Point well taken.
From a more general view, I watch the D give up A LOT of yards (granted it is sometimes due to conditions of the game such as a lopsided score) and it makes me starkly concerned. It may be unfair to the D but all those 'yards allowed' makes their solid 'points allowed' performance appear less valid.
See, I think this is at the heart of what I am talking about. My OP was designed to strip away perception and statistics that can taint the argument and simply look at what the defense has done to contribute to winning and losing games.
I am talking about what they have done on the field to contribute to winning and losing, not taking cumulative statistics and trying to apply them to situations that will be different. To give a stark example, if we were ahead 38-7 with 1 minute left, and played a prevent defense with 7 DBs and the safeties 40 yards deep and the opponent had 4 straight 20 yard runs for a TD those 4 carries for 80 yards wouldn't be very relevant to how we would do stopping a run first offense. Yet, they would make our run D look statistically poor.
Which leads me back to, can a defense that seemingly always has yards piled up on them be effective enough against top opponents when the O is misfiring?
I wish I had the time to break it out, but I do not think your statement that they always have yards piled up is as accurate as you think. An awful lot of those yards were after the game was out of hand. Miami, Oakland and Indy alone piled up tons of yards after the game was out of reach, and there were others too. Just those 3 probably skew the yards stat by 60 a game over the season. 60 less a game would rank them 18th. The Vikings, ranked 20th, for example, would appear to have a 'better' defense by rote statistic view. However, if the Patriots are allowing the same number of yards while the game is not decided, then allowing an extra 100 playing prevent pass defense to win while the Vikings are allowing 40 rushing yards while the other team runs out the clock and the Vikings lose, is the statistic at all telling?
I think we allow bucket loads of yards after the game is out of reach, but while it is competitive its not nearly as much as you think.
That shouldn't change when the offense isn't having a great day because what appears to be the main element in the excessive yards allowed (big lead) wouldn't be there.
The good news is I believe the O is getting back on track and may be capable of scoring a lot on any team. I also believe the Patriot D when healthy is good enough to compliment the O. But I also have watched the O struggle (like in Dallas, Pitt, first half of KC, First half of Jets, much of the Giants game) and that is where the D's ability comes into play and whether it will shine or not shine through.
And it had pretty consistently played well in those circumstances.
At this point you seem more convinced than I that the D's ability can lead the team to victory in that type situation in the playoffs.
I'm not sure where you find conclusion in my posts, I have not made any.
I have simply assessed what they have actually done, attempting to strip away conjecture and projection. I can see how that sounds more confident than many fans are, but that really isn't ME being MORE confident, it is THEM realizing the FACTS conflict with their lack of confidence.
Again, I drew no conclusion, so anyone saying my OP was overly optimistic is simply saying the facts in it conflict with their level of pessimism.
Admittedly, however, my pessimism is based on a 'what I've seen' hunch versus what you correctly point out regarding the breakdown of the W-L results.
There is certainly no doubt that there are a lot of plays that could be made out there that haven't been. But I think situation is critical in assessing it. Without question we have had an enormous amount of injuries at LB and DB. It stands to reason the talent of the players out there in coverage is compromised. It further stands to reason that when you take those players and tie one hand behind their back by going into a prevent philosophy that takes weakens coverage in areas to eliminate the big play, and abandons any blitzing to help the coverage that those stressed areas are even more exposed by backup talent manning them. But it has yet to be seen IMO that those circumstances translate to major issues when NOT playing prevent.