Paul Perillo Made an Excellent Point on Mac vs. Zappe

[Ian]

Also, the league hasn't changed their basic stats in the 12 years since I started tracking them. PFF and others have changed quite a bit and their goal is to provide additional context that the basic totals don't give people. That's why people pay for them and that's why even people within the league use them.

 

[Wozzy]

PFF player grades blow

 

[Wozzy]

Mac threw 7 interceptions over his last five games last season, this with the genius as his offensive coordinator.

Mac hasn't regressed, he simply hasn't progressed since last year outside of cardio.

It's funny how we have to bend over backwards (analytics) to excuse Mac's piss poor play and turnovers.

But we also have bend over backwards to explain why Zappe's incredible start isn't actually good.

And all of this ignores Mac's entire body of work including last season... which tailed off dramatically at the end of the year.

 

[Ian]

And @venecol, I'm not saying the kid isn't good. I think I posted his second-half totals over the last few games (which are in the database) and he's 26-of-33 (78.8%) for 323yds with 4 touchdowns and 0 INTs, with most of those attempts coming in the 3rd QTR (18-of-21 [85.7%] 220yds and 4TDs).

I am saying that if PFF is showing a better percentage on a higher degree of difficulty, it's probably true but - to the exact same point I made last night - the argument can be made that Zappe hasn't been asked to do it yet. That's also why I've sort of sat back because I'm trying to pull back since I don't see the point of arguing over two guys on the team when this whole thing is going to play out however it ultimately does.

 

[Rob0729]

It's really funny how Bedard all of a sudden gets high praise when he was getting raked over the coals for criticizing Patricia, the offense & Mac when Mac was playing. So which is it? Are Bedard's opinions now irrefutable & reliable or is he the media whore looking for clicks as was said all season.

I am not giving him high praise. In fact, I heavily qualified his analysis. I said "FWIW" and he is "clearly not the end all or be all of analysis". How is that high praise. I am just listening to him and giving his analysis.

And I can't remember if I raked him over the coals, but I did have a problem with him and others killing Patricia before he had a chance to fail. But that has nothing to do with him breaking down film.

 

[Wozzy]

Zappe made 7 “big time throws” (dumbest PFF “stat” ever) against Cleveland, his 9 yards per attempt was the best average on the season by any QB after Mac’s game against Baltimore… but he didn’t throw 4 interceptions.

Can Zappe get better, or has he peaked after two starts?

Just dumb…

 

[Ian]

I am not giving him high praise. In fact, I heavily qualified his analysis. I said "FWIW" and he is "clearly not the end all or be all of analysis". How is that high praise. I am just listening to him and giving his analysis.

And I can't remember if I raked him over the coals, but I did have a problem with him and others killing Patricia before he had a chance to fail. But that has nothing to do with him breaking down film.

His written stuff is great but his on-air persona is frustrating. But I always liked him when he was with the Globe, Sports Illustrated, and even now at BSJ, which I think it's safe to say most of us were rooting for him since he provided opportunities for guys who ultimately may have moved on elsewhere had he not done it.

 

[Sicilian]

There are two things we don't really know in this conversation (yet):

1) How much of the offensive improvement the last two weeks is because of the offense as a UNIT gelling and finding their identity. The O-Line (outside of Wynn) has largely stabilized and guys like Henry, Smith, Parker, and now Thornton are being used in different ways. This could be Zappe excelling, but IMO is more likely the offense as a whole shifting.

2) How it will look when we face a defense that is talented enough and well coached enough to exploit a rookie QB. We see it with Belichick teams every year: Even when the defense overall isn't one of the strongest they've ever had, they always find ways to confused and exploit inexperienced QB's. The Lions with all their injuries and Dan Campbell, as well as the Browns without Ward, Clowney, and a hobbled Garrett don't have the brain or brawn to dictate terms.

They'll go with who they think gives them the best chance to win, but the circumstances that Mac played under were not comparable to those that Zappe has had the last two weeks. We'll find out the answers to the questions above one way or the other either if Mac plays against Chicago, or if Zappe gets another nod against someone like Buffalo.

