Game Day Thread Official Post Game Thread- Bills beat the Pats

[DropKickFlutie]

When you see the cap hits for Agholor and Smith and compare this to their production and targets they are the worst signings. When your top paid players are invisible like this it’s going to be tough to get the talent you need. Our OC needs to think how he can get them more involved
They combine for 800 yards and 4 TD with listed at 27 Million combined cap hit

The OC isn't even trying to involve Jonnu. The last 3 weeks Jonnu with 0 targets, 1 target, and 0 target. Jonnu clearly is a weapon who scored 8TDs on the Titans. We need a new OC. A new OC who actually is committed to 2TE power football.

.

 

[PatsFan2]

It wasn't much of a free agent frenzy. We were one of the few teams with cap space in a pandemic year that crunched the cap, so no one was spending. The amount we spent on someone like Bourne was an absolute bargain. Agholor didn't really get a big haul either but his guaranteed money is such that we can revisit his contract in a year if he doesn't produce more. Judon was the only star purchase and he performed. Now you can look at Jonnu Smith's $ relative to his performance and call it a bust, but that's very different than calling it a spending spree.

We're not even maxed out against the cap next year. We can do more in free agency. The money we spent on FAs in the past year isn't going to tie us up at all.

Oh my don't tell me we're going to be handcuffed by J Smith and Aguilar contracts next year. Bye bye JC Jackson...Slowquan might finally get it *scrcasm*.

 

[PatsFan2]

True about that Agholor interception. That really set the tone. But that’s the problem. If we had 50-50 situations, it’s more likely that our players will not make it 51-49. They are just a step behind all the time.

Bills CB played like polished WR on that play.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

The OC isn't even trying to involve Jonnu. The last 3 weeks Jonnu with 0 targets, 1 target, and 0 target. Jonnu clearly is a weapon who scored 8TDs on the Titans. We need a new OC. A new OC who actually is committed to 2TE power football.

.

Well McD admitted he needs to do a better job at involving jonnu so i hope next season they will get there but Smith needs to do a better job himself ,most of the time you noticed him was due to a flag or holding

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I wanna know WHY Smith was just in front of Meyers, probably 9' away- tipping the ball.
Why would that happen?
Kurt Warner was showing a different play last week, and I saw 2 pass catchers within 6' of each other (didn't go back to check WHO), that just puts more defenders in the same area...
Are these Play Calls, or wrong routes being ran?

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I wanna know WHY Smith was just in front of Meyers, probably 9' away- tipping the ball.
Why would that happen?
Kurt Warner was showing a different play last week, and I saw 2 pass catchers within 6' of each other (didn't go back to check WHO), that just puts more defenders in the same area...
Are these Play Calls, or wrong routes being ran?

My guess would be on the wrong route being ran

 

[WhatJustHappened]

I'm Guessing the same.
There has to be a reason Jonnu's snaps are so low, my guess, is he is having trouble making the correct reads.

I could easily be wrong, but it won't be the 1st time a new player has had trouble picking it up.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I'm Guessing the same.
There has to be a reason Jonnu's snaps are so low, my guess, is he is having trouble making the correct reads.

I could easily be wrong, but it won't be the 1st time a new player has had trouble picking it up.

That’s a pretty expensive lesson to be learned. You shell out 50 million on this guy you better make damn sure you have a plan on how he’s going to be used and that he can execute it.

 

[Triumph]

LOL! Thanks for the best laugh of the day. This was a great piece of sublime satire. Almost bought you believed what you wrote…. Wait? What?!? You believe it?

Look at the face of the video in this link. Ryan Fitzpatrick shows love for Bills, braves cold & goes shirtless at Highmark Stadium playoff game vs. Patriots

Agahlor is turning back for the ball. IF the pass was higher so Agahlor catches the pass in FRONT of him, Hyde cant swoop in and steal the ball. Mac Jones pass was slowly floating in like a Canadian goose landing on a pond. With any zip Hyde could not get there in time.

Facts will not matter to you and the other Mac excuse makers and apologists. But, you will see in about 3 years that Pop Up Mac lacks an NFL arm.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

For whatever reason, they locked in on Jonnu as an option at TE, and the dead cap will be prohibitive til 23 and expensive even in 23, with 2024 being the first year where it's not cap-stupid to cut him. Whatever they thought they'd get done with him in year 1 was not happening. We can guess at the issue. I just assume that what they wanted out of him, he couldn't pick it up in year 1.

