't really hold water. ESPN just had that "ten best since 1978" list, and we can look at that.

1. Brady - TBD
2. Manning - Suffered neck injury years before he retired. Signs of decline were there for years, but that decline started slowly and ramped up at the end. He still managed to win a SB in his final year. QB ratings leading up to his lost season: 121.1/104.1/101/98/95/99.9/91.9. Post-op, he had a couple of years where things went well (105.8/115.1), but the arm strength was fading. The next year (101.5) saw him losing more and more arm strength over the course of the season. His final year (67.9) saw his arm decline to the point where he was throwing balloons. Still, for as much as I love to give Manning ****, he managed some excellent play in his final years, before things finally fell apart.
3. Montana - Injury after injury after injury. He went from 1985 to 1994 without playing a full 16 game season. His final 4 seasons gave him QB ratings of 89/118.4/87.4/83.6. Even after getting traded to the Chiefs, he managed to get that team to the AFCCG and then a wild card game, before sailing off to retirement.
4. Elway - Elway's decline has been well documented, yet his QB rating actually went up in his later years (Thanks TD!). From 1983-1992, he only had one season with a QB rating above 80. From 1993-1998, his lowest QB ranking was 85.7. In his final season, he was able to put together a rating of 93.0, put up the 4th highest completion percentage of his career, have the 3rd best TD/INT ratio of his career, and win his second consecutive Super Bowl. Yes, his skills were eroding, but there was nothing overnight about it.
5. Rodgers - TBD
6. Marino - Leg injuries sapped his game and turned him into a statue, but his decline was over a 5 year period. 90.8/87.8/80.7/80.0/67.4. AYA during that time 7.2/7.3/6.6/6.1/5.2
7. Brett Favre - Up and down at the end of his career QB ratings of 92.4/70.9/72.5/95.7/81/107.2/69.9. Was his last year a big drop from the year before? Damn skippy, but it was the end of a 7 year period of inconsistency and decline.
8. Steve Young - retired because of concussion. In the two years before he was forced to quit, his QB ratings were 104.7 and 101.1, and he was second team All-Pro (AP) in both of those years.
9. Drew Brees - TBD
10. Dan Fouts - his last 5 years.... QB rating 92.5/83.4/88.1/71.4/70, TD/INT ratio 20-15/19-17/27-20/16-22/10-15, etc...

So, of the 10 QBs ESPN listed as the 10 best since 1978, only one of the seven retirees even merits an "off a cliff" argument, and that's Favre. "Off a cliff" happens, but it's nowhere near the common happening it gets made out to be, at least for the elite level QBs.

if you think I was arguing for the cliff, you didn't read my post.

 

[Tony2046]

Cliff's happen even in posts.

Point 1 - OK, I'm listening.

Point 2 - Slight elaboration there but OK.

Point 3- Ehhhh that's stretching it a bit.

Conclusion: WTF??

 

[Clonamery]

Cliff's happen even in posts.

Point 1 - OK, I'm listening.

Point 2 - Slight elaboration there but OK.

Point 3- Ehhhh that's stretching it a bit.

Conclusion: WTF??

Or...if the poster sounds like Cliff Clavin it's reached the post "cliff."

 

[Tony2046]

Or...if the poster sounds like Cliff Clavin it's reached the post "cliff."

 

[bruce_w]

To be fair to simpleton, a lot of people buy into the myth of the cliff. However, one doesn't need to look far for proof that it doesn't really hold water. ESPN just had that "ten best since 1978" list, and we can look at that.

1. Brady - TBD
2. Manning - Suffered neck injury years before he retired. Signs of decline were there for years, but that decline started slowly and ramped up at the end. He still managed to win a SB in his final year. QB ratings leading up to his lost season: 121.1/104.1/101/98/95/99.9/91.9. Post-op, he had a couple of years where things went well (105.8/115.1), but the arm strength was fading. The next year (101.5) saw him losing more and more arm strength over the course of the season. His final year (67.9) saw his arm decline to the point where he was throwing balloons. Still, for as much as I love to give Manning ****, he managed some excellent play in his final years, before things finally fell apart.
3. Montana - Injury after injury after injury. He went from 1985 to 1994 without playing a full 16 game season. His final 4 seasons gave him QB ratings of 89/118.4/87.4/83.6. Even after getting traded to the Chiefs, he managed to get that team to the AFCCG and then a wild card game, before sailing off to retirement.
4. Elway - Elway's decline has been well documented, yet his QB rating actually went up in his later years (Thanks TD!). From 1983-1992, he only had one season with a QB rating above 80. From 1993-1998, his lowest QB ranking was 85.7. In his final season, he was able to put together a rating of 93.0, put up the 4th highest completion percentage of his career, have the 3rd best TD/INT ratio of his career, and win his second consecutive Super Bowl. Yes, his skills were eroding, but there was nothing overnight about it.
5. Rodgers - TBD
6. Marino - Leg injuries sapped his game and turned him into a statue, but his decline was over a 5 year period. 90.8/87.8/80.7/80.0/67.4. AYA during that time 7.2/7.3/6.6/6.1/5.2
7. Brett Favre - Up and down at the end of his career QB ratings of 92.4/70.9/72.5/95.7/81/107.2/69.9. Was his last year a big drop from the year before? Damn skippy, but it was the end of a 7 year period of inconsistency and decline.
8. Steve Young - retired because of concussion. In the two years before he was forced to quit, his QB ratings were 104.7 and 101.1, and he was second team All-Pro (AP) in both of those years.
9. Drew Brees - TBD
10. Dan Fouts - his last 5 years.... QB rating 92.5/83.4/88.1/71.4/70, TD/INT ratio 20-15/19-17/27-20/16-22/10-15, etc...

