Barring Injuries, Is a Pats-Chiefs AFCCG Inevitable?

[A Defiant Goose]

I think the chiefs will fall a little bit back down to earth. Nothing guaranteed

 

[luuked]

Any chance we see Mahomes regress a little?

He will definitely regress. FO posted a QB ranking in terms of expected INTs vs. actual INTs of last year and he was the luckiest QB with many potential INTs dropped (12 actual INTs with 9 more dropped).

Historically speaking players with similar luck had a regression to the mean in the following years where the actual amount of turnovers matched up closer with the expected. Obviously he could buck a historic trend but I wouldn't put money on that.

Adjusted Interceptions 2018 | Football Outsiders

 

[TomPatriot]

Luck has retired. Colts are out as a contender. Chargers have key injuries (And their chokers.) I do think the Steelers are improved. But Tomlin holds them back.

Injuries can change things. But is this rematch nowca safe bet? Or is there another team lurking who could be dangerous? (Jags maybe with a competant QB & best defense?).

No, just no.

 

[Uptown]

No, because the Dolphins will be right there in the end...

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Certainly looks that way, if i were to predict right now. Then again this time last year I would have probably predicted NE vs JAX - from what I remember personnel wise they were about the same squad. KC has to prove themselves in terms of sustainability, they could completely flop for all we know and the be those 2018 Jags.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The two teams I am most worried about are Baltimore and Jacksonville.

The Jacksonville defense is tremendous and foles gives them better qb play.

Baltimore’s defense has something to prove after losing a lot of defensive guys last season, but Jackson looks like he is going to take year two leap that puts him in the same orbit as Mahomes.

The chargers are also extremely deep and talented. They are the wild card.

 

[TommyD4207]

Rumor has it that the Texans may trade Clownery.

BOB would screw NE in heartbeat and deal him to KC.

Unless they're trading 6 Jadeveon Clowneys, it won't make any difference.

 

[TommyD4207]

The Bills actually. I've been keeping an eye on them in the preseason. They seem to have a very balanced attack, they have an excellent run game and their young QB is rounding into shape. Their defense is usually pretty solid. If I had to pick a breakout team in the AFC this year, it's probably Buffalo.

Bills have been hovering on the verge of legitimacy for the last few years and if their QB can mature a bit and really start contributing, they are in a position to be competitive this year.

That quarterback is hot garbage.

 

[NormZauchin]

Browns will be there. That team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The league is going to give them some help with calls this season too. You wait and see. The hype train is full steam ahead.

The Browns have to deal with the curse of the the Belichick.

 

[supafly]

Baltimore’s defense has something to prove after losing a lot of defensive guys last season, but Jackson looks like he is going to take year two leap that puts him in the same orbit as Mahomes.

It’s August, so it’s only logical that we get a head start on fearing the Ravens, but I don’t think that anyone needs to concern themselves with the idea of Lamar Jackson being anything close to the kind of passer that Patrick Mahomes is.

 

[supafly]

The Browns have to deal with the curse of the the Belichick.

We don’t need to worry about the Browns.

@Soliel placed a curse on the entire state of Ohio.

 

[Biffins]

Every year some team “breaks out”. This is usually a combination of some talent on rookie contracts (cheap) maturing into terrific players and an easier schedule by virtue of facing the 3rd or 4th teams in opposing divisions. I have seen this story over and over and recent reminders include the Panthers, Falcons, Eagles etc. Each of these teams fell flat the subsequent years. The reason is losing players to Free Agency and/or putting some of those amazing rookies on long-term contracts which eat up a lot more cap space and then a tougher schedule having to face all 1st teams in opposing divisions.

Now some teams have stayed a force over multiple seasons, like the Seahawks before succumbing to this (they also had to pay up to lock all their stars), but it’s more likely than not that break-out teams revert to their mean.

I haven’t fully followed personnel changes and cap space development at Chiefs but I would guess they won’t make it to AFCCG or maybe even playoffs, and it will be another team that comes out of nowhere and that everyone will proclaim will be dominant for years to come.........

 

[Snooky97]

Teams have more tape on Mahomes this year, so they may be able to adjust better to what he does well and doesn’t do well. Will also depend on their schedule as well as I’m not sure who they have this season. They will definitely be in divisional playoffs at worst though, I think.

 

[kennyb]

No. Not at all inevitable. Probably well under 50% i'd guess.

Steelers or brownlians or whatever hot team makes a run. No guarantee ne is in it either.

 

[Tony2046]

Is there a top 10 list for the " once in a 100 years " QBs over the last 50 years??

 

[The Brandon Five]

Pats in the AFCCG is almost inevitable. As far as their opponent, that's always up for grabs.

 

[PatsDeb]

No. So many things can go wrong in an NFL season, it's hubris to count either team in as a foregone conclusion. I certainly hope it happens, however, and that the outcome is the same as last year.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I expect Mahomes to have a down year. Everything went right last year but some of his passes across his body 40 yards downfield are just ripe for a few more INTs this year

 

[DaBruinz]

Luck has retired. Colts are out as a contender. Chargers have key injuries (And their chokers.) I do think the Steelers are improved. But Tomlin holds them back.

Injuries can change things. But is this rematch nowca safe bet? Or is there another team lurking who could be dangerous? (Jags maybe with a competant QB & best defense?).

I think the Browns will have something to say about the Chiefs being in the AFCCG..

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The only sure bets in this World.....

death, taxes, and the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, everything else is a crap shoot