A Balanced Look at the Defense

[borg]

I suppose every D would be a world beater if they too could eliminate certain series or quarters from their game logs.
Why not be selective on the offensive side of the ball as well. "If the D stopped the Bills with a 3 and out, the offensive would receive the ball on their 40 instead of fielding kickoffs in the endzone after repeated Bills TDs". If the D had made just one extra stop instead of letting teams go on 8 minute drives, the offense would have had extra opportunities...and the Time of Possession imbalance we saw during the first half of the season would have not be so lopsided in the favor of the opponents.
The pass defense is rancid and the excuse makers are blind.

 

[Rob0729]

I suppose every D would be a world beater if they too could eliminate certain series or quarters from their game logs.
Why not be selective on the offensive side of the ball as well. "If the D stopped the Bills with a 3 and out, the offensive would receive the ball on their 40 instead of fielding kickoffs in the endzone after repeated Bills TDs". If the D had made just one extra stop instead of letting teams go on 8 minute drives, the offense would have had extra opportunities...and the Time of Possession imbalance we saw during the first half of the season would have not be so lopsided in the favor of the opponents.
The pass defense is rancid and the excuse makers are blind.

Talking about yards and points given up in garbage time is valid. Talking about turnovers putting the defense in bad positions is valid. But there is a point where it is semantics playing.

The fact is pass defense is in the average to below average range with a lot of garbage time yards making it the worst in the league in terms of yards allowed. Their points allowed is above average (12), opposing QB rating is below average (22nd), they are second best in INTs, and average in passing TDs (17th). That makes them in the average to below average range, not the worst.

 

[slam]

Factoid I learned from a recent CHFF article: After this season, 4 out of the 5 "worst" pass defenses in terms of yardage in NFL history will be playoff teams.

2011 Patriots
2011 Packers
1995 Falcons
1986 Jets

Only team out of this bottom 5 to not make the playoffs is the 2005 49ers.

The Saints are also on pace to make the top 10 worst pass defenses list in terms of yardage.

 

[Ring 6]

Far too positive in light of the defense ignoring too many critical factors Andy. When I have some more time, I'll break down a proper response for you.

As a general position, the defense isn't as bad as people are saying and it's not been as good as you're attempting to illustrate.

It is not positive or negative nor does it ignore anything.
It is a break down game by game of the defenses contribution to winning, and I think its not really debatable.

 

[Ring 6]

Agree with this totally. For me at the end of the day it's about how many points were allowed by the team. That's the bottom line. This team gives up about as many points as the top third teams in the league. If compared against all 32 teams, that's good.

Unfortunately we don't compare this team versus the entire league but really only against the best because we expect this team to be a Superbowl contender. So whether top third is good enough against playoff competition or not is the critical question.

Not only points allowed but WHEN they were allowed as well.

 

[Ring 6]

Wait, so the only clear losses for the defense come against pittsburgh, buffalo and new york despite numerous offensive turn overs? This analysis is hardly objective.

How is it not objective? I assessed the performance of the defense in each game. In those 3 it was swiss cheese with the game on the line vs the Giants and Buffalo, and never did much to take control of the game away from Pitt.
What is not objective? Do you think objective means you can only give 100% of 0% of the blame?

By the way, I am not saying the defense was solely responsible for winning or losing the game, I am saying the won or lost vs the other offense. It happens that our offense wins almost all of the time vs the other D, so the winning or losing by the D coincides with the game result but that doesnt have to be so, and really that was kind of the point. We are not winning in spite of the defense.

 

[Ring 6]

I suppose every D would be a world beater if they too could eliminate certain series or quarters from their game logs.

I suppose that would be true, and your statement would be valid if I had done anything resembling that, which of course I didn't.
I looked at the defense's contribution to the win or loss. Once the game is decided, the rest is irrelevant. Are you really saying that allowing the Raiders to score at the end on the last drive of the game when we already up 18 points had any impact on winning or losing?

[/quote]Why not be selective on the offensive side of the ball as well. "If the D stopped the Bills with a 3 and out, the offensive would receive the ball on their 40 instead of fielding kickoffs in the endzone after repeated Bills TDs". [/quote]
Because I am not dealing in what ifs.

If the D had made just one extra stop instead of letting teams go on 8 minute drives, the offense would have had extra opportunities...and the Time of Possession imbalance we saw during the first half of the season would have not be so lopsided in the favor of the opponents.

