What would a trade up to 7 cost

[Love The Drake]

During the first week of free agency, a rumor was circulating and was posted here that the Patriots and Cowboys were discussing a trade where the Cowboys would trade#10 overall and Michael Gallop to the Patriots for #15 and Stephon Gilmore.

Who knows if there was anything to the rumor. It does make sense for both teams if you ask me, and I believe Gilmore has a lot more value than many of you think especially to a team like Dallas that wants to win NOW. But, getting to 10 at the cost of Gilmore and 15 while getting a useful WR would make it a whole lot easier to get to 7 if Fields was still be in the board.

The Pats 2nd pick plus 10 should be able to beat other offers Detroit might receive for 7. it would be like getting Fields for Gilmore and #15 and Gallop with our 2nd rounder. The Pats could sign Richard Sherman and resign Jason McCourty to make an effort to replace Gilmore.

This would make a lot of sense.

 

[jmt57]

Here is the Rich Hill Draft Value Trade Chart. It was last updated in 2017 and used historical draft trade data going back through 2011.

I just wonder if the recent QB trades combined with the increasing importance of the QB position make these carts semi-obsolete.

According to the chart the number 7 pick is worth 425.50 points.

The Pats have

• 1.15 -- (315.20 points)
• 2.46 -- (127.71)
• 3.96 -- (39.38)
• 4.120 - (23.10)
• 4.122 - (22.09)
• 4.139 - (15.13)
• 5.177 - (6.49)
• 6.188 - (5.08)
• 6.197 - (4.16)
• 7.242 - (1.53)

So in theory the Pats would need to trade their 1st and 2nd, and then would be in line to ask for a bit more back from Detroit (their 4.112 for our 4.139) along with the Lions #7 pick.

Another possibility would be to offer the Lions the Pats first, and a 2022 first (rather than 2.46 above).

While not having another pick until #96 would be far from ideal, with a 3rd and four 4ths there would be plenty of draft capital to move back up. Another option would be to ask for a 2022 3rd rather than a 2021 4th.

Not having 3.77 (idiotic filming of Bengals sideline) starts to look more egregious now; that would have been worth 59.85 points.



In terms of trading up for Atlanta's #4, that becomes more problematic; the #4 is worth 490.52. In other words the Pats would need to package 1.15, 2.46, 3.96 and 5.177. Now in this scenario the Pats would not have another draft pick all the way until 4.120, even worse than the 3.96 situation above.

 

[Love The Drake]

Here is the Rich Hill Draft Value Trade Chart. It was last updated in 2017 and used historical draft trade data going back through 2011.

I just wonder if the recent QB trades combined with the increasing importance of the QB position make these carts semi-obsolete.

According to the chart the number 7 pick is worth 425.50 points.

The Pats have

• 1.15 -- (315.20 points)
• 2.46 -- (127.71)
• 3.96 -- (39.38)
• 4.120 - (23.10)
• 4.122 - (22.09)
• 4.139 - (15.13)
• 5.177 - (6.49)
• 6.188 - (5.08)
• 6.197 - (4.16)
• 7.242 - (1.53)

So in theory the Pats would need to trade their 1st and 2nd, and then would be in line to ask for a bit more back from Detroit (their 4.112 for our 4.139) along with the Lions #7 pick.

While not having another pick until #96 would be far from ideal, with a 3rd and four 4ths there would be plenty of draft capital to move back up. Another option would be to ask for a 2022 3rd rather than a 2021 4th.

Not having 3.77 (idiotic filming of Bengals sideline) starts to look more egregious now; that would have been worth 59.85 points.



In terms of trading up for Atlanta's #4, that becomes more problematic; the #4 is worth 490.52. In other words the Pats would need to package 1.15, 2.46, 3.96 and 5.177. Now in this scenario the Pats would not have another draft pick all the way until 4.120, even worse than the 3.96 situation above.

Yes the Bengals taping infuriated me

 

[Ring 6]

No WE don't. Lance played like 12 games against kids that will be flipping burgers and selling insurance next year.

His level of skill is the same regardless of the competition. There is more of a projection with limited tape but it’s clear what his skills are.

