Trading Back Up Into The First Isn't Something To Count On

[Water Boy]

We're going to stick and pick at 4 and draft Will Campbell and you'll all like it!!!

Now enough with this trade up blasphemy!!

 

[KCSVEN]

If you think those 4 will be gone by 12-15 then trade back to 10ish.
Simmons is actually my first choice.
And yes I do have the top 4 close enough that any one of them plus a 2nd round pick is better than the others.
And of course if the Patriots have him far above the others they should just take him.
The 70 cents on the dollar is something you just made up with nothing to support it, by the way.

I don't just make stuff up.
Several teams picking in the top 10 are open to trading down — the challenge has been finding teams willing to move up, per sources.
From what I’m hearing, there isn’t a strong push to trade up this year at the top, especially if it means giving up significant value that aligns with traditional trade charts.
As one source put it: “The current offers are 70 cents on the dollar.”

 

[Ring 6]

I don't just make stuff up.
Several teams picking in the top 10 are open to trading down — the challenge has been finding teams willing to move up, per sources.
From what I’m hearing, there isn’t a strong push to trade up this year at the top, especially if it means giving up significant value that aligns with traditional trade charts.
As one source put it: “The current offers are 70 cents on the dollar.”

I’m sorry I shouldn’t have said nothing to support it, I should have said nothing legitimate to support it.
And by legitimate I would mean actual real offers and trades, not speculation and rumor.
Wasn’t really knocking, was more just saying there is no data available to confirm that claim.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

If were picking from 4 blue chip LT prospects I'd be down with the "they're rated similarly so move back and get an extra pick" stuff, but none of these guys seem to be blue chips. If they're taking a LT, based on how most people evaluate these guys, they seem to be kind of taking a bit of a risk already. I wouldn't compound that by being ok with taking my 4th rated guy just because he's "close" to the top.

It's one thing to say that guys are rated on par with each other on day 2 and 3. We're talking about their pick of the top 4 LTs in the class. if our scouts can't come together and establish an actual order of preference for their FIRST RANKED player at the position, then fire them all to the ****ing moon. Maybe it's somewhat close, but IMO their collective professional judgments should have one guy at the top of the board and I wouldn't get cute going with a lower ranked guy to pick up another pick. Again, it seems by pretty much all accounts that they're already reaching for a LT here so don't add to that bust potential by taking someone you think even lower of.

 

[patfanken]

Of course I am reading your posts. I am referring to arm length and wing span as the same topic.
If you want to convince me, please explain how wingspan affects a tackled ability to block. It’s a non-issue to me. There are no cases where a LTs distance to reach out to his maximum affects his play, unless giving FB him a better opportunity to get called for holding.

Wingspan doesn’t affect “getting your hands on him” you are conflating that with arm length, which again is the difference of knuckle. No one blocks with their arms extended parallel to the ground.

Elite tackles are elite because of agility, technique, strength, determination and effort, intelligence and grit, not how far they can reach for the dinner rolls.
Again if you can show me a specific example of a liability in blocking created by how far you can reach horizontally you would have a chance to convince me.

What amazes me is that you think you can distinguish a #4 ceiling from a #15-20. Have you ever been wrong about a player? Do you slot them 1 to 250 in exact order of who turns out best every year?
If you select the player that has the 15th best career out the entire class at #4 you have probably done better than most #4 picks.

4 of the last 6 were Anthony Richardson, Andrew Thomas, Kyle Pitts and Clellin Ferrel.

Fair enough. At least now we are talking apple to apples.

Listening to one of the radio sports shows on the draft they came out with and interesting stat that I will paraphrase since I can't recall the specific numbers. (getting old)

A group of analysts tracked ALL the OT's who were drafted in the top 3 rounds who had arm lengths of 33" or lower and wing spans of 81" or lower since 2010. IIRC it was around 50 of them

Of that number around 35 became OG's about 10 became RT's and 8 became C's. What is scary is that not ONE ever became a successful, long-term starting LT. NOT ONE. (BTW anyone who was listening to 98.5 around 11:30 hopefully can give us the exact numbers, and back me up.

The point is that historically Campbell would have the be the outlier of all outliers to become what he was drafted to be, which is, imho, a top 10 starting LT.

I believe drafting him will improve our OL. It really was THAT bad last year. But what we don't know is how much of that suckatude was because of the offensive system and coaching and how much can be mitigated by the new staff even before any new additions. Will we see big leaps from guys like Robinson, Wallace and Sow simply because of a better system and more experienced staff plus a year's experience and good health.