To what end? The defense could have not allowed a single yard 9 times and we would be no better for it. The defense played poorly enough that it deserved to lose in 3 others. Your generalizing just confuses the matter, on purpose, I think.

The pass defense is rancid and the excuse makers are blind.

How is this thread making excuses? Does your opinion of the pass defense change the fact of whether the defense contributed to a win or caused a loss?
Which game do you disagree with? Again, generalizing in the face of exacting analysis then calling the exactling analysis an excuse is pretty ignorant.

 

[Ring 6]

Talking about yards and points given up in garbage time is valid. Talking about turnovers putting the defense in bad positions is valid. But there is a point where it is semantics playing.

The fact is pass defense is in the average to below average range with a lot of garbage time yards making it the worst in the league in terms of yards allowed. Their points allowed is above average (12), opposing QB rating is below average (22nd), they are second best in INTs, and average in passing TDs (17th). That makes them in the average to below average range, not the worst.

The bottom line is winning and losing. You can list whatever stats you wish and pretend they mean something. Most fans do this becuase they think they know what causes wins and losses, so it must be an important stats.
But when you break down what happened and when, it illustrates which stats plays and events determined the result. With this defense is blatantly clear.

Stats alone are useless. Stats that result in wins are the stats that matter. If we were 3-9 and our QB got us behind all the time then threw for a whole bunch of yards late in the game in a failed effort to come back, would we call that good offense?

Sure, you can generalize and say these stats are this and I think they are important because I think they are what determines good or bad, but in the end, if you actually look at the football games and decide whether the defenses effort deserved to result in a win or loss, you are simply judging its play that day based on winning or losing.
Using stats to say how good or bad a player, team, or unit is really is only purposeful in making a what if argument. You cannot use stats to go back and say the team is not 9-3. So if you actually can look at the game and determine what the contribution to the outcome is, why would you line up a bunch of stats to guess?

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with the sentiment that the defense isn't nearly as bad as many people on this board and elsewhere want to make it sound, but the overall initial analysis might be a little too rosey. I think it is closer to reality than most of the doom and gloomers put forth, but I might not go as far as Andrew on some of his analysis.

I did feel that the defense did it job in games like the Dolphins, Raiders, and Eagles; but allowed a lot of garbage time yards and/or scores to make it look far worse than it was. That said some of the "clear wins" by the defense were not so clear in that they did enough to win, but had problems at least at times.

Clear win means they clearly played well enough to win. Based upon the defense, the team deserved to win.
How does 'had problems at least at times' change that? I did not say they played like the 85 Bears, dominated, or shut down the other team.
Which 'clear wins' do you think are debatable? I honestly don't see any.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I suppose every D would be a world beater if they too could eliminate certain series or quarters from their game logs.
Why not be selective on the offensive side of the ball as well. "If the D stopped the Bills with a 3 and out, the offensive would receive the ball on their 40 instead of fielding kickoffs in the endzone after repeated Bills TDs". If the D had made just one extra stop instead of letting teams go on 8 minute drives, the offense would have had extra opportunities...and the Time of Possession imbalance we saw during the first half of the season would have not be so lopsided in the favor of the opponents.
The pass defense is rancid and the excuse makers are blind.

You suppose?

Hmmmm....that's rich.

This proves my point.

Once some clown gets his "opinion", the torture to undisprove it comes next.

 

[IllegalContact]

everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it is a stretch to call the OP 'balanced'

the same things that caused the losses to the bills and giants are things that are prevalent in most games which is very poor 4th quarter defense.

the cowboys killed themselves by not trusting romo to make at least one throw in trying to protect the lead.

for the most part, the defense has failed to prove that it can make a stop in the 4th quarter.

its not just defensive issues with the pats......its the magnitude and even more importantly, the QB's who the pats have faced
henne
rivers
fitzpatrick
campbell
sanchez
romo
roethlisberger
manning
sanchez
palko
young
orlovsky

the pats are dead last at the hands of this bunch?

 

[Rob0729]

The bottom line is winning and losing. You can list whatever stats you wish and pretend they mean something. Most fans do this becuase they think they know what causes wins and losses, so it must be an important stats.
But when you break down what happened and when, it illustrates which stats plays and events determined the result. With this defense is blatantly clear.

