2021 NFL Free Agency/Trade News & Discussion: March Edition

[Ross12]

The Harry trade is possibly less about him being good and more about cap-strapped teams wanting a guy with potential upside who is still cheap. I think he'd only hit another team's cap for like... $80k this year and $1.8m next year.

 

[Ross12]

List of comp picks. Pats get #96 (the highest overall comp pick) and #140. I think most expected them to get a 3rd and two 4ths but they only got one of each.

 

[Deus Irae]

Which will be every year with Murray.

That's irrelevant to your argument about the Cardinals. I agree that running QBs are all major injuries just waiting to happen. But, until they happen, the teams are the teams. And the Cardinals are a good (not great, but good) and improving offensive team that just beefed up its pass rush, and will likely address its defensive back end weakness in the draft.

 

[venecol]

consider this, Every team needs 5-8MM to sign their rookies. Also teams like to have around 10MM in space to make midseason moves due to opportunity to improve or injuries. So while its nice to say we have $68MM in cap space, the reality of it is the "EFFECTIVE number is closer to $52MM. And if you take that $14-18MM teams need to sign their draft picks and have some room to make mid season moves, the number tof teams with space enough to be factors in FA is severely limited

Based on this chart there are fully 20 teams will have less than $20MM in cap space. Almost by definition that means there are 20 teams who are essentially OUT of the FA market for much more than minimum value FA's. Then there is another 5 teams who look like they would have $10-15MM in EFFECTIVE space and 2 more who have $15-20MM in effective room,

That means that with the biggest raft of quality FA's in many many years (perhaps ever) the Pats will be competing with only 4 other teams (Jags, Jets, Colts and Bengals) for those FA's who would be looking for contracts that start at $10MM. (Washington and Denver can also afford one $10+MM contact)

I see this as an amazing opportunity for the Pats, and are REALLY bad year for FA's. If you are a FA and DON'T get signed in the first few days of FA, the chances of you getting the contract you THOUGHT you were going to get are going to drop precipitously. So for Pats fans, and BB, I suggest PATIENCE will end up being their best friend. AND I think most of the teams with money to spend will also be thinking this way

All of this neglects the extensions and restructures that'll free up space for these teams.

 

[DaBruinz]

List of comp picks. Pats get #96 (the highest overall comp pick) and #140.

Looks to me like the Patriots got screwed. I only counted 2 comp picks. They should have had 4..

Brady, Collins, Van Noy, Karras.

 

[venecol]

List of comp picks. Pats get #96 (the highest overall comp pick) and #140. I think most expected them to get a 3rd and two 4ths but they only got one of each.

GOD D*MN YOU GOODELL, YOU POS.

 

[Sciz]

Looks to me like the Patriots got screwed. I only counted 2 comp picks. They should have had 4..

Brady, Collins, Van Noy, Karras.

The Karras pick was always far from guaranteed. The missing 4th is a complete mystery even to Korte, though.

 

[DW Toys]

Harry is important (or at least very useful) part of the dominant running game that is likely to be the focus of 2021 NE offence.
Is that enough to keep him on the roster? idk But i dont see BB in any need to “run“ from him. There is zero cap gain if he is traded now,
1.4M if traded after June 1 so compensation would matter..

Good post Cousin.
DW Toys

 

[Scotty]

What happened ?.....I thought we were due 3 picks ?

 

[Ross12]

 

[long distance]

consider this, Every team needs 5-8MM to sign their rookies. Also teams like to have around 10MM in space to make midseason moves due to opportunity to improve or injuries. So while its nice to say we have $68MM in cap space, the reality of it is the "EFFECTIVE number is closer to $52MM. And if you take that $14-18MM teams need to sign their draft picks and have some room to make mid season moves, the number tof teams with space enough to be factors in FA is severely limited

Based on this chart there are fully 20 teams will have less than $20MM in cap space. Almost by definition that means there are 20 teams who are essentially OUT of the FA market for much more than minimum value FA's. Then there is another 5 teams who look like they would have $10-15MM in EFFECTIVE space and 2 more who have $15-20MM in effective room,

That means that with the biggest raft of quality FA's in many many years (perhaps ever) the Pats will be competing with only 4 other teams (Jags, Jets, Colts and Bengals) for those FA's who would be looking for contracts that start at $10MM. (Washington and Denver can also afford one $10+MM contact)

I see this as an amazing opportunity for the Pats, and are REALLY bad year for FA's. If you are a FA and DON'T get signed in the first few days of FA, the chances of you getting the contract you THOUGHT you were going to get are going to drop precipitously. So for Pats fans, and BB, I suggest PATIENCE will end up being their best friend. AND I think most of the teams with money to spend will also be thinking this way

This certainly is a special opportunity for NE but better hold your horses

1. When accounting Cap Space remember TOP 51 rule. Pats rookies would cost c. 9M if keeping current picks but count only c.2M against the cap.
2. Most of the time teams go with much less than 10M cap space into the season; most teams can create plenty of room on the fly w restructures etc.
3. Many players on high cap numbers will be released either before march 17 or after to create considerable chunks of cap space.
4. Most teams will push contracts far into the future to be players at this market. Saints just used FT on their safety 10.5M immediate add cap that cannot be restructured despite still being in cap hell and consider themselves moderate players at FA market as well.
5. So Patriots will be competing with all teams but will be in better position than most
6. I don't expect BBs economic approach to FA would really change - so expect him to stay true to the “value“ approach.
There should be more and better “value“ on the market this year - this is true..

 

[DaBruinz]

The Karras pick was always far from guaranteed. The missing 4th is a complete mystery even to Korte, though.

Karras signed for $3M. How is that "far from guaranteed" when 7th rounders are going for 1.5M or so?
Also, I forgot about Shelton who signed for for an APY of $4M..

The Patriots didn't sign anyone who would have been eligible in the Comp Formula.

 

[Ross12]

Makes no sense to me but OK

 

[DaBruinz]

1st tweet isn't available..

 

[Sciz]

Karras signed for $3M. How is that "far from guaranteed" when 7th rounders are going for 1.5M or so?
Also, I forgot about Shelton who signed for for an APY of $4M..

The Patriots didn't sign anyone who would have been eligible in the Comp Formula.

There are no 7ths this year. The 32-pick limit was reached while still in the 6th round values.

 

[venecol]

GOD D*MN YOU GOODELL, YOU POS

 

[DaBruinz]

Makes no sense to me but OK

WOW.. Totaly f'ed over. Byrd's contract shouldn't have been eligible. Neither should Beau Allen's since he was on IR all year. They've never counted the contract of someone on IR before.

How can they subtract Ebner's ($2M) and Roberts ($2M) but keep Byrd ($1.5M)??

 

[Ross12]

 

[DaBruinz]

There are no 7ths this year. The 32-pick limit was reached while still in the 6th round values.

And yet they removed two eligible players from the Pats list in Roberts and Ebner (both had $2m APY contracts) while keeping Byrd (1.5M)

Like I said.. They screwed over the Patriots.

 

[Ring 6]

teams are NOT the same as last year. However, I don't accept that the patriots are now in the same category as the colts and cards. And why? We also will lose players. The answer is that we are in the same category because we are on a patriots message board.

No we are in the same category because none of those teams are fully built and the one that did make the playoffs has major uncertainty at qb.
Are you honestly telling me a free agent with offers from New England, Indy and Arizona is going to dismiss NE and Arizona and sign with Indy because they are a contender?
Are you not aware of the rate of turnover of playoff teams from year to year? A one time playoff team who lost its qb is not a “winning destination”???