PATRIOTS WILDCARD WEEKEND 12/24: BENGALS @ PATRIOTS

[PATSYLICIOUS]

New England Patriots Playoff Picture

The Patriots playoff picture table presents the probabilities that the Patriots will win each playoff spot.

www.playoffstatus.com

Interesting that this data says the Patriots don't control their destiny for the playoffs. Meaning there's a scenario where the Patriots go 4-0 to finish the season with an 11-6 record and miss the playoffs. I looked on the playoff machine and a 4-0 finish for both the Patriots and Chargers gives the edge to the Patriots so I can't see what other scenario keeps them out

The Chargers beating the dolphins last week was possibly monumentally bad for us, unless it leads to the fins collapsing and us getting in over them. Before that game there wouldn’t have been any tiebreak scenarios with lac getting in over us i can see. But That win gave lac the tiebreaker over miami and in most scenarios miami has the tiebreaker over us. So in a 3 way tie with those 2 , even if we finish 11-6 or 10-7, wed be out unless Cincinnati loses 3-4 games(not happening). The only way it wouldn’t is if we finish with a better division record than miami which most likely requires us beating mia AND Buffalo or Miami losing to Buffalo, us, and the jets. Otherwise if we tie miami in division record it goes to common opponents where Miami has us.

weirdly at the same time, we can just finish 9-8 and get in with 2 more losses by nyj and lac…. As long as miami isn’t also 9-8 (unless all 3 of their subsequent losses are the afce games which would get us in).

 

[oldrover]

(I cleaned it up a little, Ian )

 

[sb1]

The Chargers beating the dolphins last week was possibly monumentally bad for us, unless it leads to the fins collapsing and us getting in over them. Before that game there wouldn’t have been any tiebreak scenarios with lac getting in over us i can see. But That win gave lac the tiebreaker over miami and in most scenarios miami has the tiebreaker over us. So in a 3 way tie with those 2 , even if we finish 11-6 or 10-7, wed be out unless Cincinnati loses 3-4 games(not happening). The only way it wouldn’t is if we finish with a better division record than miami which most likely requires us beating mia AND Buffalo or Miami losing to Buffalo, us, and the jets. Otherwise if we tie miami in division record it goes to common opponents where Miami has us.

weirdly at the same time, we can just finish 9-8 and get in with 2 more losses by nyj and lac…. As long as miami isn’t also 9-8 (unless all 3 of their subsequent losses are the afce games which would get us in).

You're right that must be the scenario. Miami is +2 over us in non division common games with 1 game coming up against the Packers.

They're only +4 in point differential with the 3rd most points allowed in the conference. Primed for an end of season collapse?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

You're right that must be the scenario. Miami is +2 over us in non division common games with 1 game coming up against the Packers.

They're only +4 in point differential with the 3rd most points allowed in the conference. Primed for an end of season collapse?

One can hope. They have a pretty tough schedule left, almost as tough as ours. No cupcakes, even green bay is playing a bit tougher over the last month.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I can totally see McDermott doing what Coughlin did in 2007 and go all out to try to keep us out.

...and risking Allen just for spite?

When they were locked in the #2 seed in 2020 Allen sat the 2nd 1/2 of the last game of the year.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I mean, win all 3 and we're good and have momentum, we just hit our stride late. I don't trust us. I still wouldn't, even with that momentum.

Right now, beating Vegas-- wow, that phrase makes it seem much more dicey, no pun intended -- beating Vegas is IT. As long as we're winning, we're controlling our destiny. Let's see how this team responds to this knowledge. Something tells me Buffalo still takes us. Hopefully I am, as usual, wrong!

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Not to get technical but isn't next week's game on Saturday 12/24 and not the 25th??????

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Not to get technical but isn't next week's game on Saturday 12/24 and not the 25th??????

We play on Saturday??

Hey you're an a-hole by the way

 

[TomPatriot]

Ok, it's not technically the playoffs. But for this team, this is it. We have one more "regular season" game against the Raiders, and after that we are facing 3 straight playoff teams with our season virtually on the line for each of them (and DEFINITELY on the line if the Patriots drop the game against Vegas). That's the attitude this team needs to have for the rest of the year. There's no more time to figure it out, no more time to piss around and feel out the opposing team. There need to be risky 4th down attempts, some trick plays, whatever it takes to win the last 3 games of the season.

Do you all think the team has the same mindset right now? Is it going to be too mentally exhausting to try and keep a playoff tempo for what amounts to 1.5 months to get to the Super Bowl? What are your expectations for the end of the regular season?

The way I see it, if they find a way to win two of their final three games, that means all bets are off in the post-season. Anything goes if we can show we can beat the top teams in the conference. If they limp in at 9-8 or 8-9 somehow, it just means we're playing for a worse draft pick.

I fell for this headline. I was goosed! Oh no!

I‘d like to see them win their last 8 games of this season, but for now I’d be happy with a win over the Raiders.

 

[BTTA]

I wonder if BUF will sit Allen vs us if they have nothing to play for.

Might be what we need to sneak in

Odds are pretty good that the #1 seed remains in play on the last weekend, and given that it is the only bye, will be much sought after.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Odds are pretty good that the #1 seed remains in play on the last weekend, and given that it is the only bye, will be much sought after.

Maybe. We don't that - yet

 

[Triumph]

I wonder if BUF will sit Allen vs us if they have nothing to play for.

Might be what we need to sneak in

The Chiefs have @ Houston, Seattle, Denver and @ Las Vegas.

The Bills have Miami, @ Chicago, @ Cincinnati and NE.

