Patriots Redzone offense...oh boy...

[Real fan 02]

I think there are a couple things that lead to the 9 or 10 win expectations, better coaching, weak schedule, spent a ton in FA, but the number one thing for me is the offensive line. Now they didn't add any All Pros, nor do I believe Will Campbell is the next Orlando Pace but they did add smart competent starters to the worst Oline I've ever seen. The amount of times stunts, blitzes, and twists got home or had 1 guy being blocked by 3 was frankly disturbing and high school level at best. The most recent forged in foxboro episode has just reinforced my opinion the offensive line will be competent at worst compared to the flaming dumpster fire that was last year. That alone, just going from all time awful to say 20th best in the league will make a HUGE difference in wins, like +5 IMO. Assuming health of course, to be fair to last year they were hiring guys off the street to start that week at points due to injuries.

Exactly correct. Go back to last season the Jags game. A Vrabel coached team does not get ran on 17 times in a row. Simply better coaching and better play all around from the entire team can equate to wins. Vrabel's establishing a winning culture. We've become a losing culture the last few seasons.

 

[PatsFan2]

I think expectations are still too high if you think the Patriots are winning 10 games this season.

The Patriots lost most of their games because of talent deficiency. The bad coaching was just the glaring turd on top of the poop sandwich.

How much of that talent deficiency has been fixed is yet to be seen.

Coaching should be better that's a given. But that doesn't guarantee us +6 wins from a very bad team last year that honestly should have finished with the worst record in the league if it were not for Mayo's braindead anti-tank game.

Buffalo gladly assisted us in our misery by subbing in their 3rd string QB to give us a dumb win that actually made our future worse. Imagine on draft day being in position to trade up or down from the 1st overall selection in each round? Well we're moving on from that but I think the point is clear. We pretty much deserved to finish dead last in the NFL last year but Buffalo gave us a bone because they didn't need to win for playoff seeding.

I see a Top 10 Defense at the very least barring injuries...a 80% S Diggs is all we need to get our Passing game to respectability. We should be able to run the football some...That said: if you can play Tough Defense; run the football you should be in every game.

 

[Real fan 02]

I see a Top 10 Defense at the very least barring injuries...a 80% S Diggs is all we need to get our Passing game to respectability. We should be able to run the football some...That said: if you can play Tough Defense; run the football you should be in every game.

PF2, twin- I don't see how this team CAN'T win 10 games. Vrabel's not settling for any BS if guys aren't getting the job done they won't be on the field. Night and day difference from last seasons show.

You can already see the seriousness in wich guys are approaching things. Vrabel's a player's coach as well as a demanding coach. Vrabel's coaching style reminds more of Parcells for some reason.

 

[PatsFan2]

PF2, twin- I don't see how this team CAN'T win 10 games. Vrabel's not settling for any BS if guys aren't getting the job done they won't be on the field. Night and day difference from last seasons show.

You can already see the seriousness in wich guys are approaching things. Vrabel's a player's coach as well as a demanding coach. Vrabel's coaching style reminds more of Parcells for some reason.

Week 5 Game against Buffalo is the barometer game for me...that game will tell how close or how far we are. I think the Jets and Miami are no contest.

 

[Real fan 02]

Week 5 Game against Buffalo is the barometer game for me...that game will tell how close or how far we are. I think the Jets and Miami are no contest.

Yes, I agree. What i am optimistic about is Having a DC in Williams that is actually going to be able to affect Miami offense same for Buffalo. The key with Buffalo is James cook.. you want to take him away and have Allen give us opportunities by throwing. With the Jets make fields strictly a psser.. take his running lanes away .

 

[VJCPatriot]

The coaching was THAT bad. We lost games before they started.
We have replaced and upgraded half of the starters. We lost no one of consequence. We added a lot of depth players and move former poor starters into reserve roles where they are at least capable. The talent level on this team is night and day different from last year. And the most important measure of the talent level of a football team is the 2-3 best players they put on the field but the 2-3 worst. Bad players hurt a team much more than good players help it.
We have 8 games against teams who won 5 or fewer games. The level of improvement needed to win those 8 is not drastic.
I can’t imagine why you would want to have expectations lower than 10 wins. If the coach was the right hire, the qb is anywhere near what we think he is and the off season moves were fairly successful anything less would be a major failure.

