What would a trade up to 7 cost

[Ring 6]

How many rookie quarterbacks lead to "winning" right out the gate year 1? I'll wait, the list is damn short. Drafting a qb, and I agree we need one, is about next year not this one and trading the whole draft for one that can save this year is poppycock. The real question is who can be a starter with a year on the bench to develop? That list is a little bit longer then the top 5 qbs

Considering what we have at qb the rookie should play soon. Even if I accept your assertion that a rookie qb won’t help this year, then in addition to this year being lost we still have to play next year.
The list really isn’t longer than the top 5, with any level of confidence.
Considering that something along the lines of the last 75 QBs drafted outside of round 1 have won a combined zero playoff games, how do you expect to solve the gaping hemorrhaging hole we have at QB?
We aren’t winning with what we have.
QBs are expensive, and they are worth it, because a good one is a necessity.
Im not interested in taking the leftovers that aren’t worthy of spending what a good QB is worth and wallowing in mediocrity so we can brag through all those 8-8 seasons his we didn’t over pay for the qb that we would be winning with if we had

 

[pazrul72]

Considering what we have at qb the rookie should play soon. Even if I accept your assertion that a rookie qb won’t help this year, then in addition to this year being lost we still have to play next year.
The list really isn’t longer than the top 5, with any level of confidence.
Considering that something along the lines of the last 75 QBs drafted outside of round 1 have won a combined zero playoff games, how do you expect to solve the gaping hemorrhaging hole we have at QB?
We aren’t winning with what we have.
QBs are expensive, and they are worth it, because a good one is a necessity.
Im not interested in taking the leftovers that aren’t worthy of spending what a good QB is worth and wallowing in mediocrity so we can brag through all those 8-8 seasons his we didn’t over pay for the qb that we would be winning with if we had

Can you promise me that Lance, Fields, or Jones are going to be better then Cam? That they are going to be even average starters? That is the only way I would even think about giving up what you are talking about giving up for them. Here’s the fly in the ointment, you can’t do that because it is just as possible they are a complete and utter bust. Now your point about coaching and being on a quality organization is a good one and I trust BB to develop any QB taken to be the best he can be but even BB is human and doesn’t get everything 100% right. So agreeing that coaching and development time is valuable and important why are you throwing the rookie into the fire? Why do you have your sights so set only on the top 5 who possibly could start now? Mills, trask, or monds have the physical traits that if given that time to develop could be decent starters And they cost SO much less. Plus if they do bomb moving on from them is much easier so you can try again. Do you really have faith that the Patriots will get it right the first time and draft a 10 year starter enough so that you would set the franchise back 3 years if they miss? I don’t, not because I question BB who is an A+ coach/gm who knows 10,000x what I do, but just because a real starting quality QB is so rare and even with the best information its a gamble.

 

[Ollie]

I said SKILL not stats

The other points ares till valid. Also It's easy to look skilful playing against lower opposition. I look like barry sanders playing against my nephews.

 

[Ring 6]

Can you promise me that Lance, Fields, or Jones are going to be better then Cam?

it would be virtually impossible for them not to be.

That they are going to be even average starters? That is the only way I would even think about giving up what you are talking about giving up for them. Here’s the fly in the ointment, you can’t do that because it is just as possible they are a complete and utter bust.

I’m not sure
1) what you think I am giving up for them
2) how you think that you can “promise” anything about any draft choice.

Now your point about coaching and being on a quality organization is a good one and I trust BB to develop any QB taken to be the best he can be but even BB is human and doesn’t get everything 100% right. So agreeing that coaching and development time is valuable and important why are you throwing the rookie into the fire?

Because we won’t win this year with what we have. Starting the rookie by October both improves the chances of winning this season and accelerates the development of the QB

Why do you have your sights so set only on the top 5 who possibly could start now? Mills, trask, or monds have the physical traits that if given that time to develop could be decent starters And they cost SO much less.

Because they don’t. They aren’t in the top 5 for a reason. They cost so much less, because there ARE so much less. The game has evolved to the point where if you are a qb with a decent chance to be a good starter you are gone in round 1. Those guys have major flaws. To compare to another position a qb who falls to the 2nd or 3rd is like a position player who falls to 5th or 6th round. There is very little hope any of those guys will succeed, actually THEY would be the wasting pick that is over drafted.

