Rookies Report For Training Camp

[Wozzy]

In conclusion, is an elite talent at wide receiver vital if you want to win? In terms of playoff contention, it does seem to be an indicator of a team's overall playoff chances. As for the Super Bowl, well, unless you have legendary talents at the quarterback position, or one of the greatest tight ends of all time, it seems that an elite receiver might be vital.

With nine of the top 10 in receiving yards making the playoffs in 2023, it seems to be a rather clear indicator that teams with elite receivers are more likely to make the playoffs

The overwhelming majority of teams in the playoffs, but especially who go far into the playoffs, have great or at least good units in every phase. QB and WR are not unique in this regard.

The large majority of leading rushers and all purpose yards gainers made the playoffs, a large majority of top defenses did as well… it’s a sure sign the team is good.

Some players or units are lesser than others, but the net sum of all of them.. “the team” is among the best in the league. The same way I’ve never seen a bad QB win a ring, I’ve never seen a bad offensive line or defense win a ring. We’ve all seen average/good QB’s win one, same with lines, same with WR’s.

There is no secret sauce, beyond being at least “good” everywhere… if you want to win it all anyway.

 

[KCSVEN]

The overwhelming majority of teams in the playoffs, but especially who go far into the playoffs, have great or at least good units in every phase. QB and WR are not unique in this regard.

The large majority of leading rushers and all purpose yards gainers made the playoffs, a large majority of top defenses did as well… it’s a sure sign the team is good.

Some players or units are lesser than others, but the net sum of all of them.. “the team” is among the best in the league. The same way I’ve never seen a bad QB win a ring, I’ve never seen a bad offensive line or defense win a ring. We’ve all seen average/good QB’s win one, same with lines, same with WR’s.

There is no secret sauce, beyond being at least “good” everywhere… if you want to win it all anyway.

There is a difference between winning a super bowl and effect on winning. The best QB wins the Super Bowl most years.
The last 21 Super Bowls, 17 were won by Hall of Fame or close to Hall of Fame level QB's. There is ZERO question the best QB is the best way to win a Super Bowl. Not even debatable.

I think the question is which position other than QB is MOST important to winning. Nobody is saying you can be absolute garbage on the O Line and normally do well. But the NFL there is not as much different in the O Lines as there is in the receiving cores.

If you take the top 5 O lines and the bottom 5 Oline's you see an average of a 3-game difference in wins.

The other 22 lines in the middle vs the top 5 is a 1 game difference. So BAD offensive lines vs great offensive lines is an average of 3 wins. BUT the average offensive line, which is most teams only makes a 1 game difference.

Historically in the modern NFL a top 5 offense almost always makes the playoffs, a top 5 defense is a lower %. A Top 10 defense is equal to a top 5 offense. So we KNOW offense is more important than defense. Again, you can't suck on defense normally, though an average defense with a top 5 offense will likely make the playoffs but not vice versa.

Also, historically the top 5 and 10 passing offenses percentage wise make the playoffs more than the top rushing offenses.

So statistically:
While nobody would argue a well-rounded team good at everything is great there are things that equate more to success than others if you had to trade off:

-Offense is more important than defense-Not a question statistically to success rate
-Offensive line from team to team is about a 1 game difference unless you are bottom 5 in the league.
-Top passing offenses make the playoffs more than top rushing offenses
-Great QB's is the ultimate difference maker
-The 1 article only went back so far but showed 9 out of 10 of the top receivers made the playoffs, very high % better than the 1 game that offensive line gives you. See additional article below

-the evidence we have suggests receivers are more important to winning than offensive line, and mainly due to the fact there is not as wide a discrepancy in offensive lines as there is in receiving corps.

-Nobody can say QB is not the most important, I'd rather have a hall of fame QB, a top 5 offense and a 15th ranked defense than a middling QB with a 15th ranked offense and the #1 defense. You can win the Super Bowl with 1 but not the other though both likely make the playoffs.

-You can have Justin Herbert and have a terrible defense and coach and you have a losing record, obviously you can't be terrible at 1 important thing but that's a different discussion than whether WR is more important than offensive line, the evidence seems to show it is.

-Another article on importance of elite receivers below


By the Numbers

• Out of the 28 receivers with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2023, 15 made the playoffs.
• Teams with elite receivers had higher chances of playoff success, with the 1,200-yard mark being significant.
• Among the last five Super Bowl winners, only the Chiefs lacked a 1,000-yard wide receiver, relying on star QBs or TEs for success.

Why Elite Wide Receivers Are Key to NFL Success: 2024 Analysis & Stats

Elite wide receivers are increasingly crucial in today's NFL, sparking the question of whether having one is necessary for championship contention.

bvmsports.com

 

[Wozzy]

There is a difference between winning a super bowl and effect on winning. The best QB wins the Super Bowl most years.
The last 21 Super Bowls, 17 were won by Hall of Fame or close to Hall of Fame level QB's. There is ZERO question the best QB is the best way to win a Super Bowl. Not even debatable.

I think the question is which position other than QB is MOST important to winning. Nobody is saying you can be absolute garbage on the O Line and normally do well. But the NFL there is not as much different in the O Lines as there is in the receiving cores.

If you take the top 5 O lines and the bottom 5 Oline's you see an average of a 3-game difference in wins.

The other 22 lines in the middle vs the top 5 is a 1 game difference. So BAD offensive lines vs great offensive lines is an average of 3 wins. BUT the average offensive line, which is most teams only makes a 1 game difference.

