2021 NFL Free Agency/Trade News & Discussion: March Edition

[patfanken]

All of this neglects the extensions and restructures that'll free up space for these teams.

True to a certain extent. A lot of teams try and avoid this tactic because space you relieve today will only be added on down the road. It doesn't just disappear. So while it IS something teams can do to create added space but its a limited devise that will not necessarily change the landscape that I set out. will it change it MARGINALLY, of course. The cap chart we are taking that off of will be in constant movement right up to the day before the season starts next September. So NON of this is set in stone. And certainly not right now

 

[patfanken]

We need Miguel to again tell us how much we need (net) for rookies, for camp replacements, midseason replacements, and Player 52 an 53. Last I heard, the TOTAL was about $10M, not $16M. Also, when the final roster is set, there is an automatic "bonus" as rookies replace vets that are in the top 53.

I would guess more than 10 and less than 16. But where ever it lands it doesn't significantly change the current landscape. A lot can change from this point right up to the day before the season ends, but the basic parameters are set right now and it still looks to be a large FA market with fewer buyers than usual and that bodes well for the buyers and poorly for those FA's looking for 10+MM/yr contracts

 

[patfanken]

This certainly is a special opportunity for NE but better hold your horses

1. When accounting Cap Space remember TOP 51 rule. Pats rookies would cost c. 9M if keeping current picks but count only c.2M against the cap.
2. Most of the time teams go with much less than 10M cap space into the season; most teams can create plenty of room on the fly w restructures etc.
3. Many players on high cap numbers will be released either before march 17 or after to create considerable chunks of cap space.
4. Most teams will push contracts far into the future to be players at this market. Saints just used FT on their safety 10.5M immediate add cap that cannot be restructured despite still being in cap hell and consider themselves moderate players at FA market as well.
5. So Patriots will be competing with all teams but will be in better position than most
6. I don't expect BBs economic approach to FA would really change - so expect him to stay true to the “value“ approach.
There should be more and better “value“ on the market this year - this is true..

Listen LD, I understand that teams can do a number of things to create cap space. I mean the Cowboys just signed a guy to a $40MM/yr contract and yet still created 15MM in space. So sh!t like that DOES happen (though eventually bill always comes due). But the fact remains as I have mentioned before, the basic landscape has been set. And subject to the limited adjustments that teams will continue to make right up to the start of the first game, this WILL be a buyers market, with a much larger demand that the market can accommodate.

But I do very much agree with you that this isn't really going to change the way Bill is going to view FA. I've said before, Bill will take this opportunity to continue to build this team from the middle down. Increasing the quality of the depth and filling current holes with quality players with on good deals for the Pats. I think he'd be happy to improve the team with this years acquisitions and carry over a significant amount of that cap space into next year where income from full stadiums and the new media deals will add another 20-30MM to the cap number.

Then NEXT year Bill will have the cap space to make MAJOR deals when he has a better team, a better idea about his QB situation, AND fewer holes to fill. It will be next off season where Bill can make moves that will change the team from a playoff contender to a superbowl contender.

 

[50-yard-line]

True to a certain extent. A lot of teams try and avoid this tactic because space you relieve today will only be added on down the road. It doesn't just disappear. So while it IS something teams can do to create added space but its a limited devise that will not necessarily change the landscape that I set out. will it change it MARGINALLY, of course. The cap chart we are taking that off of will be in constant movement right up to the day before the season starts next September. So NON of this is set in stone. And certainly not right now

Those extensions also make it harder to backload FA signings, unless the teams are okay with Saints'-level cap hell.

 

[Ring 6]

Those extensions also make it harder to backload FA signings, unless the teams are okay with Saints'-level cap hell.

Another consideration is that most teams cap plan longer into the future than 1 year. So teams with cap issues now also have cap issues in future years because they have already been down that road in previous years.

 

[long distance]

tackle market bulking up.

 

[slifersd]

Man, if you are over 30 in the NFL, this is a bad offseason for you. All these talented players who are on the wrong side of 30 getting cut left and right as cap casualties.

 

[Ross12]

Man, if you are over 30 in the NFL, this is a bad offseason for you. All these talented players who are on the wrong side of 30 getting cut left and right as cap casualties.

Thinking a lot of rookies will be drafted and starting same year this year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Thinking a lot of rookies will be drafted and starting same year this year.

Related notes: It would be interesting, if, at some point this summer or in early fall, someone were to take a survey of all the older vets who retire this year, and include a question about how many of them just decided it wasn't worth the time/effort to relocate for a year's minimum salary.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's a coaching note, but shout out to Romeo:

Romeo Crennel is no longer serving as the head coach of the Texans, but he will be part of the organization in 2021.


The team announced on Wednesday that Crennel will serve as senior advisor for football performance.

