Alex Barth's post-OTAs "way too early" roster projection

[WinstonSmith]

Hollins is the best blocking WR, so he is on the field for the running plays (roughly 50%), plus some of the passing plays. Williams will not have a high snap count than Hollins.

Agreed, Hollins had the most WR snaps for the Bills in 2024 because of his blocking prowess and his efficiency as a receiver. He'll have more snaps than many folks would expect, and will have a relatively low snap to target ratio, but will do well with his limited non blocking opportunities .

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I’ll say it out loud:

I’m fine with both Baker and Polk getting cut if this staff thinks they can’t play.

You don’t keep bad players because of draft capital expended…

You learn the lesson and draft differently next time.

Sunk cost fallacy.

 

[BobDigital]

2 years, $8.4M, with $3.5M guaranteed is not an insane overvaluation IMO.

IDK... I just did some quick math and his 4.2M makes him the 52nd highest paid WR in the NFL right now. I know the guaranteed money matters too, it is hard to quantify that as easily.

Another way to look at it is who was signed for less...

Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett and Valdes-Scantling were all signed for less cash as far as cap hit and guaranteed money. I know part of the reason they wanted Hollins was his size. leadership and run blocking... can would anyone really argue the above 3 aren't better WRs that could have been had cheaper? This isn't to say Hollins is the worst deal ever made. But i do think looking at these contracts it clearly isn't the best deal by a mile.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Agreed, Hollins had the most WR snaps for the Bills in 2024 because of his blocking prowess and his efficiency as a receiver. He'll have more snaps than many folks would expect, and will have a relatively low snap to target ratio, but will do well with his limited non blocking opportunities .

Agreed. This is quite simple but multiple posters can not see it.

 

[Zuma]

The active 4 need to the best WR's we can put on the field.

This ^

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

IDK... I just did some quick math and his 4.2M makes him the 52nd highest paid WR in the NFL right now. I know the guaranteed money matters too, it is hard to quantify that as easily.

Another way to look at it is who was signed for less...

Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett and Valdes-Scantling were all signed for less cash as far as cap hit and guaranteed money. I know part of the reason they wanted Hollins was his size. leadership and run blocking... can would anyone really argue the above 3 aren't better WRs that could have been had cheaper? This isn't to say Hollins is the worst deal ever made. But i do think looking at these contracts it clearly isn't the best deal by a mile.

Hollins had his best year playing in Josh's Raiders offense. Are you considering football smarts and experience in the Pats offensive system in your comments? Mike Williams with a Wonderlic score of 17 in Josh's offensive system?

 

[Zuma]

Hollins had his best year playing in Josh's Raiders offense.

This is true. Same for Bourne.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

This is true. Same for Bourne.

Agree. Bourne is an enigma since his ACL but he might really shine in camp.

Hollins is unique with a Wonderlic score of 35, 6'4" tall, and a great blocker. Hollins is a lock to make the team. I doubt the Pats would have signed him so early if he was not scheduled to be avaiable for camp this summer.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Hollins is the best blocking WR, so he is on the field for the running plays (roughly 50%), plus some of the passing plays. Williams will not have a higher snap count than Hollins.

We disagree on this. The Patriot were intent on adding some explosiveness to their offense this season, so I expect both Williams and Henderson to get a lot more snaps than people think they will get.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Agree. Bourne is an enigma since his ACL but he might really shine in camp.

Hollins is unique with a Wonderlic score of 35, 6'4" tall, and a great blocker. Hollins is a lock to make the team. I doubt the Pats would have signed him so early if he was not scheduled to be avaiable for camp this summer.

Bradley Chubb scored a 0 on his wonderlic, which means he doesn’t know his name. Not a bad player though, he just has to be reminded constantly of which huddle he belongs in.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Bradley Chubb scored a 0 on his wonderiic, which means he doesn’t know his name. Not a bad player though, he just has to be reminded constantly of which huddle he belongs in.

Some offensive systems are harder to grasp, some are easier. Posters have said they disliked Josh and Tom's more complicated offensive scheme (whatever name you want to call it), but we won multiple SBs with it and Tom ran the same system in TB. I think it does limit the players in the system to those that grasp the more complicated system. WRs and RBs tend to have lower average Wonderlic scores which does not help either.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

We disagree on this. The Patriot were intent on adding some explosiveness to their offense this season, so I expect both Williams and Henderson to get a lot more snaps than people think they will get.

Williams is a small guy who is a rookie. He might play a majority of the passing downs, but he will not play a high percentage of the overall offensive plays. Maybe you are referring to Williams playing a lot on passing downs?

