OT: Official 2020 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

[Tony2046]

The more I look at it, it seems the only games that are “difficult” right now are the Bills and Rams. Obviously you never know with divisional games but they should go 5-1 minimum against the division.

I could see a 14-2/15-1 season depending on their FA and good health.

Health and the timing of the health issues seem to be always a major player.

Look at the last season. The timing of Vea's return from the IR couldn't have been more perfect.

Evans and Godwin's injuries were at the beginning of the season.

The whole team seemed relatively healthy during the playoff run.

KC lost half of it's Oline.

 

[PP2]

ESPN did an analytics breakdown of the rookies drafted by each team. Here are 2:

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers​

Why they're ranked here: The Bucs hit home runs with offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs (No. 13 overall) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (45th overall). Wirfs put up historically good numbers in pass protection, and Winfield finished the regular season as one of the five most valuable rookies from the 2020 class, per PFF WAR.

How their top pick fared: Wirfs wasn't just the best rookie tackle from the 2020 class; he was among the best we have ever seen in the PFF era. The former Iowa Hawkeye led all right tackles in pass-block grade and finished No. 2 among all rookie right tackles in that metric since 2006 (Marshal Yanda, 2007, is No. 1).

Best value pick: Landing Winfield in the middle of Round 2 is the true definition of getting value. He provided a productive presence as a blitzer in Todd Bowles' defense with nine pressures on 58 rushes -- two of which were strip sacks -- and he was among the best at his position against the run. Winfield finished the regular season with the second-highest run-defense grade at his position.

Bucs hit a home run with Winfield Jr.

Unbelievable that Winfield Jr. and White are both only 22.

 

[RicoG]

So these are the Bucs big free agents:

Ndamukong Suh
Shaq Barrett
Lavonte David
Ryan Succop
Chris Godwin
Rob Gronkowski
Antonio Brown
Leonard Fournette

Which ones are staying and which ones are going?

The ones sure to stay are Gronk, Suh, Succop, and David.

Barrett: Bucs will make a competitive offer but he will leave for the most money and guarantees as he wants to break the bank.

Godwin: Barrett leaving means money for Godwin. They will franchise tag him.

Brown: Godwin staying means a low ball offer for Brown. He will leave for more money.

Fournette: He would have to share the load with Rojo and get paid accordingly. Fournette wants to be the bell cow and get paid top 5 RB money. He will leave as a contending team will offer him top money.

Brown and Fournette leaving could open the door for 1 of Edelman, Amendola, White, or Burkhead to join.

Shaq leaving opens the door for Jj Watt or Von Miller coming in.

 

[1960Pats]

Quarterbacks tend to improve in the 2nd year of Bruce Arians system. Even more important this time since Brady will have a full off-season.

I'm stoked for next season. Assuming good health, I think we'll see some fireworks.

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Obviously preseason SOS usually never works out, but at first glance that's a really weak schedule.

Every year it seems like the same teams make the playoffs for the most part with occasional exceptions. This year Bal, Buf, GB, KC, NO, TB, Pit, Sea, Ten, Indy and the Rams will probably be in the hunt. Cleveland could be but last year was more a result of them playing the NFCE for 4 games, otherwise Miami, who faced a tougher NFCW, would have made the playoffs instead.

Then we have the little sisters of the poor like Atl, Car, Cin, Den, Det, Hou, Jac, NYG, NYJ, Philly and Was. I'd put Dallas in there too but they might be okay if they get their QB back.

The rest, Chi, Min, SF, Ariz, LV, LAC and NE (I hope) will be on the bubble.

Last year many of us accurately predicted the playoff teams by week #3 and the only difference was the seeding. We could probably come up with one now and not be that far off.

Fraudger Goodell's main goal was to produce parity in the NYFL, and like all former Jets' on Park Ave he has failed miserably.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is a great read...all about the Bucs gameplan and defensive effort in the SB. If it asks for a subscription, Private View browser mode will work.

Bowles’s Super Bowl Game Plan, Watt’s Departure and Texans Mess, Trevor Lawrence as Advertised

Plus, why Wentz trade must happen soon, why Derek Carr trade probably isn’t happening at all, the Patriots’ steeper hill luring free agents, more suitors for Darnold, what Russell Wilson’s criticism of the Seahawks means, and much more.

www.si.com

 

[Deus Irae]

Every year it seems like the same teams make the playoffs for the most part with occasional exceptions. This year Bal, Buf, GB, KC, NO, TB, Pit, Sea, Ten, Indy and the Rams will probably be in the hunt. Cleveland could be but last year was more a result of them playing the NFCE for 4 games, otherwise Miami, who faced a tougher NFCW, would have made the playoffs instead.

Then we have the little sisters of the poor like Atl, Car, Cin, Den, Det, Hou, Jac, NYG, NYJ, Philly and Was. I'd put Dallas in there too but they might be okay if they get their QB back.

The rest, Chi, Min, SF, Ariz, LV, LAC and NE (I hope) will be on the bubble.

Last year many of us accurately predicted the playoff teams by week #3 and the only difference was the seeding. We could probably come up with one now and not be that far off.

Fraudger Goodell's main goal was to produce parity in the NYFL, and like all former Jets' on Park Ave he has failed miserably.

Just for the fun of looking at how things line up, let's do an exercise:


List your personal choices for the top 12 quarterbacks in the NFL, with the bottom 6 in order. With the likely retirements, the declines, and the one year wonders, I actually find this difficult to do.

