A Frustrating Observation On N'Keal Harry

[Wozzy]

Most of the fans on this board evaluate player acquisition & success from the wrong perspective.

Most view it as black/white/absolute/binary thing which it is not.

It's really relative to draft slot success rate relative to the position, draft capital investment and ROI which determines success.

Look at the 2019 Draft and UFA class /Round/ Starter success rate by round by position

Jake Bailey / 5/ N/A- Outcome: All-Pro

Chase Winovich/3/ 34%- Outcome: reserve

Joejuan Williams/2/46% Outcome: bust

Byron Cowart/5/13% Outcome: reserve

Jarrett Stidham/4/8%: Outcome: reserve

Damien Harris/ 3//16% Outcome: starter

Jakob Johnson/UFA/N/A Outcome: starter

Gunner Olszewski/UFA Outcome: All-Pro PR/ST

Jakobi Meyers/UFA/N/A Outcome: Starter

N'Keal Harry/1/58% Outcome: bust

So in the 2019 draft:
10 rookies in the pool
2 All Pros
3 starters
2 busts
3 picks which are reserves/had injuries in 2020

Harry and JuJuan were busts. Anytime you miss on high draft capital and get horrible ROI it's not a good thing.

The ROI relative to draft capital and % success Bailey, Guns, Meyers, Jakob, Harris were home runs,

Overall this was a good rookie/UFA class

I'd simplify it, the negative Nancies tell us all our players suck until they don't, and the moment the team lose a game these players suck again.

Execution doesn't exist, it's all about talent... which I'd like to think is the same as athleticism, but when you point out even athletic players like Harry have failed they argue about the science of it all. Brains and heart never fit into the equation anywhere.

The bad teams, the ones with all the high round draft picks... they have all the talent. It doesn't manifest into wins, but that's because they don't have Tom Brady... Bill got really lucky. It's a weird fever dream of QB fanboy histrionics, BB resentment and New England sport's fan malaise.

Now BB is winning again with another QB he drafted, so this group is reeling... and pinned to a thread about a kid who didn't even play this week instead of talking about the young WR who stepped in and did really well. It's an age old Boston sports forum enigma, how can something wildly successful like BB, a winning team or players suck at their job. A lot of these people telling us our players are no good were the ones saying the same thing in the midst of the 2014, 2016 and 2018 seasons. After it's over, they'll ignore the paradox of how such a poor team with talentless players could win it all.

 

[Toofy]

Not true. For example Malcolm Butler was evaluated. Mike Wright was eval'd by Patricia. JC Jackson, etc.

What would your grade be on overall player acquisition?

Agree. Bad misses.

Luck that they were available?

Agree.

Agree

I feel we have a great coaching and support organization which is able to paper over the draft whiffs.thats why the overall outcome looks good. The drafting process was broken in the first 2 rounds for the last decade or so. So no wonder bill decided to always trade down.

Besides having Brady and the good fortune of Edelman, Gronk and amendola in prime allowed us to be competitive despite draft misses . Now with Mac, we need to have playmakers or difference makers in WR obtained through the draft .

Just imagine if we did not get barmore this season what would have happened ? That's a difference maker who contributed immediately while allowing us not to expend crazy dollars on free agency and gave some latitude to move our dollars around other positions.

Isn't it normal as a fan to expect a deebo Samuels or hunter renfrow as a WR on the pats team. Why are we cursed to see ppl layers like Harry and asiasi and trades gave us sanu and agholor ...

By now I hope they have figured how to draft a CB/WR. Failures are said to be stepping stone to success. We have whiffed and muffed so much on WR/CB and have laid miles of failure staircases so far in this quest. High time we see a ray of hope and some success.

 

[Wozzy]

I think undrafted is more the luck of the draw because if they really evaluated them well they would have been taken . And I think it's a testament to the training and coaching. So we can say the overall results are good, but if I were to do a appraisal for the drafting team I wouldn't give them good grades.

