“We’re onto Buffalo...”

[upstater1]

People are a little bit fooled by the 16-10 score in the last game. They think you can wipe out the INTs and the Bills win. But they never seem to get what the Patriots do, especially on the road, when they get a lead. Patriots jumped out to a 13-0 lead, and they were ahead 13-3 with less than 20 minutes left in the game. The Bills got back into it but it was only in the last quarter that the Patriots offense opened it up again, especially on the road.

 

[FCB02062]

People are a little bit fooled by the 16-10 score in the last game. They think you can wipe out the INTs and the Bills win. But they never seem to get what the Patriots do, especially on the road, when they get a lead. Patriots jumped out to a 13-0 lead, and they were ahead 13-3 with less than 20 minutes left in the game. The Bills got back into it but it was only in the last quarter that the Patriots offense opened it up again, especially on the road.

The Patriots scored two field goals on offense...Buffalo scored 10 points on offense WITH 3 Allen int ...not much fooling in that score, Pat's lucky to win

 

[Chevrolet]

To win:

1) Brady must not turn the ball over with interception or fumble..
2) OL must open up a few lanes for Sony and RB and they must run the ball over 25 times
3) Time for Dorsett to step up and make a few plays
4) Also time for Sanu (now that he is over his ankle problems) to justify the 2nd round pick and be possession receive and come up big like Anquin Boldin used to do for Cardinals
5) D just needs to keep on doing what they have been doing, keep Singletary and Gore under control and minimize big runs, Spy Collins on Allen and force Allen to throw the ball
5) Special teams need a huge game and keep the Bills backed up and shorten the field for Brady

 

[Mack Herron]

JMac also uncertain in the secondary.

 

[FCB02062]

The Patriots will generate "points" - and by points I mean 20-24 (yes, probably wishful thinking) ONLY if they can somehow run the football vs a good defense; i'm talking 125-175 yards. If the Patriots cannot run the ball they will not be in manageable third down situations. If Brady is faced with constant 3d and 8, 3d and 7 we're going to see another 4-13 day vs the McDermott defense.

There's no more "old reliable" on third down - Gronkowski F-d us with his late retirement, Edelman is hurt bigly, and James White has been and will be doubled on third downs. Sanu and/or Harry are going to have to be in play on third downs. In his 6 games w the Pats Sanu has 11 first downs - good enough for a second round pick? Don't think so. In his 5 games this season Harry has 5 first downs. Jakobi Myers only played 7 snaps vs Cincinatti so he's an after thought. LaCosse - 5 first downs in 9 games....Dorsett? He has 16 first down in 12 games. Contrast that with Edelman - FIFTY first downs in 12 games. I'm sure White with or without help will eliminate a severely hampered Edelman - Cincinnati took him out of the game to the tune of 2 catches for 9 yards.

The Patriots ABSOLUTELY have to be in third down distances where a run is a serious option. They have no big play ability AT ALL (save for trick plays, a once every 4 games screen pass for 30 yards, or a garbage time Burkhead 33 yard run vs Cincinnati).

I was hoping to find that somewhere Buffalo was susceptible to jet sweeps, end arounds, etc (thinking perhaps Harry could be big here)....BUT i looked into the last six games and there's only 1 rush attempt (7 yards) vs Buffalo in the last 6 games (Jakeem Grant, Miami). So offensive coaches don't think the wide receiver run plays would work v Buffalo. Dorsett had 1 carry for 9 yards vs Buffalo in wk 4.

It shouldn't have come to this in 2019...

 

[upstater1]

The Patriots scored two field goals on offense...Buffalo scored 10 points on offense WITH 3 Allen int ...not much fooling in that score, Pat's lucky to win

The Patriots take the air out of the ball all the time. They did that day. Look at the play calling. Easy to see. The 13-0 lead in a tough environment meant they were taking no chances. It was incredibly loud.

Let me give you the sequences after they jumped to 13-0 (boring and plain as vanilla)

1. 2 Sony Michel short runs, incomplete on 3rd down.
2. Izzo false start, Michel runs, 3rd and 14, deep throw to Dorsett incomplete.
3. 1st and 1o at New England 5 yard line. 16 plays, 95 yards, 8:19 off the clock, 3rd and 2, Brady intercepted in the end zone.

That took us into the 3rd quarter. With 4 minutes left, the Bills scored and made it 13-10. That's when the Patriots opened up the offense again, after playing conservatively for 25 minutes.