The Bills schedule is definitely more difficult. Buffalo cant afford to lose the NE game unless they have a 1 game lead over KC.

 

[venecol]

I wonder if BUF will sit Allen vs us if they have nothing to play for.

Might be what we need to sneak in

I think BUF will be battling the 2nd seed with CIN (who overtakes BAL w/o Jackson in the N), so no let up from them in the last game.

 

[Real fan 02]

The Patriots are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. They basically need to win out to control their own destiny.

This is nothing new. The best Patriots teams played their best football in the cold months of December and January. If they want to show they belong in the postseason, they need to win the rest of the way. This year in particular our defense practically has to put the team on its back and carry it to that postseason. Let's see if they can do it enough for that to happen.

I Hear ya! But to harp on your point of patriots teams played thier best in December and January. That is true, only difference is we had the GOAT. Along with a true offensive scheme, and Brady demanded near perfection on offense.

I'm one of the most optimistic fans there is. However I've come to the realization that this entire season nothing was accomplished to ascend Mac, and the offense. Now with injuries starting to mount especially on defense and offense it makes the margin for error even smaller. I'm having a hard time trying to find another win on the remaining schedule. However anything can happen!

 

[Real fan 02]

The Chiefs have @ Houston, Seattle, Denver and @ Las Vegas.

The Bills have Miami, @ Chicago, @ Cincinnati and NE.

The Bills schedule is definitely more difficult. Buffalo cant afford to lose the NE game unless they have a 1 game lead over KC.

Doesn't Buffalo have the head to head over KC? I would have to think McDermott believes his team can win on the road. Depending on how the seeding ends up Buffalo may be content on who they face and sit Allen week 18..

What do you think?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Five teams (Cin 9-4, Mia 8-5, NE 7-6, LAC 7-6, NYJ 7-6) are fighting for the 3 WC spots. We have to go 3-1 and finish 10-7, and we're not beating the Bills, so we have to win the next 3 (LV, Cinci, Miami). Tough but not impossible, but even then we need some luck cause all 5 teams could finish 10-7 or better.

Ideally the Jets lose 2 of the next 3 (Det, Jac, @Sea), then rally to beat Miami somehow in the last game. If Miami also loses to us and Buffalo, we're in because both Mia and the Jets would be at 8 losses.

If Cinci loses to Buffalo and us, maybe they also can lose 1 more to either Tampa or Baltimore. We'd have the tiebreaker with them in that case.

The Chargers have an easier schedule (TN, @Indy, Rams, @Den) and will probably also finish 10-7.

How does the tiebreaker work if 3 or 4 teams finish at 10-7?

 

[Real fan 02]

Besides the talent issues, I thought that this team had no fight in it. If it is true that the players united 'against' the coaches to the point where BB and company needed a couple of days to regroup, they just might have a chance to catch some lightning in a bottle at the end of the season. Realistically, I just want the games to be competitive and fun to watch.

Five teams (Cin 9-4, Mia 8-5, NE 7-6, LAC 7-6, NYJ 7-6) are fighting for the 3 WC spots. We have to go 3-1 and finish 10-7, and we're not beating the Bills, so we have to win the next 3 (LV, Cinci, Miami). Tough but not impossible, but even then we need some luck cause all 5 teams could finish 10-7 or better.

Ideally the Jets lose 2 of the next 3 (Det, Jac, @Sea), then rally to beat Miami somehow in the last game. If Miami also loses to us and Buffalo, we're in because both Mia and the Jets would be at 8 losses.

If Cinci loses to Buffalo and us, maybe they also can lose 1 more to either Tampa or Baltimore. We'd have the tiebreaker with them in that case.

The Chargers have an easier schedule (TN, @Indy, Rams, @Den) and will probably also finish 10-7.

How does the tiebreaker work if 3 or 4 teams finish at 10-7?

Great information ! It's not easy for us being in the thick of a being mediocre team.

I guess I could say the best thing for us is to try to put ourselves in position to win next 3.. as you stated Buffalo week 18 is a automatic loss!

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

We play on Saturday??

Hey you're an a-hole by the way

Tell me something I didn't know. Who pi**ed in your Cheerios????

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Five teams (Cin 9-4, Mia 8-5, NE 7-6, LAC 7-6, NYJ 7-6) are fighting for the 3 WC spots. We have to go 3-1 and finish 10-7, and we're not beating the Bills, so we have to win the next 3 (LV, Cinci, Miami). Tough but not impossible, but even then we need some luck cause all 5 teams could finish 10-7 or better.

Ideally the Jets lose 2 of the next 3 (Det, Jac, @Sea), then rally to beat Miami somehow in the last game. If Miami also loses to us and Buffalo, we're in because both Mia and the Jets would be at 8 losses.

If Cinci loses to Buffalo and us, maybe they also can lose 1 more to either Tampa or Baltimore. We'd have the tiebreaker with them in that case.

The Chargers have an easier schedule (TN, @Indy, Rams, @Den) and will probably also finish 10-7.

How does the tiebreaker work if 3 or 4 teams finish at 10-7?

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[Triumph]

Doesn't Buffalo have the head to head over KC? I would have to think McDermott believes his team can win on the road. Depending on how the seeding ends up Buffalo may be content on who they face and sit Allen week 18..

What do you think?

I believe that the # 1 AFC seed remains neck and neck until the last regular season game.

Seattle has the best shot at beating KC but they are forecasting single digits temps at Arrowhead next weekend.

Both NE @ Buffalo and KC @ Las Vegas are played in the same time slot.