Paul Perillo Made an Excellent Point on Mac vs. Zappe

[Ian]

I posted from @Ian stats data base. I'll let him explain to you why 15+ is considered deep.

That's an NFL designation - not mine. The league counts anything up to 15yds as a "short" attempt and anything over that as a "deep" attempt.

 

[Ian]

Also, that designation is based on air yards. So if a pass is caught 3yds out and the receiver takes it 15yds for an 18yd gain, it's a "short" attempt. If the pass travels 18yds in the air on the play and the receiver catches it, it's a "deep" attempt.

 

[Rob0729]

I posted from @Ian stats data base. I'll let him explain to you why 15+ is considered deep.

But we are not talking about a deep pass in terms how calculate them in the stats books. We are talking about the ability to stretch the field with a really long pass down the field. It is two different things.

People say that Mac Jones can't throw the deep ball, but he has a 66% completion percentage of balls thrown over 20 yards. That's higher than Patrick Mahomes and .1% less than Justin Herbert. But when people complain about Jones' deep ball passing, that isn't what they are talking about. It is when he throws 30 plus yards down the field.

 

[Rob0729]

That's an NFL designation - not mine. The league counts anything up to 15yds as a "short" attempt and anything over that as a "deep" attempt.

Yeah, that is what we are talking about. A really deep pass to stretch the field.

 

[Ian]

But we are not talking about a deep pass in terms how calculate them in the stats books. We are talking about the ability to stretch the field with a really long pass down the field. It is two different things.

People say that Mac Jones can't throw the deep ball, but he has a 66% completion percentage of balls thrown over 20 yards. That's higher than Patrick Mahomes and .1% less than Justin Herbert. But when people complain about Jones' deep ball passing, that isn't what they are talking about. It is when he throws 30 plus yards down the field.

Various outlets classify them differently. Again, that's just how the league classifies them. Although, this is a league with all the technology in the world with players wearing sensors for their NextGen Stats, which could really break things down better yet they don't, and that website has also been broken for two+ years (the top navbar doesn't work - you have to manually put in the URL because the drop down and links won't change the page...it's unreal). So you know, there's that

 

[VrabelJr]

Yeah, that is what we are talking about. A really deep pass to stretch the field.

There are so few of these by a QB per year that the distribution and variance would be insane so as not to be useful for any conclusions.

 

[venecol]

But we are not talking about a deep pass in terms how calculate them in the stats books. We are talking about the ability to stretch the field with a really long pass down the field. It is two different things.

Of course you are.

People say that Mac Jones can't throw the deep ball, but he has a 66% completion percentage of balls thrown over 20 yards. That's higher than Patrick Mahomes and .1% less than Justin Herbert. But when people complain about Jones' deep ball passing, that isn't what they are talking about. It is when he throws 30 plus yards down the field.

His deep ball accuracy is not good. Again, from Ian's data base.

 

[Rob0729]

Various outlets classify them differently. Again, that's just how the league classifies them. Although, this is a league with all the technology in the world with players wearing sensors for their NextGen Stats, which could really break things down better yet they don't, and that website has also been broken for two+ years (the top navbar doesn't work - you have to manually put in the URL because the drop down and links won't change the page...it's unreal). So you know, there's that

How can you trust any Next Gen stats if they cannot fix their website that broke two years ago.

But for this discussion, we don't need any stats. This is easily an eyeball test thing. Has Zappe hucked the ball down field for a long bomb that connected? You can argue that Parker catch was one, but marginally.

To be fair, he hasn't thrown one and failed from what I can remember. So there is no evidence he just sucks at it. He just hasn't had the opportunity.

 

[venecol]

Various outlets classify them differently. Again, that's just how the league classifies them. Although, this is a league with all the technology in the world with players wearing sensors for their NextGen Stats, which could really break things down better yet they don't, and that website has also been broken for two+ years (the top navbar doesn't work - you have to manually put in the URL because the drop down and links won't change the page...it's unreal). So you know, there's that

What does the NFL know about classifying passes into short and long with a 15 yard division between them. They should adopt the more appropriate @Rob0729 definition of: "A really deep pass to stretch the field" to make better sense of what's actually happening.

 

[Rob0729]

Of course you are.

His deep ball accuracy is not good. Again, from Ian's data base.

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The official numbers has Jones at 66% for deep passes which again is higher than Mahomes and just under Herbert.

