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Some Patriots News for this morning:
1) ESPN released its NFL Football Power Index for the upcoming season, looking at teams throughout the league while providing a projected win total for each club.
Based on whatever formula they’re using, they have the Patriots projected to win 8.19 – 8.9 games in 2025, tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who received the same projection.
The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles sit at the top of teams they’re projecting to have 10 or more wins, with Buffalo certainly being someone New England will obviously have to deal with twice this season.
However, when it comes to making the playoffs, ESPN’s formula wasn’t kind to the Patriots. It has them with just a 32% chance to make the postseason, ranking them 25th in the league, right behind Seattle (32.6%), Atlanta (33.4%), Dallas (34.5%), Arizona (36.5%), Indianapolis (36.9%), and Jacksonville (37.4%).
The top five Super Bowl favorites were interesting, with Philadelphia sitting on top with a 10.9% chance to win it all, followed by Kansas City (10.3%), Buffalo (9.6%), Baltimore (9.5%) and Detroit (7.8%). The Patriots were 24th on that list with a 0.8% chance, which was tied with Seattle.
The opportunity to make some noise this season should certainly be there, and the schedule makers at least set them up for success. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots have the second-easiest schedule behind the 49ers heading into 2025, followed by New Orleans, Atlanta, and Buffalo.
The first four games are definitely going to be critical, with the 2025 Patriots Schedule seeing things kick off at home against the Raiders to start the season on September 7th. But the week two match-up down in Miami will likely be the one that sets the tone even further. New England’s issues down in South Florida are well-documented, and the fact they’ve yet to beat Tua Tagovailoa is a streak that should hopefully come to an end this season.
After that, it’s two straight home games against both Pittsburgh and Carolina before a huge match-up on Sunday Night Football against Buffalo.
How that opening stretch plays out is going to be crucial to where they end up in 2025. If they can get off on the right foot to begin the season against Las Vegas and pull off an upset down in Miami, they’ll likely be able to hang against Pittsburgh even with Aaron Rodgers, and Carolina should be a winnable game.
That would open up the possibility for 4-0 or at least 3-1, which would already have them essentially where they finished the last two seasons in wins.
A win in the next week in Buffalo would be unbelievable. That would likely cause Bills fans to lose their collective minds, while also even setting up a situation where the Division might be in play. As it is, if Miami’s season goes the way many believe it might, the door might be open for Mike Vrabel’s football team to move ahead into that second slot. The Dolphins weren’t much farther ahead of New England when it came to ESPN’s projected win total, with the Dolphins sitting at just 8.3-8.6, three slots above the Patriots. They also have Miami with just a 38% chance to make the postseason.
Given some of their recent moves, along with the questions they still have, it’s a Dolphins team that probably faces the most pressure among the four teams heading into this season. That should work in New England’s favor, provided they can take care of business on the field.
Seeing Miami fall off, and if the Jets continue to struggle, it should be a two-team race within the AFC East if Vrabel’s club can keep pace and deliver a massive blow to their rival that early in the year. It would also make the December Week 15 match-up at home against the Bills one that would be absolutely electric.
Granted, that’s a lot of “ifs.” But the fact that we can even start to wonder just how far they might go is definitely better than where we were a year ago. And today marks just over two weeks before they hit the field for their first public training camp practice on July 23rd.
2) One area that is going to play into their success this year will be how New England’s new group of players adjusts coming off of what was definitely a busy offseason.
The Patriots turned over half their roster this offseason, which now has a defensive group that looks significantly different from what it was a year ago. Among the group of guys who are out were Deatrich Wise Jr. and Jonathan Jones, who left via free agency. Other moves included a trade that sent Davon Godchaux to New Orleans, while also parting ways with linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Sione Takitaki.
Over the offseason, they brought in linebackers Harold Landry, Jack Gibbons, and Robert Spillane, as well as signing defensive tackle Milton Williams and defensive back Carlton Davis. These are all guys who, on paper, should provide a pretty good nucleus to establish what Vrabel is looking to establish defensively.
Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi said during an appearance on NBC Sports Boston on Monday that the turnover on that side of the ball will make things interesting, especially depending on how long it takes for them to figure each other out.