Big drop off in targets and receptions from 2020 to 2021 (about a third of his productivity) but the biggest dropoff was in TDs, from 8 to 1. We wanted him to make a big step up from 30 yards per game on 2-3 receptions to, say, 40 or 50 ypg, which is huge for TEs not named gronkowski, kelsey, kittle, et al. He made a big step down to 18.4 y/g, so <2 rec./game on avg (at 10.5 y/r). Between expectations and the actual drop-off, he's providing about half the productivity you'd expect in general, but it's even worse as a goal line TE. Was Mac not ready to use him at the GL? Because truthfully, 8 TDs for Jonnu (His 2020 total) out of 22 passing TDs total would be ridiculous (though it could happen). But add those 8 TDs to Hunter Henry's 9, and that's 17 total to the TEs. The natural answer is, sure, but if you're adding the extra 7 to the total... etc. (and you'd want that on top of the 24 rushing TDs, not cannibalzing them).

So I don't want to be on the wrong end of what becomes "the ochostinko of tight ends," but... what were his opportunities? We knew HH was producing as a pass-catching TE.

What set gets you 2 TEs both being the primary, secondary, or tertiary read on a pass play - randomly assigning HH the primary roll?

If that's not the situation we're envisioning, is it possible -- just possible - that even though we like Mac Jones, he might not be going through progressions to 4th or 5th reads, especially against the better defenses?

with Tom Brady back there, if you have 2 stud TEs - not saying we do, but if - you've got the firepower to make the most of both of them. With Rookie Mac back there, whether by rookie ceiling or by coordinator dictat, we didn't get that situation.

Rookie Mac is, amazingly, better than "Rookie" 2001 Brady was, by many numerical measures. But Rookie Brady took that team all the way, so we look back at him as the larval form of the league-eating Bradyzilla of later years.

But we're spoiled like that.

Anyway, maybe I know nothing, and it is typical for a rookie with a so-so O-line to go deep into the reads on any given play, and to read and react super quick. If not, though, it seems likely that the Jonnu issue is a matter of being TE no. 2 on a team that probably can make proper use of 1 pass-catching tight end this season.

Realistically, we have 3 more years to figure out whether both TEs will hit. I think lining up for both was like buying 1 of them but with the applecare policy.

 

[TomPatriot]

I wanna know WHY Smith was just in front of Meyers, probably 9' away- tipping the ball.
Why would that happen?
Kurt Warner was showing a different play last week, and I saw 2 pass catchers within 6' of each other (didn't go back to check WHO), that just puts more defenders in the same area...
Are these Play Calls, or wrong routes being ran?

Either Smith or Meyers made the wrong read.

 

[masterbouncer]

For whatever reason, they locked in on Jonnu as an option at TE, and the dead cap will be prohibitive til 23 and expensive even in 23, with 2024 being the first year where it's not cap-stupid to cut him. Whatever they thought they'd get done with him in year 1 was not happening. We can guess at the issue. I just assume that what they wanted out of him, he couldn't pick it up in year 1.

Big drop off in targets and receptions from 2020 to 2021 (about a third of his productivity) but the biggest dropoff was in TDs, from 8 to 1. We wanted him to make a big step up from 30 yards per game on 2-3 receptions to, say, 40 or 50 ypg, which is huge for TEs not named gronkowski, kelsey, kittle, et al. He made a big step down to 18.4 y/g, so <2 rec./game on avg (at 10.5 y/r). Between expectations and the actual drop-off, he's providing about half the productivity you'd expect in general, but it's even worse as a goal line TE. Was Mac not ready to use him at the GL? Because truthfully, 8 TDs for Jonnu (His 2020 total) out of 22 passing TDs total would be ridiculous (though it could happen). But add those 8 TDs to Hunter Henry's 9, and that's 17 total to the TEs. The natural answer is, sure, but if you're adding the extra 7 to the total... etc. (and you'd want that on top of the 24 rushing TDs, not cannibalzing them).

So I don't want to be on the wrong end of what becomes "the ochostinko of tight ends," but... what were his opportunities? We knew HH was producing as a pass-catching TE.

What set gets you 2 TEs both being the primary, secondary, or tertiary read on a pass play - randomly assigning HH the primary roll?

