Cowboys Dak sign deal

[Ring 6]

Feels like another domino falling. The top free agent QB is off the market so those in the mix for a QB may start upping their trade offers a little more to get some moves done. 49ers will trade for Darnold or Bridgewater and then trade Garoppolo to NE. (That's how I see it in my head anyway)

There was never any chance Prescott was on the market. This domino was already fallen.

 

[Ross12]

There was never any chance Prescott was on the market. This domino was already fallen.

Yeah it was very doubtful, but still, the fact he is officially signed could spur some sort of action.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

How much will josh allen asked for? I would take him over prescott. Bills will have to pony up. No discounts.

 

[Zarozzor]

40 million for Prescott

Some of the contracts on that team are unbelievable.

 

[BobDigital]

Before you can get a "fair" assessment of QB value, you first have to choose the measurable standard. So who gets pegged for the model of fair value?

There is no way for me to break this down mathematically without getting long winded. So I'll just give you my answer without anything to back it up.

If the goal is complete parody (every team having a nearly fair chance to beat every other team) then the answer is not a set amount but a % of the cap.

There is good evidence to assume that the difference between the absolute best QBs and top tier back ups/worst starting QBs is about 4-5 games. It can be a lot more with a bad enough back up, but you can't look at it that way. We need to assume things slotted perfectly in a perfect world.

So if you have a Brady/Manning/Mahomes/Rodgers level guy they are worth 4 wins. Maybe even a hair more in their really good years. By this logic it follows they should be worth 25% of the salary cap if you want to totally offset their value. No one tends to pay them that much though. And that's why QBs like these win more than they lose even with massive contracts. They are that valuable.

Clearly Dak is not one of those guys. But he isn't a low end starter/back up. I put him right in the middle of those camps or maybe a hair over. So let's say Dak should be worth 13-14% of the cap. Assuming a 200 million average over the next 4 years that puts him at 26-28m. But that is only if your looking to break even. If you want a chance to win a super bowl it should be less. More like 20m. That way you can give him the help he needs.

 

[Uptown]

Awful deal, I thought Jerry was smart

That’s the problem; he’s just smart...not wicked smaht

 

[Joker]

If the goal is complete parody then the answer is not a set amount but a % of the cap.



"parody"? you're calling the league a parody now,Bob Digital?m I agree, Goondell is a parody of a Vince McMahon perhaps but the league seems OK at the moment...unless they resort to flags and skirts in which case it would certainly become a complete parody

 

[borg]

There is good evidence to assume that the difference between the absolute best QBs and top tier back ups/worst starting QBs is about 4-5 games. It can be a lot more with a bad enough back up, but you can't look at it that way.

So......
Without Watson in Texas this past season, Houston was looking at a record of -1 and 17 ?

 

[Triumph]

Cowboys fans are happy about this news. Jerry the GM has them drinking his koolaid.

Why dont they see that Dak is never going to deliver a trophy? He has had top notch players at every offensive position and failed. Jerry has them fans believing that it was all Garrets fault. Soon, they will be blaming Mcarthy too.

 

[RIpats88]

Can someone explain to me why Dallas is paying Dak $40m/year while the 49ers are trying to dump JimmyG?

Looking at 2017-2019 Cowboys. They had an average-to-good defense and an elite running back. Shouldn't they have been able to manage more than 10 wins with a quarterback worth $40m?

They will regret the deal in a couple years when they are mediocre because they are spending their cap on 3 players.

Dak will complain like russell wilson and Desaun watson that there isn't enough talent around them, ignoring the fact they scrounged for every penny and that's part of the reason the team can't afford talent around them

 

[BobDigital]

So......
Without Watson in Texas this past season, Houston was looking at a record of -1 and 17 ?

There is a lot of hype about Watson. I don't agree he is one of 'those guys'. Also there is a degree of variance that comes down to chance. While I use this 4 to potentially 5 game mark, it also has diminishing returns on both ends. If you have a team that was 12-4 with a bad QB, getting them a really good or even great QB shouldn't make them 16-0. Just like if your team is really bad with a great QB and went 4-12, getting a JAG shouldn't automatically make you 0-16. It is hard to do either of those things. The easiest gains and losses to be made record rise have always been between 4-12 to 12-4 Once you start to go above or below that, it gets harder to go in either direction.

The fact Watson went 4-12 shows just how bad the Texans were, and also shows his play was a bit overrated last year, as he is. It also shows he just got unlucky.

