Are we currently the best team in the NFL?

[n1997y]

We are better than the Eagles and Packers tonight.

Low bar

 

[n1997y]

I think this game singlehandedly set offensive football back 100 years.
Talk about UGLY!

It was offensive all right.

 

[BobDigital]

DVOA is in the running for most useless made-up stat in football talk. Completely worthless…

It is a pretty good stat usually, but like any stat trying to be all inclusive metric it lacks the context and doesn't take certain important things into account.

For instance it doesn't care if a team is improving over the year or getting healthy. It just gives you an average. Also it doesn't take style into account. Teams that are built to run it up vs bad teams are rewarded while teams built to be more consistent week in week out in a measured approach may get penalized.

Things like that.

 

[Dec54]

It was offensive all right.

It was painful, I had to fast forward.

 

[Triumph]

Maye struggled in the rain vs Tampa early in the game.

A 51% completion rate is poor for a passer as accurate as Maye is. More than 50% of his Tampa passing yards came from 3 plays. That isn't going to happen every week especially heading into December.

The Pats run game is still a concern. Jennings got dinged up and Johnson didnt deliver.

All this "Best Team" talk and Super Bowl get the champagne ready is jumping to conclusions.

 

[PatsFan2]

Maye struggled in the rain vs Tampa early in the game.

A 51% completion rate is poor for a passer as accurate as Maye is. More than 50% of his Tampa passing yards came from 3 plays. That isn't going to happen every week especially heading into December.

The Pats run game is still a concern. Jennings got dinged up and Johnson didnt deliver.

All this "Best Team" talk and Super Bowl get the champagne ready is jumping to conclusions.

Make us really think how Good Kayshon Boutte is developing: all those little chinks in Maye's armor showed up with him out. Get healthy Kayshon.

 

[PatsFan2]

Maye struggled in the rain vs Tampa early in the game.

A 51% completion rate is poor for a passer as accurate as Maye is. More than 50% of his Tampa passing yards came from 3 plays. That isn't going to happen every week especially heading into December.

The Pats run game is still a concern. Jennings got dinged up and Johnson didnt deliver.

All this "Best Team" talk and Super Bowl get the champagne ready is jumping to conclusions.

Really hope that was a spring board game for KW: he has Big Play written all over him.

 

[mayoclinic]

It was offensive all right.

The NFL wants offensive clashes, they got one.

 

[Dec54]

I'm going to say "no", I think a couple of the top NFC teams are a smidge ahead, but probably not by a whole lot. Which is really saying something.

No for me too. I think the Rams will be up there, a good balanced team. I know the season has gone beyond any ones expectation. But we are in a rebuild, so perhaps we should keep our feet a bit firmer on the ground.

 

[TommyD4207]

Since Christian Gonzalez returned, the Patriots are 7-0.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Eagles by far the best team. Then Chefs. Then Rams. Then Seattle. You could put the Pats at #5??

 

[mayoclinic]

Since Christian Gonzalez returned, the Patriots are 7-0.

Pats also undefeated when EC3 active.

 

[Nikolai]

It is a pretty good stat usually, but like any stat trying to be all inclusive metric it lacks the context and doesn't take certain important things into account.

For instance it doesn't care if a team is improving over the year or getting healthy. It just gives you an average. Also it doesn't take style into account. Teams that are built to run it up vs bad teams are rewarded while teams built to be more consistent week in week out in a measured approach may get penalized.

Things like that.

I see DVOA as adjacent to an analytic tool for predictive analysis. When used with other similar metrics, you can actually start to get somewhere with projecting game outcomes.

I kinda messed with similar concepts prior to SB LI and projected our D would hold Atlanta's vaunted O to 17. It wound up being 21, but some of the per player stats (Matt Ryan's yards for example) were almost 99% accurate. I didn't account for a TFB pick 6, otherwise, the score prediction would have been more accurate at 30-24.

Thread 'F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs. Falcons'

Feb 2, 2017

Disclaimer: The game is played on the field. This is literally the outcome of ****ing with numbers, so take it for what it's worth.