Rome wasn't built in a day. We'll just have to agree to disagree. This is the 1st year of the rebuild under Vrabel. I think he's going to be a far better architect than Mayo. But it takes time to turn things around, instill a new culture, install new systems., get the players used to the new coaching staff, etc.

Just Josh McDaniel's complex offense alone will be a challenge for Maye and his core group of WRs to absorb. I expect his starting WRs to be Diggs and Kyle Williams. Two players he has never played with before. That being said I understand why people want to feel optimistic. I just feel if we are being based and realistic a +6 win swing is far too much to expect in the first year. Give these players time to grow and develop. There will be bumps in the road but I'm sure also more excitement and good moments for us to enjoy than last year.

 

[TommyD4207]

TE will be the LT heading into next year’s draft. And watch the offense sputtered, esp in the red zone, if old man Henry is hampered by injury. He’s Maye’s best bud and security blanket. Should have a career year.

Your headcannon is an interesting place to be, I'd imagine.

He's 30 and missed 3 games due to injury in the last 5 years.

 

[Ring 6]

Rome wasn't built in a day. We'll just have to agree to disagree. This is the 1st year of the rebuild under Vrabel. I think he's going to be a far better architect than Mayo. But it takes time to turn things around, instill a new culture, install new systems., get the players used to the new coaching staff, etc.

Just Josh McDaniel's complex offense alone will be a challenge for Maye and his core group of WRs to absorb. I expect his starting WRs to be Diggs and Kyle Williams. Two players he has never played with before. That being said I understand why people want to feel optimistic. I just feel if we are being based and realistic a +6 win swing is far too much to expect in the first year. Give these players time to grow and develop. There will be bumps in the road but I'm sure also more excitement and good moments for us to enjoy than last year.

Many teams turn it around in year 1. Most of them had much less infusion of talent.
Here is a partial list of coaches with 6+ game turnarounds in year 1.

Washington Quinn (last year)
Miami Sparano
Jets Parcells
Jets Bowles
Jets. Mangini
Raven Harbaugh
Bengals Lewis
Houston Ryans
Houston. BOB
Indy Reich
Indy Pagano
Jags Pederson
Jags Marone
KC Reid
Chargers Harbaugh (last year)
Eagles chip kelly
Packers LaFleur
Bears Nagy
Atlanta. Smith
Atlanta. Mora jr
Carolina Fox
NO Payton
Rams. McVay
SF Harbaugh

That’s 24 examples. It’s not the rarity you imply.

 

[Ring 6]

Many teams turn it around in year 1. Most of them had much less infusion of talent.
Here is a partial list of coaches with 6+ game turnarounds in year 1.

Washington Quinn (last year)
Miami Sparano
Jets Parcells
Jets Bowles
Jets. Mangini
Raven Harbaugh
Bengals Lewis
Houston Ryans
Houston. BOB
Indy Reich
Indy Pagano
Jags Pederson
Jags Marone
KC Reid
Chargers Harbaugh (last year)
Eagles chip kelly
Packers LaFleur
Bears Nagy
Atlanta. Smith
Atlanta. Mora jr
Carolina Fox
NO Payton
Rams. McVay
SF Harbaugh

That’s 24 examples. It’s not the rarity you imply.

Deeper data.
This is just AFC because it took longer to tally.

Since 2006 there have been 32 new hired head coaches on teams that won 5 or less games.
13 of them (41%) improved by 6 or more wins in their 1st season. The average increase was 4.

I would say that something that happens 41% of the time would disprove that it’s unlikely to happen because you can’t turn it around in one year, almost half have.