Texans announce coaching staff, Romeo Crennel as senior advisor

 

[long distance]

Then NEXT year Bill will have the cap space to make MAJOR deals when he has a better team, a better idea about his QB situation, AND fewer holes to fill. It will be next off season where Bill can make moves that will change the team from a playoff contender to a superbowl contender.

It could go both ways but i don't think BB is making this a strategy. As mentioned many times Pats are in very good cap position this yr but they are by far #1 in effective cap space next year. So i don't think BB will think about the carryover or artificial concepts like “playoff contender“ “superbowl contender“. As always it should be about making the most of situation, opportunities. If this ends up being spending most of the cap or having a bulk left is secondary. As i see it he goes by a value perspective (all aspects included like comp picks formula etc) not too worried about (but very aware of) cap perspective.

From opportunities standpoint this will be the best market he will ever see. Like you mentioned this will be buyers market, almost garage sale after top FAs are grabbed. So it makes sense to make the most of this opportunity.

The big Q is how will players/managers play this situation. GMs would love to sign players on long term deals in this market but many managers will push for shorter or even 1y deals to wait for better market coming.

One reason teams are willing to unload big chunks of cap to 2023 and after is bc they have some insider informations/estimations re how much the cap will grow after new tv deals and the expectation for 2023 is significantly. In this situation pushing cap forward is both necessity and opportunity, always a bit of a gamble but obviously one most feel ok about. GMs that prided themselves in cap discipline to the point they did not even use prorated signing bonuses are now doing it. So GMs will easily do it as long as owners will be signing the extra checks - bc pushing cap forward costs a lot of real $..

 

[Ring 6]

It could go both ways but i don't think BB is making this a strategy. As mentioned many times Pats are in very good cap position this yr but they are by far #1 in effective cap space next year. So i don't think BB will think about the carryover or artificial concepts like “playoff contender“ “superbowl contender“. As always it should be about making the most of situation, opportunities. If this ends up being spending most of the cap or having a bulk left is secondary. As i see it he goes by a value perspective (all aspects included like comp picks formula etc) not too worried about (but very aware of) cap perspective.

From opportunities standpoint this will be the best market he will ever see. Like you mentioned this will be buyers market, almost garage sale after top FAs are grabbed. So it makes sense to make the most of this opportunity.

The big Q is how will players managers play this situation. GMs would love to sign players on long term deals in this market but many managers will push for shorter or even 1y deals to wait for much better market coming.

One reason the teams are willing to unload big chunks of cap to 2023 and after is bc they have some insider informations/estimations re how much the cap will grow after new tv deals and the expectation for 2023 is significantly. In this situation pushing cap forward is both necessity and opportunity, always a bit of a gamble but obviously one most feel ok about. GMs that prided themselves in cap discipline to the point they did not even use prorated signing bonuses are now doing it. So GMs will easily do it as long as owners will be signing the extra checks - bc pushing cap forward costs a lot of real $..

Next years cap space will be affected by this years signings. The first year hits this year become 2nd year hits next year.
This is a one shot deal to get it right. The cap space is here today, you have to get it right today.

 

[gobesmug]

Makes no sense to me but OK

I thought Brady was not a factor in the comp pick formula because he was technically cut. His last year was an option declined.

 

[Ross12]

Next years cap space will be affected by this years signings. The first year hits this year become 2nd year hits next year.
This is a one shot deal to get it right. The cap space is here today, you have to get it right today.

They're #1 next year by a good margin too, though. Like $30m more effective cap space than the fourth-highest team. So they can be "spenders" this year and still be at or near the top in cap space next year. They are also #1 in effective space 2 years from now, though not by as much.

 

[Sciz]

I thought Brady was not a factor in the comp pick formula because he was technically cut. His last year was an option declined.

Voids still qualify. They're different from options in that the team doesn't have the ability to accept or decline the continuation of the contract. It just automatically ends whether they want it to or not.

 

[Rob0729]

I thought Brady was not a factor in the comp pick formula because he was technically cut. His last year was an option declined.

He wasn't cut. His contract was automatically voided after the 2019 season. All it was an creative accounting measure to spread his cap hit over multiple years. The contract also said he couldn't be tagged either. That is because he wasn't cut and he could have been franchised if not for that provision in the deal.

Brady really only agreed to take more money up front in 2019 to help the Pats to spread out his cap hit.

 

[AlexB]

I thought Brady was not a factor in the comp pick formula because he was technically cut. His last year was an option declined.

He didn't have a declined option, but even if he did, he would still count in the formula.

 

[long distance]

Everyone wants to be a player next week - at least to some extent





...

 

[ashley]

The cuts keep coming:

 

[Ross12]

I'll be honest, I would love a move for John Brown... especially since he doesn't "count" against the comp formula... you could sign TY Hilton, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Kyle Rudolph, and only Hilton's contract would count.