You can't consistently keep whiffing on 1st and 2nd rounders. We need the playmakers . Harris is great, no doubt .
Nkeal and joejuan just kill it with their uselessness.

As a whole we got lucky due to UDFA.

But why do we miss so much of the first 2 rounders with close to 0 contribution. Wynn is okay but by picking up his 5th contract we need to see how that turns out. If he flops next year then cumulatively we have been screwed by Wynn's pick when you compare performance to the compensation and draft profile.

Last year was the first draft in years where we felt good.

2020 is also shaping to be good. Having all pro on special teams is great, just doesn't give you the same feeling of striking gold like a offensive or defensive player.

When Malcolm Butler left college he said he got zero phone calls from NFL teams except one, he was working the fry station at Popeye's Chicken at the time. One team called. But yeah... it was "luck."

Like the Brady pick was luck, Mac being there at 15 was luck... they sure do get lucky a lot in New England.

 

[PatsFan2]

Obviously not comparable on length of time (to be fair, no one regime has the longevity to make apples to apples comparisons with BB, so we work with what we've got), but the 2004-2006 Lions hold the title IMO. They drafted a WR in the top 10 three straight years, and didn't really hit on ANY of them. Charles Rogers (36 career catches, #2 overall pick), Roy Williams (the best of the three with 393 career catches, but still not worth the #7 overall pick), and Mike Williams (127 career catches, 10th overall pick). That is a trio of failure while using top of the draft assets, which makes the Harry pick look trivial in comparison. They finally hit a few years later on Calvin Johnson, but by that point they had NO core for the rest of the team, and 1/4 on top ten pick WR's is a level of suck that BB couldn't muster with a titanium straw.

Points taken but I wasn't taking about Top 10 or Top 5 WR's in a particular Draft. I am taking the WR talent available when the Patriots was Drafting....ie Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin.... Chad Jackson instead of Greg Jennings.

 

[PatsFan2]

Points taken but I wasn't taking about Top 10 or Top 5 WR's in a particular Draft. I am talking about the WR talent available when the Patriots was Drafting....ie Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin.... Chad Jackson instead of Greg Jennings. Brandon Tate over Mike Wallace... Aaron Dropson over Keenan Allen. The Patriots formula used for Drafting WR's early is just horrible. One of these years we might get lucky. One of these days they are going to throw crap at the wall at WR and something is going to stick.

 

[PatsFan2]

When Malcolm Butler left college he said he got zero phone calls from NFL teams except one, he was working the fry station at Popeye's Chicken at the time. One team called. But yeah... it was "luck."

Like the Brady pick was luck, Mac being there at 15 was luck... they sure do get lucky a lot in New England.

Ding... Ding... Ding....that's it luck if the Patriots knew Brady was going to be that Great. They wouldn't have selected him with their second pick in the Sixth Round.

 

[Toofy]

When Malcolm Butler left college he said he got zero phone calls from NFL teams except one, he was working the fry station at Popeye's Chicken at the time. One team called. But yeah... it was "luck."

Like the Brady pick was luck, Mac being there at 15 was luck... they sure do get lucky a lot in New England.

My point is drafting is crapshoot mostly failures in first 2 rounds . They have a better ability to develop UDFA into contributors . That's on coaching and not on drafting . If they were so confident on the player they would have drafted in 6th or 7th round as opposed to getting them as UDFA.

There are 2 organizations. Hiring and the other is development. The first organization is what was a dumpster fire for the better part of last decade.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I feel we have a great coaching and support organization which is able to paper over the draft whiffs.thats why the overall outcome looks good. The drafting process was broken in the first 2 rounds for the last decade or so. So no wonder bill decided to always trade down.

Besides having Brady and the good fortune of Edelman, Gronk and amendola in prime allowed us to be competitive despite draft misses . Now with Mac, we need to have playmakers or difference makers in WR obtained through the draft .

