Pursuit of the Bye (1st Seed)

[ScottishPatriots]

The bye is gone if the Chargers don't win tonight, they will rest everyone next week since they'll have nothing to play for.

If they win they're playing for the division.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

NFL point differential (PD) has significant predictive value, often better than just win-loss records, showing a team's true strength by indicating if they're winning due to dominance or luck in close games; teams with strong PDs tend to perform better in the future, while large discrepancies suggest regression is coming (e.g., getting blown out in losses means you might be due for closer wins). While not perfectly predictable (around 35% year-to-year), it's a key component in models like Pythagorean expectation for forecasting future success.
# of Close wins and point differential have been shown to be predicative of teams being a but lucky and then having a setback the following year.

Broncos are the exact type of team to take a step back next year, similar to the Chiefs last year that won all these close games.

11 of the 13 Broncos wins were 1 score. Denver's schedule is as weak as the Patriots.
Pats only have 7 wins within 1 score.

Broncos were +67 point differential thru 15 games, Pats are +110.

Patriots will face a tougher schedule next year; they likely have a worse record because of it but they likely make the playoffs because elite QB's make the playoffs most years and they are showing the ability to beat teams weaker than them at a good point differential. Pats are likely underrated because of schedule and Broncos overrated because of schedule.

Broncos: Weak Schedule, lots of 1 score wins, below average QB. Good chance they miss the playoffs next year.

This is useful information, but remember it does not always apply. Each team, and each game, has its own background, backdrop and story. That's why they play 'em.

That said, no surprise to me at all that Chiefs are already eliminated. It has happened a lot in the past to prior season's Super Bowl participants.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The bye is gone if the Chargers don't win tonight, they will rest everyone next week since they'll have nothing to play for.

If they win they're playing for the division.

I'm not ready to say bye bye to the bye until it's actually out of our reach. I can definitely see the Broncos losing, no matter who the Chargers put in there.

 

[4thQComeback]

I'm not ready to say bye bye to the bye until it's actually out of our reach. I can definitely see the Broncos losing, no matter who the Chargers put in there.

With a makeshift O-line, the chargers are going to roll into Denver and beat the Broncos with anyone they put in there. With the division on the line? Herbert will be running for his life.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Nice, the forum needed more Broncos fans

 

[Triumph]

NFL point differential (PD) has significant predictive value, often better than just win-loss records, showing a team's true strength by indicating if they're winning due to dominance or luck in close games; teams with strong PDs tend to perform better in the future, while large discrepancies suggest regression is coming (e.g., getting blown out in losses means you might be due for closer wins). While not perfectly predictable (around 35% year-to-year), it's a key component in models like Pythagorean expectation for forecasting future success.
# of Close wins and point differential have been shown to be predicative of teams being a but lucky and then having a setback the following year.

Broncos are the exact type of team to take a step back next year, similar to the Chiefs last year that won all these close games.

Sounds like the higher draft slot from winning makes it more difficult to acquire good players.

There are a multitude of reasons why a team like KC is scoring less this season. WR Rice was absent 6 games and returning from a 2024 injury. RB Pacheco was also retuning from 2024 injury and isnt the same player - rumor is that he is gone after 2025. The Chiefs had OT problems again. LT Simmons took off for a month for reasons that are unclear and then he suffered injury. The other OTs have been MIA too. KC was 15th in offense in 2024 and 20th in offense in 2025. So, yeah, they were scoring less in 2024 because key producers were absent and now those same players haven't returned to form in 2025.

Is this an indication that KC will score even less in 2026? NO. They are suppose to clean house. They are drafting 14th.

Also, winning creates higher salaries, coaches moving on to upward ;positions, players leaving because contract demands are not met.

11 of the 13 Broncos wins were 1 score. Denver's schedule is as weak as the Patriots.
Pats only have 7 wins within 1 score.

Denver has faced - Colts, Eagles, Texans, Packers, Jags.

Their schedule isn't remotely the same as NE. Add the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Chargers. Thats 5 - 2025 post season teams that theyve faced thus far. NE has faced 2 - 2025 post season teams - Steelers and Bills.

Broncos were +67 point differential thru 15 games, Pats are +110.

When the Pats beat the Bills by 3 this season, I did not see anyone sad on this board.

Over at 2 Bills, nobody complained about Buffalo winning by 4 a couple of weeks ago. Narrow wins build mental toughness that you can win any close fight. This has been displayed forever in virtually all sports. The 2001 Pats taking out the 2001 Rams by a FG. The Pats were 13 point underdogs before the game due to the Rams high scoring offense. The Bird Celtics facing the high scoring Johnson Lakers. The Celts slowed the game down so that the Lakers could not run and gun. Boxers that eliminate opponents in a couple of rounds finally face a Fighter who takes them the distance and the Champ loses.