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Completion Percentage

Free NFL football player stats and stats leaders in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks completion percentage statistics.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[Rob0729]

What does the NFL know about classifying passes into short and long with a 15 yard division between them. They should adopt the more appropriate @Rob0729 definition of: "A really deep pass to stretch the field" to make better sense of what's actually happening.

LOL! I get that you hate me and try in vain to discredit me, but my point is the same point several other people in this thread has argued. There is a difference between what the league calculates as a deep pass and what is generally accepted when someone throws a deep pass.

Zappe has yet to prove he can snap the ball on the opposing team's 35 yard and complete a bomb into the endzone or a pass to that effect. That is the point that I and several people have made. Not saying he can't do it. He just hasn't shown he can yet.

 

[venecol]

The official numbers has Jones at 66% for deep passes which again is higher than Mahomes and just under Herbert.

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Completion Percentage

Free NFL football player stats and stats leaders in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks completion percentage statistics.

www.teamrankings.com

Your link shows Completion %, which Mac is #15 (not bad) at 66%. Zappe is #2 at 72.9

 

[Rob0729]

Your link shows Completion %, which Mac is #15 (not bad) at 66%. Zappe is #2 at 72.9

That is my bad. I am wrong there the site listed it as his over 20 yard completion percentage and I went with it. Should have looked closer.

 

[Zuma]

Your link shows Completion %, which Mac is #15 (not bad) at 66%. Zappe is #2 at 72.9

66% isn’t bad at all. 73 is just better.

 

[venecol]

LOL! I get that you hate me and try in vain to discredit me, but my point is the same point several other people in this thread has argued. There is a difference between what the league calculates as a deep pass and what is generally accepted when someone throws a deep pass.

Zappe has yet to prove he can snap the ball on the opposing team's 35 yard and complete a bomb into the endzone or a pass to that effect. That is the point that I and several people have made. Not saying he can't do it. He just hasn't shown he can yet.

I don't care enough about you to hate you dude. You discredit yourself with your rants about Zappe only played good because of A, B & C; and Mac only played poor because of A, B & C. Come on man. Please stop your nonsense.

What is generally accepted? By who?

Zappe has never been known for not being able to throw a very deep pass. He did it routinely in college, just like Mac did. But hey, let's crucify him because he hasn't had the opportunity.

 

[venecol]

That is my bad. I am wrong there the site listed it as his over 20 yard completion percentage and I went with it. Should have looked closer.

If you look at Ian's data base, his completion % on 15+ yards is 38% (10 of 26), so it doesn't make sense that his really deep passes would be at 66%.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't care enough about you to hate you dude. You discredit yourself with your rants about Zappe only played good because of A, B & C; and Mac only played poor because of A, B & C. Come on man. Please stop your nonsense.

What is generally accepted? By who?

Zappe has never been known for not being able to throw a very deep pass. He did it routinely in college, just like Mac did. But hey, let's crucify him because he hasn't had the opportunity.

I never said Zappe is only good for any reason. I said he was impressive on Sunday, but he did play easier competition and the offense was different than Mac Jones. Both are facts.

 

[Ian]

How can you trust any Next Gen stats if they cannot fix their website that broke two years ago.

I don't - just pointing out how the league has technology to tell us more than "short" vs "deep" attempts yet they don't.

My numbers match the league's totals. I just set this one up in such a way where I could break it down by down/qtr/range of games, etc. which the normal stat site (and no one else's) really does, at least not easily. But I do check the individual splits against other sites to make sure they're accurate. But in terms of interpretations like this, it's obviously limited to how the league classifies them since I manually enter everything based on their #s.

 

[Ian]

I never said Zappe is only good for any reason. I said he was impressive on Sunday, but he did play easier competition and the offense was different than Mac Jones. Both are facts.

PFF does do a better job of reviewing everything in context, so I do agree with this. Zappe's totals on paper are great and so are a lot of the things he does execution-wise. Again, he's been terrific.

But in terms of really comparing him against Jones, I would say they'd be better about telling us more about that. It's still sort of a tough debate and after last night, I've resigned myself to just letting it play out since none of us have any control over it.

 

[Ian]

If you look at Ian's data base, his completion % on 15+ yards is 38% (10 of 26), so it doesn't make sense that his really deep passes would be at 66%.

It depends, if they're basing it off of deeper attempts, than that probably explains it. I'll do some digging on this.