Just imagine if we did not get barmore this season what would have happened ? That's a difference maker who contributed immediately while allowing us not to expend crazy dollars on free agency and gave some latitude to move our dollars around other positions.

Isn't it normal as a fan to expect a deebo Samuels or hunter renfrow as a WR on the pats team. Why are we cursed to see ppl layers like Harry and asiasi and trades gave us sanu and agholor ...

By now I hope they have figured how to draft a CB/WR. Failures are said to be stepping stone to success. We have whiffed and muffed so much on WR/CB and have laid miles of failure staircases so far in this quest. High time we see a ray of hope and some success.

Fun fact: In the last 14 years the team has picked only higher than 11th once in the first round and had 2 first rounders taken way.

Likelihood of an NFL player starting in year 1 being picked after 15th in the first round is 28%.

Fans do not account for the degree of difficulty in drafting NFL players.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

A repeat starter on one of the best units in football is a good player. That he has a troubling injury history is problematic enough to move on in free agency, both he and Sony got a lot of miles put on them at Georgia.

Funny how nobody, beyond injuries, complained about Wynn for the last few years until now... now he's a bad pick. Laughable.

Are you blind people have complained about Wynn for years. Only started 16 of 48 games before this year. And this year was not good.

.

 

[Toofy]

Fun fact: In the last 14 years the team has picked only hire than 11th once in the first round and had 2 first rounders taken way.

Likelihood of an NFL player starting in year 1 being picked after 15th in the first round is 28%.

Fans do not account for the degree of difficulty in drafting NFL players.

Not disputing that, but we should at least have 1 Hunter renfrow level draft success amongst wide receivers. Malcolm Mitchell comes closest . But he was just for a year.

And sanu and agholor trades have not given us the difference playmakers.

Meyers and Bourne are great value picks but do not show superstar / wr 1 potential . We always had one playmaker at least , now we have none . Hence the angst aming patriot fans. We just need our next version of a player who can be remotely close to Welker or moss or Edelman or Gronk.

 

[PatsFan2]

Not disputing that, but we should at least have 1 Hunter renfrow level draft success amongst wide receivers. Malcolm Mitchell comes closest . But he was just for a year.

And sanu and agholor trades have not given us the difference playmakers.

Meyers and Bourne are great value picks but do not show superstar / wr 1 potential . We always had one playmaker at least , now we have none . Hence the angst aming patriot fans. We just need our next version of a player who can be remotely close to Welker or moss or Edelman or Gronk.

Exactly... gotta have an Elite type Skill position player at WR and TE. Our current cast are ok at best this current Offense won't scare Playoffs Defenses unless someone catches lightening in a bottle so to speak not holding my breath.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not disputing that, but we should at least have 1 Hunter renfrow level draft success amongst wide receivers. Malcolm Mitchell comes closest . But he was just for a year.

Why? There is a 15% success rate in finding a starting WR like Renfrow in the 5th round. We have him in Meyers. Are your expectations too high perhaps?

And sanu and agholor trades have not given us the difference playmakers.

Neither did the AB singing. Thats FA for you.

Meyers and Bourne are great value picks but do not show superstar / wr 1 potential . We always had one playmaker at least , now we have none . Hence the angst aming patriot fans. We just need our next version of a player who can be remotely close to Welker or moss or Edelman or Gronk.

Welker was UFA and a trade. Moss was a trade for a 4th. Edelman was a 7th rd conversion of a QB who was a STer/WR4 for 4 years, Gronk was a medical that dropped to the 2nd rd.

Better off playing black jack and hoping for Ace/Jack.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Points taken but I wasn't taking about Top 10 or Top 5 WR's in a particular Draft. I am taking the WR talent available when the Patriots was Drafting....ie Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin.... Chad Jackson instead of Greg Jennings.

There are 20+ receivers with better production taken after NKeal Harry.

.

 

[203Pat]

Gunner is third in the NFL in return average, this on a team that couldn't block consistently. He hasn't changed.