Stats alone are useless. Stats that result in wins are the stats that matter. If we were 3-9 and our QB got us behind all the time then threw for a whole bunch of yards late in the game in a failed effort to come back, would we call that good offense?

Sure, you can generalize and say these stats are this and I think they are important because I think they are what determines good or bad, but in the end, if you actually look at the football games and decide whether the defenses effort deserved to result in a win or loss, you are simply judging its play that day based on winning or losing.
Using stats to say how good or bad a player, team, or unit is really is only purposeful in making a what if argument. You cannot use stats to go back and say the team is not 9-3. So if you actually can look at the game and determine what the contribution to the outcome is, why would you line up a bunch of stats to guess?

I have said multiple times that all I care about is winning and losing. I just am saying that this pass defense is closer to average than an abomination.

I don't have a problem with your analysis. It is closer to mine than most here. I think you were a little optimistic, but nowhere near away from reality as some of the doom and gloomers.

I also agree that stats are misleading. I just used them to counter the other poster's point.

 

[mgteich]

Do we really believe that THIS defense would be 9-3 with an average offense? Or is it that our awesome top 4 offense is 9-3 with this defense?

Yes, yards allowed is a terrible stat since top offense are willing to have their defense give up lots of yards, especially after they are ahead. Besides, the bend and don't break defense is set up to allow yards between the 20's.

We are not the worst defense in the league or anywhere near that. Clearly stats don't take game situation into account. Even points allowed is misleading since giving up a touchdown when you are 17 points ahead in the 4th quarter means little (ditto for opponent's QB rating). Of course, both of the latter stats have us as an average defense. For those here, that simply isn't acceptable. For them, unless you are the best, you are the worst. We are an average defense, a bit below average when all 4 of our injured are out.

Ihedigbo has been playing extremely well. We are NOT terrible at safety with Chung, Ihedigbo, and Moore.

Belichick has gotten reasonable play from the scrubs: Moore and Jones. Belichick has even got some reasonable play from Edelman.

If all are healthy, we have a "reasonable" secondary with Arrington, McCourty, Molden, Chung and Ihedigbo. Understand, I have said "reasonable". This is still our weakest unit and is still likely not likely to be good enough to match well against any of the NFC teams we would be likely to play in the Super Bowl.

Also, as an aside, BALT might have a field day running against us if Spikes isn't back.

BOTTOM LINE

We don't have as bad a defense as those posting here indicate. Well, that really isn't possible.

We do have an average defense with four players injured: McCourty, Chung, Spikes and Fletcher.

Personally, I don't think that we are as good as PITT or BALT with these folks injured.
That being said, on a given Sunday, we could beat one of these teams. We need a lot of health to be reasonably favored to be in the Super Bowl at this point.

 

[Funktopus]

1) If you don't agree that evaluating performance by possession while the game is still competitive yields a more meaningful understanding of the capability of the defense vs. all possessions then please explain why. It seems like a perfectly reasonable premise to me.

2) Go to your website of choice (I used espn), look at defensive performance by possession when the NE is losing or leading by 7 or less. Examine the results of the drives (Turnover, Punt, FG, Touchdown), time of possession, offensive starting point, and #snaps. Form your own opinion about what it means.

Then, return here and explain why the sky is still falling.

 

[borg]

everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it is a stretch to call the OP 'balanced'

the same things that caused the losses to the bills and giants are things that are prevalent in most games which is very poor 4th quarter defense.

the cowboys killed themselves by not trusting romo to make at least one throw in trying to protect the lead.

for the most part, the defense has failed to prove that it can make a stop in the 4th quarter.

its not just defensive issues with the pats......its the magnitude and even more importantly, the QB's who the pats have faced
henne
rivers
fitzpatrick
campbell
sanchez
romo
roethlisberger
manning
sanchez
palko
young
orlovsky

the pats are dead last at the hands of this bunch?