“I was begging for them to do this last year and then they finally did it this offseason, they basically turned over half their roster, which, they needed to turn over half their roster,” said Giardi. “The problem in turning over half their roster is, these guys have to figure each other out and yes, Mike Vrabel brought in some of the Tennessee guys. You have a Jack Gibbons type, Spillane was with him in the very beginning at Tennessee, although he blossomed as a player in Vegas. So he has some sort of like, ‘Hey, this is how we do business.’ But I think it’s going to take a little while for them to actually understand what Mike wants, what Josh McDaniels wants offensively, and from all accounts, even though they said they’ve dumbed it down, doesn’t appear that the offense has been dumbed down. So there’s that part of the equation as well.”
“And Terrell Williams, their defensive coordinator, I know Mike’s a defensive guy, Terrell the DC hasn’t been here for two months. The word on the street is he’s going to be back in time for training camp, which is great news. Terrell’s earned this opportunity, it’s nice to have him get it, but now he’s got to integrate himself in with the group. It’s not Zoom anymore, You’re going to be face-to-face with this whole team.”
3) A key part to how far the Patriots go this season is clearly going to come down to the play of Drake Maye, who everyone is hoping will take a big step forward heading into his sophomore season.
However, Giardi made another interesting comment Monday night. He recently spoke to multiple defensive coordinators who faced Drake Maye last season, inquiring about their thoughts on the young QB, and one answer was eye-opening.
“I talked to three different defensive coordinators that faced him last year, two of them who will face him again this year, and one comment stood out to me. I said, ‘What did you think the first time that you played Drake?’ And this guys said, ‘Well, we knew he was a really talented athlete, but we didn’t think he could solve problems,’ And that’s not uncommon for rookies, right? So I said to him, ‘What did you think after you played him?’ He said, ‘We think he’s an even better athlete than we thought he was, we still don’t think he can solve problems.'”
“I think if you talk to the people at North Carolina, they felt like he did a good job of that with the Tarheels, this is a different level. He’s going to see different stuff. Now there’s more tape on him, he has tape on them as well, but I’m curious if that part of his game can be unlocked by Josh McDaniels because I think Josh is going to demand that he has that and that, to me, is a big part of taking that next step.”
The mental part of things is definitely something that McDaniels excels at, with Albert Breer having brought up previously the fact that he’s often in the quarterback’s ear up to the helmet communications cut off. He’s pointing out things and providing insight, which Breer said was key for the success we saw with Mac Jones previously in 2021 and Tom Brady talked about it years ago with Peter King as well.
As a result, it’s probably safe to say that Maye will have an edge in problem-solving this season, which should hopefully take that concern off the table.
4) There’s been some speculation in recent weeks when it comes to the future of Stefon Diggs in New England, and it appears that Diggs is certainly serious about his performance heading into the 2025 season.
After the incident with Diggs earlier this offseason, which definitely felt like it put a strain on things, he and Vrabel reportedly had a discussion to hopefully put all of that to bed. That talk, which Diggs wouldn’t comment on, likely included expectations for the veteran given the culture Vrabel’s trying to instill here.
However, Greg Bedard went so far last week to wonder if Diggs could be someone the Patriots might even explore moving at some point this preseason, which might have indicated that there’s still some concern internally with the wideout ahead of the season.
It’s possible Diggs might know he still has a lot to prove and that Vrabel wasn’t kidding. Based on his social media posts, Diggs has been seen continuing to work hard, and there was another sign that happened over the weekend that could indicate he’s locking in further to his efforts on the field.
It appears he recently split from his high-profile girlfriend, Cardy B, with the singer apparently having scrubbed every photograph of Diggs off of her social media over the weekend.
Diggs, meanwhile, spent his weekend with Maye and a host of other players, including DeMario Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kendrick Bourne, Kyle Williams, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Hunter Henry, who all got some work in ahead of training camp.
The best way to quiet any speculation is to perform on the field, and it definitely seems that’s where Diggs head is at. That’s a good sign for a Patriots team that is facing the challenge of getting back into contention, and having Diggs in the right mindset will absolutely play a big part in helping them get there.
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