I personally think that at BEST drafting Cambell would end up being drafting another Matt Light. That wouldn't be a horrible result, but not worth of #4. Or he could move inside and become the next Joe Thuney, ALSO not a horrible result, but not worth the #4

Now your list of bad #4 picks only show just how hard it is to project what a player will be AFTER entering the league. But given the odds, don't you think Membou, Warren, Graham, or Walker all would have higher ceilings?

 

[patfanken]

I don't just make stuff up.
Several teams picking in the top 10 are open to trading down — the challenge has been finding teams willing to move up, per sources.
From what I’m hearing, there isn’t a strong push to trade up this year at the top, especially if it means giving up significant value that aligns with traditional trade charts.
As one source put it: “The current offers are 70 cents on the dollar.”

Now THIS take makes eminent sense. No one is coming up to get #4. We will be making the pick when our turn comes

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I personally think that at BEST drafting Cambell would end up being drafting another Matt Light. That wouldn't be a horrible result, but not worth of #4. Or he could move inside and become the next Joe Thuney, ALSO not a horrible result, but not worth the #4

I think you need to assess more than just Campbell to assess this though. Yes, in a vacuum, a Matt Light LT or Thuney LG might not be worth #4 based on what you expect from that slot. But you have to evaluate against THIS DRAFT CLASS. You can't look at it as comparing the #4 pick to the value you historically associate with that draft slot. You have to evaluate from the standpoint of just making the best pick this year. If you're down on the rest of the class, then a Thuney or Light might actually be the best pick here.

 

[PatsFan2]

Now THIS take makes eminent sense. No one is coming up to get #4. We will be making the pick when our turn comes

They're saying that now wait until tonight.

 

[PatsFan2]

Now THIS take makes eminent sense. No one is coming up to get #4. We will be making the pick when our turn comes

You know A Jeanty is the next Blue Chip player after Hunter and Carter right?? IF we pass on him just to pick Will Campbell @ 4 and Jeanty lives up to his Draft billing: we will remember this Draft gaff for years to come. I am going to say this if Nobody comes asking for a Trade @ 4 we take the BPA RB Austin Jeanty: it's not like we couldn't use him.

 

[Ring 6]

Fair enough. At least now we are talking apple to apples.

Listening to one of the radio sports shows on the draft they came out with and interesting stat that I will paraphrase since I can't recall the specific numbers. (getting old)

A group of analysts tracked ALL the OT's who were drafted in the top 3 rounds who had arm lengths of 33" or lower and wing spans of 81" or lower since 2010. IIRC it was around 50 of them

Of that number around 35 became OG's about 10 became RT's and 8 became C's. What is scary is that not ONE ever became a successful, long-term starting LT. NOT ONE. (BTW anyone who was listening to 98.5 around 11:30 hopefully can give us the exact numbers, and back me up.

The point is that historically Campbell would have the be the outlier of all outliers to become what he was drafted to be, which is, imho, a top 10 starting LT.

I believe drafting him will improve our OL. It really was THAT bad last year. But what we don't know is how much of that suckatude was because of the offensive system and coaching and how much can be mitigated by the new staff even before any new additions. Will we see big leaps from guys like Robinson, Wallace and Sow simply because of a better system and more experienced staff plus a year's experience and good health.

I personally think that at BEST drafting Cambell would end up being drafting another Matt Light. That wouldn't be a horrible result, but not worth of #4. Or he could move inside and become the next Joe Thuney, ALSO not a horrible result, but not worth the #4

Now your list of bad #4 picks only show just how hard it is to project what a player will be AFTER entering the league. But given the odds, don't you think Membou, Warren, Graham, or Walker all would have higher ceilings?

Do you have a list of those players? Who are the “analysts”.
How many were drafted as LT?
How many were 6’6 325?
How many have one of the best OL RAS in the history of the metric?
How many dominated at LT in the SEC?
Why would you move a LT to RT if the only issue was arm length? They need to do the same things.
You are acting like arm length and wingspan are all a player is.
You have yet to give me an example why it matters on the field.

We already dismissed a knuckles worry or arm length as irrelevant. So now you are talking about wingspan.

Typically height and wingspan are about equal. Campbell is 6’6” which is 78” and his wingspan is 77 3/8”. He is 5/8” less than what is normal from fingertip to finger tip outstretched. Against less than 1/2 per finger.
You talk like a typical 6’6” player has a foot more of wingspan, when in fact Campbell is 0.8% less than typical.

