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2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker (Tracking the Patriots Draft Position)

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Don’t know how much the Pats SOS will change finishing with Bills x2 and Chargers vs. the other teams with 3-12 (Tenn, Raiders, Jags, Clev) records…..And I don’t have the time or inclination to figure that out but maybe someone here does. With SOS being the first draft order tiebreaker, that may play a role in how the Pats finish…ie. They may be #2 now but even if they lose out, they could still drop down a spot or two.

• ?Tenn and Jags (both 3-12) play next week so obviously one will end up at 4-12
• ?Raiders (3-12) have a winnable game vs. Saints next week.
• ?Clev (3-12) is unlikely to win again (Dolphins, Ravens)
• ?G-men won’t either unless Philly sits all of their starters week 17 (if locked into the 2nd seed).

Pats need KC to lose vs. Pitt, so that the Bills still have a shot to grab the first seed with a week 17 win. KC will likely be without Chris Jones, so that helps.
 
I'm not a fan of tanking when you have a QB now but a win in these last 2 games probably costs us a first round pick.

Giants, Titans, Browns, Raiders are all in the QB market and we're going to finish with a higher pick than 3 of them if we just lose out, that has potential to slide back 2/3 spots and pick up another first.
Do you know this for sure? Not saying that you’re wrong but the Pats SOS improved by facing the Bills this week and will continue to rise because of the remainder of the schedule. Even if they lose out, is it possible for one of the other 3-14 teams to jump them because they end up with a slightly lower SOS?

I’m not sure any team is going to be willing to give up a future 1st in order to move up 2-4 spots, despite how desperate several teams are for a legitimate starting quarterback. Are Sanders and Ward worth that? Maybe, maybe not. All it takes is two teams to engage in a bit more and you never know. . Even if they can only get (for example) a 2 and a 4 this year and a 2 next year, then getting the 2nd pick would still be a boon. Having an extra 2, 3 and 4 this year would give them a lot of ammunition to move back up into the 20-25 range.
 
Do you know this for sure? Not saying that you’re wrong but the Pats SOS improved by facing the Bills this week and will continue to rise because of the remainder of the schedule. Even if they lose out, is it possible for one of the other 3-14 teams to jump them because they end up with a slightly lower SOS?

I’m not sure any team is going to be willing to give up a future 1st in order to move up 2-4 spots, despite how desperate several teams are for a legitimate starting quarterback. Are Sanders and Ward worth that? Maybe, maybe not. All it takes is two teams to engage in a bit more and you never know. . Even if they can only get (for example) a 2 and a 4 this year and a 2 next year, then getting the 2nd pick would still be a boon. Having an extra 2, 3 and 4 this year would give them a lot of ammunition to move back up into the 20-25 range.
Jacksonville maybe could move above us with .480 SOS and 2 games against sub .500 teams but they aren't taking a QB, all the other SOS in the top 6 are well over .500 while ours is at .463.
 
Interesting. Getting to 2 opens up all sorts of opportunities.
 
Damn is it amazing just how F’ing bad it is at the bottom of the NFL cellar, even when being comfortable with it and seeing a silver lining with the draft positioning. Just some absolute asscheeks going on by teams likes of the Giants, Raiders, etc to be so ****ty it hurts as a Pats fan. Even in troubled times with this current team, it takes a LOT of work to suck worse than the rest.
 
Several years ago we had a forum member who would post a weekly thread titled "Who To Root For", based on which games helped/hurt the Patriots (plus a few rivals a Pats fan could never root for). In memory of those great threads, I'll attempt to resurrect that thought process.


Remaining Week 16 Games

Rams at Jets - The Patriots have played the Jets twice and the Rams once, so (thankfully) we want the Jets to lose, just as we always do, as it lowers the Pats strength of schedule. While NYJ is close in the current draft order, it doesn't matter as long as the Pats don't pull off an upset in the last three games. Just play competitively and keep the score close.
Root for the Rams.