Wynn made mental errors, as a free agent he's only costing himself money. That being said his talent isn't in question, his health certainly is. For that reason I think they should move on like they did with Sony. It doesn't make him a bad player. Nobody notices offensive linemen until they screw up. Early in the season our best offensive linemen were screwing up, that's execution not talent.

JoeJuan will come in handy if they play a team with large WR's, the Pats predominately play three safeties so there's only so many reps for corners to go round. When he played, he played well.

Asiasi plays sparingly, as a third TE behind two of the better TE's in the league I don't know what you expect.

Wilkerson ended preseason by dropping a bunch of passes, he seems to have worked on his hands. The past doesn't change just so 203Pat can make a point on Patsfans.com. Also the team was utilizing Harry's blocking, especially when Jonnu was dinged up. They're not staring at the roster wondering if tinkering with the 4th WR on the roster is going to be a massive change.

Why did you focus on a few players acquired as rookies and ignore the rest? Oh yeah, because players acquired as rookies prior to this year even have contributed to this 2021 turnaround. You jokers say everybody on the Patriots sucks and even our good players are "average" or "okay." Good grief... again, take your antidepressants. This team's in the playoffs.

Gunner has been average and isn’t always the most sure handed as evidenced by Bill inexplicably deciding Harry should return a punt in the wind.

Wynn has made mental errors in addition to being beat multiple times. He also isn’t a free agent as Bill picked his option up. Do you even follow this team?

Yea Joejuan is just a secret weapon waiting to be unveiled. Definitely not a second round bust who’s spent half his career as a healthy scratch.

As for Asiasi I expect a player to play football if he can play football. Malcolm Butler was an UDFA and still found his way on the field while behind Revis, Browner, Kyle Arrington, and Logan Ryan. Asiasi clearly can’t play.

Wilkerson looks like he’s a better receiver than Harry flat out. And he also plays special teams. Either Harry played over him because he’s a first round pick or Wilkerson made tremendous strides since preseason. Either way Harry shouldn’t be on the field.

I focused on names from the list you provided. I’m done talking to you. You’re a clueless homer.

 

[Toofy]

Why? There is a 15% success rate in finding a starting WR like Renfrow in the 5th round. We have him in Meyers. Are your expectations too high perhaps?

Neither did the AB singing. Thats FA for you.

Welker was UFA and a trade. Moss was a trade for a 4th. Edelman was a 7th rd conversion of a QB who was a Ster/WR4 for 4 years, Gronk was a medical that dropped to the 2nd rd.

Better off playing black jack and hoping for Ace/Jack.

Exactly. Not seeing those value signings for the last 5 years.

Meyers is an UDFA . Not gauging draft success by it and he is not close to hunter renfrow for now .

 

[RobertWeathers]

Exactly. Not seeing those value signings for the last 5 years.

Meyers is an UDFA . Not gauging draft success by it and he is not close to hunter renfrow for now .

The lens should be "player acquisition success". The draft is only one path to player acquisition

 

[sieglo]

Good decision by Jakobi.

Healthy scratch N'Keal Harry's ineffectiveness is magnified in his absence

LMAO if Belichick was sensitive about the Harry pick before, how will he feel now with Jakobi publicly saying he knew at the time Belichick made a bad pick? Hope he doesn’t bench Meyers and give Harry more reps!

 

[RobertWeathers]

LMAO if Belichick was sensitive about the Harry pick before, how will he feel now with Jakobi publicly saying he knew at the time Belichick made a bad pick? Hope he doesn’t bench Meyers and give Harry more reps!

He wasn't and doesn't care.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

When Malcolm Butler left college he said he got zero phone calls from NFL teams except one, he was working the fry station at Popeye's Chicken at the time. One team called. But yeah... it was "luck."

Like the Brady pick was luck, Mac being there at 15 was luck... they sure do get lucky a lot in New England.

luck is the intersection of preparation and opportunity, which is why people associate luck and the patriots so much.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We should trade harry to arizona for Isabella.