The 1st pick in the draft is ONE pick better than the SB winner.

[1960Pats]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
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1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
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BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

We are kidding ourselves if we think that we make a meaningful step toward the SB by drafting a WR or OT at 4 or 5. There is only one FAST step toward being a good team: getting a top QB. To me, FAST to me means 2-3 years. .

I've been having that discussion here for a couple of years. Better draft picks get those teams one player at the top and then are behind the later draft picks each and every round and then get one player at the end. Throw in the fact that the draft is a crap shoot, especially for Bill, and it isn't all that great of an advantage.

 

[mgteich]

100% correct … AND the possibility of a bust that high is very hard to recover from. That’s why trading down and getting more picks is the way to build the roster. There is ample of proof of other teams for years drafting top 15, and yet it doesn’t relate to wins .. or dare I say Super Bowls …I’m going out on a limb and say the qbs drafted in the top 15 over the last say 20 years … 50% of them were complete busts. Not even a .500 winning record. Lots of draft capital wasted on one guy. Definitely a crap shoot

a reasonable position

The other position is that you need to try to hit on that 50-50 shot for a top QB.

I suspect that if we don't get one of the first two picks, we'd trade down unless we think that the LT is an all-pro rock for the next 6 years at least. There are several QB's of interest that could be drafted in the last third of the first round, giving us the long contract. However, I don't think that we will pass if we have a chance at the top 2, unless a 3rd moves way. way up.

 

[mgteich]

I've been having that discussion here for a couple of years. Better draft picks get those teams one player at the top and then are behind the later draft picks each and every round and then get one player at the end. Throw in the fact that the draft is a crap shoot, especially for Bill, and it isn't all that great of an advantage.

FIRST, Bill has done very well with picks in the first half of the first round.

ALSO, if we can't get one of the top 2 QB's, trading down might give us lots of possibilities of help in the first 50, perhaps 3-4 players.

 

[1960Pats]

Eagles drafted the defensive rookie of the year after making the super bowl. Bill is drafting Boney T and Harry. Time for a new GM.

It looks like KC got a great DB after being in the SB too. The truth is that the NYFL HOF is chock full of players who were picked after players who never even played. And the best example of them all is the GOAT QB who was picked 199th.

 

[Grogan14]

So misleading. Value of # 1 pick versus 32 is astronomical. You can only win with franchise elite playmakers. Odds of getting one are 20 fold higher for top 5 picks.

 

[vicspats]

If not for AdamV, a kicker, Brady has two fewer rings today... but it was all Brady.

It's a special kind of stupid.

And if that special kicker didn’t miss two field goals when pumped and jack was here … William and Tommy would never have been here , and the last 20 years never happened. Ahhh … alternate universes …

 

[vicspats]

a reasonable position

The other position is that you need to try to hit on that 50-50 shot for a top QB.

I suspect that if we don't get one of the first two picks, we'd trade down unless we think that the LT is an all-pro rock for the next 6 years at least. There are several QB's of interest that could be drafted in the last third of the first round, giving us the long contract. However, I don't think that we will pass if we have a chance at the top 2, unless a 3rd moves way. way up.

Agree … I’m asking Santa for Odunze and get back to the bottom of the first for Nix

 

[Rob0729]

Doesn’t matter whether they get the first pick or the 15th again… the only desperate need on this team is a QB.

The Patriots have no tackles next year. So tackle isn't a desperate need? Is an OT an unimportant position that you can just plug in anyone? And they also have no TEs on the roster for 2024.

 

[Patjew]

I was confused by the thread title so opened the thread and the first post confused me even more. I do not see the logic in it at all.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats desperately need to make a huge hit in the draft next year. They don't have talent in most areas on this team. Their receivers suck. Their o-line is mediocre and two of their best three linemen are free agents. They don't have a free safety. Their LBs stink. They don't have a TE on the roster in 2024. They don't outside pass rushers beyond Judon who is coming off injury, going to be 32, and in a contract year. There isn't really any areas other than CB where the Patriots could be considered all set at starter going into 2024.

 

[Rob0729]

I was confused by the thread title so opened the thread and the first post confused me even more. I do not see the logic in it at all.

Yeah, I didn't get it either. The OP says after the first pick, the team with the #1 has a worst draft position than the Super Bowl winner. But you cannot dismiss the first overall pick like that. The first overall pick, if he lives up to his draft position, should be a HOFer or damn close. That player should be a player that should be a huge difference maker on the team.