 

[venecol]

Again, the numbers are different. That's why PFF's totals don't match ESPN or NFL.com - they're interpreted differently. The rest, mine included, are just basic hard numbers. I match ours to the league's splits for the sake of trying to be as accurate as I can.

Yea, I'll stick with the reliable sources. Guys like Bedard introduce subjectivity in their analysis that may affect their stats. To each his own.

 

[Ian]

Yea, I'll stick with the reliable sources. Guys like Bedard introduce subjectivity in their analysis that may affect their stats. To each his own.

That's why I've limited mine to being even with NFL.com's because since I'm a nobody, at least people can cross-reference the overall totals against the league's if there's any doubt. Again, the biggest change I made was being able to break them down by span of games, down, quarter, etc. I did that because I got tired of not being able to find those and just figured it would be easier to start tracking them. So that's sort of how it started. CBS Sports is the only site that has those (down, quarter), which is where I compare those against to make sure mine are right.

It's changed a bit and I added the ability to also break them down by QB in 2016 because I wanted to break down completions/attempts by each QB to each receiver while Brady was out. That also came in handy during preseason, since obviously various QBs appear in a game and at least that way, you could sort of see who they were targeting, etc. The directional totals are obviously also tracked by the league, but they don't separate out the zones, etc. by player. They just show overall totals. So I added that, along with the rushing/receiving chart by distance, etc. along with red zone receiving.

But all of that is just manipulated off the plays and how the league does it. I'm going to add player pages at some point along with some other week-by-week breakdowns. Just haven't gotten around to it. Not enough hours in the day

 

[Thelonious]

I think this is obvious to anyone with a pulse. Mac had a leash last year. Everyone hear acknowledged it. They needed to take the leash off eventually. He was going to start making better plays but also more mistakes. People were jarred that year 2 wasn’t an improvement in every aspect. It was never going to be. When you teach a kid how to ride a bike, once you take the training wheels off, they are better skill wise than when they started, but they will still look less sturdy and have issues until they figure it out.

This is Mac without training wheels. He needs to get the time to figure it out. Every young QB will have growing pains. Peyton Manning went into the league with no training wheels, he looked great, but he also led the league in interceptions.

Eventually you do need to give your QB the chance to fail a bit and learn what it’s like without a safety net so they can adapt or grow. Or we can just keep him as a system QB and have a low ceiling and wonder why never seem to win key games in critical situations

Mac without training wheel throws ints. Zappe, with the training wheels hiked up significantly last week, threw none, and won the game.

 

[venecol]

Ted Johnson has a slight Zappe fever. He contradicts many of the Zappe hating posters here with their poor takes on "only throwing to 1st read, didn't face any pressure, easy throws, etc." Even more interesting is the reaction from the Patriots players to what Zappe has been able to do. Enjoy.

zappe cleveland passes - Search Videos

www.bing.com

 

[venecol]

That's why I've limited mine to being even with NFL.com's because since I'm a nobody, at least people can cross-reference the overall totals against the league's if there's any doubt. Again, the biggest change I made was being able to break them down by span of games, down, quarter, etc. I did that because I got tired of not being able to find those and just figured it would be easier to start tracking them. So that's sort of how it started. CBS Sports is the only site that has those (down, quarter), which is where I compare those against to make sure mine are right.

It's changed a bit and I added the ability to also break them down by QB in 2016 because I wanted to break down completions/attempts by each QB to each receiver while Brady was out. That also came in handy during preseason, since obviously various QBs appear in a game and at least that way, you could sort of see who they were targeting, etc. The directional totals are obviously also tracked by the league, but they don't separate out the zones, etc. by player. They just show overall totals. So I added that, along with the rushing/receiving chart by distance, etc. along with red zone receiving.

But all of that is just manipulated off the plays and how the league does it. I'm going to add player pages at some point along with some other week-by-week breakdowns. Just haven't gotten around to it. Not enough hours in the day

I love your sortable stats page (2022 New England Patriots Stats | Sortable 3rd Down, Red Zone Passing and Rushing Patriots Stats.) but that seems like a hell of a lot of work. Thank you.

