Patriots MUST lose their last 3 games

[lancerman]

Fultz was picked #1. So you think we should pick at #3?

That was steal though. Everyone knew Fultz was considered the top guy and he was guaranteed to go first and Lonzo's dad pretty much willed him to the Lakers at the second pick.

Celtics decided their guy was Tatum and knew they could get away with trading down and getting him.

You also pretty exclusively go best player in the NBA. You don't really nitpick over positional need. The Patriots might be in a spot where they can't get their QB but could get the best WR or the best lineman.

 

[lancerman]

Agree for the most part. If pats are at 3 or 4 (likely now that we know Rogers is not playing), If possible would like to see them trade up to 1 or 2 and take Williams or Maye.

At 3 or 4 if both WRs are gone I would take one of the 2 franchise OTs.

People also need to realize there's a pretty good chance the person making the draft picks is not Bill Belichick and we might see a completely different mentality where being aggressive and making plays to get guys you are sold on is prioritized over stocking up on what are essentially mid round lottery picks.

 

[KCSVEN]

I think Trubisky is the better runner whereas Maye has a stronger arm/better accuracy. Getting drafted by the bears really screwed any chance Mitch had. I would hope if Maye is the guy that we don’t throw him to the fire.

The traits are there with Maye. Development will be key. I actually see some flashes of Big Ben in his game. But again development is key.

FWIW, Having moved to North Carolina a few years ago, there is a lot of fans of North Carolina football that I get to meet.
Every single one of them has told me that Maye is the best quarterback in North Carolina history and it’s not even close. Trubisky, Howell, Yates were not anywhere near where they rate Maye.

Of course could be hindsight talking since Trubisky has had poor success in the NFL but I think a lot has to do with the fact Trubisky couldn’t earn the starting job until he was there for three years, and only played one season, he could not beat out a guy who went undrafted. Maye was stud from day 1.

All I know is they absolutely Love Maye.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

That was steal though. Everyone knew Fultz was considered the top guy and he was guaranteed to go first and Lonzo's dad pretty much willed him to the Lakers at the second pick.

Celtics decided their guy was Tatum and knew they could get away with trading down and getting him.

You also pretty exclusively go best player in the NBA. You don't really nitpick over positional need. The Patriots might be in a spot where they can't get their QB but could get the best WR or the best lineman.

Mahomes was #10. Herbert was #6. Why do people think we need the #1 or #2 pick?

 

[XLIX]

FWIW, Having moved to North Carolina a few years ago, there is a lot of fans of North Carolina football that I get to meet.
Every single one of them has told me that Maye is the best quarterback in North Carolina history and it’s not even close. Trubisky, Howell, Yates were not anywhere near where they rate Maye.

Of course could be hindsight talking since Trubisky has had poor success in the NFL but I think a lot has to do with the fact Trubisky couldn’t earn the starting job until he was there for three years, and only played one season, he could not beat out a guy who went undrafted. Maye was stud from day 1.

All I know is they absolutely Love Maye.

I can't say I follow UNC football religiously, but Maye sure took a step backwards this year statistically. It's true Trubisky only started one season, but if we had to rank each respective season, it would be:

1) 2022 Maye
2) 2016 Trubisky
3) 2023 Maye

I think there is a lot of NFL-bias impacting Trubisky. When a guy sucks in the NFL, it is all too easy to forget how great he was in college (Leaf, Russell, Tebow come to mind)

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Williams is LISTED as 6'1", which means he might be 5'11", Maye feasted on bad competition, when he played Clemson (which had an off year for Clemson) he was 16-36 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT Yikes!

 

[BHPatriot]

I can't say I follow UNC football religiously, but Maye sure took a step backwards this year statistically. It's true Trubisky only started one season, but if we had to rank each respective season, it would be:

1) 2022 Maye
2) 2016 Trubisky
3) 2023 Maye

I think there is a lot of NFL-bias impacting Trubisky. When a guy sucks in the NFL, it is all too easy to forget how great he was in college (Leaf, Russell, Tebow come to mind)

For what it’s worth, Maye was more highly sought after as a recruit. Trubisky was a good recruit, but Maye had offers from everybody: Bama, Georgia, Miami, Clemson, Michigan, etc.

Drake Maye Recruit Interests

247sports.com

 

[lancerman]

Mahomes was #10. Herbert was #6. Why do people think we need the #1 or #2 pick?

Mahomes was the second QB taken and his team moved up to get him. It's highly doubtful the second overall is taken at 10 in this draft. Herbert was the third QB taken.

In this draft, either one of them goes top 4.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Mahomes was the second QB taken and his team moved up to get him. It's highly doubtful the second overall is taken at 10 in this draft. Herbert was the third QB taken.

In this draft, either one of them goes top 4.

