You're a good guy to ask this. How much of an upgrade, if any, is Michel over Lewis and how will the ground game be lethal given they've basically traded Solder for either an unknown or Wynn?
I'm seriously asking btw and am optimistic about both the run game and the oline but just not sure how they are going to go from last year's good running game to lethal.
The thing is that the Pats' ground game doesn't need to be "lethal", just a reliably legitimate threat to be continuously accounted for by the defense. One of its primary purposes in the Pats offense is to make play-action work well without any "tells" that the opposing defense can read.
My fearless forecast:
-- In 2018 the Pats offense will play +/- 1100 snaps.
-- Between 53%-58% of those snaps will be pass attempts and the rest will be running plays.
-- Passing will likely account for ~60%-70% of the yards gained and TD's scored.
-- The "lead rusher" (whoever that turns out to be for 2018) will likely average between 12-14 carries per game for an average of 50 - 60 yards per game, and account for 1/3 to 1/2 of all rushing TDs.
It seems pretty clear that a lot of folks have huge expectations for Michel - something on the order of Blount's 300 carries for 1200 yards and 18 rushing TDs (2016),
combined with Lewis' 32 receptions for 215 yards and 3 more TDs (2017). Some are basing their expectations on Michel's college tape, but most others seem to be basing their expectations primarily on his draft slot.
So, for this latter group, if Michel manages to produce "only" 800 total yards from scrimmage and make 6 TDs (rushing and receiving combined), that will likely constitute a bitter disappointment and get him labled as a "bust". However, that's the more likely outcome and, personally, I'll be overjoyed if Michel contributes that much as a rookie without fumbling more than once.