 

[Ring 6]

I honestly can’t say when it comes to these QB’s, so much depends upon their heads, hearts, and ability to deliver under pressure. Ironically of the 3 actually available the one I question the most is Jones, because you are using the pick on the least talented QB (Jones) , who would have to turn out to be a Brady or Manning to be worth it, and that’s very unlikely, more likely is that he becomes Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill, and although that’s a clear upgrade over the present situation I don’t know if that’s the ceiling you are looking for. Although beggars can’t be choosers I would rather have Lance or Fields in a trade up, I would be ok with Jones at #15, but I don’t want to give up more for him. If they whiff on QB’s there a few guys I would want, Paye and Horn, and a few I don’t want, e.g.. D. Smith WR, and G. Rousseau, but other than that I really like the talent available to them at #15,

If you look back at first round qbs you see a strong trend of QBs drafted with good hc and oc succeed a lot more and QBs drafted into poor coaching fail a lot more.
Coaching has a huge impact.

You don’t have to draft a HOF QB for it to be worth drafting them. Right now the ceiling at our QB position is hoping we can win despite their play. And that’s after 2 off seasons of trying. I would gladly use this years 1 and 2 and next years 1 for a qb who will turn out to be capable and a guy this roster can compete to go deep into the playoffs with.
Because the alternative is that it looks like we can’t find a an any other way, besides the one nobody else would give up a bag of balls for.
What good is worrying about value when you are the worst team in the league at the most important position? We won’t win without fixing it and we haven’t found any other way to fix it.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

His level of skill is the same regardless of the competition. There is more of a projection with limited tape but it’s clear what his skills are.

That's a complete crock of shyt. And exactly what are his skills? He's big tall and can run fast? He played great against a bunch of juco kids.
I wish the kid the best, but It's happened far too many times. A team has over drafted a QB and the pressure to be the next guy is far to much and it's a complete failure.

Unfortunately it's not the kids fault, it's the incompetent GMs of shytty teams that draft them too early and then they completely fail. Then the kid is considered a bust because he was drafted too early, for a shyt team, with a bunch of garbage coaches.

Happens again and again and again in thre NFL.

 

[Ivan]

So SF traded the No.12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. What is the estimated value of this package? Is this a huge overpay according to draft charts? I wonder if we can't set a value that #7 is worth 1500 points because SF blew the curve? In the end, the value is whatever a team will accept. I have a feeling all will require overpayment and not the typical draft chart values.

I think it will be simple in that it will just depend upon what the other offers are, and how far does that team want to go down the board? The trade value charts are a loose template, what it comes down to is the offers and willingness to drop down so many spots. Unlike Daniel Snyder Belichick has a ceiling,

 

[imahobgoblin]

I honestly can’t say when it comes to these QB’s, so much depends upon their heads, hearts, and ability to deliver under pressure. Ironically of the 3 actually available the one I question the most is Jones, because you are using the pick on the least talented QB (Jones) , who would have to turn out to be a Brady or Manning to be worth it, and that’s very unlikely, more likely is that he becomes Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill, and although that’s a clear upgrade over the present situation I don’t know if that’s the ceiling you are looking for. Although beggars can’t be choosers I would rather have Lance or Fields in a trade up, I would be ok with Jones at #15, but I don’t want to give up more for him. If they whiff on QB’s there a few guys I would want, Paye and Horn, and a few I don’t want, e.g.. D. Smith WR, and G. Rousseau, but other than that I really like the talent available to them at #15,

I disagree to a point. I don't see Jones as the least talented. He is the least athletic among the top 5, but that does not make him the least talented. He could be the most cerebral of them all. Giardi was saying how he thinks Jones is the more pro-ready. That is possible. I have a hunch that Lance is more of a project than people think. Huge ceiling though. I would rather take a defensive player at 15 and pick up Mond later. Maybe double dip with Newsome. We have nothing to lose.

 

[Ring 6]

That's a complete crock of shyt. And exactly what are his skills? He's big tall and can run fast? He played great against a bunch of juco kids.
I wish the kid the best, but It's happened far too many times. A team has over drafted a QB and the pressure to be the next guy is far to much and it's a complete failure.