I’ll ask again for you to explain how than 2.5/8” per finger defines him and means he can’t play or what specific function on the football field would it detract from.

 

[dliverey44]

Fair enough. At least now we are talking apple to apples.

Listening to one of the radio sports shows on the draft they came out with and interesting stat that I will paraphrase since I can't recall the specific numbers. (getting old)

A group of analysts tracked ALL the OT's who were drafted in the top 3 rounds who had arm lengths of 33" or lower and wing spans of 81" or lower since 2010. IIRC it was around 50 of them

Of that number around 35 became OG's about 10 became RT's and 8 became C's. What is scary is that not ONE ever became a successful, long-term starting LT. NOT ONE. (BTW anyone who was listening to 98.5 around 11:30 hopefully can give us the exact numbers, and back me up.

The point is that historically Campbell would have the be the outlier of all outliers to become what he was drafted to be, which is, imho, a top 10 starting LT.

I believe drafting him will improve our OL. It really was THAT bad last year. But what we don't know is how much of that suckatude was because of the offensive system and coaching and how much can be mitigated by the new staff even before any new additions. Will we see big leaps from guys like Robinson, Wallace and Sow simply because of a better system and more experienced staff plus a year's experience and good health.

I personally think that at BEST drafting Cambell would end up being drafting another Matt Light. That wouldn't be a horrible result, but not worth of #4. Or he could move inside and become the next Joe Thuney, ALSO not a horrible result, but not worth the #4

Now your list of bad #4 picks only show just how hard it is to project what a player will be AFTER entering the league. But given the odds, don't you think Membou, Warren, Graham, or Walker all would have higher ceilings?

I have seen numerous people say that a Matt Light or Joe Thuney are not worth the 4th pick but Light was a 3 X probowler and 1 time all pro and Thuney also a 3X probowler and 2 time all pro. A multiple time pro bowl player is worth the 4th pick, but as you alluded to that is best case and is a very risky projection.

I am not thrilled with the LT options but do not think that hoping to be able to trade back up into the 1st is reasonable because as we learned last year it is much easier said then done. One thing that I noticed when watching the OT prospects this year is that Campbell was given less help than most of the other OTs. I haven't looked at any stats but it looked like he had more true pass sets than the others.

I think he will be an average LT in the NFL but most likely not a top 10 LT ever. Campbell has other things I see on tape that concern me, but with Marone and McD I feel like he will be given enough help in longer drop backs to make him a nonliability. I agree with @patfanken that it is not worth the 4th pick, but if we knew he would turn into Matt Light or Thuney then I would absolutely do that at 4. I am just not sure he can be that

 

[patfanken]

Do you have a list of those players? Who are the “analysts”.
How many were drafted as LT?
How many were 6’6 325?
How many have one of the best OL RAS in the history of the metric?
How many dominated at LT in the SEC?
Why would you move a LT to RT if the only issue was arm length? They need to do the same things.
You are acting like arm length and wingspan are all a player is.
You have yet to give me an example why it matters on the field.

We already dismissed a knuckles worry or arm length as irrelevant. So now you are talking about wingspan.

Typically height and wingspan are about equal. Campbell is 6’6” which is 78” and his wingspan is 77 3/8”. He is 5/8” less than what is normal from fingertip to finger tip outstretched. Against less than 1/2 per finger.
You talk like a typical 6’6” player has a foot more of wingspan, when in fact Campbell is 0.8% less than typical.

I’ll ask again for you to explain how than 2.5/8” per finger defines him and means he can’t play or what specific function on the football field would it detract from.

I'm just passing along info I heard on the radio with the announcers do the draft talk show, quoting some analytics guys who did the research on past drafts going back to 2010.

The results were that were that ZERO LT's who fit Will Campbell's arm AND wingspan stats who were drafted to be OT's ended up being a long-term solution at LT for an NFL team. Some made it a RT, LG, and C, but NONE made it as LT's over the last 15 years. No judgment. It is what it is. I'm sure someone with better web research skills than I have, (and the willingness to do it than I have ) can find what the producers of that show found.

That's my problem with Campbell. You want me to use that very high pick on a guy and hope HE can do what no one else has done in at least 15 years.

That is why I'd rather go with Membou and assume a superior athlete who is just turned 21 can make the transition from the right side to the left. Now LOTS of guys have done that. IIRC Nate Solder played mostly on the right side his first year. Wirfh, the excellent LT of the Bucs had to make the transition and has done it very well. And I'm sure I could find many more if I wasn't so lazy.