Plus if they do bomb moving on from them is much easier so you can try again. Do you really have faith that the Patriots will get it right the first time and draft a 10 year starter enough so that you would set the franchise back 3 years if they miss?

I don’t, not because I question BB who is an A+ coach/gm who knows 10,000x what I do, but just because a real starting quality QB is so rare and even with the best information its a gamble.

This makes no sense.
You ding want to draft the guy most likely to succeed because if he doesn’t it sets the franchise back, so instead you will draft a guy with no chance to succeed and certainly set the franchise back?

I think the thing you are missing is that without a qb this team is going nowhere.
So nothing else really matters if you don’t fix qb.
Trading up to get a QB to fix the QB problem, even giving up what SF did results in a better team than using all those picks and not fixing QB.
It’s really that simple

You argument is akin to saying don’t sell the furniture to pay for fixing the roof that is leaking buckets. The furniture doesn’t do you any good when the roof is leaking on it.

 

[Ring 6]

.

 

[Boston Boxer]

I think you are projecting what you want it to cost, not what it would cost. Trades like these, especially on draft day almost never include players, they are pick trades. The lions would likely want the #15 as well as next years 1st.

I agree. to get to 6 or 7, those teams will want our 1st and 2nd rd picks for starters. I would hate to give up our 2nd round pick this year. I would like our 1st and 3rd this year and our 2nd next year. I doubt that does it though.

 

[Ring 6]

The other points ares till valid. Also It's easy to look skilful playing against lower opposition. I look like barry sanders playing against my nephews.

Not in the context of the discussion where I was saying level of competition and experience is not a skill but an evaluation handicap. Life long football professionals see skills regardless of who it is against or how many reps they see.
I’ll ignore the last sentence you clowned in there.

 

[pazrul72]

This makes no sense.
You ding want to draft the guy most likely to succeed because if he doesn’t it sets the franchise back, so instead you will draft a guy with no chance to succeed and certainly set the franchise back

I think the thing you are missing is that without a qb this team is going nowhere.
So nothing else really matters if you don’t fix qb.
Trading up to get a QB to fix the QB problem, even giving up what SF did results in a better team than using all those picks and not fixing QB.
It’s really that simple

You argument is akin to saying don’t sell the furniture to pay for fixing the roof that is leaking buckets. The furniture doesn’t do you any good when the roof is leaking on it.

ugh. You are infuriating. I have in other threads on this topic already given you plenty of examples of how it is not as cut and dry as you are making it. There is no black and white law that you MUST have a first round QB or YOU WILL NOT WIn. Is it the best way to build a multi year winner? Yes of course but it is not the only way. I honestly hope SF crashes and burns so I can use it as yet another precautionary tale when we have this debate again next year. Look at Arizona with Rosen. They had to use their #1 draft pick the very next year on yet another QB. Now congrats to them for having the balls to do it but they didn’t have to trade 2 years worth of high end resources. How happy would you be if the pats spent that much and got a Kyler Murrey? You know the guy who only started to look good when he got deandre Hopkins.

 

[Wozzy]

If Trey Lance is sitting there give them 15, JC Jackson and next year’s 2nd.

When this year’s second comes around trade back and recoup some draft capital.

 

[Uptown]

Allegedly..

 

[VJCPatriot]

ugh. You are infuriating. I have in other threads on this topic already given you plenty of examples of how it is not as cut and dry as you are making it. There is no black and white law that you MUST have a first round QB or YOU WILL NOT WIn. Is it the best way to build a multi year winner? Yes of course but it is not the only way. I honestly hope SF crashes and burns so I can use it as yet another precautionary tale when we have this debate again next year. Look at Arizona with Rosen. They had to use their #1 draft pick the very next year on yet another QB. Now congrats to them for having the balls to do it but they didn’t have to trade 2 years worth of high end resources. How happy would you be if the pats spent that much and got a Kyler Murrey? You know the guy who only started to look good when he got deandre Hopkins.

There's really no right or wrong. There's only a question of do you move up if you feel the right player is there.

