A Different View On Our Three starting WR's (presuming health)

[Toofy]

This is weird. But there is nothing wrong with that, especially during Pride month.

Nah.. as a 40 year old he seems to be getting better when for most of us it reverses.. Benjamin button effect

 

[Real fan 02]

This is weird. But there is nothing wrong with that, especially during Pride month.

 

[Real fan 02]

Nah.. as a 40 year old he seems to be getting better when for most of us it reverses.. Benjamin button effect

Vrabel’s closer to 50...

 

[Huckleberry1]

I’m looking at it in terms of the season, not just who starts week 1. For me it’s Diggs and Williams outside, Chism in the slot, with Hollins, Boutte, and Douglas all getting reps. Polk, Baler, and Bourne will be released, unless they can get a late rd pick for Bourne. This is a new regime, and they have no attachment to the 24’ drafft picks. And the fact that they don’t contribute on special teams dooms them when it comes to making the 53.

 

[jmt57]

While I have high longterm hopes for Kyle Williams, our collective expectations may be a bit high.

He's a third round rookie WR.

Many on the forum have called for Bourne to be traded, but I think mgteich has a valid point in retaining him instead.
I was initially on the 'trade Bourne' train, but at this point I'm reconsidering - especially since we don't know for sure that Diggs will be 100% healthy by week one.

For the sake of comparison our top 2024 WRs had 66, 43, 28 and 12 receptions.

From the 2024 draft, 3rd round WRs had 3, 4, 0, 37 and 18 receptions.
That's an average of 13, and a mean of 4 catches. By contrast Ja'Lynn Polk had 12 receptions last year.

From the 2023 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 47, 23, 21, 68, 38 and 19 receptions.
Much better, an average of 34, and more in line with what you would want - but overall still not worthy of being a #2.

From the 2022 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 7, 2, 24, and 1 receptions.
Awful, and even the top producer was not all that special.

From the 2021 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 33, 12, 4, 33 and 10 receptions.
That's an average of 18.4, which would be 4th best on the 2024 Pats.

From the 2020 draft, 3rd round rookie WRs had 28, 11 and 20 receptions.
That is an average of 20, which again would have only ranked 4th best on last year's team.

So that's the last five years of data on third round wide receivers.


Williams has the most potential, but I do not want to count on him being the #2 WR - not yet.

If Diggs can go right away, great.
If Williams can contribute right away, great.
But I'm not going to count on either or both of those things happening.
Sadly, until proven otherwise, Douglas, Bourne and Boutte are the Pats top WRs.
At some point that will change to Diggs, Williams and Douglas/Chism.

 

[farn]

Am I the only 1 who feels like Vrabel has aged like fine wine ... He looks more a stud right now from a looks perspective as compared to his youthful days ...

If he were to frequent the Liquor Dome in downtown Halifax tomorrow night, he’d have good options - even at his age.

(Yes, « why would anyone ever go to the Dome ? » is a very valid question and one I’ve asked more than once in the past…)

 

[n1997y]

If he were to frequent the Liquor Dome in downtown Halifax tomorrow night, he’d have good options - even at his age.

(Yes, « why would anyone ever go to the Dome ? » is a very valid question and one I’ve asked more than once in the past…)

Your assertion in the first sentence answers your question in the second sentence…

So where is this place? Asking for a friend…

 

[Wozzy]

Douglas…. and there is no debate.

 

[Triumph]

The 2025 NEP WR group is unproven just like always.

Looks good on paper.

1 Diggs - Coming off injury and is out there Hoe Boating. He has to stay healthy and out of trouble for next 3 months.
2 Williams - Just another PATS draft pick destined for greatness.
3 Douglas - Hes solid, but not a game changer.
4 Plug and Play - Hollins, Bourne, Boutte, Polk, Baker
5 The undrafted and walk ons.

 

[signbabybrady]

The 2025 NEP WR group is unproven just like always.

Looks good on paper.