Browns at Bengals - The Pats played the Bengals but not the Browns, so we want Cincy to lose. In addition a Cleveland victory gives them four wins, so a tiebreaker with the Browns would no longer be in play.
Root for the Browns.

Titans at Colts - A Tennessee victory removes them from the current five-team logjam at 3 wins. In addition, they play Jacksonville twice, so a win hurts the Jaguars' SOS. As a bonus, there is the schadenfreude factor of the Colts being eliminated, resulting in a Jim Irsay alcohol and drug binge, being covered by the idiot Indy Star sports writers Gregg Doyel and some other hack I thankfully cannot remember.
Root for the Titans.

Eagles at Commanders - Neither team plays the Pats or the Raiders this year, they both play the Giants twice and Carolina once, so that doesn't matter either. The only team affected is Jacksonville, who played Philly earlier, so an Eagles win makes the Jags SOS increase. On a side note that also makes the NFC race for the #1 seed more interesting, as well as the race for the #7 seed.
Root for the Eagles.

Lions at Bears - Patriots played Chicago and thankfully never faced Detroit. A Chicago loss lowers the Pats strength of schedule.
Root for the Lions.

Giants at Falcons - Obviously we want the Giants to win their third game (slight throwup in my mouth), so the Patriots can pass them in the draft order. And if that doesn't happen, at least we can watch the train wreck unfold in Atlanta, who decided that it would make sense to spend $90,000,000 on a QB, and rather than use the draft on a player that could help him (WR, OL), they instead used their first round pick on his replacement.
Root for the Giants.

Cardinals at Panthers - A Carolina victory drops them from the ranks of the 3-win teams, avoiding a potential tiebreaker scenario with the Panthers. An Arizona loss also benefits us, by dropping the Pats' SOS.
Root for the Panthers.


Late Games

Vikings at Seahawks - Both teams played the Giants, and neither team played the Raiders, Patriots or Panthers. Minnesota did play Jacksonville though, so if they win that increases the Jaguars' strength of schedule.
Root for the Vikings.

49ers at Dolphins - The Patriots played Miami twice, so this game counts double for New England's SOS. The Raiders and Jaguars played the Dolphins as well, but only once. All three teams benefit from a Miami loss lowering their respective strength of schedules, but moreso for the Patriots.
Root for the 49ers.

Patriots at Bills - Of course we don't want to openly root against our favorite team. But the reality is, we are on to 2025. Hope for a close, competitive game, no injuries, with Buffalo winning on a fluke play or egregiously bad officiating.
Root for whatever feels right to you.

Jaguars at Raiders - The most important game of the season in regards to the 2025 NFL draft order. The Pats did lose to Jacksonville earlier this year, so a Jags win helps their SOS - while simultaneously giving the Jags (who are dangerously close to the Pats in SOS) a fourth win.
On the other hand a Las Vegas victory would give them a third victory, same as New England. The Raiders currently have a .541 SOS, compared to NE's .462; the Raiders would drop from the #1 spot all the way to #7. Wins by Buffalo, NYG and Vegas would mean that the Patriots would own the #1 draft position heading into Week 17.
Root for the Raiders.


Night Games

Bucs at Cowboys - The Giants played both teams; the Pats and Jags played neither. The Raiders played Tampa once, and Carolina plays Tampa twice. As much as it pains me to say this a Tampa Bay loss is helpful to the Patriots. Hopefully the Giants and Raiders win, making this game a moot point, because I just can't bring myself to want to see Jerry Jones' team succeed.
Root for the Cowboys.

Saints at Packers - Jacksonville played Green Bay in week 8, and Carolina plays the Saints twice. More importantly, Las Vegas is at New Orleans next week. Jacksonville (.479 SOS) appears to be a bigger tiebreaker threat to New England (.462 SOS) than Carolina (.498) or Las Vegas (.541). This is a tossup, but I'll go with the result that hurts Jacksonville the most.
Root for the Saints.
I Absolutely LOVE this!! Thank you so much for putting in the work. Bravo!
 