 

[Ian]

Ted Johnson has a slight Zappe fever. He contradicts many of the Zappe hating posters here with their poor takes on "only throwing to 1st read, didn't face any pressure, easy throws, etc." Even more interesting is the reaction from the Patriots players to what Zappe has been able to do. Enjoy.

zappe cleveland passes - Search Videos

www.bing.com

They have it in Chicago too. Reporter Larry Mayer (a writer on the team site) was asked Jones vs Zappe and said "Zappe". He also said "Brady over Belichick".

 

[Ian]

I love your sortable stats page (2022 New England Patriots Stats | Sortable 3rd Down, Red Zone Passing and Rushing Patriots Stats.) but that seems like a hell of a lot of work. Thank you.

The crazy part is, updating it isn't terrible and I track the plays during the game, which is how I post the QB stats by down, etc. in the game thread and on Twitter.

But building out the sortable part was a pain in the a**. I actually have to re-code it because of some of the recent changes with PHP are causing some issues. I have the shell of that done, but I have to redo all the stuff that displays it. So it's going to be a bit.

However, like you said, I love being able to compare ranges of games against previous years and pull numbers that I otherwise wouldn't be able to elsewhere. That's how I wrote the two entries on Meyers and the ground game yesterday and I wouldn't have been able to do those without it. Although, those don't get seen by many people outside of here, so hopefully a few people here found them interesting.

 

[rogerthat]

People keep talking about Zappe lacking the arm strength to make the big throw. Since when did Mac have elite arm strength? I thought this was THE weakness in his game.

I'm no coach, but Mac's deep throws early in the year looked really bad.

I was one who didn't want to draft Mac in round 1 because of lack of arm strength. It's very clear to me that Zappe has a much stronger arm.

 

[Rob0729]

Ted Johnson has a slight Zappe fever. He contradicts many of the Zappe hating posters here with their poor takes on "only throwing to 1st read, didn't face any pressure, easy throws, etc." Even more interesting is the reaction from the Patriots players to what Zappe has been able to do. Enjoy.

zappe cleveland passes - Search Videos

www.bing.com

I know you are talking about me. I am not a Zappe hater. I have already said that it may look that way because of my debating style. I have said repeatedly he was impressive on Sunday, but I believe that Mac Jones is better. I also said he could sway me that he is better if he keeps playing and playing well. That is far from a hater.

 

[rogerthat]

Bedard obviously has an agenda as his take is so wildly divergent from reality as to be offensive. Zappe clearly moves better in the pocket than Jones does. His game is more crisp and decisive than Mac's. He is the better football player right now.

 

[venecol]

I know you are talking about me. I am not a Zappe hater. I have already said that it may look that way because of my debating style. I have said repeatedly he was impressive on Sunday, but I believe that Mac Jones is better. I also said he could sway me that he is better if he keeps playing and playing well. That is far from a hater.

No, there are a lot of posters here hating on Zappe for some ungodly unknown reason. It makes no sense.

I attribute it to their large investment in Mac apparel and gear. I guess.

Is it time to start a Mac sub-forum?

 

[Ian]

No, there are a lot of posters here hating on Zappe for some ungodly unknown reason. It makes no sense.

I attribute it to their large investment in Mac apparel and gear. I guess.

Is it time to start a Mac sub-forum?

I would say the biggest issue is all the people who want to ditch Mac and go all-in with Zappe already. Those are the people who have sort of created the negative reactions, which is sort of frustrating. I mean, I get it, you can't ride one horse with two a**es but right now, it's a non-issue until Mac gets healthy.

Again, this whole thing is going to resolve itself, I'm sure. But his ascension has actually created a good problem football-wise, which I wish was the larger discussion but it's not. It's either "he sucks" or "he's not as good". There's no happy medium, and that's what's making this whole experience a little more painful than it needs to be.