 

[Wozzy]

Some offensive systems are harder to grasp, some are easier. Posters have said they disliked Josh and Tom's more complicated offensive scheme (whatever name you want to call it), but we won multiple SBs with it and Tom ran the same system in TB. I think it does limit the players in the system to those that grasp the more complicated system. WRs and RBs tend to have lower average Wonderlic scores which does not help either.

Bruce Arians, and by extension Brady, ran the Air Coryell system in Tampa.

The EP offense is harder to run, but also harder to defend for many of the same reasons. Easier doesn’t mean better, it just requires smarter players. Football smarts, not necessarily book smarts. The Wonderlic seems to be useless.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Bruce Arians, and by extension Brady, ran the Air Coryell system in Tampa.

The EP offense is harder to run, but also harder to defend for many of the same reasons. Easier doesn’t mean better, it just requires smarter players. Football smarts, not necessarily book smarts. The Wonderlic seems to be useless.

Yup, Bruce ran Air Coryell for a year and TB lost. In Y2, Bruce close to step aside (wink, wink), and Brady ran things. There were multiple players saying Brady was telling the TB GM what to do. Of course, Brady won his 7th SB running the NE offense in TB in Y2.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

The 1st time Hollins lays someone out will be a thing

 

[Real fan 02]

Hollins may be IR'd. Who knows... As for a real why he makes it? Mostly his size and veteran leadership. I don't think Vrabel likes the idea of Diggs being the sole veteran presence in that room if he cuts Bourne (which i think he should due to contract issues). Also he is a very good blocking WR, and since we invested in a new RB they probably like that aspect of his game. So he adds a lot of things this room lacks. For now i have him as a lock... but it is conditional on his ability to still play and that he hasn't lost a step or anything. Also the fact he is virtually entirely paid for for year 1 does matter.

So Hollins is probably a lock to stick on the roster even if it is only as an IR'd guy who comes back later. The question of liking the signing in the first place is a fair one though. And the contract was for sure questionable IMO. Did they need to pay that much in guaranteed money to get him? Did he have THAT many suitors? I don't think so.

To me this is a rare case of Vrabel allowing a personal relationship to get in the way of business. I think that is a fair criticism.

We also have Henry, Moses, Bourne, Diggs that i would say are leaders on offense. As well as Drake of course

Hollins yes he's a culture guy, big bodied and can get behind the defense. What I've been saying on Hollins is he was signed prior to us signing Diggs and drafting Williams. Hollins hasn't participated although he's been present.

At 31 if he is still limited with all the competition at wr does Vrabel keep him on the active roster taking a spot away from say chism?

Hollins likely won't be a starter if he does make the 53. Diggs, pop, Henry and Williams IMO are the primary guys for Drake. However camp will tell us alot more.

 

[Real fan 02]

Agreed, Hollins had the most WR snaps for the Bills in 2024 because of his blocking prowess and his efficiency as a receiver. He'll have more snaps than many folks would expect, and will have a relatively low snap to target ratio, but will do well with his limited non blocking opportunities .

Boutte had more production, as well a pop and they had to suffer through 5 weeks of Brissett. Hollins played with an all pro QB and excellent offensive line.. why did he only have 300 plus yards??
I do like his blocking abilities, I see him more involved in the red area than anything.
So while I like what Hollins brings we need to see him participate in training camp. Availability is the best ability a player can have.

 

[Real fan 02]

The 1st time Hollins lays someone out will be a thing

Gotta be on the field first.

 

[Wozzy]

Yup, Bruce ran Air Coryell for a year and TB lost. In Y2, Bruce close to step aside (wink, wink), and Brady ran things. There were multiple players saying Brady was telling the TB GM what to do. Of course, Brady won his 7th SB running the NE offense in TB in Y2.

Think you’re misremembering, Tom won his 7th ring his first year in TB using the Air Coryell system. They started out shaky, but once Arians asserted himself and insisted they run the ball more the team went on a winning streak. The breaking point was the week 9 loss to the Saints where they barely ran at all and got blown out.

Tom forced Arians out in year three and the team fell apart but they had a good two year run.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yup, Bruce ran Air Coryell for a year and TB lost. In Y2, Bruce close to step aside (wink, wink), and Brady ran things. There were multiple players saying Brady was telling the TB GM what to do. Of course, Brady won his 7th SB running the NE offense in TB in Y2.

Absolutely correct. I even remember Godwin saying he would go by TB12s house and watch Welker and Jules on film to help him acclimate to what Brady wanted.. it's still amazing to this day that TB12 was able to go out in year 1 and win another tittle. Just remarkable