Patriots Pregame Thread Patriots Chargers Sunday @ 8pm - pregame thread

[PATSYLICIOUS]

22 mph wind gusts? LAC has the type of defense that forces dink and dunk and is very good in the redzone. The kicking game might be very important. Borregales might be the key to this game.

Something to keep an eye on. Plus ****er has been mostly indoors

 

[mike_usagisan]

Great post. 100% correct. Everyone interested in the draft should read it.

We might need to try to swing a big trade to get an EDGE guy here either this off season or next. And probably resigning Chaisson because we can't do better.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Both Munford and Lowe DNP today. That’s seemingly a little thin.

Just sickness. They'll be ready to go come gametime, I suspect.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

On the negative side, I think when the OL heads to the LOS they will see most of the time at least 8 men in the box, and unfortunately one of them will be Derwin James. Always hard to run into an 8 man box, and last I looked, our OL forte seems to be pass blocking, though it's looked better the last 3 weeks.

From NBC link:

The Chargers play a lot of two-high safety looks. Per TruMedia, the rate at which they show two safeties deep is the fifth-highest in the NFL, which has helped them rank eighth in the league in explosive pass rate allowed.

But those types of defensive structures can also make them vulnerable to the run. No one saw more rushing attempts with light boxes up front (six or fewer defenders) than the Chargers (198), according to Sports Info Solutions, and they led the league in rushing yards allowed when using light boxes (1,053). Additionally, opponents averaged 5.3 yards per carry with Los Angeles deploying light fronts.

 

[Iceman]

Do think this is a game in which our LB's are going to have there hands full with 3 quality tight ends as well as trying to contain the edges with a running QB but, as mentioned, think our defensive line can take advantage of the Charger's injury ridden, inept OL. I see Hampton has been banged up as well so I am really not too worried about there running game especially with Milton and Spillane back. Do not believe we have dominant D (need better edge rushers, more Turnovers) but do think we can hold them to the 20-24 point range.

Offensively, believe we will have success because of the running game which includes Maye. I do respect the Charger's defense, especially pass defense, so see a 27-21 Patriots type score.

Regardless, has been a phenomenal, wildly exciting year with a great looking future so trying to tell myself that but am sure will still be pissed if we lose!

 

[patchick]

Do think this is a game in which our LB's are going to have there hands full with 3 quality tight ends

That’s been my biggest concern too, but I was surprised when I looked up the stats to see that the Chargers had the 4th-lowest TE targets in the league this year.

 

[1960Pats]

Why does Denver have over twice the chance of the Patriots when both teams have the same record? I think the Sportsline Simulations are a bit lacking.

I'd guess defense.

It certainly wasn't a tougher schedule. They're neck and neck at 31 and 32.

I wonder how often it happens that the worst two schedules gives us the best two records.

 

[Tunescribe]

A big butt. A big rebutt. A big rebutted. A big rebuttal. A big rebuttaled.

One of these things doesn't belong.

I think the operative term is "rebutted." Not to be confused with cosmetic buttocks enhancement, or consecutive forehead strikes.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

As an older gentleman whose ass is much diminished from its former glory, I had been thinking of traveling to Brazil for a rebuttal. Now it turns out I can get one here for free? That's great. It's either that or suspenders. I already have the classic 70's pornostache, and suspenders would have pushed me too near the Wilford Brimley aesthetic.

Whoa! He turned out to be The THING!

 

[Real fan 02]

Someone I was listening to mentioned that we very rarely get pressure with just our front four. But if we start blitzing, it makes it harder on our defensive backs, especially those covering TEs and RBs. So, I'm not feeling overwhelmingly optimistic about our chances to exploit a beat up line.

With Spillane back it's huge for the defense. He's the general that sets up everything. We also have had solid play from Ponder and Jennings on the edges.. all we need to do is collapse the pocket even if we aren't getting heavy pressure collapse the pocket move Herbert off his spot.. he's at earnest a pocket passer that can run if need too. We should be able at least collapse the interior with Williams, Barmore, Tonga and Durden..

 

[Real fan 02]

This is going around everywhere. We need to just fight through this, and definitely feel better for the divisional round. We'll need to be.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Better that it's happening earlier in the week rather than on Saturday.

 

[Gumby]

Oh contraire young man.
— You should go get yourself a room at the The Renaissance Boston Patriot Place Hotel fri & Sat night & hang out in the lobby or gym. I have it on good authority that hanging out with people from Southern California, who might just happen to be there, is a good way to pass on err, I mean overcome your condition by associating yourself with their sunny disposition.

 

[Triumph]

Im reading that LAC plays a lot of Zone pass defense. Like 80%.

It just so happens that Maye excels at beating Zone hitting Henry and Diggs in the seams and dead spots. Also, Maye likes to run vs a Zone if nothing of value is there by way of the pass.

