2025 NFL Draft Order Tracker (Tracking the Patriots Draft Position)

[Ring 6]

@Ring 6

Yes sir. Those are my responses to you being a **** to me.

That's how it works, duh.

No that was your most recent comment followed by your initial comment that crossed the line to which I responded in kind.
Your off tilt response was to me legitimately asking if you were serious when you suggested strength of schedule isn’t a legitimate tie breaker because you don’t know if trans would have beaten teams in games they didn’t post.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The knot at the top of the draft order / remaining games

1 Las Vegas (2 - 12) Jaguars, Saints, Chargers
2 NY Giants (2 - 12) Falcons, Colts, Eagles
3 New England (3 - 11) Bills, Chargers, Bills
4 Jacksonville (3 - 11) Raiders, Titans, Colts
5 Carolina (3 - 11) Cardinals, Buccaneers, Falcons
6 Tennessee (3 - 11) Colts, Jaguars, Texans
7 Cleveland (3 - 11) Bengals, Dolphins, Ravens
8 NY Jets (4 - 10) Rams, Bills, Dolphins
9 Chicago (4 - 10) Lions, Seahawks, Packers

Jacksonville looks like the have the easiest remaining schedule... based on who we are playing vs who they finish out with, they might be able to jump us in the draft order based on strength of schedule... I have not gone and calculated / projected anything regarding that number, so who honestly knows how it will play out...

It is the reason why I would like the see the jags beat the raiders this week... let them move to 4 wins, it basically locks raiders/giants into the 1/2 spot (though that might flip based on sos)...then we really only have to worry about the panthers over taking us... worst case, we are picking 4th...

though in the 4th spot, we will miss out on Travis Hunter if that happens
1/2 - both will be quarterbacks
Panthers: I don't know what they "need" but its hard to see them passing on BPA, which is Hunter, based on what I've read...

The Raiders have a much stronger SOS than the Pats. If the Raiders win (and we lose of course), we move into the #2 position. Why wouldn't we want that? Even if we fall behind Jax because of the SOS shifting, we are only back to #3. Why would we want the Raiders to lose and possibly fall to #4? I don't follow you at all.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don’t know how it works, but the Redskins beat us last year and still picked above us. Head to head wasn’t the top deciding factor.

The order is W-L record first, (lowest) strength of schedule second, and then the appropriate tiebreakers (division, conference, or inter-conference) if there's still a tie. Head-to-head, if relevant, is the first tiebreaker after SOS.

 

[festy1986]

No that was your most recent comment followed by your initial comment that crossed the line to which I responded in kind.
Your off tilt response was to me legitimately asking if you were serious when you suggested strength of schedule isn’t a legitimate tie breaker because you don’t know if trans would have beaten teams in games they didn’t post.

Feel free to bring up the initial comment that crossed the line.

You won't find it.

With all the debates you got going on here was it necessary to bring up one that's a week old that you've already been handedly shut down with? And to think I thought you actually capitulated.

 

[Pape]

The Raiders have a much stronger SOS than the Pats. If the Raiders win (and we lose of course), we move into the #2 position. Why wouldn't we want that? Even if we fall behind Jax because of the SOS shifting, we are only back to #3. Why would we want the Raiders to lose and possibly fall to #4? I don't follow you at all.

If the play is to trade down and amass picks, then you would be correct. I don't think we will trade back, though, I wouldn't mind it if we did. if travis henry is the play you want the raiders in front of you. not jacksonville. raiders will take a qb. same with the giants.

jacksonville wont be taking a qb. makes sense to want jacksonville cleared out. least to me. ymmv

 

[Pape]

Why does Jax beating us have anything to do with draft order?

it is one of the tie breakers, albeit, lower on the totem pole than i had originally thought

 

[Pape]

Head to head would only apply with identical strength of schedule which is extremely unlikely
1) worst record
2) ties broken by weakest strength of schedule
3) playoff tie breakers (I don’t know when this changed but not long ago 3 was a coin flip)

I think our weakest scheduled advantage may be insurmountable

is the sos fully calculated right now? or does it change when you add both buffalo games and the chargers game to the calculations? does our sos get harder? this i don't know, hence, i hedge on it

 

[Huckleberry1]

is the sos fully calculated right now? or does it change when you add both buffalo games and the chargers game to the calculations? does our sos get harder? this i don't know, hence, i hedge on it

It goes by games played, not future schedule. Patriot fans should get used to the idea of picking around #6, because the two Buffalo games will jack up SOS. That’s fine though, as they can get a tackle there. It’s doubtful Campbell or Banks will go top 5.