Generally here is how I see QB value

Upper end HOF QBs 4-5 games Brady/Mahomes (arguably top 10 all time kind of guys)
lower end HOF QBs/borderline 3-4 games Kelly/Moon or Phillip Rivers
Really good QBs 2-3 games (Watson is the upper end of here)
good QBs 2 games (Stafford/Ryan,Mayfield)
serviceable starting QB 1 game (Goff/Trubisky)
bottom tier starter/high tier back up 0 games (Dilfer)

 

[RIpats88]

At $40million, dak better be Aaron rodgers or Mahomes. But he's closer to a kirk cousins who btw has similar stats.

 

[PP2]

Awful deal, I thought Jerry was smart

Wherever on earth did you get the idea that Jerruh was ever smart?

 

[sean10mm]

Wherever on earth did you get the idea that Jerruh was ever smart?

Yeah, he's been sucking it for longer than Brady has been winning titles lol

The problem with this deal is that the Cowboys tried to play hardball with Prescott for 2+ years... and then folded at the end, giving up more than his agent ever dreamed of asking for at the start of the negotiations.

Like if they just gave him what he wanted on the day the CBA allowed him to get a new deal it would have been seen as a huge bargain in retrospect. But instead there have been like 2 waves of insane QB contract inflation and they couldn't afford to tag him a second time without creating major roster problems (eating $37.7m at once instead of being able to game the cap with the new contract) so they surrendered on everything, including no-trade and no-tag clauses.

 

[borg]

There is a lot of hype about Watson. I don't agree he is one of 'those guys'. Also there is a degree of variance that comes down to chance. While I use this 4 to potentially 5 game mark, it also has diminishing returns on both ends. If you have a team that was 12-4 with a bad QB, getting them a really good or even great QB shouldn't make them 16-0. Just like if your team is really bad with a great QB and went 4-12, getting a JAG shouldn't automatically make you 0-16. It is hard to do either of those things. The easiest gains and losses to be made record rise have always been between 4-12 to 12-4 Once you start to go above or below that, it gets harder to go in either direction.

The fact Watson went 4-12 shows just how bad the Texans were, and also shows his play was a bit overrated last year, as he is. It also shows he just got unlucky.

Generally here is how I see QB value

Upper end HOF QBs 4-5 games Brady/Mahomes (arguably top 10 all time kind of guys)
lower end HOF QBs/borderline 3-4 games Kelly/Moon or Phillip Rivers
Really good QBs 2-3 games (Watson is the upper end of here)
good QBs 2 games (Stafford/Ryan,Mayfield)
serviceable starting QB 1 game (Goff/Trubisky)
bottom tier starter/high tier back up 0 games (Dilfer)

Does your QB/ Team Wins simulator factor in the other 52 players on each team?

The Bucs did happen to complement their homegrown fleet of offensive weaponry with a host of new offensive studs to assist Brady/Tampa in their +4 win gain year over year.
All Pro TE
All Pro WR
#4 draft pick RB
All Pro RB (limited by injury)
1st rd Tackle

+4 Brady did get Tampa +2 pts/gm year over year

The unmentioned Tampa D which apparently has no statistical relevance in your simulator limited opponents by 6 pts/gm year over year.
--------------------------------
My hypothesis:
Brady is a +4 recruiter

 

[scout]

Wherever on earth did you get the idea that Jerruh was ever smart?

Jerry is smart, but not as a football GM. He built a state of the art stadium in Arlington and a 91 acre practice facility in Frisco. Both are profitable.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Another (not) brilliant move by Jerry.

 

[PP2]

Jerry is smart, but not as a football GM. He built a state of the art stadium in Arlington and a 91 acre practice facility in Frisco. Both are profitable.

Based on the things that come out of his mouth, in general, I would wager against that. Of all the businesses he's tried to found that went belly up, only Jones Oil Land and Lease has been a success. Lucky for him it was a staggering success and he's been feeding off it ever since.

 

[scout]

Based on the things that come out of his mouth, in general, I would wager against that. Of all the businesses he's tried to found that went belly up, only Jones Oil Land and Lease has been a success. Lucky for him it was a staggering success and he's been feeding off it ever since.

There is no doubt Jerry is a doofus. I think the Cowboys would have won 3 Super Bowls in a row if Jerry kept his mouth shut. Ask people who were charging people to park in their yards on game days if Jerry is financially smart (Jerry got a piece of the action). One of the hottest pieces of real estate is the along the Dallas tollway. Jerry built a 91 acre facility on the tollway. I would take his financial empire.

 

[Nehalem]

Because Dak wasn’t the problem with the Cowboys and Jimmy was considered the weak link on the Niners. Someone else would have given Dak that deal. The Cowboys just decided not to suck without their franchise QB.

Then what was the weak link on the Cowboys?

good defense, elite running back. Not lacking in offensive weapons.

How did they average only 9 wins over 2017-2019?

All thats left is Quarterback.

I really don't see how Dak Prescott is any better than JimmyG.