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Where do you have him projected?
Rough value around 5th. I think Shelvin will be coveted bc that part of the IDL class is thin.
I have no qualms with that.
What's up Pats fans? I hope everyone had a great Christmas, is doing well and as healthy as can be during these crazy times! It's been an unbelievable, trying year for most. I wish everyone a great 2021!
The pats had a rough year as well. We're no longer in playoff contention and have several big holes. More on that in a few ...
Few days off so wanted to start this while I had the time. Welcome to my 2021 pre-draft thread! Prospect breakdowns & talks. What they do well, could improve on. Best fits for them, our team. Potential trade ideas, mock drafts. Who's your favorite prospect? Favorite for the Pats?
*Any questions about a prospect please ask!* Strengths/Concerns/issues, player fit ...
Speaking of our NEP, I brought up the idea of a Patriot-Type Prospect thread a few months ago in the draft forum and decide to just make a Pats Big Board for @patsfanfromoversea and others when they expressed some interest. A few others asked me before and during the season as well.
Testing plays a decent part and this board will change but this is what I put together and working off. Think it's a good baseline. I put a value on the prospects (this will be my 11th year grading, grades are in draft forum)
It's no secret we have a small board (50 - 150) prospects I'd assume. Maybe A little less or more depending on the year/class but I guess it's closer to a 75-100 most years. Anyway, with that said I'll keep my board under 130 and as close to 100 as possible come draft time.
Had a little luck last year (2020) and previous years (Wynn, Wino, Crossen, Sony, Stid, Froholdt, Dawson and a few others)
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Before we get any further I want to pay respect to some of the best posters to write on site and the man himself @Ian for putting this community together. It's different and a lot more personal than what's out there on social media.
Guys like ... @Box_O_Rocks @rookBoston @manxman2601 @PonyExpress @reamer @Off_The_Grid @patchick @dryheat44 @mayoclinic @midwestpatsfan and many, many others that have made this place great. With that here's my board and value groupings. First submitted by @Mark Morse . Resubmitted by Box. Re-resubmitted by @BaconGrundleCandy
I wanted to post something about "Value Grouping", which is the term I use to rationalize BB's draft day strategy. I posted something about this immediately after the 2003 draft.
That draft was incredible, but it left me totally confused. I couldn't see any logic in the trading up and down. The strategy seemed haphazard, and yet it produced very reliable results. It could not have been blind luck that they filled all their positions of need at ideal value spots in the draft. How did they do it?
I don’t know if this is something that is widely discussed in the Nation, or if it's just a pet theory of my own. I haven't read anything about it, or if I have, I've forgotten that I did. I think BB has probably explained the concept behind his draft strategy to the media, although Tom Curran's recent article makes no mention of this type of targeting. I’m not sure how explicit BB’s been in describing how it works.
I thought, I’d post my understanding of how the Pats approach the draft, because so far as I know it is clearly not an intuitive or typical strategy.
-------------------------------
Here’s how it works:
BB, SP and the scouting team identify a group of players who would provide roughly the same value for the team. It is absolutely critical that the staff “believes†in all the players in the value group, without exception. All of them have to be guys that the staff would feel good about drafting and would want to have on the team.
Once a player makes it into a value group, that means he is being targeted for the draft. Before the draft, the staff identify what their key needs are, and decide how they plan on filling those needs, using the value groupings they’ve defined. Generally speaking, it is possible to say, “this group of players should go in the early 1st round, this group of players should go in the late 2nd, early 3rd.â€
On draft day, as the players in a targeted value group start coming off the board, the Pats lie in wait, patiently. The first players coming off the board for a given value group set the baseline value for that group. Once a value group is down to one or two players remaining, they trade into position to take the last guy in that group.
The downside is that by definition, you are taking the guy in each Value Group which the other teams think is the worst of the bunch. But if you’ve setup the board correctly, it shouldn’t matter. It is your own evaluation that counts, not the rest of the teams.
The upside is, you get good players for rock bottom prices. Most important, you eliminate (or at least dramatically reduce) the risk that you come away with absolutely nothing. Examples will help explain how this is possible, in practice ...
If you want to read more about the examples here's the link ...
Value Grouping - by rookBoston
Value Grouping Value Grouping - by rookBoston Submitted By: Mark Morse April 20, 2004 Resubmitted By: Box_O_Rocks February 9, 2006 Value Grouping Theory This was a message by rookBoston who posts on the PatsFans Draft Forum Messageboard. I was so impressed with this...www.patsfans.com
My 2021 PTP Big Board
Some of the draft principles I believe.
1)The draft is about finding about where value & need meet. You have to be able to set the board and place a value on a prospect in order to properly navigate and have a successful draft. If not you're reaching, drafting on specific need at the wrong time or getting a bad price.
2)Mitigating risk, especially with early picks. You absolutely have to gamble here and there. The draft isn't a blind crapshoot but there is a little gamble involved. Once and while you have take a shot but generally you want to mitigate risk all you can. Biggest way to do that is setting your board properly.
3)You go after your "types" for your "system". You're putting together a team. Again a family in some ways. It's not only about what happens on the field. It's also about practice/work ethic, film room, guys bonding-developing with each other. The "fit" is crucial.
4)Have a clear understanding of each draft as a whole. Each one is different but the same. Where the talent is, how deep/how much depth is in it, other team needs . What you need & have to work with. How many picks you have, your opponents have. Future picks, player trades ... Have an understanding of how you think it'll play out and how you can use to your advantage. This is where you're coming together as a group in the "war room" and going over every scenario and again how you can make it work for you're team. By draft time you should have a great sense & better feel about your approach. And really good feeling for what the public or market thinks and a good feel for each team individually.
5)More capital the better. More picks don't = more success. Ultimately you have to hit on the prospects. More picks = flexibility & ammo. The draft is about value but flexibility is a huge asset. In order to really maximize this you need to move up & down at times. Not all the time but it's a nice card to play. Flexibility in the draft is always nice and makes things easier. Picks for prospects, vets, future picks.
Back to this year's class. Overall this is a very deep draft imo. I'm guessing I'll have 10 -15 first round grades but a ton of 2nd-4th. Again testing plays a decent part in my final grade but after doing this for a little bit that's where I'm at with it. Deeper than top heavy in most positions. A lot of really good prospects though. It's a great year to have a lot of picks though!
Pats Picks (including comps) ...
1st
2nd
3rd
4th X 3
5th
6th X 3
7th
Top needs ...
QB, DL, LB, WR
NEP could go in a few different directions bc of how much ammo we have and the personnel situation we have in a few spots. We have enough picks to trade up for two first picks or three seconds. I'd love too see little aggression and land 2-3 top 60 prospects to really get this team back on track. We would still have a few nice shots in the mid rounds. Again any questions please ask.