1 Diggs - Coming off injury and is out there Hoe Boating. He has to stay healthy and out of trouble for next 3 months.
2 Williams - Just another PATS draft pick destined for greatness.
3 Douglas - Hes solid, but not a game changer.
4 Plug and Play - Hollins, Bourne, Boutte, Polk, Baker
5 The undrafted and walk ons.

Hopefully the numbers game helps us find a functional group. I see the Tiers a little different:
1) Diggs I'm now more worried about off the field than health. Sounds and looks like he'll be ready for Training camp week 1 for sure.

I would put Pop in this group too. He's produced 2 years in a row and has no other issues. I almost put him ahead of Diggs for the proven category because Diggs has things to prove health wise.

2) Williams - He still has everything to prove but very little to discredit him and he's looked good in OTAs.

3) Plug and Play as you put it but I'm only putting Hollins, Bourne, and Boutte in this Tier Polk or Baker aren't plug and play.

4) Chism, Boutte, and Baker young guys that hopefully we can develop. I put Chism first intentionally since there is no reason to be down on him.

5) the rest but I doubt anyone else emerges. That gives us 9 guys to find 5 and hopefully get 1 or 2 on our practice squad.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Demario Douglas is the last rookie starter to have more than 400 yards since 2013. Wow! You can throw Mitchell in there as well if you want to consider him a starter (3rd targeted WR).

There’s been a major drought in finding competent starting rookie WR’s in NE since 2002. Williams should be the starter, but we routinely get reasons of something holding the player back. It always meant the player was a bust. We will know very quickly in preseason, whether he is going to be a starter/get playing time or not.

Diggs, Williams and Douglas should be the starters.

 

[signbabybrady]

Demario Douglas is the last rookie starter to have more than 400 yards since 2013. Wow! You can throw Mitchell in there as well if you want to consider him a starter (3rd targeted WR).

There’s been a major drought in finding competent starting rookie WR’s in NE since 2002. Williams should be the starter, but we routinely get reasons of something holding the player back. It always meant the player was a bust. We will know very quickly in preseason, whether he is going to be a starter/get playing time or not.

Diggs, Williams and Douglas should be the starters.

400 yards isn't a high bar but you narrow the window too much limiting it to starters. Branch wouldn't qualify since Troy and Patten were starters. And I went straight to Branch because I think Williams and Branch are decent comps.

Who else is missed? Tompkins maybe. Can't be many.

 

[mgteich]

Hopefully the numbers game helps us find a functional group. I see the Tiers a little different:
1) Diggs I'm now more worried about off the field than health. Sounds and looks like he'll be ready for Training camp week 1 for sure.

I would Pop in this group too. He's produced 2 years in a row and has no other issues. I almost put him ahead of Diggs for the proven category because Diggs has things to prove health wise.

2) Williams - He still has everything to prove but very little to discredit him and he's looked good in OTAs.

3) Plug and Play as you put but I'm only putting Hollins, Bourne, and Boutte in this Tier Polk or Baker aren't plug and play.

4) Chism, Boutte, and Baker young guys that hopefully we can develop. I put Chism first intentionally since there reason to be down on him.

5) the rest but I doubt anyone else emerges. That gives us 9 guys to find 5 and hopefully get 1 or 2 on our practice squad.

I (and much of the media) tend to value Pop less than you do. To me, it not all clear that he will be one of the best 3 to start with Diggs and Williams. If both Diggs and Williams are even close to what we hope they are, we have a fine top 2.

Who adds the most to a top performing Diggs and Williams?

You seem to say Douglas, as many others do.

I don't have the answer. However, I think that Hollins (if healthy) or Bourne give us a better starting 3. And if healthy, they make a fine top 4.
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That leaves plenty of room for the rest to compete for a roster spot or two or three (3 if someone isn't healthy)

 

[Wozzy]

A passing attack needs good scheme, play calling, blocking and QB play… writing off receivers who were here before Vrabel’s arrival or suggesting they’re lesser makes no sense.