The "TL;DR version" first (a more "detailed" explanation and a summary of the methodology below):

Ever since the Pats and Falcons punched their ticket to the Super Bowl, I've been making a mantra of my prediction; 31-23. I freely admitted that it was just a hunch. But I wanted to dig into the numbers, just to see if they undercut the media narratives following the Championship Games. The results were surprising to me.

The general idea was...

• Nikolai
• Replies: 46
• Forum: PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum

 

[signbabybrady]

Pats also undefeated when EC3 active.

Lol

I think their might be a little more cause behind one of these things.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see DVOA as adjacent to an analytic tool for predictive analysis. When used with other similar metrics, you can actually start to get somewhere with projecting game outcomes.

I kinda messed with similar concepts prior to SB LI and projected our D would hold Atlanta's vaunted O to 17. It wound up being 21, but some of the per player stats (Matt Ryan's yards for example) were almost 99% accurate. I didn't account for a TFB pick 6, otherwise, the score prediction would have been more accurate at 30-24.

Thread 'F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs. Falcons'

Feb 2, 2017

Disclaimer: The game is played on the field. This is literally the outcome of ****ing with numbers, so take it for what it's worth.

The "TL;DR version" first (a more "detailed" explanation and a summary of the methodology below):

Ever since the Pats and Falcons punched their ticket to the Super Bowl, I've been making a mantra of my prediction; 31-23. I freely admitted that it was just a hunch. But I wanted to dig into the numbers, just to see if they undercut the media narratives following the Championship Games. The results were surprising to me.

The general idea was...

• Nikolai
• Replies: 46
• Forum: PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum

I prefer a ouija board.

 

[mayoclinic]

Lol

I think their might be a little more cause behind one of these things.

Obviously true.

But I also believe that guys like EC3 have an impact beyond their production. They are willing to throw themselves under the enemy tanks if needed, they always give 110%. It has an effect on the other guys. Recent reports of the team choosing not to shorten coaching sessions to get extra rest on a short week and to practice outside in the cold are indicative of this.

I'll still take having Gonzo back any day, but I like have 1-2 Chisms on a team.

 

[Nikolai]

I prefer a ouija board.

Last time I did that, Ray Lewis won a Super Bowl...

...at least he wasn't killing guys...I think...

 

[mayoclinic]

Seriously, the Pats are in the zone right now. So focused. So much believing in themselves, but not over-confident, taking nothing for granted. Putting in the work, trusting in the process, believing in the coaching staff. Lots to clean up, but always making enough plays to win.

Are they the best? No idea.

But until proven otherwise, I have to believe they will make enough plays to beat the other team, whoever that may be, including Philly and KC.

 

[PlainOldEd]

Eagles by far the best team. Then Chefs. Then Rams. Then Seattle. You could put the Pats at #5??

of those 4 the Rams and Seattle have looked the best to me so far. And Sam Darnold will probably fold under pressure, so I'd go Rams.

 

[billikens]

I'm cautiously optimistic. What I like about this team is the buy-in and that there are no superstars (although Maye is quickly becoming one). But it is a team sport and a tight team is better than a team with a bunch of superstars. Every week there are different players stepping up, making them hard to game plan against. A well-rounded team is better than a team that has one or two obvious strengths, which can be focused on to cripple their success.

This week it was the rookies (Henderson, Williams, Ponder, Woodson, Campbell, Wilson). Interesting how after the game the locker room was electric because the rest of the team were genuinely excited about how the rookies stepped up. And now the news where they want to practice outside in the cold although the indoor practice facility was an option and to not cut meetings short although it is a short week. This goes way farther than Mahomes' resume and Jonathon Taylor's play of late. A psyched, tight team in this sport is just going to be harder to beat.

That being said, there is still almost half a season to go, and the ****ty weather is just starting so we'll see how they play from here on out. But the best way to play good in the cold is to practice in the cold. While my expectations have really already been exceeded this year and I don't want to get my hopes up, there doesn't appear to be any indication they are getting complacent or taking their foot off the gas. We'll see where they are when they hit the bye week, but don't be surprised if they're still #1 in Division and Conference.

Go Pats!