So, of the 10 QBs ESPN listed as the 10 best since 1978, only one of the seven retirees even merits an "off a cliff" argument, and that's Favre. "Off a cliff" happens, but it's nowhere near the common happening it gets made out to be, at least for the elite level QBs.

Then why did they all retire? This is a foolish stat argument, like the old "chances of getting attacked by a shark scam".

 

[Deus Irae]

Schitzophenia. Brady will be MVP and lead Pats to Superbowl one minute, aging man in decline the next

I know you're joking, but that's actually how I expect it to go down. It happens that way to a lot of aging quarterbacks -- on the old form one minute, way off it the next.

If you want to see it that way, the first 2 quarters of the Superbowl may indeed be a sign of decline, even though Brady was able to correct and turn in an epic performance in the end. His short passes were off, his reads were just slightly off and he gave up a pick. These are all the things Tom Brady does not do. Then he fixed it, but this was still a thing that happened.

Remains to be seen if there's more to it than just two bad quarters, of course, but it is something to keep an eye on. At the moment it almost comes down more to what you want to believe than anything else.

if you think I was arguing for the cliff, you didn't read my post.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Only decline I've noticed the last 5-10 years is from the media.

They forgot how to report the facts without sensationalism and over the top bs. I get they have to make a living and that times are changing as clicks and views are their bread and butter.

Doesn't mean I have to like it or read/watch it. So I don't. It's kind of hard to be offended if you are not reading the material they put out. I don't think a lot of oeople get that aspect.

 

[JJR4884]

If you want to see it that way, the first 2 quarters of the Superbowl may indeed be a sign of decline, even though Brady was able to correct and turn in an epic performance in the end. His short passes were off, his reads were just slightly off and he gave up a pick. These are all the things Tom Brady does not do. Then he fixed it, but this was still a thing that happened.

On the contrary, Brady has yet to have a decent first half in all the superbowls he has played in, especially the first quarter. Big stage, usually playing against an opponent they don't see often. While I'm not making excuses for him, I also find it hard to make that sort of argument based off a couple quarters in the biggest game of the year.

Brady's execution throughout the entire year has been exceptional. That holds a lot more water than the first half of the SB. You need a bigger sample size (much larger actually) before any of us can consider the inevitable decline, which will definitely happen. Just not sure when. Lets not forget that last season he went 28-2 for TD-INT, which is insane.

 

[Ivan]

Greatest " hot take " of all time.

 

[Ivan]

I definitely want him to get to 45 now and if it weren't for health concerns I would root for 50, just to shove it as far up the collective asses of the doubters as is humanly possible. And imo the only thing that will ultimately stop him is long term health repercussions and his family. Imo he will go out on top whenever he chooses to hang them Up, it will never be because of Suckage.

 

[PatriotsReign]

I will say, I saw a HUGE decline in Brady's play in the second half of the super bowl!

 

[PatriotsReign]

I definitely want him to get to 45 now and if it weren't for health concerns I would root for 50, just to shove it as far up the collective asses of the doubters as is humanly possible. And imo the only thing that will ultimately stop him is long term health repercussions and his family. Imo he will go out on top whenever he chooses to hang them Up, it will never be because of Suckage.

You like Brady's chin dimple, dontcha?

I want Tom to play until he's 50 so he ends up divorced and I marry Giselle and end up in the big house in Brookline.

Hold my O'Doul's and watch me

 

[Tony2046]

I definitely want him to get to 45 now and if it weren't for health concerns I would root for 50, just to shove it as far up the collective asses of the doubters as is humanly possible. And imo the only thing that will ultimately stop him is long term health repercussions and his family. Imo he will go out on top whenever he chooses to hang them Up, it will never be because of Suckage.

All I'm going to say is that age does matter. It really does. No matter how much you try to spin it.

For example: During Training camp.

Brissette - 1 interception
Jimmy (the HOF backup) - 15 interceptions.
Brady - 0 interceptions.

Now you may say that Brady's zero int's means he has been the better QB thus far in TC but you're wrong.

While Brady has been making all the safe throws, Jimmy has been testing the coverage, experimenting with the new players and basically building the DB confidence on the team.

Anyways I think if JG keeps throwing those team building int's Brady may be out the door before week 1.


JUST KIDDING <<<<<( that's for @shmessy )

 

[Joker]

I wish there was a backhand slap smiley on our list ...I'd post 45 of them for that last heart attack post...thought you'd gone over to the "cluck" side, Tony....geez, warn us next time will ya?

 

[Tony2046]

I wish there was a backhand slap smiley on our list ...I'd post 45 of them for that last heart attack post...thought you'd gone over to the "cluck" side, Tony....geez, warn us next time will ya?

Don't worry. The Garoppolites have officially kicked me out of their club.

 

[Joker]

Garropolites...there's a joke gestating within this descriptor...give me some time

 

[shmessy]

Don't worry. The Garoppolites have officially kicked me out of their club.

I root for all the players on the New England Patriots to strengthen the entire team. I guess some people crave conflict to make their lives interesting - - but the cult of personality for categories such as "Garropolites" or "Bradyites" is a waste of time. I trust Bill Belichick to make the decision to put the best player out there at each position for the team.

If you want to see what it looks like when there is internecine fighting and a unit that doesn't know how to row in the same direction, look at Washington, DC.

.

.