 

[MrTibbs]

Week 5 Game against Buffalo is the barometer game for me...that game will tell how close or how far we are. I think the Jets and Miami are no contest.

Disagree about Miami. No matter what kind of teams the Patriots have had through the years (even with Brady), the Dolphins games are ALWAYS a tough contest especially down in Miami.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Many teams turn it around in year 1. Most of them had much less infusion of talent.
Here is a partial list of coaches with 6+ game turnarounds in year 1.

Washington Quinn (last year)
Miami Sparano
Jets Parcells
Jets Bowles
Jets. Mangini
Raven Harbaugh
Bengals Lewis
Houston Ryans
Houston. BOB
Indy Reich
Indy Pagano
Jags Pederson
Jags Marone
KC Reid
Chargers Harbaugh (last year)
Eagles chip kelly
Packers LaFleur
Bears Nagy
Atlanta. Smith
Atlanta. Mora jr
Carolina Fox
NO Payton
Rams. McVay
SF Harbaugh

That’s 24 examples. It’s not the rarity you imply.

Your data is far from complete in order to prove your point. You have 24 example over a period of how many years? Now copare that to the number of total teams combined in these years. Divide 24 by the number and you have a working percentage. Also, is the +6 game actually a turnaround? So a team 1-15 becomes 6-10. This is a turnaround?

The other problem is that you seem to think a turnaround is just having one good season.

• Miami Sparano went 11-5, 7-9, 7-9, 4-9 fired.
  
  Todd Bowles went 10-6, 5-11, 5-11, 4-12, fired

Rat Mangini went 10-6, 4-12, 9-7, fired

There are other fake turnarounds on your list that will kill your stats and claims. You do show a good about of turnarounds, but you don't have 24 examples of a % of teams over the years it spans.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Deeper data.
This is just AFC because it took longer to tally.

Since 2006 there have been 32 new hired head coaches on teams that won 5 or less games.
13 of them (41%) improved by 6 or more wins in their 1st season. The average increase was 4.

I would say that something that happens 41% of the time would disprove that it’s unlikely to happen because you can’t turn it around in one year, almost half have.

A turnaround is not just having 4-6 more wins next season. If a teams has 0-3 wins, winning 4 more is not a tunraround. It means nothing if the team flops the next season or two as well.

 

[dliverey44]

Rome wasn't built in a day. We'll just have to agree to disagree. This is the 1st year of the rebuild under Vrabel. I think he's going to be a far better architect than Mayo. But it takes time to turn things around, instill a new culture, install new systems., get the players used to the new coaching staff, etc.

Just Josh McDaniel's complex offense alone will be a challenge for Maye and his core group of WRs to absorb. I expect his starting WRs to be Diggs and Kyle Williams. Two players he has never played with before. That being said I understand why people want to feel optimistic. I just feel if we are being based and realistic a +6 win swing is far too much to expect in the first year. Give these players time to grow and develop. There will be bumps in the road but I'm sure also more excitement and good moments for us to enjoy than last year.

Normally I would agree but with our schedule I can't see us losing more than 6 games. Look at the schedule and give me your real guess.
Raiders 1-0
Dolphins 1-1
Steelers 1-2
Panthers 2-2
Bills 2-3
Saints 3-3
Titans 4-3
Browns 5-3
Falcons 6-3
Tampa 6-4
Jets 7-4
Bengals 8-4
Giants 9-4
Bye
Bills 9-5
Ravens 9-6
Jets 10-6
Dolphins 11-6

I feel like this is pretty realistic

 

[Ring 6]

A turnaround is not just having 4-6 more wins next season. If a teams has 0-3 wins, winning 4 more is not a tunraround. It means nothing if the team flops the next season or two as well.

You should read before you post. The discussion was literally a response to a poster saying a 6 win improvement in the 1st year of a new HC is unrealistic.

 

[Ring 6]

Your data is far from complete in order to prove your point. You have 24 example over a period of how many years? Now copare that to the number of total teams combined in these years. Divide 24 by the number and you have a working percentage. Also, is the +6 game actually a turnaround? So a team 1-15 becomes 6-10. This is a turnaround?