If you examine QB play throughout the league, excluding 6-8 teams, QB play has been brutal. . Big Ben, Romo, and Manning (Rivers?) are talented and the Pats are 1-2 (2-2 if include Rivers).
Then look at schedule strength...which is getting diminished as the year plays out. Once thought as a brutal schedule....Pats schedule is ranked 24th thru week 13 according to Sagarin.
Prior to the injury bug and BB cuts, the secondary was near full capacity.....and Henne, Fiztpatrick abused them. Now the Olovsky and Youngs of the league are throwing darts against the latest greatest BB mixture.
So lets review.....the Pats secondary playing against the 24th hardest schedule in the league is getting lit up by JAG QBs. Thank God Tom Brady is on the roster to cover for this defensive debacle.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

If you examine QB play throughout the league, excluding 6-8 teams, QB play has been brutal. . Big Ben, Romo, and Manning (Rivers?) are talented and the Pats are 1-2 (2-2 if include Rivers).
Then look at schedule strength...which is getting diminished as the year plays out. Once thought as a brutal schedule....Pats schedule is ranked 24th thru week 13 according to Sagarin.
Prior to the injury bug and BB cuts, the secondary was near full capacity.....and Henne, Fiztpatrick abused them. Now the Olovsky and Youngs of the league are throwing darts against the latest greatest BB mixture.
So lets review.....the Pats secondary playing against the 24th hardest schedule in the league is getting lit up by JAG QBs. Thank God Tom Brady is on the roster to cover for this defensive debacle.

Maybe Illegal Contact isn't wearing the dunce cap this week.

 

[Stilla]

W1 Hennie had 4 TDs in 4 games. (1 TD per game.)
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.

W2 Rivers has 19 TDs in 12 games. (1.5 TDs per game.)
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.

W3 Fitzpatrick has 20 TDs in 12 games (1.6 TDs per game.)
NE gave up 4 passing TDs.

W4 Campbell had 6 TDs in 6 games (1 TD per game.)
NE gave up 1 passing TD.

W5 Sanchez has 19 TDs in 12 games. (1.5 TD per game.)
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.

W6 Romo has 22 TDs in 12 games (1.8 TD per game.)
NE gave up 1 passing TDs.

W7 Roethlisberger has 19 TDs in 12 games. (1.5 per game.)
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.

W8 Manning has 23 TDs in 12 games. (1.9 per game.)
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.

W9 Sanchez has 19 TDs in 12 games. (1.5 TD per game.)
NE gave up 1 passing TDs.

W10 Palko has 1 TDs in 5 games. (0.2 per game.) :rocker:
NE gave up 0 passing TDs.

W11 Young has 4 TDs in 3 games. (1.3 per game.)
NE gave up 1 TD passing TD

W12 Orlovsky has 2 TD in 1 game. (2 per game.) 1st start.
NE gave up 2 passing TDs.


On average NE gives up points the QB is expected to score.

The average expected TDs scored by QBs against our Defense. 1.4
NE allowed 1.6

Tom Brady has 30 TDs in 12 games. (2.5 TDs per game.)

 

[TheComeback]

everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it is a stretch to call the OP 'balanced'

the same things that caused the losses to the bills and giants are things that are prevalent in most games which is very poor 4th quarter defense.

the cowboys killed themselves by not trusting romo to make at least one throw in trying to protect the lead.

for the most part, the defense has failed to prove that it can make a stop in the 4th quarter.

its not just defensive issues with the pats......its the magnitude and even more importantly, the QB's who the pats have faced
henne
rivers
fitzpatrick
campbell
sanchez
romo
roethlisberger
manning
sanchez
palko
young
orlovsky

the pats are dead last at the hands of this bunch?

Have you compared that "bunch" to what other teams have played?

Here is the Ravens' schedule by QB:

Roethlisberger
Hasselbeck
Bradford
Sanchez
Schaub
Gabbert
Kolb
Roethlisberger
Jackson
Dalton
Smith
McCoy

The Pats haven't played "easy" QBs by any means. Heck, the Ravens have only played Big Ben (2x) and Schaub. Maybe Dalton and Hasselbeck, if you want to throw them in, but neither of them is much better than Campbell or Fitzpatrick early in the season.

If anything, I'd hazard a guess that the Patriots have faced just as many "good" QBs this year as any team in the league.

I don't think the defense is "good," but there are a lot of fallacious arguments being made against them, and a lot of people trying to make the situation look worse than it really is.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

W3 Fitzpatrick has 20 TDs in 12 games (1.6 TDs per game.)
NE gave up 4 passing TDs.

I only count 2 unless you count the pick 6.

 

[IllegalContact]

Maybe Illegal Contact isn't wearing the dunce cap this week.

maybe ...... maybe not ...... at least your stupidity is constantly at a high level