Bottom Line - odds are that Campbell WILL be the pick tonight and we will find out over the next couple of years whether we have a franchise LT or just another decent but not great LT, or a great LG. If we were drafting in the late teens or early 20's I wouldn't give a **** if he turned into a great OG. But even Dante has said, you DO NOT draft an OG at #4

BTW- Picking Campbell is NOT going to be one of those picks that set a team back by being wrong. He's a good offensive lineman, but did we waste the rare opportunity (well not so rare lately ) of picking a long-term star and wind up with something we usually get on the 2nd day.

Like I said, Will Campbell might just the anomaly

 

[Ring 6]

I'm just passing along info I heard on the radio with the announcers do the draft talk show, quoting some analytics guys who did the research on past drafts going back to 2010.

The results were that were that ZERO LT's who fit Will Campbell's arm AND wingspan stats who were drafted to be OT's ended up being a long-term solution at LT for an NFL team. Some made it a RT, LG, and C, but NONE made it as LT's over the last 15 years. No judgment. It is what it is. I'm sure someone with better web research skills than I have, (and the willingness to do it than I have ) can find what the producers of that show found.

That's my problem with Campbell. You want me to use that very high pick on a guy and hope HE can do what no one else has done in at least 15 years.

That is why I'd rather go with Membou and assume a superior athlete who is just turned 21 can make the transition from the right side to the left. Now LOTS of guys have done that. IIRC Nate Solder played mostly on the right side his first year. Wirfh, the excellent LT of the Bucs had to make the transition and has done it very well. And I'm sure I could find many more if I wasn't so lazy.

Bottom Line - odds are that Campbell WILL be the pick tonight and we will find out over the next couple of years whether we have a franchise LT or just another decent but not great LT, or a great LG. If we were drafting in the late teens or early 20's I wouldn't give a **** if he turned into a great OG. But even Dante has said, you DO NOT draft an OG at #4

BTW- Picking Campbell is NOT going to be one of those picks that set a team back by being wrong. He's a good offensive lineman, but did we waste the rare opportunity (well not so rare lately ) of picking a long-term star and wind up with something we usually get on the 2nd day.

Like I said, Will Campbell might just the anomaly

I think you add taking an irrelevant metric and making it seem relevant.
I don’t put a lot of stock in “I heard on the radio, something, something” but I also don’t put stock in thinking a player is defined by arm length.
As I said show me any of those who had Campbells level of talent and failed because of arm length and I might be more convinced.

Ultimately by zeroing only on arm length (and wingspan) you are taking a guy who has an oddly shorter arm for his size, and comparing him to only players with shorter arms. Should we analyze shoe size and pretend that matters?
No one, you included has demonstrated any example of why an inch or less of arm length discrepancy would impact a LT.
Also you quoted Dante who said arm length and wingspan are meaningless. Why does his opinion only matter when you like it?

If the Patriots think Membou is a better player than Campbell they should draft him, but there is a large consensus that thinks otherwise.

In the end I hope we trade down and take Simmons so we can trade back up and get a WR. But if Cambbell is the pick I have zero concern about arm length.

 

[Ring 6]

You know A Jeanty is the next Blue Chip player after Hunter and Carter right?? IF we pass on him just to pick Will Campbell @ 4 and Jeanty lives up to his Draft billing: we will remember this Draft gaff for years to come. I am going to say this if Nobody comes asking for a Trade @ 4 we take the BPA RB Austin Jeanty: it's not like we couldn't use him.

If no one is willing to trade up for him then that would indicate that other teams don’t agree with you.

 

[mgteich]

It was really tough to get someone to trade down from the 20's onward.

PHI was at 32 and wanted a player that was there at 23. They tried to move up to teams from 23 onward with ZERO success until finally KC agreed to trade down one spot for a 5th. I suspect that PHI had to agree not to pick Simmons so that there was no risk to KC.
=====
So, the good news would have been that Simmons and Conerly were available in the 20's. The bad news is that no one wanted to trade down. Of course, we would have been in an even tougher spot than PHI trying to move up from 38.

 

[silentone]

@KCSVEN

I'm still trying to get my head around your research proving trading up into the first round is the better strategy than trading down.

What were the specific trades that you looked at, which trades did you throw out, and why were they thrown out.
I'd like to look into this a little further. Thanks