Watch this turn into a 12-15 nail biter. Haha
BS Prediction #2. Patriots offensive score.
Top 9 lowest scoring games Pats were a -2.5 points off their average vs what their opponents normally averaged meaning they scored on average 24ppg (the three 10 pointers killed them)
Ove the year we score 27ppg. Over 17 games (incl LAC) Pats scored +4.17 ppg more than their opponent allows (this includes good Ds like CHI, LAC and even Indy was top 10. At the time Indys D was not playing well. CHI was OK and LAC held KC to 28)
KC allows 26ppg. Thats means we will score 30 on them.
Using my earlier post, we can be kind and call the Chiefs a good defense and say the Pats will score 24 points (based on -2.5 or 3 ) or we can say they suck and we'll score around 30 ppg.
In some additional math, over 17 games, on average the Chiefs score 11 points more than their opponent allows. The Pats allow 20. That means the Chiefs will score 31.
In another model, over 17 games, the Chiefs allow 2.5 points more than their opponents score on average. The Pats average 27. That means the Pats will score 30.
In one more model, over 17 games the Patriots allow opponents 2 points LESS than their regular season average. That means the Patriots will limit KC to 33 points.
However every since Hunt got the boot, they are ONLY scoring 8 more points than their opponent allows.
Using all 17 games w/ Hunt
Chiefs D vs Pats O- 30
Pats D vs Chiefs O- 33
Removing Hunt (Chiefs ave over 6 games) 32ppg
Chiefs O vs Pats D- 30
Chiefs D vs Pats O (same)- 30
Should be interesting.