The other problem is that you seem to think a turnaround is just having one good season.

• Miami Sparano went 11-5, 7-9, 7-9, 4-9 fired.
  
  Todd Bowles went 10-6, 5-11, 5-11, 4-12, fired

Rat Mangini went 10-6, 4-12, 9-7, fired

There are other fake turnarounds on your list that will kill your stats and claims. You do show a good about of turnarounds, but you don't have 24 examples of a % of teams over the years it spans.

My data is that it happens many times. If you want different data, find it and post it.
6-1 =5

The discussion was about the first year improvement with a new coaching staff.

 

[Real fan 02]

Rome wasn't built in a day. We'll just have to agree to disagree. This is the 1st year of the rebuild under Vrabel. I think he's going to be a far better architect than Mayo. But it takes time to turn things around, instill a new culture, install new systems., get the players used to the new coaching staff, etc.

Just Josh McDaniel's complex offense alone will be a challenge for Maye and his core group of WRs to absorb. I expect his starting WRs to be Diggs and Kyle Williams. Two players he has never played with before. That being said I understand why people want to feel optimistic. I just feel if we are being based and realistic a +6 win swing is far too much to expect in the first year. Give these players time to grow and develop. There will be bumps in the road but I'm sure also more excitement and good moments for us to enjoy than last year.

While I agree with your sentiments. I'd mention we are more in a redirection than a rebuild. We've been essentially rebuilding since Brady left. What is encouraging is that most of the issues the teams had is self inflicted.

Go back to the 2022 off season I honestly feel wasn't taken seriously having Patricia and judge in thier roles. Players dont respect coaches who have not done something on the offensive side of ball so that season was doomed from the start essentially. Then 2023 hiring Bill O'Brien we thought ok he'll get the offense back on track. It was worse.

Obviously last season was a mistake hiring mayo and the dysfunctional operation. We won 8 games in two seasons. We've been atrocious at home, fans leaving in game.. empty seats.. showed flashes of how Sullivan stadium used to be for a while.. now we have Vrabel a players coach, but also a no-nonsense coach who is going to hold his staff, and players accountable we are in much better direction than the past 5 years. You can sense it as a fan guys are focused and taking things seriously. They feel the pressure of wanting to win.

 

[PatsFan2]

Disagree about Miami. No matter what kind of teams the Patriots have had through the years (even with Brady), the Dolphins games are ALWAYS a tough contest especially down in Miami.

I don't think this Miami Team is good their Defense is garbage. Tua's win streak will be over in the Vrabel era.

 

[PatsFan2]

Normally I would agree but with our schedule I can't see us losing more than 6 games. Look at the schedule and give me your real guess.
Raiders 1-0
Dolphins 1-1
Steelers 1-2
Panthers 2-2
Bills 2-3
Saints 3-3
Titans 4-3
Browns 5-3
Falcons 6-3
Tampa 6-4
Jets 7-4
Bengals 8-4
Giants 9-4
Bye
Bills 9-5
Ravens 9-6
Jets 10-6
Dolphins 11-6

I feel like this is pretty realistic

We are Not! losing to the Steeler @ Home book it. I see a 4-0 Start early Dolphins Game Advantaged Pats.

 

[Real fan 02]

I don't think this Miami Team is good their Defense is garbage. Tua's win streak will be over in the Vrabel era.

Tua had beaten us we have not beaten tua.. imagine that.. we have beaten Allen, Jackson, Herbert for example but not Tua... that changes week 2..

 

[imahobgoblin]

My data is that it happens many times. If you want different data, find it and post it.
6-1 =5

The discussion was about the first year improvement with a new coaching staff.

You don't even seem to be intelligent enough to understand what I wrote. Your data is trash and means nothing. You won't even address the things I mentioned which means you also know it trash. Lol. Why are you ignoring the coaches I listed that went on to show they stunk? lol.