If that's not the situation we're envisioning, is it possible -- just possible - that even though we like Mac Jones, he might not be going through progressions to 4th or 5th reads, especially against the better defenses?

that might be true for Mac that he is not reading the field as fast and as good as some veterans out there yet, but might it be, just for some case, that Jonnu was not really involved by design? if Jonnu is out there supposed to block instead of running a route is Mac supposed to wait for Jonnu to get open? I think that Smith was not utilized as good as other OCs did with him in the past, so the drop off might be more on the OC than on the QB, because Mac obviously was able to connect to the other TE who was involved in RZ, just a thought

Might also speak more to Smith capability to (not) run proper routes and get open consistantly or be a non factor in the RZ?

I don't know, at least I can't recall any play during the season where Jonnu Smith was open and Mac just didn't hit/see him except for the INT vs Falcons or who was it? unlike Agholor, even Harry was open big time on some occasions because no one is taking care of him, he would anyway drop the ball no need to cover him

 

[bigballas]

They need to find a WR1, and they need to decide whether or not they think Bourne can be a legit WR2. In an ideal WR world, they'd slot Bourne and Meyers as the WR3/WR4 guys, but they likely won't invest the money at the top for that.

bourne is a legit WR2...the pats OC just is a dumbass that didnt use him for whatever reason. all analytics show bourne has success when utilized

 

[50-yard-line]

There's a lot to think about. eh? What are the takeaways? What do I know: not much! But here's what I think. Most of it is obvious; the rest is probably erroneous:

1) Mac is not as good as Josh Allen, and he's not likely ever to be. But he's good enough already to get into the playoffs - that's proven - so in the near term at least - a few years? - we do not "have a quarterback problem." Last year, when we had that stumblebum Cam launching random eephus shots all over the ball yard, we did, but we no longer do. Mac is good enough, which, if you can put a decent team around him is ... good enough.

Agree.

2) The jury is emphatically out on Steve and Jarrod (et al) as NFL-level defensive coaches. I say the jury is out rather than 'they blow" because...

3) The defense is old and slow. Hightower is past it, and the LB's as a group are sub-par and slow as molasses. The secondary is sub par, particularly, taken as a group, the corners. There's more reason for hope with the safeties. We need one more YOUNG dynamic pass rusher who can be at least serviceable against the run. Judon kinda c--pp-d out at the end there. He is what he is, or was, and what he is is pretty good but clearly not all we thought it might be early on. Keep him, but get a plan B.

Agree, except part of Judon's crapping out, I believe, was lack of any creativity up front. Line up and go, over and over again. Plus, for some reason I cannot understand, it is apparent legal in the NFl to choke Matt Judon on every play.

4) A few players are just hopeless. N'Keal is irreparably bad. Wynn is worth keeping but he will never be what we hoped. He lacks focus and discipline, and he can't hack any sort of adversity, healthwise or otherwise. I hoped for a while that Jonnu would get his head out of youknowwhere, but evidently it's superglued up in there. Agholor is hopeless, and way overpaid. Cut your losses and get rid of him. I don't even think he's trying, tbh.

4) This team does NOT have a #1 receiver, nor does it have anybody who shows any realistic prospect of becoming one. If we have a slot guy, I'm not sure who that might be. We have ONE decent tight end, and one only, The second one is not presently on the roster, and we need to go get him.

Here's where we'll disagree. not on Harry - he needs to be out of here, for his sake and for the Pats' sake. it's beyond broken.

I have a hard time laying crap on Jonnu and Agholor when they simply won't use them correctly. Maybe it was because of narrowing the field of vision for a rookie QB, but the Pats built a team with lots of good, but no one great, weapons. Doing that, then icing out 2 of the five seems kind of, I don't know, stupid?

Smith can play - he had one awful game. You can say that about almost anyone. Agholor should have had at least two, maybe three, easy long TDs early in the year, but the ball never went his way. He's a solid #2 receiver, and he's paid like one. The guys you seem to be comparing him to get 10-12-14 targets a game. No one on the Pats, other than Meyers a few times, gets more than 5-6.

5) I think Josh is an excellent coordinator, but he has GOT to let Mac have the reins more going forward, and avoid getting seduced by his cautiousness into the run-run-pass trap.

Josh is okay and did a great job with Mac. but there's a difference between a few trick plays and creating simple schemes that get people open, and frankly, I don't see that on the Pats, and haven't for years. I watch the Niners and they've got guys running free all over the place. Same with the Bucs. That's design, and having a QB (with the Bucs) who makes his own design).