*Apparently Tankathon has already figured future games into their draft order. I don’t know if other sites have done that or not.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If the play is to trade down and amass picks, then you would be correct. I don't think we will trade back, though, I wouldn't mind it if we did. if travis henry is the play you want the raiders in front of you. not jacksonville. raiders will take a qb. same with the giants.

jacksonville wont be taking a qb. makes sense to want jacksonville cleared out. least to me. ymmv

I understand. You might be right.

Atl took Pennix and surprised people. Now Pennix is starting. I am not convinced Jax will skip the QB. Mac sucks so Jax has no backup. Lawrence is questionable. Jax has a great roster and needs great QB play (plus new coaching). Hunter might be too good for Jax to pass on, and the #2 QB might be seen as weak in this draft. Interesting too think about. If Lawrence continues to be average, like a modern day Bledsoe, Jax should replace him after 2025 or 2026. Drafting a QB in 2025 would be smart planning, but the QBs this year suck.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

it is one of the tie breakers, albeit, lower on the totem pole than i had originally thought

I think head-to-head is only used if there is 2 teams involved or identical SOSs happens. Both situations are extremely unlikely this year. SOS is a weird stat to determine the order, but it does all but eliminate the use of multiple tie breakers which is nice. SOS ties will be very rare.

 

[KCSVEN]

It goes by games played, not future schedule. Patriot fans should get used to the idea of picking around #6, because the two Buffalo games will jack up SOS. That’s fine though, as they can get a tackle there. It’s doubtful Campbell or Banks will go top 5.

That's wrong, it goes by all games, future and past

 

[Pape]

That's wrong, it goes by all games, future and past

so every team is counted... it changes after whatever week is played out...

 

[Ring 6]

is the sos fully calculated right now? or does it change when you add both buffalo games and the chargers game to the calculations? does our sos get harder? this i don't know, hence, i hedge on it

The calculations show the current records of all scheduled opponents.
So it only changes by the results of the games. In other words our number already includes Buffalo twice and LA in it.
So you don’t have to hedge.

 

[jmt57]

Regarding the previous back-and-forth on whether or not strength of schedule should be a valid criteria, let's look at a couple of analogies.


First, college football rankings.

Most would agree that the overall quality of talent in the SEC or Big Ten is superior to the quality of talent of a conference such as the Mid American Conference or Conference USA. We know that because we see what happens when teams from those conferences play each other. Alabama would demolish Jacksonville State, and Ohio State would defeat Ohio.

In other words, two teams with the same record need additional context. The MAC's Ohio Bobcats going 11-3 may be comparable to the Sun Belt's Marshall going 10-3, but those teams - best in their respective conferences - are not as good as the fourth best team in the Big Ten (10-win Ohio State) or fourth best in the SEC (9-3 Alabama).



Secondly, an NFL hypothetical.

Two teams have 3-3 records after six games. Are they just as good as each other?

Team A had a schedule that consisted of games against the Jaguars, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Patriots and Tennessee.
Team B had a schedule consisting of games against the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Packers and Steelers.

Team A is the Carolina Panthers.
Team B is the Minnesota Vikings.

Do the 3-3 records that both teams possess mean that a game between the Panthers and Vikings would be a tossup, because they are both equally talented? I would say no.



With a relatively short season compared to other team sports, a tiebreaker is needed. While not perfect, Strength of Schedule is as good if not better than any other metric to determine positioning.

 

[jmt57]

Based on the SOS tiebreaker, the Raiders have vaulted over the Giants into the #1 seed in the race to the bottom.

