I promise I won’t poo poo the opponent every week in a homer fashion
Is it me or is this Dolphins personnel on D not very good?
EDGE Ogbah
DT Wilkins
DT Davis
EDGE Van Ginkel
LB Baker
LB Roberts
CB Howard
CB Jones
NB Coleman
FS Holland (r)
SS Rowe
I’m not sure what vegas sees in this team when you factor in the OL is a dumpster fire.
I agree, Breakdown time.
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
On defense the Dolphins have an okay but not particularly good pass rush. The Wilkins pick didn't work out how they hoped. He's good, but not great. And this is year 3 for him, so i'm not expecting any huge jumps. Ginkel, Davis and co are solid but not particularly impactful players. long story short, if they come with 4, they aren't getting there too quickly. Not only that. They lack size up front. It makes me wonder if they plan to put there pass rush in even worse shape by taking speed off to get more beef out there.
Speaking of the run, I don't talk it up much in most games. But this game it could be a big factor. I could see this being a game where the Pats get over that all important 5YPA threshold. This Miami team will need to do something schematically to stop our run game, or they will lose to it. Those safeties are going to have to cheat up. Agholor who hasn't made a lot of noise this camp could catch a few big ones this game because of it. But I expect Howard to be on him much of the game, so it isn't like singling him up isn't something the Dolphins can't afford to take their chances on, it is a chance though.
Byron is a good corner, but not what he use to be. I don't know why he regressed, but he's not 'that guy' anymore. Still plenty good and an amazing #2 to have. But at this point I question his ability to be a #1. Still, he will probably pretty much smother whoever he is on, which I think will be Meyers. This is very much going to be a feast or famine game for the Pats WRs. I could see several big plays being made in 1v1 and long period of them doing nothing. Bourne on Coleman would be interesting, but I don't see the Pats doing many 3WR sets this game. It would play to the dolphins strength and our weakness. This is clearly a 2TE set game with 2 WRs who stretch the field and keep the defense honest vertically.
Our OL is better at run blocking than pass blocking. And with 2 TEs we can force the other team to go heavy on LB and respect it. I don't see us letting the Dolphins get in nickle much. That 3rd LB will be on the field a lot. And that isn't so good for Miami. Their LB core is the worst part of their D. And I don't even know who their 3rd guy is, and I don't need to. If the 2 starters are any indication, he's pretty bad. This is the kind of game where we get our TEs and RBs on LBs and feast on those match ups. If the Dolphins put an extra DB on the field to cover it we run until they go heavy. And when they are heavy and bringing those safeties down, it will be a good time to take some play action shots. I think we have the chance to hit a few huge ones for a quick 7 if we get lucky, though their DBs win those 1v1s more often than not. But they only need to lose once or twice for it to be worth it.
Speaking of safeties. I'm not sure what their plan is there. Rowe is clearly one, but he isn't what he was. Is McCourty going to see time as the other or the 3rd CB? Will they go with the rookie all game? Hard to know. Something to watch, but I think if the rookie struggles they are quick to pull him for McCourty. Not the player he use to be, but still a solid back up who could be a respectable #3.
I see our offense having long drives and success but stalling a bit when things tighten up in the red zone. We will need our big TEs to make some plays there and Nordin better make those kicks! Mac Jones will get a pretty easy first game, not because he is facing easy competition per say, but because this is a very straight forward match. Attack the LBs, bait the Safeties and be wary of the CBs. When a team is clearly strong in one spot and clearly weak in another. It should make the QBs decision making easier.
Patriots Defense vs Dolphins offense
Let me say this first. Tua is not going to be good this year. He wasn't good last year, and this year he is a slightly improved version of not good, at least that is my opinion. That is important to note as it is key to their success. The Dolphins run game is okay, but not something to be worried about. Tua is a good but not deadly runner. It is worth it to take a little risk to try to get to him. He tends to give up on a play quickly when under pressure and look to escape and run. Let's make him do that. Their OL isn't good, and that was before their starting LT went out. There is no excuse for Tua having time. Judon should feast this game, but this should also be a Winovich game. i would like us to all out attack here on the DL and dare them to run on us a bit. With that OL I'm not sure how much push they get right now.
As for their weapons. They certainly have some. Parker is the #1 and Waddle is an exciting rookie on his first start. He could be very silent or make a lot of a noise. The big threat though IMO is Gesicki. I don't think we have a great answer for him. Jackson on Parker should be a battle. Waddle on Jones will be amazing. We often forget what an athletic guy Jones is. He really should be getting paid more than he is. Fuller not being out there hurts the Dolphins a lot. As this would be the game to test our depth now that we are down Gilmore. But they really can't.
If I was the Dolphins I would spread the Patriots out and see what can happen with our LBs in space. Maybe Waddle with enough room and show off his substantial talent. But 5 wide doesn't really play to Tua strength either. The Dolphins best chance is probably force feed Gesicki and Waddle in hopes they can create something. Maybe take a few deep shots to Parker too. They are better off keeping it simple with few options and attacking outside and down field. Over the middle into the teeth of our D is not where they want to be. Also that ball needs to come out fast. Gesicki and Waddle take some time to get to their spots. This means they need Waddle to have a big day.
I see this being a low scoring game where mistakes and turnovers can loom especially large. It is likely to be a grind it out kind of game, which means the trenches also matter more. The Pats easily win in both. If the Big plays don't substancially favor the Dolphins i see them being slowly pushed until they fall over.
Pats 23-13