6) The season was a success, given the improvement, but the rebuilding is far from done. I expect about the same sort of result next year. What this team is thereafter will be determined by the off season, by the team's success at replacing a significant number of players who are past it, or about to be, or just no d---d good.

Agree.

biggest prolem I see going forward is that, for some reason, the Pats REFUSE to develop the young, athletic players they draft. Winovich, Uche, Perkins, Jennings all come to mind. As bad as that front 7 performed down the stretch, Uche and Winovich on the bench was sinful - I really thought those guys would have been spies on Allen.

 

[TomPatriot]

For whatever reason, they locked in on Jonnu as an option at TE, and the dead cap will be prohibitive til 23 and expensive even in 23, with 2024 being the first year where it's not cap-stupid to cut him. Whatever they thought they'd get done with him in year 1 was not happening. We can guess at the issue. I just assume that what they wanted out of him, he couldn't pick it up in year 1.

Big drop off in targets and receptions from 2020 to 2021 (about a third of his productivity) but the biggest dropoff was in TDs, from 8 to 1. We wanted him to make a big step up from 30 yards per game on 2-3 receptions to, say, 40 or 50 ypg, which is huge for TEs not named gronkowski, kelsey, kittle, et al. He made a big step down to 18.4 y/g, so <2 rec./game on avg (at 10.5 y/r). Between expectations and the actual drop-off, he's providing about half the productivity you'd expect in general, but it's even worse as a goal line TE. Was Mac not ready to use him at the GL? Because truthfully, 8 TDs for Jonnu (His 2020 total) out of 22 passing TDs total would be ridiculous (though it could happen). But add those 8 TDs to Hunter Henry's 9, and that's 17 total to the TEs. The natural answer is, sure, but if you're adding the extra 7 to the total... etc. (and you'd want that on top of the 24 rushing TDs, not cannibalzing them).

So I don't want to be on the wrong end of what becomes "the ochostinko of tight ends," but... what were his opportunities? We knew HH was producing as a pass-catching TE.

What set gets you 2 TEs both being the primary, secondary, or tertiary read on a pass play - randomly assigning HH the primary roll?

If that's not the situation we're envisioning, is it possible -- just possible - that even though we like Mac Jones, he might not be going through progressions to 4th or 5th reads, especially against the better defenses?

with Tom Brady back there, if you have 2 stud TEs - not saying we do, but if - you've got the firepower to make the most of both of them. With Rookie Mac back there, whether by rookie ceiling or by coordinator dictat, we didn't get that situation.

Rookie Mac is, amazingly, better than "Rookie" 2001 Brady was, by many numerical measures. But Rookie Brady took that team all the way, so we look back at him as the larval form of the league-eating Bradyzilla of later years.

But we're spoiled like that.

Anyway, maybe I know nothing, and it is typical for a rookie with a so-so O-line to go deep into the reads on any given play, and to read and react super quick. If not, though, it seems likely that the Jonnu issue is a matter of being TE no. 2 on a team that probably can make proper use of 1 pass-catching tight end this season.

Realistically, we have 3 more years to figure out whether both TEs will hit. I think lining up for both was like buying 1 of them but with the applecare policy.

Jonnu had a fumble in the first game and 3 drops in the next two games. I think those early troubles set the tone for his lack of use for the rest of the season.

 

[Deus Irae]

bourne is a legit WR2...the pats OC just is a dumbass that didnt use him for whatever reason. all analytics show bourne has success when utilized

That's not how it works.

 

[Patnation21]

At this point, baring medical reasons, it is safe to assume Belichick will coach until he at least at least breaks Shula's win record. Depending on how Jones develops, he might stick around until he wins another ring.

But four weeks ago, the perception of the Bills was they didn't beat anyone and they were a soft team and their dominance of the AFC East was already coming to an end. The perception of this team has changed on a dime in a month's time. Is this the real Bills that we are going to see for the next 3-5 years or are they just getting hot at the right time?

I think it's the real Bills and unfortunately it will be longer than 3 to 5 years as Allen is only 25, Diggs 28. They draft well and have alot of youth and are very well coached. They were a SB favorite for a reason.

I think we played above our heads for a stretch and the Bills were struggling around the same time so it seemed like we were closing the gap when it wasn't reality.

I'm expecting a bit of regression next year to be honest. We have alot of aging players and alot of needs. I think it's gonna take a few years of drafting and getting the right FA's.

