I think people are ignoring certain things that are in the Pat’s favor. They are ignoring the fact that the Pat’s finished 2nd in points per game. Denver was 14th, behind the Houston Texans who were 13th. That was 14th WITH Bo Nix. Sure Jarrett Stidham could have his best game ever, and the Pats can play like ****, and they lose, but the stats show that the Pats have an elite offense, and Denver’s, though good, certainly not elite. Probably will fall down a level because of the loss of Nix.
Defensively, people are saying how great the Broncos defense is, Pats finished 3rd in points against, closely followed by the Broncos at 4th. But people disregard the fact that the Pats have a good defense. I think as we’ve seen in the playoffs, I think that the Pat’s defense has taken that personal.
Drake Maye vs pressure. The Broncos led the league in sacks. But people disregard the fact that Maye was the best QB in the league vs pressure (stats back this up). The Pat’s O-line certainly isn’t elite, I believe Maye was the 4th most sacked QB in the league. Yet they still scored the second most points per game in the league. Maye seems to shrug off sacks and goes onto the next play. Same goes for fumbles and INTs, the next offensive possession, he’s put that behind him. His personality is to keep fighting. There were games where he was sacked 6 times, one time in back to back games, and the Pats scored 56 points in those games (combined) and Maye threw 5 TDs and had 2 INTs (combined). He doesn't get rattled by pressure. He never gets too high, or never gets too low.
Coaching. I believe the Broncos have the edge with Sean Payton, he’s a SB winning coach. He’s also been really good with all types of QBs. That being said, Vrabel is a helluva coach. He’s dealt with a lot of issues, as many coaches do, and he has a team, as most pundits said prior to the season, was down near the bottom of the league in talent level, in the AFCCG.
Now we come to the elephant in the room. Stidham. Despite all the stats and facts I’ve listed above, the so called experts on TV are rallying around him like he’s Nick Foles. By the time Foles beat the Pats in SB 52, he had thrown 61 TD passes and 29 INTs in the NFL and 9752 yards. Stidham isn’t Foles. Despite the media’s love, he’s not Bo Nix. I think it’s a logical conclusion that the offense won’t score at a similar rate as when Bo Nix is on the field.
Media is also bringing up the Pat’s past playoff record in Denver, it’s really a weak argument. A playoff game being played in 2016 has no bearing on a playoff game in 2026. It’s a ridiculous argument.
If the Pats play well and limit the mistakes, they should win. But we’ve seen that even when the Pats make mistakes, and maybe don’t play their best game, they still usually win.