What would a trade up to 7 cost

[Deus Irae]

What would a trade up to 7 cost​

Your soul

 

[ashley]

If there are two QBs sitting at #9 then let Denver take whom they want and then - and ONLY THEN - call Dallas for the #10 pick...Much MUCH cheaper to acquire...

The only issue with this Captain is what if Bill only likes one of the two qb's remaining, it would be risky not to jump Denver and potentially lose our guy.

 

[Ring 6]

Because if we trade up for Fields, Lance or even Jones, we still might not have a QB...And then we have NO draft capital to try again next year...

There won’t be better ones next year. You have to take a risk and trust your coaching staff to develop a guy with A level tools.
Next year you will be making the same argument.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

if there is a top qb sitting at #7, you have to trade up with Detroit to take him. the qb class next year is nowhere near as good.

 

[Love The Drake]

if there is a top qb sitting at #7, you have to trade up with Detroit to take him. the qb clads next year is nowhere near as good.

Do we know that Lance and Fields are better prospects than Mond or Mills I’m not sure.
This whole class has a lot of question marks making a big move and being wrong will set a franchise back a few years.
You gotta trust your scouts.
Patriot fans need to pray to cross fingers wear lucky charms whether you believe in is what we all need to collectively do.

 

[Lansdowne]

Do we know that Lance and Fields are better prospects than Mond or Mills I’m not sure.

Yes. We won’t know until later who ends up having the better careers among them. But Lance and Fields are way better prospects right now than Mond and Mills. Chris Simms is about the only talking head right now who is saying otherwise.

 

[Deus Irae]

Do we know that Lance and Fields are better prospects than Mond or Mills I’m not sure.

This is where vocabulary and semantics enter the discussion.

1. Who's "we"?
2. What's meant by "know"?
3. How are we defining "better prospects" for the purposes of the question?

Without having agreement about those things, the question is too open for interpretation.

 

[Ring 6]

Do we know that Lance and Fields are better prospects than Mond or Mills I’m not sure.
This whole class has a lot of question marks making a big move and being wrong will set a franchise back a few years.
You gotta trust your scouts.
Patriot fans need to pray to cross fingers wear lucky charms whether you believe in is what we all need to collectively do.

Of course we know they are better prospects, it’s not even close. There is no debate about that, but every player has to develop. Being a top prospect doesn’t mean you will develop it means you are more likely to, and have a higher ceiling if you do. Fields and Lances skill sets are unquestionably better than mond or mills.

 

[moosekill]

The general consensus is they are better prospects. However some draft experts disagree and have them rated higher than others. So no, we don't know they are.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Yes. We won’t know until later who ends up having the better careers among them. But Lance and Fields are way better prospects right now than Mond and Mills. Chris Simms is about the only talking head right now who is saying otherwise.

I think that is why I struggle with taking a QB in round 1 at times. BB's draft history on defensive picks in round 1 is very good. Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Chandler Jones, and Dont'a Hightower. He missed on Dominique Easley and Malcom Brown, but when BB has a high pick, he nails it. Its not really a prospect pick. Majority are very good. Think he can do the same with pick 15 this year and get a player like Horn, Parsons, or Barmore (trade down) that will be a cog in the D relatively quickly. There is way more risk in taking a prospect QB. There is also a higher reward if they get it right, but that is a big if. The other difficulty is availability. We just have no idea what QB will be available when or how much it will cost to get this prospect. Is he worth that risk? It all remains to be seen. Do we take a prospect or a more sure player with pick 1? I understand there are no guarantees.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Trade value chart:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

#7 is worth 1500 points
#15 is worth 1050 points
#46 is worth 440 points.

So #15 plus #46 for 1490 points present equal value for pick #7. Pats probably could throw in a late pick as sweetner as well. Is it worth to get what you consider a round 1 QB? If one makes it to #7, I feel like the answer is yes. But that all depends on the Patriots evaluations of the QBs and who drops to that #7 spot.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Trade value chart:

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

#7 is worth 1500 points
#15 is worth 1050 points
#46 is worth 440 points.

So #15 plus #46 for 1490 points present equal value for pick #7. Pats probably could throw in a late pick as sweetner as well. Is it worth to get what you consider a round 1 QB? If one makes it to #7, I feel like the answer is yes. But that all depends on the Patriots evaluations of the QBs and who drops to that #7 spot.

So SF traded the No.12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. What is the estimated value of this package? Is this a huge overpay according to draft charts? I wonder if we can't set a value that #7 is worth 1500 points because SF blew the curve? In the end, the value is whatever a team will accept. I have a feeling all will require overpayment and not the typical draft chart values.

 

[Love The Drake]

This is where vocabulary and semantics enter the discussion.

1. Who's "we"?
2. What's meant by "know"?
3. How are we defining "better prospects" for the purposes of the question?

Without having agreement about those things, the question is too open for interpretation.