Unfortunately it's not the kids fault, it's the incompetent GMs of shytty teams that draft them too early and then they completely fail. Then the kid is considered a bust because he was drafted too early, for a shyt team, with a bunch of garbage coaches.

Happens again and again and again in thre NFL.

Oh jeez you are blaming players who fail on where they were drafted? And dumping it all on this kid. Ok pal.

 

[Joker]

Louis Riddick on Lance (you know, a REAL ex NFLer.,..not some message board know-it-all)

 

[Joker]

Chris Simms, the sub-moronic shytstain living off his father's rep, hates Trey Lance. Hmmmm....another positive in Lance's corner

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

If Fields really is going 5th in this group I would go up and get him. If anything this will put a chip on his shoulder. He shouldn’t be the 5th qb taken honestly.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Chris Simms, the sub-moronic shytstain living off his father's rep, hates Trey Lance. Hmmmm....another positive in Lance's corner

Hate him all you want, but he has nailed quite a few.

 

[Ollie]

His level of skill is the same regardless of the competition. There is more of a projection with limited tape but it’s clear what his skills are.

This isn't totally true. His rushing stats i think would be lower when playing against better athletes. It's easier to look like a big fish when playing against inferior athletes in a small pond. There is a reason not all draft picks make the jump to the nfl as they can't handle the jump in talent level and for him that jump will be much larger than for most. It clearly adds a question mark. that in combination with only playing a ltd number of games imdo think there are a lot of question marks.

 

[Ivan]

I disagree to a point. I don't see Jones is the least talented. He is the least athletic among the top 5, but that does not make him the least talented. He could be the most cerebral of them all. Giardi was saying how he thinks Jones is the more pro-ready. That is possible. I have a hunch that Lance is more of a project than people think. Huge ceiling though. I would rather take a defensive player at 15 and pick up Mond later. Maybe double dip with Newsome. We have nothing to lose.

We actually don’t disagree that much, as I think Jones is very pro ready, and I would be ok with taking him at #15. However, if they are going to use multiple 1st’s to trade up then I want a higher ceiling, which I think Fields and Lance both have, although there is probably more risk, especially with Lance.

It’s going to be interesting to see how things play out at QB. I believe Belichick looks to college to understand the direction the pro game is going, and I believe a major reason he was ready to move on from Brady is because he sees the need for a more athletic , point guard style QB, like Mahomes or Wilson going forward because of the speed defenses are playing with now. I feel like that’s an important piece he wants the team to have when he hangs them up. For that reason I don’t really think he is looking for a traditional pocket passer to lead them into the future. Only time and Belichick’s decisions will tell whether I’m right or not.

As far as this draft goes I’m fine with most of the options available to them, from trading up for a QB to taking the BPA, to moving down and adding a 2nd round pick and going with Mills, Mond, or Trask. The key thing to me is continuing to build a strong a team as possible while looking to find the QB of their future, and that may not happen this off-season.

 

[Ring 6]

This isn't totally true. His rushing stats i think would be lower when playing against better athletes. It's easier to look like a big fish when playing against inferior athletes in a small pond. There is a reason not all draft picks make the jump to the nfl as they can't handle the jump in talent level and for him that jump will be much larger than for most. It clearly adds a question mark. that in combination with only playing a ltd number of games imdo think there are a lot of question marks.

I said SKILL not stats

 

[The Boomer]

I said SKILL not stats

We actually don’t disagree that much, as I think Jones is very pro ready, and I would be ok with taking him at #15. However, if they are going to use multiple 1st’s to trade up then I want a higher ceiling, which I think Fields and Lance both have, although there is probably more risk, especially with Lance.

It’s going to be interesting to see how things play out at QB. I believe Belichick looks to college to understand the direction the pro game is going, and I believe a major reason he was ready to move on from Brady is because he sees the need for a more athletic , point guard style QB, like Mahomes or Wilson going forward because of the speed defenses are playing with now. I feel like that’s an important piece he wants the team to have when he hangs them up. For that reason I don’t really think he is looking for a traditional pocket passer to lead them into the future. Only time and Belichick’s decisions will tell whether I’m right or not.