If all of these ^ things come together the receiving crew will be successful and reach their potential.

The last good season Bourne had was under McDaniels, Douglas had been good in a bad passing attack but hasn’t had a breakout season.

Fix the precursors to a good passing attack and the receivers… the last element that has to do their job well, will thrive and max out their potential.

 

[mgteich]

Demario Douglas is the last rookie starter to have more than 400 yards since 2013. Wow! You can throw Mitchell in there as well if you want to consider him a starter (3rd targeted WR).

There’s been a major drought in finding competent starting rookie WR’s in NE since 2002. Williams should be the starter, but we routinely get reasons of something holding the player back. It always meant the player was a bust. We will know very quickly in preseason, whether he is going to be a starter/get playing time or not.

Diggs, Williams and Douglas should be the starters.

Douglas should be thanked for his being among the best of a really terrible WR corps. That fact doesn't qualify him to be a starter on a team competing for the playoffs and beyond.
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[Wozzy]

This could be uncomfortable…

heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/tyquan-thornton-standout-chiefs-otas/

www.the-sun.com/sport/14396419/forgoten-kansas-city-chiefs-star-tyquan-thornton-patrick-mahomes/

 

[signbabybrady]

I (and much of the media) tend to value Pop less than you do. To me, it not all clear that he will be one of the best 3 to start with Diggs and Williams. If both Diggs and Williams are even close to what we hope they are, we have a fine top 2.

Who adds the most to a top performing Diggs and Williams?

You seem to say Douglas, as many others do.

I don't have the answer. However, I think that Hollins (if healthy) or Bourne give us a better starting 3. And if healthy, they make a fine top 4.
=====
That leaves plenty of room for the rest to compete for a roster spot or two or three (3 if someone isn't healthy)

Honestly it's mostly just hesitation to put a 3rd rounder ahead of him yet.

Despite injury and the boat I still put Diggs ahead of him. (I did say almost)

I don't mean to overhype Pop. Maybe a better way to put it is that I see no reason why he would give us less production than his first 2 years. He's a proven commodity and he's young enough to still think he can improve. Josh's system seems like a good fit and he has some experience in it through BoB. Year 2 with Maye should help too.

I like all of the tools that Williams brings and it sounds like he had a good spring but I'm not moving a rookie up the charts so quickly. As much as I've made fun of the Hollins fans for now I'd probably put him and even Bourne ahead right now though Williams is way more of a lock to make the team he needs to earn his way up the depth chart still.

Honestly including Diggs (due to age, injury, & the boat) and considering there's 9 players total you could realistically put on the team I can't think of a more wide open competition being possible. Some are more likely to not be cut but play time could still vary vastly depending how quick some of the youth can ascend.

 

[Hyped]

Dunno how it will break out, but I am sure of one thing....Hollins will have the best pre-game outfits....

 

[TheRainMaker]

400 yards isn't a high bar but you narrow the window too much limiting it to starters. Branch wouldn't qualify since Troy and Patten were starters. And I went straight to Branch because I think Williams and Branch are decent comps.

Who else is missed? Tompkins maybe. Can't be many.

Branch was the 3rd targeted WR, so he got plenty of playing time and produced. That has been a major problem in NE since then.

The players that played the most their rookie seasons were Branch, Dobson, Thompkins, Mitchell and Douglas. Branch and Douglas are the only two that have matched or exceeded their rookie seasons in production the following season.

Edelman is an outlier because he was in transition of becoming a WR and was buried on the depth chart.

Douglas should be thanked for his being among the best of a really terrible WR corps. That fact doesn't qualify him to be a starter on a team competing for the playoffs and beyond.
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He still caught for at least 400 yards in both seasons while guys like Thornton, Polk and Baker find ways to stay off the field. I'd rather have something than nothing.

 

[javajunky]

We need recievers who can run block, set picks, find holes in a soft zone, and win in tight contested spaces. These players open up the field for your star players. I have a feeling we will see more Polk and Hollins and less Hooper this year.