In 2011, exactly a decade ago, Thomas Dimitroff called BB to ask his opinion about moving up in the draft for Julio Jones. BB advised against it because the cost was too high.

The Falcons did it anyways, they gave up five draft picks for the #6 pick and drafted Julio Jones.

Those picks were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2011 plus 1st and 4th in 2012.

Was it worth it?

Julio Jones has been a 7x pro bowler and a 2x all-pro. In hindsight the trade up was worth the cost.

Julio Jones stats: Julio Jones Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Was there any 'guarantee' that Jones would be as good as the Falcons felt he would be? Of course not, all draft selections are made upon projections, scouting, and a decision by the general manager. But it turned out to be the right move for the Falcons.

I don't see how anyone can say, it's never worth it to move up, or it's never worth it to move down. There are no absolutes. The real question is how does BB value the QBs at the top of this year's draft, and if one drops, is it worth it to move up for 'their guy'. I wouldn't be surprised or displeased if the Patriots chose to move up for a QB. But it all depends on how the draft falls and how the QBs are valued. If BB and the scouts feel that Fields or Lance are 1st round talents, I won't bat an eyelash if the Patriots give up a package to move up to #7 or #10 to draft him.

 

[Ring 6]

ugh. You are infuriating. I have in other threads on this topic already given you plenty of examples of how it is not as cut and dry as you are making it. There is no black and white law that you MUST have a first round QB or YOU WILL NOT WIn. Is it the best way to build a multi year winner? Yes of course but it is not the only way. I honestly hope SF crashes and burns so I can use it as yet another precautionary tale when we have this debate again next year. Look at Arizona with Rosen. They had to use their #1 draft pick the very next year on yet another QB. Now congrats to them for having the balls to do it but they didn’t have to trade 2 years worth of high end resources. How happy would you be if the pats spent that much and got a Kyler Murrey? You know the guy who only started to look good when he got deandre Hopkins.

No you have not given plenty of examples. It’s first round qb, or get lucky on a 1 in 200 or more shot.
And Arizona dramatically improved their team.
Im not a huge Murray fan but absolutely I would be thrilled. We would have been a playoff team last year and would be optimistic this year about contending instead of stuck with no chance because of the albatross around our neck at qb.
Qb is a gaping hole in this team and as many resources as necessary should be spent to fix it. If you are concerned about one busting, draft one of the Secunderabad tier guys too.

I am all about getting value with draft picks, building a team that is good all around. But QB is the exception. You have almost zero chance of getting one outside the first round, they have been unable to get one by any other means. You can’t win without a QB. That’s a fact. So there are 2 choices. Pay what it takes to get one with a high chance if succeeding at a high level or be cheap and go through a parade of slugs while wallowing in mediocrity.

With Brady here the patriots did what you suggest should be the plan without him.
Tell me where we would be with the guys we drafted in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc rounds as the starter the last 20 years.

 

[Ivan]

How many rookie quarterbacks lead to "winning" right out the gate year 1? I'll wait, the list is damn short. Drafting a qb, and I agree we need one, is about next year not this one and trading the whole draft for one that can save this year is poppycock. The real question is who can be a starter with a year on the bench to develop? That list is a little bit longer then the top 5 qbs

I agree with this. Trading for Garrapolo is about winning now, drafting a top QB prospect is about the future, not this season. That doesn’t mean Belichick doesn’t care about winning this season, he clearly does and he demonstrated that in free agency, but winning another Lombardi will take building a great team across the board, as well as getting a QB who can win when it matters most.

 

[Deus Irae]

Can you promise me that Lance, Fields, or Jones are going to be better then Cam? That they are going to be even average starters? That is the only way I would even think about giving up what you are talking about giving up for them. Here’s the fly in the ointment, you can’t do that because it is just as possible they are a complete and utter bust.

Stop with this. The draft is based upon perceived potential. It's not based upon established and known application of said potential. That is true at every position. But the NFL is a quarterback league. If you need a QB, and you think an available QB has real potential to be your QBOTF, you go get the player. And, if you miss, you'll be picking at the top of the draft again, very soon, so you'll have the chance to take another crack at it.