4. Brady completed 4 of 5 passes on next series, only one Michel run, the only inc. was an Edelman drop, and Josh Gordon caught a 35 yarder. Patriots got it down to Buffalo's 4 yard line. Gost FG.
5. Patriots offense starts at own 3 yard line, so of course they need to be conservative. They passed all 3 times, 2 screens for minimal yards, punted.
6. Cannon penalty hurt them the next series. 10 yard pass to Edelman, thrown away on 3rd down.

It's pretty clear that what I've been saying was true. The Patriots went up 13-0 and then for the next 2 series, they ran the ball 5 straight times, there was a penalty, and they went 3 and out both times.

Next series they came out throwing and gained 95 yards before Brady's interception (if you're making excuses because of Allen's INTs, then you have to account for Brady's INT in the end zone, which took points off the board).

After the Bills came within 13-10, the Patriots went to the pass exclusively, they drove for a FG after a big pass to Gordon, but then on the next series were backed up in their own end when they went to screens, and after that had a big penalty that cut short the next series.

 

[JMC00]

guys playing this game that didn't in the game in buffalo

Hightower, Wynn, Harry, Sanu, Burkhead (was active but had a foot injury and played no more than 5-10 snaps)

 

[mgteich]

I think that we'll we win. I would also be disappointed if BUF scores 20 points.

However, please clarify your use of stats.

How many points per game have the patriots scored against winning teams, against playoff teams? How many has the offense scored against winning and playoff teams?

.
If the stats are to be to believed them we score 27 points per game vs Buffalo 20 points - what gives us another advantage. .

 

[oceansizer]

There you go.Patriots played playoff teams and got points against them - Steelers ( 33 ), Ravens ( 20 ), Eagles ( assuming they are a playoff team 17 ), Texans ( 22) and Chiefs ( 16 ) what gives us on average 21.6 points per game.
Let's look at the Bills from the same perspective. Against
Eagles (13), Patriots (10), Ravens (17) and Steelers (17) what gives us 14.25 points per game.
Against potential playoff teams Pats 21.6 vs Bills 14.25 points. That is still a difference.

 

[RobertWeathers]

There you go.Patriots played playoff teams and got points against them - Steelers ( 33 ), Ravens ( 20 ), Eagles ( assuming they are a playoff team 17 ), Texans ( 22) and Chiefs ( 16 ) what gives us on average 21.6 points per game.
Let's look at the Bills from the same perspective. Against
Eagles (13), Patriots (10), Ravens (17) and Steelers (17) what gives us 14.25 points per game.
Against potential playoff teams Pats 21.6 vs Bills 14.25 points. That is still a difference.

Yea I'm feeling 20-13 Pats.

 

[RobertWeathers]

guys playing this game that didn't in the game in buffalo

Hightower, Wynn, Harry, Sanu, Burkhead (was active but had a foot injury and played no more than 5-10 snaps)

Here were BUFs inactives.

RB Devin Singletary
WR Robert Foster
TE Tyler Kroft
T Conor McDermott
G Spencer Long
LB Corey Thompson
NCB Taron Johnson

Singletary is a handful and Johnson is key in their nickel and dime packages. Starts sometimes too.

 

[StairwayToSe7en]

They lost the last time they played at home, to KC.

Might want to go back and rewatch that game, bud. Patriots won 26-23.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Concerned with Brady's health and lack of offense in this one. This could get ugly, but we as fans need to stay calm

 

[libra957]

Went to the Bill's forum,they actually think they're gonna win. Lol this is beyond rich.

 

[scout]

Went to the Bill's forum,they actually think they're gonna win. Lol this is beyond rich.

I'm picking the Patriots, but think it will be close. Not sure where the LOL is coming from .

 

[FCB02062]

Just win Saturday, take care of business vs Miami...#2 seed, take our chances

 

[Family]

Jonathan Jones is a huge loss.

 

[supafly]

Might want to go back and rewatch that game, bud. Patriots won 26-23.

In our hearts, so that should count as something.

 

[JMC00]

Jonathan Jones is a huge loss.

Weird. Over the last month i've continually read that he's terrible.

 

[jimnance]

Weird. Over the last month i've continually read that he's terrible.

I've been away from the board a lot so I don't recall seeing much about that.
But obviously anyone who posted that crap is an idiot.
He's been the best slot cb in the NFL this year.
Over the last 2 years he's been our 2nd best cb. That says a lot since Jackson has been lights out. Those 2 and Gilmore is hands down the best trio of cbs in the league.
Jones and Jackson were absolute steals.