Historically in the modern NFL a top 5 offense almost always makes the playoffs, a top 5 defense is a lower %. A Top 10 defense is equal to a top 5 offense. So we KNOW offense is more important than defense. Again, you can't suck on defense normally, though an average defense with a top 5 offense will likely make the playoffs but not vice versa.

Also, historically the top 5 and 10 passing offenses percentage wise make the playoffs more than the top rushing offenses.

So statistically:
While nobody would argue a well-rounded team good at everything is great there are things that equate more to success than others if you had to trade off:

-Offense is more important than defense-Not a question statistically to success rate
-Offensive line from team to team is about a 1 game difference unless you are bottom 5 in the league.
-Top passing offenses make the playoffs more than top rushing offenses
-Great QB's is the ultimate difference maker
-The 1 article only went back so far but showed 9 out of 10 of the top receivers made the playoffs, very high % better than the 1 game that offensive line gives you. See additional article below

-the evidence we have suggests receivers are more important to winning than offensive line, and mainly due to the fact there is not as wide a discrepancy in offensive lines as there is in receiving corps.

-Nobody can say QB is not the most important, I'd rather have a hall of fame QB, a top 5 offense and a 15th ranked defense than a middling QB with a 15th ranked offense and the #1 defense. You can win the Super Bowl with 1 but not the other though both likely make the playoffs.

-You can have Justin Herbert and have a terrible defense and coach and you have a losing record, obviously you can't be terrible at 1 important thing but that's a different discussion than whether WR is more important than offensive line, the evidence seems to show it is.

-Another article on importance of elite receivers below

By the Numbers

• Out of the 28 receivers with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2023, 15 made the playoffs.
• Teams with elite receivers had higher chances of playoff success, with the 1,200-yard mark being significant.
• Among the last five Super Bowl winners, only the Chiefs lacked a 1,000-yard wide receiver, relying on star QBs or TEs for success.

Why Elite Wide Receivers Are Key to NFL Success: 2024 Analysis & Stats

Elite wide receivers are increasingly crucial in today's NFL, sparking the question of whether having one is necessary for championship contention.

bvmsports.com

I don't believe the next most important position after QB is a "one size fits all' proposition... nor does it matter when it comes to winning and losing. The second most important player on the Chiefs is Chris Jones, on some other contender it could be a defensive end or a linebacker like TJ Watt, on some other team it might be a tightened or slot receiver. The conversation itself is just mental masturbation to some degree.

Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones on a crappy team are still not winning a ring. Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with a crappy offensive line are not winning a ring... because we've already seen it fail. It failed because the O-Line or defense failed.

This is no different from the Bengals failure in 2021 and 2022, they had every element necessary to win back to back championships except one... offensive line. They went really far in the playoffs despite that, but what ended their season was Joe Mixon's inability to run the ball and Joe Burrow getting sacked 7 times in the Super Bowl and 5 times in the AFC Championship the next year. Did it matter at that point how great Burrow, Mixon or Jamarr Chase was?

Go on PFR, look at the career game logs of every and any great QB in history, they're on a spread sheet. Toggle the sacks in the header so the highest sack totals appear at the top... scan to the left and you'll see almost all of those games were losses.

Great teams, really dominant teams have great players... it's not surprising that QB's, WR's, RB's, TE's, DL, LB's, CB's and even field goal kickers on SB winners fill up the stat sheet. The Chiefs don't advance last year without some extraordinary exploits by their kicker Harrison Butker. The guy made some ultra hard and high pressure kicks, he was the best kicker in the playoffs. Great teams have great everything. No one position is special in that regard.

The Chiefs didn't score a single TD in regulation in the Super Bowl last year, they were carried by their defense, run game and their kicker... Mahomes got all the accolades in the end because he finally scored a TD in overtime against an injury decimated and exhausted 49er defense... he didn't do **** to that point.

It's a team sport, the only thing that matters in the postseason is who has the better team, who is healthy and who executes best. Nick Foles with no super weapons proved that in 2017 and we've seen it happen multiple times in history. Once is an outlier, multiple times is not.

 

[KCSVEN]

It's a team sport, the only thing that matters in the postseason is who has the better team, who is healthy and who executes best. Nick Foles with no super weapons proved that in 2017 and we've seen it happen multiple times in history. Once is an outlier, multiple times is not.

You keep saying if you have a “crappy” whatever,
Nobody is saying you can have a crappy area of the team and still win

But they are not all equal in importance.

 

[Wozzy]

You keep saying if you have a “crappy” whatever,
Nobody is saying you can have a crappy area of the team and still win

But they are not all equal in importance.

After QB I’d say line play is probably the most important position in football.

Football is won in the trenches, true thirty years ago… true today.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

After QB I’d say line play is probably the most important position in football.

Football is won in the trenches, true thirty years ago… true today.

I tried to think about my own ranking of positions and immediately realized that it was not really meaningful. The most impactful thing is the players playing those positions and how they play as a team.

As an exercise on the GM exam, given a generic team with generic players my tiers of importance would be as follows:
1 QB
2, Line
3. Secondary, offensive weapons
4. Safety, LB, special teams

 

[Wozzy]

I tried to think about my own ranking of positions and immediately realized that it was not really meaningful. The most impactful thing is the players playing those positions and how they play as a team.

As an exercise on the GM exam, given a generic team with generic players my tiers of importance would be as follows:
1 QB
2, Line
3. Secondary, offensive weapons
4. Safety, LB, special teams

Put me down for QB and offensive/defensive line.

You get those things right and you can figure out the rest of your team with the remnants. I’d invest my wad there.