It's not just common sense. It's franchise smart.

 

[moosekill]

There's really no right or wrong. There's only a question of do you move up if you feel the right player is there.

In 2011, exactly a decade ago, Thomas Dimitroff called BB to ask his opinion about moving up in the draft for Julio Jones. BB advised against it because the cost was too high.

The Falcons did it anyways, they gave up five draft picks for the #6 pick and drafted Julio Jones.

Those picks were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2011 plus 1st and 4th in 2012.

Was it worth it?

Julio Jones has been a 7x pro bowler and a 2x all-pro. In hindsight the trade up was worth the cost.

Julio Jones stats: Julio Jones Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Was there any 'guarantee' that Jones would be as good as the Falcons felt he would be? Of course not, all draft selections are made upon projections, scouting, and a decision by the general manager. But it turned out to be the right move for the Falcons.

I don't see how anyone can say, it's never worth it to move up, or it's never worth it to move down. There are no absolutes. The real question is how does BB value the QBs at the top of this year's draft, and if one drops, is it worth it to move up for 'their guy'. I wouldn't be surprised or displeased if the Patriots chose to move up for a QB. But it all depends on how the draft falls and how the QBs are valued. If BB and the scouts feel that Fields or Lance are 1st round talents, I won't bat an eyelash if the Patriots give up a package to move up to #7 or #10 to draft him.

So no it wasn't worth it. The Falcons went to one superbowl and lost to the Patriots. Julio Jones is a great wide receiver, he wasn't worth what they paid to get him. With all those draft picks they could have had a much stronger team. Perhaps two more strong defensive players would have let them win the superbowl.

 

[Deus Irae]

So no it wasn't worth it. The Falcons went to one superbowl and lost to the Patriots. Julio Jones is a great wide receiver, he wasn't worth what they paid to get him. With all those draft picks they could have had a much stronger team. Perhaps two more strong defensive players would have let them win the superbowl.

 

[moosekill]

So Deuce, in your brilliant legal mind, trading basically two drafts worth of picks to get an amazing wide receiver is worth it. Gotcha, who cares about winning or losing. But wait, Is it just wide receivers, or do punters count too?

 

[Deus Irae]

So Deuce, in your brilliant legal mind, trading basically two drafts worth of picks to get an amazing wide receiver is worth it. Gotcha, who cares about winning or losing. But wait, Is it just wide receivers, or do punters count too?

You're requiring a SB win in order to fit the definition of "winning".. Are you really unaware of just how ridiculous that is? Julio Jones was drafted in 2011. Since then, how many different teams have


Been to the SB
Won the SB



And how many different starting QBs have

Been to the SB
Won the SB



And let me help you with that second pair of questions by pointing out that Tom Brady has been to 6 SBs (possible 20 slots), and won 4 of a possible 10 SBs, in that time.



Then, when you're done with that, you can explain how it's Julio Jones' fault that the Falcons choked away the SB against the Patriots.

 

[mgteich]

Can you promise me that Lance, Fields, or Jones are going to be better then Cam? That they are going to be even average starters? That is the only way I would even think about giving up what you are talking about giving up for them. Here’s the fly in the ointment, you can’t do that because it is just as possible they are a complete and utter bust. Now your point about coaching and being on a quality organization is a good one and I trust BB to develop any QB taken to be the best he can be but even BB is human and doesn’t get everything 100% right. So agreeing that coaching and development time is valuable and important why are you throwing the rookie into the fire? Why do you have your sights so set only on the top 5 who possibly could start now? Mills, trask, or monds have the physical traits that if given that time to develop could be decent starters And they cost SO much less. Plus if they do bomb moving on from them is much easier so you can try again. Do you really have faith that the Patriots will get it right the first time and draft a 10 year starter enough so that you would set the franchise back 3 years if they miss? I don’t, not because I question BB who is an A+ coach/gm who knows 10,000x what I do, but just because a real starting quality QB is so rare and even with the best information its a gamble.

Your position is that Cam is likely to be as Lance. Fields or Jones. You might try a poll.

 

[mgteich]

SF is considering Lance. They can afford to do that since they have a starter for 2021 and 2022.