This has been brought up a bit. Where is Maye in this race? MAYE as well have a thread about it. Right now i see 8 players in the running... Mahomes will be the 9th once he gets a winning record. First I'll talk about what is IMO the clear current 8 then give my order after. This will include stat lines and some general thoughts both good and bad potentially. In Alphabetical order.
Allen - (only 5 games) 9 TDs 2 Ints 1,217 yards 70.4% 8.0YPA 3 rush TD 211rush yds 1 fumble (4-1 BUF) 108.5 Passer rating.
He plays tonight and that will help or hurt his case. Running is such a big part of his game and when you include those stats he looks a lot better. His offense is near the top in the league and he is doing it yet again with a subpar cast. But it isn't THAT bad. It gets thrown under the bus a little to elevate Allen more, but his line is really solid and he has reliable. Keys wins are the Ravens week 1, when they were still a playoff team with Lamar and fairly healthy going in. His lost to the Patriots is the main negative against him. It was arguably his most important game to that point and he didn't look great.
Darnold - 11 TDs 3 Ints 1,541 yards 70.8% 9.6YPA 40 rush yds (4-2 SEA) 115.8 Passer rating.
That YPA is pretty insane. Good cast, not great. Offense ranks 5th overall. He has played 4 good opponents. Beat the Steelers and Jags. But lost to the Bucs and 49ers. Can't really put that Bucs loss on him though. However losing to them and the 49ers is not great. Those are the 2 most important games on your schedule to this point, going 0-2 is not good.
Goff - 14 TDs 2 Ints 1,390 yards 75.9% 8.0YPA 16 rush yards (4-2 DET) 120.6 Passer rating. #2 best offense.
Also the league in passer rating (for active QBs) and passing TDs. He has put up great numbers but had a great cast to help him.. still. He would arguably be in the lead if not for one huge issue. In his 2 biggest games of the year he has come up short vs KC and GB. And worse, he scored only 30 points in them both combined. Can't be MVP if you do that. Next comes the Bucs. If he fails to produce in that one he is out of the running all together pretty much no matter what his stats say. Beating up on bad team with a great cast does not an MVP make.
Jones - 8 TDs 3 Ints 1,502 yards 71.7% 8.3YPA 4 rush TD 76 rush yds (5-1 IND) 105.1 Passer rating. #1 ranked offense.
Jones has not been given enough credit for his season so far, will it last? Probably not, but so far so good. Indy has THE BEST offense in the NFL (going by PPG which is what i tend to go by). Colts have a good cast, but you don't becomes the #1 offense alone, and i wouldn't call it great. They won the most important game on their schedule to date against the Broncos, but lost to the Rams. If there was one thing to hold against them, it would be while they have been kind of tested... not the way other teams have. The Broncos and LAR are pretty good, but they still feel like teams in that 2nd tier... could be wrong.
Love (only 5 games) 9 TDs 2 Ints 1,259 yards 70.1% 8.6YPA 88 rush yds 1 fumble (4-1 GB) 110.9 Passer rating. #8 best offense.
And he is doing it without a top 10 cast, though i hesitate to call them mid. Won the most important games on his schedule so far vs the Lions and WSH. You can't blame him for he tie to the cowboys really. He has just been really solid so far this year. He has one of the most solid cases, but i think he has lacked some big splash plays. Though that shouldn' disqualify him .
Maye 10 TDs 2 Ints 1,522 yards 73.2% 8.5YPA 2 rush TD 1 fumble 138 yds (4-2 NWE) 112.5 Passer rating. #11 offense.
Key win is the Bills, key loss is the Steelers, which you can blame on Maye a fair amount, though a lot of things went against him too, but still the int in the endzone was huge. His cast for all their improvement compared to last year is still the worst of anyone on this list. Run game is the worst of any MVP candidate and he is making his cast look better than they are, though they aren't horrible. Has the best single win of anyone on this list vs the Bills as GB's D had more to due with their win over the Lions than their offense IMO. So that is maybe the strongest part of his case.
Mayfield 12 TDs 1 Int 1,539 yards 66.2% 7.9YPA 158 rush yds (5-1 TB) 108.5 passer rating. #6 offense
Key wins Seahawks and 49ers. Key loss is Eagles. Mayfield really has turned it around recently. And while you might think his cast was stacked if you were paying attention they have been dealing with injuries all year, so it is has been pretty mid overall. Still good, but mid to this point. It makes one wonder if he can keep this up now when they get right what kind of numbers they'll put up. His win vs the Seahawks was his best of the year and the kind win MVPs have. His win vs the 49ers was good too, but turnovers, penalties, and the defense getting 6 sacks kind of made a bit more of a passenger. Not to say he wasn't still the biggest part, but it is worthy of note i suppose. Also unlike some of these guys who've had very good seasons but don't pass the 'MVP eyeball test' . He does.
Stafford - 12 TDs 2 Ints 1,684 yards 66.5% 8.1YPA 1 fumble -3 rush yds (4-2 LAR) 106.2 Passer rating. It is worth noting LAR are scoring only 23.3 PPG which puts them in about the exact middle of the league. So while Stafford is putting up impressive numbers, it isn't translating to the actual results they'd want. Key games.. Lost to the Eagles and 49ers, beat the colts. It is worth noting in their 2 losses t he offense did okay and it was more the D that let them down. The Eagles game probably should have been a win. Kind of of a fluke ending. He's had good support all year offensively.
I will wait for the Bills to play to give my thoughts on the current order, but I'll put this up as i have it right now as i think this is going to be a fun topic to discuss all year. Early thoughts though? Mayefield, Maye, Allen and Love to me right at this moment feel a bit ahead of the rest.