Patriots will face a tougher schedule next year; they likely have a worse record because of it but they likely make the playoffs because elite QB's make the playoffs most years and they are showing the ability to beat teams weaker than them at a good point differential. Pats are likely underrated because of schedule and Broncos overrated because of schedule.

Broncos: Weak Schedule, lots of 1 score wins, below average QB. Good chance they miss the playoffs next year.

Bronco's beat the Texans 1st ranked defense by 3, the Eagles 4th ranked defense by 4 and the Packers 9th ranked defense by 8.

Thats good enough for me. Im hoping that if it comes to fruition, that the Pats can beat the Texans by 3.

 

[4thQComeback]

Sounds like the higher draft slot from winning makes it more difficult to acquire good players.

There are a multitude of reasons why a team like KC is scoring less this season. WR Rice was absent 6 games and returning from a 2024 injury. RB Pacheco was also retuning from 2024 injury and isnt the same player - rumor is that he is gone after 2025. The Chiefs had OT problems again. LT Simmons took off for a month for reasons that are unclear and then he suffered injury. The other OTs have been MIA too. KC was 15th in offense in 2024 and 20th in offense in 2025. So, yeah, they were scoring less in 2024 because key producers were absent and now those same players haven't returned to form in 2025.

Is this an indication that KC will score even less in 2026? NO. They are suppose to clean house. They are drafting 14th.

Also, winning creates higher salaries, coaches moving on to upward ;positions, players leaving because contract demands are not met.

Denver has faced - Colts, Eagles, Texans, Packers, Jags.

Their schedule isn't remotely the same as NE. Add the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Chargers. Thats 5 - 2025 post season teams that theyve faced thus far. NE has faced 2 - 2025 post season teams - Steelers and Bills.

When the Pats beat the Bills by 3 this season, I did not see anyone sad on this board.

Over at 2 Bills, nobody complained about Buffalo winning by 4 a couple of weeks ago. Narrow wins build mental toughness that you can win any close fight. This has been displayed forever in virtually all sports. The 2001 Pats taking out the 2001 Rams by a FG. The Pats were 13 point underdogs before the game due to the Rams high scoring offense. The Bird Celtics facing the high scoring Johnson Lakers. The Celts slowed the game down so that the Lakers could not run and gun. Boxers that eliminate opponents in a couple of rounds finally face a Fighter who takes them the distance and the Champ loses.

Bronco's beat the Texans 1st ranked defense by 3, the Eagles 4th ranked defense by 4 and the Packers 9th ranked defense by 8.

Thats good enough for me. Im hoping that if it comes to fruition, that the Pats can beat the Texans by 3.

Exactly right. Point differential means squat. You take the W and move on.

 

[KCSVEN]

Sounds like the higher draft slot from winning makes it more difficult to acquire good players.

There are a multitude of reasons why a team like KC is scoring less this season. WR Rice was absent 6 games and returning from a 2024 injury. RB Pacheco was also retuning from 2024 injury and isnt the same player - rumor is that he is gone after 2025. The Chiefs had OT problems again. LT Simmons took off for a month for reasons that are unclear and then he suffered injury. The other OTs have been MIA too. KC was 15th in offense in 2024 and 20th in offense in 2025. So, yeah, they were scoring less in 2024 because key producers were absent and now those same players haven't returned to form in 2025.

Is this an indication that KC will score even less in 2026? NO. They are suppose to clean house. They are drafting 14th.

Also, winning creates higher salaries, coaches moving on to upward ;positions, players leaving because contract demands are not met.

Denver has faced - Colts, Eagles, Texans, Packers, Jags.

Their schedule isn't remotely the same as NE. Add the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Chargers. Thats 5 - 2025 post season teams that theyve faced thus far. NE has faced 2 - 2025 post season teams - Steelers and Bills.

When the Pats beat the Bills by 3 this season, I did not see anyone sad on this board.

Over at 2 Bills, nobody complained about Buffalo winning by 4 a couple of weeks ago. Narrow wins build mental toughness that you can win any close fight. This has been displayed forever in virtually all sports. The 2001 Pats taking out the 2001 Rams by a FG. The Pats were 13 point underdogs before the game due to the Rams high scoring offense. The Bird Celtics facing the high scoring Johnson Lakers. The Celts slowed the game down so that the Lakers could not run and gun. Boxers that eliminate opponents in a couple of rounds finally face a Fighter who takes them the distance and the Champ loses.

Bronco's beat the Texans 1st ranked defense by 3, the Eagles 4th ranked defense by 4 and the Packers 9th ranked defense by 8.

Thats good enough for me. Im hoping that if it comes to fruition, that the Pats can beat the Texans by 3.

I have no idea why you are trying to argue against a proven statistical fact?