As far as this draft goes I’m fine with most of the options available to them, from trading up for a QB to taking the BPA, to moving down and adding a 2nd round pick and going with Mills, Mond, or Trask. The key thing to me is continuing to build a strong a team as possible while looking to find the QB of their future, and that may not happen this off-season.

No trade up. Why trade up in the first round or a backup QB? It’s better to gamble, considering all the BS that precedes every draft, that pick 15 will yield decent value. The same argument could be made if one of the quarterbacks drops. However, the main difference is that a sliding QB has more chance to succeed on a better team than in the top 10.

Based on different theories, Fields, Lance or Jones could be there at 15. If not, a better rated talent is likely to be there.

Maneuvering up for your developmental backup on Day 2 makes more sense. A lesser overpay if they like Mills, Mond or someone else in Round 2. There is still a risk that their guy could end up on a winning team, such as Tampa Bay at the end of Round 1. In that event, they punt unless they like someone better.

Nevertheless, in terms of value, it is more reasonable to believe that a top 5 QB slides to 15 (the next Marino, Brees or Rogers?) who they can develop. Likewise, if they like Mills or another QB more than all others or who is there at 15, they pick another better value at pick 15 or trade back. They should have their pick among other quarterbacks that they like at 46. If not, they take a later flyer or don’t pick any QB.

 

[Ring 6]

No trade up. Why trade up in the first round or a backup QB. It’s better to gamble, considering all the BS that precedes every draft, that pick 15 will yield decent value. The same argument could be made if one of the quarterbacks drops. However, the main difference is that a sliding QB has more chance to succeed on a better team than in the top 10.

Based on different theories, Fields, Lance or Jones could be there at 15. If not, a better rated talent is likely to be there.

Maneuvering up for your developmental backup on Day 2 makes more sense. A lesser overpay if they like Mills, Mond or someone else in Round 2. There is still a risk that their guy could end up on a winning team, such as Tampa Bay at the end of Round 1. In that event, they punt unless they like someone better.

Nevertheless, in terms of value, it is more reasonable to believe that a top 5 QB slides to 15 (the next Marino, Brees or Rogers?) who they can develop. Likewise, if they like Mills or another QB more than all others or who is there at 15, they pick another better value at pick 15 or trade back. They should have their pick among other quarterbacks that they like at 46. If not, they take a later flyer or don’t pick any QB.

We don’t have a qb. We need to draft a qb who will start for 10 years, not a backup.
We aren’t winning without a Qb. All the “value” arguments in the world to you know good if you are in a league where QB play is by far the most important part of winning and you have the worst QB room in the league.

 

[pazrul72]

We don’t have a qb. We need to draft a qb who will start for 10 years, not a backup.
We aren’t winning without a Qb. All the “value” arguments in the world to you know good if you are in a league where QB play is by far the most important part of winning and you have the worst QB room in the league.

How many rookie quarterbacks lead to "winning" right out the gate year 1? I'll wait, the list is damn short. Drafting a qb, and I agree we need one, is about next year not this one and trading the whole draft for one that can save this year is poppycock. The real question is who can be a starter with a year on the bench to develop? That list is a little bit longer then the top 5 qbs

 

[pazrul72]

not necessarily
5 qb
1 te
3 wr
2 cb
2 ot
1 lb
==========
We have no guarantee at all of getting Belichick's choice of quarterback in the second. Even if he has 2 that he believes can succeed, both could be gone before we pick in the 2nd. I doubt that Belichick believes in more than two of the 2nd tier quarterbacks.

If 5 qbs go in the first then that is 5 teams that no longer need qbs. The next tier are generally considered 3rd round value so I am ok with a one round over draft to make sure you get the one you like. Even a small trade up is ok with me because at that point you are giving up a 4th not a future first or more.

If that worst case scenario happens then you do a small trade down to 21 or so and pick up an extra second to get 3 very good players instead of one elite. Depending on who is left on the board I might even prefer that route. For long term planning the pats need future starters at QB, OT, LB, CB, and FS. Getting 3 plan A starters for next year in one draft would be a very solid draft for me.