Do you know this for sure? Not saying that you’re wrong but the Pats SOS improved by facing the Bills this week and will continue to rise because of the remainder of the schedule. Even if they lose out, is it possible for one of the other 3-14 teams to jump them because they end up with a slightly lower SOS?

I’m not sure any team is going to be willing to give up a future 1st in order to move up 2-4 spots, despite how desperate several teams are for a legitimate starting quarterback. Are Sanders and Ward worth that? Maybe, maybe not. All it takes is two teams to engage in a bit more and you never know. . Even if they can only get (for example) a 2 and a 4 this year and a 2 next year, then getting the 2nd pick would still be a boon. Having an extra 2, 3 and 4 this year would give them a lot of ammunition to move back up into the 20-25 range.

Apparently Tankathon already figured remaining schedules in and the Patriots will still win the SOS tiebreakers.
 
Don’t know how much the Pats SOS will change finishing with Bills x2 and Chargers vs. the other teams with 3-12 (Tenn, Raiders, Jags, Clev) records…..And I don’t have the time or inclination to figure that out but maybe someone here does. With SOS being the first draft order tiebreaker, that may play a role in how the Pats finish…ie. They may be #2 now but even if they lose out, they could still drop down a spot or two.

• ?Tenn and Jags (both 3-12) play next week so obviously one will end up at 4-12
• ?Raiders (3-12) have a winnable game vs. Saints next week.
• ?Clev (3-12) is unlikely to win again (Dolphins, Ravens)
• ?G-men won’t either unless Philly sits all of their starters week 17 (if locked into the 2nd seed).

Pats need KC to lose vs. Pitt, so that the Bills still have a shot to grab the first seed with a week 17 win. KC will likely be without Chris Jones, so that helps.
The strength of schedule calculation being used now includes all 17 opponents, so who you play the next 2 weeks is irrelevant.
After 15 games for all teams the gap between .463 for patriot opponents and .480 for Jacksonville (the nearest) is virtually insurmountable. I did the math a few days ago in this thread.
When you also factor in many opponents are common, and some face each other id put it at about 1 in a million that Jacksonville’s (or anyone else in the list) SOS could end up lower then ours.
 
Do you know this for sure? Not saying that you’re wrong but the Pats SOS improved by facing the Bills this week and will continue to rise because of the remainder of the schedule. Even if they lose out, is it possible for one of the other 3-14 teams to jump them because they end up with a slightly lower SOS?

I’m not sure any team is going to be willing to give up a future 1st in order to move up 2-4 spots, despite how desperate several teams are for a legitimate starting quarterback. Are Sanders and Ward worth that? Maybe, maybe not. All it takes is two teams to engage in a bit more and you never know. . Even if they can only get (for example) a 2 and a 4 this year and a 2 next year, then getting the 2nd pick would still be a boon. Having an extra 2, 3 and 4 this year would give them a lot of ammunition to move back up into the 20-25 range.
The pat’s strength of schedule already included Buffalo twice and the chargers before today.
They don’t calculate only completed games they calculate the entire schedule, so after week 1, the strength of schedule included 1 game for all 17 opponents, and as of now it includes the 15 game record of all 17 teams on the schedule.
 
If the Raiders want to move from 6-2 then Wolf needs to get their 2nd and their 2026 1st in return for swapping places. That would give the Patriots multiple options, including taking the tackle at 6 ( Banks or Campbell) and then trade up with both 2nds for Luther Burden WR. Two major needs addressed, and 2 1st round picks in 26’
 
If the Raiders want to move from 6-2 then Wolf needs to get their 2nd and their 2026 1st in return for swapping places. That would give the Patriots multiple options, including taking the tackle at 6 ( Banks or Campbell) and then trade up with both 2nds for Luther Burden WR. Two major needs addressed, and 2 1st round picks in 26’

There’s already talk of the Raiders being interested in Sanders.


I could see the Raiders making that trade if Sanders falls to us at #2 which would be ideal.
 
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There’s already talk of the Raiders being interested in Sanders.