Current losing streaks:
10 - Raiders
9 -- Giants
8 -- Bears
4 -- Patriots, Panthers
3 -- Titans, Browns

Pick Team Record WIN PCT OPP PCT 1 LAS VEGAS 2 - 12 0.143 0.537 2 NY GIANTS 2 - 12 0.143 0.550 3 NEW ENGLAND 3 - 11 0.214 0.464 4 JACKSONVILLE 3 - 11 0.214 0.483 5 CAROLINA 3 - 11 0.214 0.496 6 TENNESSEE 3 - 11 0.214 0.510 7 CLEVELAND 3 - 11 0.214 0.525 8 NY JETS 4 - 10 0.286 0.506 9 CHICAGO 4 - 10 0.286 0.559

 

[Ring 6]

Regarding the previous back-and-forth on whether or not strength of schedule should be a valid criteria, let's look at a couple of analogies.


First, college football rankings.

Most would agree that the overall quality of talent in the SEC or Big Ten is superior to the quality of talent of a conference such as the Mid American Conference or Conference USA. We know that because we see what happens when teams from those conferences play each other. Alabama would demolish Jacksonville State, and Ohio State would defeat Ohio.

In other words, two teams with the same record need additional context. The MAC's Ohio Bobcats going 11-3 may be comparable to the Sun Belt's Marshall going 10-3, but those teams - best in their respective conferences - are not as good as the fourth best team in the Big Ten (10-win Ohio State) or fourth best in the SEC (9-3 Alabama).



Secondly, an NFL hypothetical.

Two teams have 3-3 records after six games. Are they just as good as each other?

Team A had a schedule that consisted of games against the Jaguars, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Patriots and Tennessee.
Team B had a schedule consisting of games against the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Packers and Steelers.

Team A is the Carolina Panthers.
Team B is the Minnesota Vikings.

Do the 3-3 records that both teams possess mean that a game between the Panthers and Vikings would be a tossup, because they are both equally talented? I would say no.



With a relatively short season compared to other team sports, a tiebreaker is needed. While not perfect, Strength of Schedule is as good if not better than any other metric to determine positioning.

Basically they are trying to find the worst team based upon record. A tied record built against an easier schedule is logically a worse record than the same one built against a harder schedule. It seems pretty simple to me.

Trying to use playoff tiebreakers across divisions and conferences really waters it down.

 

[Ring 6]

Based on the SOS tiebreaker, the Raiders have vaulted over the Giants into the #1 seed in the race to the bottom.

Current losing streaks:
10 - Raiders
9 -- Giants
8 -- Bears
4 -- Patriots, Panthers
3 -- Titans, Browns

Pick Team Record WIN PCT OPP PCT 1 LAS VEGAS 2 - 12 0.143 0.537 2 NY GIANTS 2 - 12 0.143 0.550 3 NEW ENGLAND 3 - 11 0.214 0.464 4 JACKSONVILLE 3 - 11 0.214 0.483 5 CAROLINA 3 - 11 0.214 0.496 6 TENNESSEE 3 - 11 0.214 0.510 7 CLEVELAND 3 - 11 0.214 0.525 8 NY JETS 4 - 10 0.286 0.506 9 CHICAGO 4 - 10 0.286 0.559

I’m gonna try the math


Our 17 opponents have played 14 games each except LA who played Thursday.
So 17x14+1=239 239x.464=110.896 111/239=0.464
So our opponents are 111-128

Jacksonvilles opponents have played 238 because they don’t oppose Denver or LA

So 238x.483=114.954 so their opponents are 115-123

Not as big of a gap as I assumed but if we assume our opponents stay at .464 for Jacksonville to be worst with 17x3=51 games left they would have to end up 289x.464=134.096 with 134 wins or less so their opponents would need to go 20-31 or 0.392

FYI the do the math function in posts is awesome

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think head-to-head is only used if there is 2 teams involved or identical SOSs happens. Both situations are extremely unlikely this year. SOS is a weird stat to determine the order, but it does all but eliminate the use of multiple tie breakers which is nice. SOS ties will be very rare.

Only in the latter case. SOS is interesting in that you can also make a case for saying that highest SOS should draft first (that team "earned" it most), but the NFL chose lowest (that team "needs" it most).

 

[TinhWoodhead]

“Its hard to beat a team twice” so i dont think we will lose to the bills twice

 

[KCSVEN]

Want Texans to beat Chiefs, it hurts Jags SOS but mainly make Bills last game vs Pats a game the Bills would then need to play to win.