 

[KCSVEN]

Denver has faced - Colts, Eagles, Texans, Packers, Jags.

Their schedule isn't remotely the same as NE. Add the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Chargers. Thats 5 - 2025 post season teams that theyve faced thus far. NE has faced 2 - 2025 post season teams - Steelers and Bills.

What world are you living in?

Broncos SOS: .409
Pats SOS: .394
Broncos SOV: .353
Pats SOV: .370

 

[4thQComeback]

I have no idea why you are trying to argue against a proven

What world are you living in?

Broncos SOS: .409
Pats SOS: .394
Broncos SOV: .353
Pats SOV: .370

So you agree that the Broncos SOS was tougher but you continue to rely on points differential?
Very odd.

 

[Triumph]

I have no idea why you are trying to argue against a proven statistical fact?

I agree that 3 squared + 4 squared = 5 squared.

Pythagorean theorem

 

[Triumph]

So you agree that the Broncos SOS was tougher but you continue to rely on points differential?
Very odd.

Fantasy Football has taken over the world.

 

[Triumph]

What world are you living in?

Broncos SOS: .409
Pats SOS: .394
Broncos SOV: .353
Pats SOV: .370

So Denver hasnt faced 5 - 2025 post season teams?

OK

 

[Real fan 02]

Looking back on 2001, there was tragedy in the beginning of the season and plenty of adversity to face, but along with all that there was a ton of good fortune. You make your own good luck. You put yourself in a position to succeed, and if that opportunity presents itself, you are ready to take advantage of it.

No one realistically considered them a Super Bowl contender before and during most of the season.

This Patriots franchise has been here, several times before.

After that miserable loss to the Steelers, I said the Patriots looked like they were trying too hard. In retrospect, I think that may have been a good thing in the long run. In professional sports, desire, commitment and motivation make the difference in a business in which people are getting paid to do what they do.

100% correct. I've felt that this patiots team has so many similarities to the 01 team.. 01 had what 20 plus FA additions?

 

[4thQComeback]

Fantasy Football has taken over the world.

God help us.

 

[jdlboot14]

Chargers are so weak and worthless. They crumble EVERY year. If they could have avoided just one of the 20 stupid mistakes, they could have a division to compete for in DEN. But, seems Broncos have #1 locked up.
Only good news is it seems most likely we'll host the Chargers for the 1st round - which is probably the best chance at a win.
I'm not saying easy - cause Herbert could turn into Allen if he wants to - but the team is too dumb to figure that out, so we should have a good chance in NE in January.

 

[Real fan 02]

Chargers are so weak and worthless. They crumble EVERY year. If they could have avoided just one of the 20 stupid mistakes, they could have a division to compete for in DEN. But, seems Broncos have #1 locked up.
Only good news is it seems most likely we'll host the Chargers for the 1st round - which is probably the best chance at a win.
I'm not saying easy - cause Herbert could turn into Allen if he wants to - but the team is too dumb to figure that out, so we should have a good chance in NE in January.

Agreed here. LAC while not a push over is for a first round opponent the more favorable draw. If this match up remains i Like Vrabel, Josh and stretch to devise a game plan to beat the chargers..

Derwin is thier biggest threat on defense
Herbert doesn't want to leave the pocket..but can..

The rookie RB Hampton is thier biggest threat outside of Mconkey on offense.

We are banged up especially on defense.

We win today and if eagles beat bills we win the division and that gives guys another week of rest .

 

[KCSVEN]

So you agree that the Broncos SOS was tougher but you continue to rely on points differential?
Very odd.

That's not something I'm arguing at all. Why would SOS matter more than SOV?

The argument was the Broncos played a much tougher schedule than the Patriots and the point differential is because of that not because Broncos are overrated.

My argument is the fact the Broncos played a weak schedule and has a poor point differential and won many 1 score games is not a sustainable winning way to play and would expect higher likelihood than other teams to take a step back fin wins and losses next year when that luck doesn't repeat itself and schedule is harder. I say argument but that's just a proven statistical fact. Also leads to Broncos not being as good this year as the Win Loss record would indicate.

The fact the Patriots have been able to have a much larger point differential with a very similar schedule leads to the conclusion they are less likely to take a step back.

It's a 35% effect on things, it's not foolproof, just a fact.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Does a win today win the division?

 

[KCSVEN]

So Denver hasnt faced 5 - 2025 post season teams?

OK

Yes but 100% statistically irrelevant unlike point differential.

While tough schedules can prepare teams, data suggests there's no strong, consistent correlation between a tough regular-season schedule and more playoff success; some analytics show strength of schedule (SOS) has little predictive power for playoff wins, and teams with easier schedules often make deep runs, meaning good teams rise regardless of opponents, but it's their overall quality, not just schedule difficulty, that drives playoff success, with momentum often being a myth.