Conversely, the Pats have the ability to play Man. IIRC, @ Buffalo the Pats were in Man approximately 40% of the snaps.

 

[Dexter]

 

[jimnance]

Yep, the unfortunate result of responding/typing quickly while consuming numerous ****tails...

Scuttaled?

Not my word. The other poster used that.
His vocab and football acumen both need work

 

[Triumph]

Oh contraire young man.
— You should go get yourself a room at the The Renaissance Boston Patriot Place Hotel fri & Sat night & hang out in the lobby or gym. I have it on good authority that hanging out with people from Southern California, who might just happen to be there, is a good way to pass on err, I mean overcome your condition by associating yourself with their sunny disposition.

 

[ViperGTS]

I have a feeling the Pats will kick it into another gear starting Sunday. The Chargers are getting way too much knob slobbering for my liking. It won't be an easy game no doubt, but I think the Pats win by 2 scores minimum.

 

[SVN]

So at this point ready to give my thoughts and prediction on the game. More in depth than in any past post anyway.

I have heard said time and time again the Patriots are not in position to take advantage of LAC's weakness. Which is the OL. That is something i 100% do not believe. Their line right now is so bad you don't need to be good to take advantage... Yes a better line could do more... But with Milton Williams alone that creates a ton of problems for them to deal with. You don't need to have a great DL to take advantage of what is likely the worst OL in the NFL. That is missing the forest for the trees thinking. This line was going to be a problem for them regardless of who they faced in the playoffs. And it will be a problem when we play them, particularly now that Williams is back.

IDK who will play Sunday for sure yet... but i do know the Pats will get pressure and do much better stopping the run. Spillane will be back. Will Tonga? IDK. I hope so... but even without him this OL isn't going to have much success run blocking. People sleep on how good our run blocking was and forget most of those injured guys will be back for this game. The past 2 weeks the run game with the starters in for the opponent hasn't gone well. I don't think it will go well with the Chargers. Hampton is a good back... but I don't see him or anyone else doing enough on their team on the ground to keep them ahead of the sticks all that often through the run.

As for the DBs... that will be interesting. LAC have some good pass catchers on paper.. but McConkey isn't the guy they hoped he'd be after his end to last year. Allen is older and lacks explosion... less than 10 YPC isn't good. Q Johnson has kind of capped out as a meh #2. They have a good rookie TE in Gadsden but he isn't McBride or Kelce or anything... he isn't taking the game over. They basically have a lot of good options, but nothing they can rely on. They will be relying on Herbert to make the right reads and find the match ups that work. When he has enough time.

Overall this offense just isn't that scary on paper and the point totals back it up. They have had a few nice games but against any decent D they have been more or less held in check to the low 20s. I expect that to happen here. I don't see them scoring more than 24... that is probably their limit unless they get help. If not they probably shouldn't even hit that mark.

Our offense will be facing a good defensive unit. No question about it. Don't need to go into it exactly Pass rush. Run D. coverage. James. They have a very good defense. But the Pats have face a number of very good defenses this year. They tend to be able to score about 23 on anyone. And right now their O is playing the best it has been all year. LACs do a good job of holding teams down... Only gave up more than 27 twice and have given up 20 or less more than not. All that is fair to say. This will be a strength vs strength match up. But the Pats... don't need to win. They just need to hit 'Par'. If they score even 24 it puts the LACs in a very tough spot. If they score more and it starts to become a shoot out that massively favors them.

I will say the same thing about this game I did about the Bills game... but from the opposite perspective. I said on that Bills game the more points scored overall, the worse for us. This game is the opposite. The more points scored the better for us. If it turns into a 'who can hit 30 or more before the clock runs out... Pats win. If it is kept in the teens by both teams. LACs probably win it. Even if it is even at half time if both teams get off to a good offensive start and it is 14-14 at half time... That is exactly where the Pats want to be. See which offense can maintain that pace. I don't think it will be LAC.

Overall I have to say i feel good about the Pats this week. I've seen too much proof of them being about to cobble together respectable point totals vs good defenses. There is every reason to think they can do that again... and as long as no back breaking pick 6 or STs TD happens against the Pats... I think doing that again will be enough. On the LAC side... I have no reason to think they will be able to be more successful against our D than they have been against the majority of Ds they faced.

As a wild card on our side... Their STs unit is bad... we have been saving Marcus Jones this year... one of the best returners of all time to keep him healthy. I wouldn't at all be surprised for him to break a big one... maybe even score. I think he will at least put us in position where we are 1 first down away from a cheap 3 points at some point.

Pats 27 LAC 20.

Can the chargers D replicate what the bills did in the 2nd half in the 2nd game where maye couldnt get anything going ? They certainly might have the players for it. That could be the key .

 

[SVN]