How does fans,scouts,coaches, front offices know without a doubt they should mortgage picks to get to get Lance or Fields vs Mills or Mond?
As far as prospects I get the consensus is that they are head and tails better players according to most people. However we see this happen all the time a team picks Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilson’s drop to middle rounds, Dak Prescott. Tom Brady falls to the 6th.
My point is every QB in the is draft not named Trevor has some sort of question mark?
Wilson it’s his injury history and his leadership qualities.
How much does he love the game? Can he get players to buy in and follow him?
Fields is did he play in a gadget offense? Can he read defenses? Will his epilepsy cause issues?
Lance can he play well against top level competition?
Is he seasoned enough to be a professional? Will lack of game situations and never being challenged effect him when the game is on the line and he has to made clutch plays?
Jones does he have the arm strength? Is his release fast enough? Did playing on a stacked Alabama team pad his stats? Did the talent around him make him
look more impressive then is warranted of his skill set?
Trask can he move around in the pocket when a play breaks down? Can he get rid of the balls quick and accurately when he’s being hit? Will his limited mobility and athleticism make him a career backup or can he use his other tools to find success?
Mills? Are the head scratching plays in college him just figuring the game out? Can he be trusted with the ball when the game is on the line? Can he limit mental errors?
Mond can his skillset transfer to the NFL? He had some games with pedestrian stats is he a game manager vs a play maker? Is he a future clipboard holder? Or can he use his smarts and love for the game combined with his athleticism to make big plays in key situations? Can you win because of him?

These are my thoughts roast away

 

[Deus Irae]

How does fans,scouts,coaches, front offices know without a doubt they should mortgage picks to get to get Lance or Fields vs Mills or Mond?

It's a draft. Just as with almost everything in life beyond basic information, if you're asking for perfect knowledge as the definition of the word "know", you're going to be **** out of luck. But that'll be true of every pick, in every round, so "know" used that way is meaningless.

 

[Deus Irae]

My point is every QB in the is draft not named Trevor has some sort of question mark?

But you don't really a point, if that's your point. Again, this is a draft. It's a draft of college players, too, not currently active NFL guys being moved about in the middle of a season.

There are literally zero "known" players. And that includes Trevor.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

So SF traded the No.12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. What is the estimated value of this package? Is this a huge overpay according to draft charts? I wonder if we can't set a value that #7 is worth 1500 points because SF blew the curve? In the end, the value is whatever a team will accept. I have a feeling all will require overpayment and not the typical draft chart values.

Detroit can only "require" if there are multiple bidders. If there's only NE, then the Lions need to decide if they want the extra picks or not. I highly doubt NE will offer any future 1sts, but I agree it will take more than just a 2nd rounder.

 

[Ivan]

I think BillB and folks have written down on the trade partners and what is needed to trade up.

They now have to wait till draft day to see if the kid they are targeting has not already been taken in the top 3-4 picks...

Still hoping for - Trey Lance.

I honestly can’t say when it comes to these QB’s, so much depends upon their heads, hearts, and ability to deliver under pressure. Ironically of the 3 actually available the one I question the most is Jones, because you are using the pick on the least talented QB (Jones) , who would have to turn out to be a Brady or Manning to be worth it, and that’s very unlikely, more likely is that he becomes Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill, and although that’s a clear upgrade over the present situation I don’t know if that’s the ceiling you are looking for. Although beggars can’t be choosers I would rather have Lance or Fields in a trade up, I would be ok with Jones at #15, but I don’t want to give up more for him. If they whiff on QB’s there a few guys I would want, Paye and Horn, and a few I don’t want, e.g.. D. Smith WR, and G. Rousseau, but other than that I really like the talent available to them at #15,

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Of course we know they are better prospects, it’s not even close. There is no debate about that, but every player has to develop. Being a top prospect doesn’t mean you will develop it means you are more likely to, and have a higher ceiling if you do. Fields and Lances skill sets are unquestionably better than mond or mills.

No WE don't. Lance played like 12 games against kids that will be flipping burgers and selling insurance next year.

 

[Sciz]

So SF traded the No.12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. What is the estimated value of this package? Is this a huge overpay according to draft charts? I wonder if we can't set a value that #7 is worth 1500 points because SF blew the curve? In the end, the value is whatever a team will accept. I have a feeling all will require overpayment and not the typical draft chart values.

...it's complicated.

Let's assume the 2022 and 2023 first round picks will both be 24th overall, and that the 2022 3rd will be 99 (the current projection). I will also devalue the 2022 picks by 32 picks (one round, ignoring comp picks) and the 2023 pick by 48 picks (a round and a half). That's now 2021 pick 3 for 2021 pick 12 and value equivalent to 2021 picks 56, 72, and 131.

On the Rich Hill chart, that's 514 points for pick 3 and 532 for the four picks going the other direction. The net loss of 18 points is about pick 135. The chart basically says to leave out the 2022 3rd to even things out. Now there are a whole lot of different assumptions, mainly where in the round the future firsts will end up and how much to devalue the 2023 first rounder. But I've currently got it in the ballpark.

 

[ralmat55]

During the first week of free agency, a rumor was circulating and was posted here that the Patriots and Cowboys were discussing a trade where the Cowboys would trade#10 overall and Michael Gallop to the Patriots for #15 and Stephon Gilmore.

Who knows if there was anything to the rumor. It does make sense for both teams if you ask me, and I believe Gilmore has a lot more value than many of you think especially to a team like Dallas that wants to win NOW. But, getting to 10 at the cost of Gilmore and 15 while getting a useful WR would make it a whole lot easier to get to 7 if Fields was still be in the board.

The Pats 2nd pick plus 10 should be able to beat other offers Detroit might receive for 7. it would be like getting Fields for Gilmore and #15 and Gallop with our 2nd rounder. The Pats could sign Richard Sherman and resign Jason McCourty to make an effort to replace Gilmore.