 

[sb1]

If not for AdamV, a kicker, Brady has two fewer rings today... but it was all Brady.

It's a special kind of stupid.

And if it wasn't for Brady he would have zero like HC Bill.

Also Brady was asked to put them in FG range cause that's all they needed. Love the assumption that Brady wouldn't have gotten a TD if he was asked to do that.

#ItWasAllBrady #HisTeamDoesntMatter #ItsOnlyTheQB #YourLogic

 

[mgteich]

I was confused by the thread title so opened the thread and the first post confused me even more. I do not see the logic in it at all.

A) List all the picks of the first team in the draft and the SB winner.
B) put aside the first pick in the draft.
C) put the other picks of the two teams next to each other.
You will find that, other than the first pick, the best team picks before the worst for all the remaining picks.
===============
And yes, I agree that the value of the top couple of picks is HUGE. But that terrible team needs to hit big on that first pick, a 50-50 proposition at QB. After that, the draft picks have less value than the SB winner.
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Because of this REALITY, unless a team thinks that their top 5 pick is a 6 year all-pro or a top QB, the option of trading down is very attractive as long as the team gets one blue chip prospect (usually at least a top 12-16 pick).

 

[Patjew]

A) List all the picks of the first team in the draft and the SB winner.
B) put aside the first pick in the draft.
C) put the other picks of the two teams next to each other.
You will find that, other than the first pick, the best team picks before the worst for all the remaining picks.
===============
And yes, I agree that the value of the top couple of picks is HUGE. But that terrible team needs to hit big on that first pick, a 50-50 proposition at QB. After that, the draft picks have less value than the SB winner.
===========
Because of this REALITY, unless a team thinks that their top 5 pick is a 6 year all-pro or a top QB, the option of trading down is very attractive as long as the team gets one blue chip prospect (usually at least a top 12-16 pick).

You cannot dismiss the value of that first pick. It's like you are imagining it doesn't occur. Anyway, agree to completely disagree.

 

[Mack Herron]

House wins on ties.

 

[XLIX]

100% correct … AND the possibility of a bust that high is very hard to recover from. That’s why trading down and getting more picks is the way to build the roster. There is ample of proof of other teams for years drafting top 15, and yet it doesn’t relate to wins .. or dare I say Super Bowls …I’m going out on a limb and say the qbs drafted in the top 15 over the last say 20 years … 50% of them were complete busts. Not even a .500 winning record. Lots of draft capital wasted on one guy. Definitely a crap shoot

There are people who get paid millions of dollars to make those selections. They don't get to fall back on "it's all just a crap shoot." Either do the job well or step aside for someone who will.

 

[1960Pats]

miss on your #1 pick and your resources are LESS than that of the SB winner

Even if you don't miss on the first pick you're still picking behind everyone else for every other pick. Unfortunately, we have a GM who misses more often than not.

I was confused by the thread title so opened the thread and the first post confused me even more. I do not see the logic in it at all.

I understand it completely and I've had this discussion here before. Let me try to help.
Let's use the teams with the top pick and the 15th, and this is how it would go:

Team A is in black and B is in red: 1-15-33-47-65-79-97-111-129-143-161-175-193-207.
Take out the top pick for team A and you're left with this: 15-33-47-65-79-97-111-129-143-161-175-193-207

Once team A get's the top pick team B will be picking players 18 spots ahead of team A in each round after that and will get one more pick at the end, which in total I believe lessens the advantage considerably. I hope that helps.

 

[XLIX]

miss on your #1 pick and your resources are LESS than that of the SB winner

All you did was rephrase your poor thesis:

"Take away 3,000 draft points from that team with the #1 overall, and you are in a worse situation than the Super Bowl winner!!"

 

[1960Pats]

Yeah, I didn't get it either. The OP says after the first pick, the team with the #1 has a worst draft position than the Super Bowl winner. But you cannot dismiss the first overall pick like that. The first overall pick, if he lives up to his draft position, should be a HOFer or damn close. That player should be a player that should be a huge difference maker on the team.

Nobody's dismissing the pick. It's just that it's not as great of an advantage as some people think, even if the team hits on it, which in the case of Bill is not as often as it should be.

 

[vicspats]

There are people who get paid millions of dollars to make those selections. They don't get to fall back on "it's all just a crap shoot." Either do the job well or step aside for someone who will.

Looks like 75% of all management should get fired ? Half teams don’t make playoffs ? Really hard to measure what’s inside a young man’s heart and mind. Like betting on the ponies… hard to make a living