I could see the Raiders making that trade if Sanders falls to us at #2 which would be ideal.
Issue is everyone knows we aren't picking a QB. The way to do it is to see if there's a bidding war for someone. But if Sanders is basically pulling a "he'll play at the Raiders or nobody else" it takes leverage away from us.
 
Do you know this for sure? Not saying that you’re wrong but the Pats SOS improved by facing the Bills this week and will continue to rise because of the remainder of the schedule. Even if they lose out, is it possible for one of the other 3-14 teams to jump them because they end up with a slightly lower SOS?
It's possible, but not easy.

Consider Jacksonville, for example. Right now they are 5 games ahead on SOS. So they need to net six games (because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker).

Now look at their opponents (division opponents are listed twice b/c they count double for determining SOS):

Their opponentsNE opponents
BUF, MIA, NE, JESTBUF, BUF, MIA, MIA, JEST, JEST
HOU, HOU, IND, IND, TEN, TENHOU, IND, JAX, TEN
CHI, DET, GB, MINSEA, SF, ARI, LAR
CLE, PHI, LVCIN, CHI, LAC

The crossed out opponents count for both teams, so they don't matter. So JAX's opponents have 21 games left and NE's have 20. To overtake NE, their opponents would need to lose six more games than NE's opponents do. (Plus every team plays a divisional opponent in Week 18, reducing the opportunities even further.)

I’m not sure any team is going to be willing to give up a future 1st in order to move up 2-4 spots, despite how desperate several teams are for a legitimate starting quarterback. Are Sanders and Ward worth that? Maybe, maybe not. All it takes is two teams to engage in a bit more and you never know. . Even if they can only get (for example) a 2 and a 4 this year and a 2 next year, then getting the 2nd pick would still be a boon. Having an extra 2, 3 and 4 this year would give them a lot of ammunition to move back up into the 20-25 range.
My guess is that trading from 2 to 4 or 5 would probably require something like a 2 this year and a 2 next year.
 
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Issue is everyone knows we aren't picking a QB. The way to do it is to see if there's a bidding war for someone. But if Sanders is basically pulling a "he'll play at the Raiders or nobody else" it takes leverage away from us.
That's the beautiful thing; even if there's no true bidding war, there's still the game of chicken on draft night; TEN can't really call Vegas and expect Vegas to tell them if they tried to trade up. The best case scenario is if teams view Ward and Sanders as nearly equal, to maximize potential interest in trading up.
 
reading Raiders fans reaction to winning today is hilarious. they’re so pissed off. it would be glorious for the Pats to stay at #2 and then get a team picking #3-6 to be desperate enough to send them something like an extra 1st and 2nd to move to #2
 
Issue is everyone knows we aren't picking a QB. The way to do it is to see if there's a bidding war for someone. But if Sanders is basically pulling a "he'll play at the Raiders or nobody else" it takes leverage away from us.
It still doesn’t work like that though. Teams won’t pass on a player, they’ll trade his rights or rights to the pick. Vegas might pick 5th or 6th so the other teams supposed to just look the other way? No way.
 

Eagles loss to Washington helps Patriots in draft​


This is a bit convoluted but with the Eagles loss to Washington this past Sunday, Philly's chances of getting the top seed in the NFC dropped to 2%. So if week 18 rolls around and it is a meaningless game versus the Giants, do they play their starters or rest them? A victory over the Giants could ensure #1 pick in draft for NYG while a loss to the Giants could drop them to #6 or7 in the draft. That difference could mean the difference in which QB they get AND which QB the Eagles would have to face twice a year. Schefter discussed this earlier this week in terms of whether the Eagles would play Barkley in week 18 if he had a chance to break the single season rushing record and he thought they would rest him.

Barkley doesn't seem to be that interested in record. Earlier this year in the 4th quarter of a blowout with him 15 years of a career high cocach asked him if he wanted it, his response was let the young running backs "eat".

If they start Picket and play all backups in a meaningless game, they could shaft the Giants and help the Patriots.
 
Note: Buffalo might take week 18 off against NE as well
 
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