It does not matter if Mahomes was the 2nd QB taken, he was still pick #10. Herbert was pick number #6. The draft is a crap shoot. Do we want Trubisky, Murray, Young, or Rosen who were all selected #1 or #2 overall? What about Wilson or Lance at #2 and #3? The list of QB top draft pick busts goes on and on. Parsing the words, "Mahomes was the 2nd QB taken", "Herbert was the 3rd QB taken", is weak. Wilson was the 2nd QB taken, Lance was the 3rd QB taken, Rosen was the 1st QB taken, do we want any of them?

Playing the "hindsight is 20/20" game and claiming it would be different in this draft is pure speculation. Total misinformation. Like Parcells said, "You are what your record says you are". The history of the draft is "what it says it is". Trying to rewrite the draft is subjective and meaningless. In the end, people get overly excited about the QBs in the draft every year, and most of the QBs are busts. This year there are a lot of QB choices - having the first choice rarely leads to the most success.

 

[50-yard-line]

Commanders play the jets Sunday, that will tell us a lot

If the Commanders beat the Jets, the Pats would pick top 3 unless they win two games.

 

[Tunescribe]

It does not matter if Mahomes was the 2nd QB taken, he was still pick #10. Herbert was pick number #6. The draft is a crap shoot. Do we want Trubisky, Murray, Young, or Rosen who were all selected #1 or #2 overall? What about Wilson or Lance at #2 and #3? The list of QB top draft pick busts goes on and on. Parsing the words, "Mahomes was the 2nd QB taken", "Herbert was the 3rd QB taken", is weak. Wilson was the 2nd QB taken, Lance was the 3rd QB taken, Rosen was the 1st QB taken, do we want any of them?

Playing the "hindsight is 20/20" game and claiming it would be different in this draft is pure speculation. Total misinformation. Like Parcells said, "You are what your record says you are". The history of the draft is "what it says it is". Trying to rewrite the draft is subjective and meaningless. In the end, people get overly excited about the QBs in the draft every year, and most of the QBs are busts. This year there are a lot of QB choices - having the first choice rarely leads to the most success.

My thoughts exactly. Adding to this fantasy-fueled folly are all the people actively rooting for losses to get there. It's nuts. This team is much more than a rookie savior QB away from challenging for the division. Fingers crossed they trade down toward multiple early picks and if one is a quarterback, fine.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

My thoughts exactly. Adding to this fantasy-fueled folly are all the people actively rooting for losses to get there. It's nuts. This team is much more than a rookie savior QB away from challenging for the division. Fingers crossed they trade down toward multiple early picks and if one is a quarterback, fine.

Now that is a reason to get the #1 pick. There seems to be an endless supply of idiots who will trade multiple picks for a QB excitement fix. The #1 pick has not consistently led to a successful QB pick, but it has led a consistent trade down for multiple 1st and 2nd round picks.

 

[Tunescribe]

Now that is a reason to get the #1 pick. There seems to be an endless supply of idiots who will trade multiple picks for a QB excitement fix. The #1 pick has not consistently led to a successful QB pick, but it has led a consistent trade down for multiple 1st and 2nd round picks.

What I find interesting to ponder is where, exactly, the team stands on all this. You have to assume the players are trying to win because their livelihoods hinge on individual performance captured to video. What concerns me are some questionable coaching decisions in recent games, chiefly ultra-conservative offensive play calling vs. Kansas City, the Chargers and Commanders. But then you have the Pittsburgh win sandwiched in-between, so go figure.

Did BB, for example, pull out all the stops to beat the Chiefs? It seemed questionable. To me, the second-half offensive tempo lacked urgency, which I found disturbing.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

FWIW, Having moved to North Carolina a few years ago, there is a lot of fans of North Carolina football that I get to meet.
Every single one of them has told me that Maye is the best quarterback in North Carolina history and it’s not even close. Trubisky, Howell, Yates were not anywhere near where they rate Maye.

Of course could be hindsight talking since Trubisky has had poor success in the NFL but I think a lot has to do with the fact Trubisky couldn’t earn the starting job until he was there for three years, and only played one season, he could not beat out a guy who went undrafted. Maye was stud from day 1.

All I know is they absolutely Love Maye.

I'd pick him if I was making the pick, and he was available but lucky for the Patriots I'm not picking. To me he looks like the Pro typical QB, tall, good arm, how it translates to the NFL, I have no idea.

 

[PatsFan2]

Daniels imo is a reach that high. He's like the guys in the 2021 draft. Fields/Mac and probably even Wilson were overhyped to hell and got drafted way ahead of where they should because of a combo of QB needy teams and the off season media hype. Which was probably a disservice to all of them because they ended up on bad teams that couldn't develop them remotely well.

Frankly I think Williams is far and away the best prospect in the draft and if we are absolutely INTENT on going QB, I'd rather spend some capital and trade up to get him even if costs anything than stay put and settle for drafting Daniels way too high. If Maye is there, you take him.

