I am arguing the other side of the argument. So it may look like I am more down on Boutte. But I like the guy.
Once the Pats trade for Brown, he becomes the third best WR on this team. And unless they want to move Doubs to the slot, he has no place in the starting line up. And he isn't going to be happy being a back up in a contract year. He isn't a guy the Pats have to have on the roster with AJ Brown there.
But Diggs (83.3% catch rate) and Hollins (70.7%) were both in the 70% catch club. So was Stevenson (86.5%). So was Henderson (83%). So was Hooper (80.8%). If you want to count him Chism was perfect 3 for 3. Henry was about 68% and Pop was 67%. But both those guys had some issues with drops at times this season. Only Williams had poor or even average catch percentage (47.6%). Maye is so accurate that if he continues to be that way this year, he can make a lot WRs part of the 70% club. Boutte's catch rate was in line with the rest of his receivers. It wasn't an abnormality.
If they keep Boutte, I won't be upset one bit. If they trade him away, I won't be upset one bit. He is a good receiver. But he is going to be a back up on this team. And with the addition of Brown, the receiver is corp is very deep and strong. It doesn't need Boutte. He would be more of a luxury than a need.
But the problem is Boutte doesn't want that. And with his past history of maturity issues, you probably don't want him on the team and unhappy. His rookie year, he literally walked out of practice and told the team he was retiring.
Okay, sorry to chase my tail on who's who and who's making which argument.
I agree, good problems to have. And I'll add, re: Drake Maye, wow. Again.
I know we had a soft schedule, but wow.
2023
- DeMario Douglas: 62.0% catch rate (49 receptions on 79 Targets)
- Hunter Henry: 68.9% catch rate (42 receptions on 61 Targets)
- Kendrick Bourne: 67.3% catch rate (37 receptions on 55 Targets)
- DeVante Parker: 60.0% catch rate (33 receptions on 55 Targets)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 61.7% catch rate (29 receptions on 47 Targets) [1, 2, 3, 4]
That's Mac and Cheeeeese Jones, of course. Nice to have Pop as an apples-to-apples comparison, even if he was second year vs. 4th year last year. And the other apples-to-apples piece, Henry, ticked a tiny bit up from 68.9% to 70%.
We'll see how much change there is vs. higher level of competition, but 2025 Drake numbers give me a tingly feeling for now.
So yeah, everyone can kind of win if Boutte wants out now, assuming we get something to work with out of it. If it's him saying "what do I want to get injured for if I'm looking at the free market next year," that's a little different. Re: the slot, he's an outside-the-numbers guy, Doubs is him plus 10 yards per game, whereas Pop is a slot guy through and through. Slot guy gets to be on the field even with two outside guys. I don't know why we gamble on Doubs and Boutte becoming what Douglas
is.
Now, can Boutte win the battle over Doubs even when we just dropped a bunch of cash on Doubs, assuming the unproven premise that Brown is the new, younger Diggs, who from now on won't have injury problems?
Here's Doubs, 2025:
- Receptions: 55
- Targets: 85
- Receiving Yards: 724
- Touchdowns: 6
- Yards per Catch: 13.2
Advanced Metrics (via PFF)
- Yards After Catch (YAC): 163
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT): \(13.2\) yards
- Total Drops: 3
His yards are way higher, but every other stat is similar to Boutte or less impressive. TD the same, lower catch percentage, lower yards per catch, though we are chalking up Boutte's reliability to Maye and I'm sure we're chalking up all Boutte's abilities to the soft schedule to an extent.
We're paying Doubs 68M-80M over 4 years to be Boutte plus 10 yards per game. If you don't mind throwing to him a few extra times to get the 10 yards.
Now, I get that we're crossing our fingers and hoping that Doubs blossoms into something more, I guess? And we think that we've seen all there is to see in Boutte?
Or is it something to do with Boutte being and appearing threatened by a new receiver we've already got a commitment to?
I dunno. Seems that he doesn't want to take any chances of getting hurt, which incidentally looks the same as him saying he's displeased. Shrug.
As of right now, and I know I'm repeating myself, until the ink is dry on Brown, we've got two young outside guys with a shot at making some noise, assuming we don't sign up Diggs for one more tour.
In "win now" terms, that's obviously backsliding, and as of now, Keshon & we & the internet think it won't happen. But even if we were to sign up Diggs one more year,
he's gone sooner than later unless there's avocado ice cream or the blood of ritually sacrificed virgins involved.
So yeah, all I am saying here is that if we assume the facts not in evidence -- that Brown is a NE Patriot and the rest is maneuvering and commentary -- a trade makes sense. But again, it just isn't the done deal we act like it is. If we don't know the Brown answer and don't move on to another answer at "WR1" (e.g., the unlikely Diggs return,) we still need (not want, need) Boutte, and a hatful of hope, to not slide backwards this year. (With Kyle Williams the only low percentage target in the bunch. Oh, I know, long balls only, but that's a little specialized to suddenly become a WR1.)
All this stuff looks great right now and looks like ****e as soon as guys get injured. You're absolutely stacked at a position until a guy goes down, then you're on the warning track. There just aren't big enough rosters.
So yeah, I guess to be nice and to snag a smidgen of upside while it's available, you move Boutte, preferably
after the need exists to walk into talks saying "Oh we've
got another good outside receiver, watch him shine without Diggs opposite him. We can take or leave this AJ Brown guy."
So the "trade Boutte" thing can be a theme until the Brown talks are over, at least.
Sorry if all this has been said, pretty much everything has been. This is what procrastination looks like.