 

[bigballas]

That's not how it works.

please explain then...

analytics = yards of separation, contested catch rate, yac, catch %, dvoa, etc. all show he is on par with other top WR2's...

he's run route out of the wr2 position, but only playing like 50% of the snap....

so how does it work?

edit: ...unless you're implying he's not durable?

 

[Rob0729]

I think it's the real Bills and unfortunately it will be longer than 3 to 5 years as Allen is only 25, Diggs 28. They draft well and have alot of youth and are very well coached. They were a SB favorite for a reason.

I think we played above our heads for a stretch and the Bills were struggling around the same time so it seemed like we were closing the gap when it wasn't reality.

I'm expecting a bit of regression next year to be honest. We have alot of aging players and alot of needs. I think it's gonna take a few years of drafting and getting the right FA's.

Diggs isn't old, but he isn't young either when you are looking at plans beyond 3-5 years. Diggs will be 33 in five years. You think he will be the receiver he is at 34 or 35? He could be. Will the Bills even resign him at the end of his contract when his contract is up. He will be 31 when he is an UFA next. That is an age where some teams might decide to move on.

And the salary cap past 2023 will be a huge determinator factor of how long they can keep it together. Allen's cap numbers right now for the future are cap killers. But if the cap explodes in 2023 and beyond, it may not be.

When I say 3-5 years, that is because they have a lot of young talent. If they were an older team, I would say the window is less than 3-5 years. If you have a lot of talent, you can't keep it all together for more than 3-5 years even if it is a young team. Players want to get paid and you cannot pay all your players coming off of rookie deals top dollar. You have to pick and choose who you keep and who you let go. The Bills could defy the odds and draft players who are at least nearly as good to replace the players they lose, but that isn't a guarantee. Or who knows, the McDermott/Allen combination could turn into Belichick/Brady 2.0 and overcome talent deficiencies to be a contender year after year despite a talent drain. I doubt it though.

Look back to 3-5 years ago and you will see many or most of the top teams then are not the top teams now. Or some have completely retooled their roster in the five years even at QB (look at the Rams who made the Super Bowl with Goff four years ago, but are back in the playoffs with a new QB and a lot of changes on the roster). Many of them had elite to near elite QBs and young talent.

We are used to the Patriots being contenders year after year and dominating the AFC. The reality is that there is a lot of change over for division leaders and playoff teams and few teams hold onto those spot for more than 3-5 years. Most don't even hold on that long.

 

[Patnation21]

Diggs isn't old, but he isn't young either when you are looking at plans beyond 3-5 years. Diggs will be 33 in five years. You think he will be the receiver he is at 34 or 35? He could be. Will the Bills even resign him at the end of his contract when his contract is up. He will be 31 when he is an UFA next. That is an age where some teams might decide to move on.

And the salary cap past 2023 will be a huge determinator factor of how long they can keep it together. Allen's cap numbers right now for the future are cap killers. But if the cap explodes in 2023 and beyond, it may not be.

When I say 3-5 years, that is because they have a lot of young talent. If they were an older team, I would say the window is less than 3-5 years. If you have a lot of talent, you can't keep it all together for more than 3-5 years even if it is a young team. Players want to get paid and you cannot pay all your players coming off of rookie deals top dollar. You have to pick and choose who you keep and who you let go. The Bills could defy the odds and draft players who are at least nearly as good to replace the players they lose, but that isn't a guarantee. Or who knows, the McDermott/Allen combination could turn into Belichick/Brady 2.0 and overcome talent deficiencies to be a contender year after year despite a talent drain. I doubt it though.

Look back to 3-5 years ago and you will see many or most of the top teams then are not the top teams now. Or some have completely retooled their roster in the five years even at QB (look at the Rams who made the Super Bowl with Goff four years ago, but are back in the playoffs with a new QB and a lot of changes on the roster). Many of them had elite to near elite QBs and young talent.

We are used to the Patriots being contenders year after year and dominating the AFC. The reality is that there is a lot of change over for division leaders and playoff teams and few teams hold onto those spot for more than 3-5 years. Most don't even hold on that long.

I agree for the most part but they arguably have a top 5 QB, Goff isn't even top 10. An elite QB can win games on his own as we know first hand. You can have holes with a QB like that and it doesn't matter.

Look at Green Bay. They have Rodgers who is a top 5 QB and they win year after year after year. They don't win the SB every year but are always one of the better teams even with bad defenses they notoriously have had.

The big difference between winning regularly year after year is having an elite QB and the Bills have that.