But assuming we are top 3 and it goes 1. Williams, 2. Maye...... the smart move to me is to just get MHJ and then pair him with a second round QB OR if you REALLY believe in Williams, make the ballsy play and make a trade up.

I disagree on Daniels he looks like a Player to me. I get your point about players being over hyped Mahomes went #10. That said I feel good about Daniels he like he can do it all.

 

[PatsFan2]

FWIW, Having moved to North Carolina a few years ago, there is a lot of fans of North Carolina football that I get to meet.
Every single one of them has told me that Maye is the best quarterback in North Carolina history and it’s not even close. Trubisky, Howell, Yates were not anywhere near where they rate Maye.

Of course could be hindsight talking since Trubisky has had poor success in the NFL but I think a lot has to do with the fact Trubisky couldn’t earn the starting job until he was there for three years, and only played one season, he could not beat out a guy who went undrafted. Maye was stud from day 1.

All I know is they absolutely Love Maye.

Dude excellent post you just sold me on Maye...so Trubisky was a one year wonder who went before Mahomes and Watson he was definitely over hyped. You made a Great point when you said Trubisky couldn't beat out a Guy that went UnDrafted that should have been a red flag.

 

[BTTA]

Here's some actual data on where successful QB's are picked: DraftHistory.com

This shows that yes, drafting one high is less than a 50/50 proposition, and finding one outside of the top 3 is an even more difficult proposition.

Seems to be a dart board like the rest of the draft. The amount of work that goes into predicting NFL success, only to be wrong most of the time for most positions, is sad.

 

[jdlboot14]

I expect the Broncos game to be ugly and low scoring.
But Broncos pull that one out just because Wilson can make desperation plays and Zappe can't.
Bills are finding a late surge and will certainly find retribution at home for their playoff push.
We'll definitely beat the Jets at home in the finale - just so BB's last game isn't a loss to the most-hated nemesis.
It's fine, 4-13 will still get us the #3 draft pick.

 

[KCSVEN]

Here's some actual data on where successful QB's are picked: DraftHistory.com.

This shows that yes, drafting one high is less than a 50/50 proposition, and finding one outside of the top 3 is an even more difficult proposition.

Seems to be a dart board like the rest of the draft. The amount of work that goes into predicting NFL success, only to be wrong most of the time for most positions, is sad.

That is true but without ranking the prospects historically it is misleading.
On average Most drafts have 2-3 blue chip prospects overall, and only like 20 actual first round prospects based on talent.
Some years more, some less.
As for QB's there is a large range of where the top few QB's would rank historically as teams desperately reach for a QB. If the first QB is the 10th ranked prospect in a class he's still going top 2 or 3 due to need.

Kiper listed his top 10 rated QB's based on his historical ratings going back a couple decades:
Top 10: Elway, Luck, P. Manning, Lawrence, Jim Kelly, Andre Ware, Bledsoe, Ryan Leaf, Aikman, Josh Allen, 80% success rate.
Next 5 were Testaverde, Esiason, Young, Kosar and Couch. 80% again were long term NFL starters.
Caleb Williams ranks right around Trevor Lawrence and the consensus is Drake Maye is just barely below that. We can't get a final ranking until after combines but Wiliams will be in the top 10 for sure.

So based on historical ratings the top QB's rated at the time of draft are highly successful-80% become long term starters and up 50% of the top 10 become hall of fame level. It is the ones in the next tier, the best of a so-so group that fail at a much higher clip as top picks.

 

[BTTA]

That is true but without ranking the prospects historically it is misleading.
On average Most drafts have 2-3 blue chip prospects overall, and only like 20 actual first round prospects based on talent.
Some years more, some less.
As for QB's there is a large range of where the top few QB's would rank historically as teams desperately reach for a QB. If the first QB is the 10th ranked prospect in a class he's still going top 2 or 3 due to need.

Kiper listed his top 10 rated QB's based on his historical ratings going back a couple decades:
Top 10: Elway, Luck, P. Manning, Lawrence, Jim Kelly, Andre Ware, Bledsoe, Ryan Leaf, Aikman, Josh Allen, 80% success rate.
Next 5 were Testaverde, Esiason, Young, Kosar and Couch. 80% again were long term NFL starters.
Caleb Williams ranks right around Trevor Lawrence and the consensus is Drake Maye is just barely below that. We can't get a final ranking until after combines but Wiliams will be in the top 10 for sure.

So based on historical ratings the top QB's rated at the time of draft are highly successful-80% become long term starters and up 50% of the top 10 become hall of fame level. It is the ones in the next tier, the best of a so-so group that fail at a much higher clip as top picks.

That's useful. "Long term NFL starter" isn't the standard here in Patsland, at least not yet. Do you have links for "Caleb Williams ranks right around Trevor Lawrence and the consensus is Drake Maye is just barely below that. We can't get a final ranking until after combines but Wiliams will be in the top 10 for sure." The opinions I've seen on all those guys are much more varied than what I saw on Lawrence.