 

[Deus Irae]

Top 4 QBs

Brady
Rodgers
Mahomes
Wilson


All are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, as long as they stay healthy.

 

[venecol]

So these are the Bucs big free agents:

Ndamukong Suh
Shaq Barrett
Lavonte David
Ryan Succop
Chris Godwin
Rob Gronkowski
Antonio Brown
Leonard Fournette

Which ones are staying and which ones are going?

The ones sure to stay are Gronk, Suh, Succop, and David.

Barrett: Bucs will make a competitive offer but he will leave for the most money and guarantees as he wants to break the bank.

Godwin: Barrett leaving means money for Godwin. They will franchise tag him.

Brown: Godwin staying means a low ball offer for Brown. He will leave for more money.

Fournette: He would have to share the load with Rojo and get paid accordingly. Fournette wants to be the bell cow and get paid top 5 RB money. He will leave as a contending team will offer him top money.

Brown and Fournette leaving could open the door for 1 of Edelman, Amendola, White, or Burkhead to join.

Shaq leaving opens the door for Jj Watt or Von Miller coming in.

There's so many FAs in the WR (50), RB (40), and Edge (70) categories that the market will probably be somewhat lower than in a normal year. Yet, Godwin, Barrett, and even Fournette are at the top of those lists. Brady getting his teammates paid again with a SB win.

Wide Receivers:


Running Backs:


Edge Rushers:

 

[sb1]

Question- do you want the Bucs to repeat?

In the short term the answer is easy- no because I want my Pats to win it all.

If the Pats are eliminated in 2021 when the Bucs are still playing - then what? I’m torn. I love watching him play and win. It would be a real tasty cherry on top of Brady’s career. Or a giant turd for haters to have to swallow. But if that happens- regardless of what he says publicly I think he will seriously consider calling it a wrap. He’s at the end of his 2 year deal. He has nothing more to prove. Going out like that is what a champion deserves and if anyone deserves that kind of moment it’s the GOAT.

And obviously it will always be nice to say we are the last team to repeat anyway. Lol.

 

[venecol]

Bill is in somewhat of a predicament. If he goes aggressive and spends big on elite FAs, yet the team performs poorly again, his coaching will be in question. If he goes for mid-tier guys and performs poorly, both his coaching and GM skills will be in question.

Obviously, if the team performs better (making playoffs and not being 1 and done), it'll be looked as a win. Winning solves all his problems. Solving the QB conundrum is the main hurdle. Good luck with that.

He should focus on putting out a team that only allows 16-18 pts per game. Imo this would be a step in the right direction and be closer to just needing a QB to be a contender.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just for the fun of looking at how things line up, let's do an exercise:


List your personal choices for the top 12 quarterbacks in the NFL, with the bottom 6 in order. With the likely retirements, the declines, and the one year wonders, I actually find this difficult to do.

Tier 1 - Makes everyone better
1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Rodgers
4. Wilson
But we do have some concerns sub-tier
5. Watson
Tier 2 - Championship capable with the right support
6. Prescott
7. Ryan
8. Allen
9. Jackson
10. Carr
Boom or Bust: Kyler Murray sub-tier
11. Murray
Tier 3 - Solid but doesn’t inspire championship confidence
12. Stafford
13. Tannehill
14. Garoppolo
15. Mayfield
16. Cousins
Tier 4 - Big Question Mark
17. Wentz
18. Roethlisberger
19. Goff
Tier 5 - Should No Longer Start
20. Bridgewater
21. Trubisky
22. Smith
23. Minshew
24. Jones
25. Lock
26. Darnold

Too Soon To Tell
Burrow
Herbert
Tagovailoa
Hurts

Unknown Situations
Patriots QB (Stidham? Newton?)
Saints QB (Brees return possible but unlikely. Winston? Hill?)

 

[Deus Irae]

Tier 1 - Makes everyone better
1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Rodgers
4. Wilson
But we do have some concerns sub-tier
5. Watson
Tier 2 - Championship capable with the right support
6. Prescott
7. Ryan
8. Allen
9. Jackson
10. Carr
Boom or Bust: Kyler Murray sub-tier
11. Murray
Tier 3 - Solid but doesn’t inspire championship confidence
12. Stafford
13. Tannehill
14. Garoppolo
15. Mayfield
16. Cousins
Tier 4 - Big Question Mark
17. Wentz
18. Roethlisberger
19. Goff
Tier 5 - Should No Longer Start
20. Bridgewater
21. Trubisky
22. Smith
23. Minshew
24. Jones
25. Lock
26. Darnold

Too Soon To Tell
Burrow
Herbert
Tagovailoa
Hurts

Unknown Situations
Patriots QB (Stidham? Newton?)
Saints QB (Brees return possible but unlikely. Winston? Hill?)

It's obvious that we're in a QB transition period. But, even saying that, it's wild to me to look at that QB list and realize that there are only 4 QBs I'm willing to guarantee are good enough to get their teams to the playoffs barring injury. Literally none of the QBs outside of the top 4 give me that feeling of confidence. Heck, I'm not even 100% on Wilson, though it's close enough to that for this exercise.

 

[1960Pats]

Top 4 QBs

Brady
Rodgers
Mahomes
Wilson


All are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, as long as they stay healthy.

I don't see enough games to make a truly accurate assessment, but I like some other guys for the next group...
Watson
Allen
Tannehill
Prescott
Mayfield
Bridgewater
Cousins
Garoppolo

Some of the youngsters have potential too...
Minshew
Herbert
Burrow

I'm not a big fan of the next few...
Goff
Stafford
Wentz
Fitzy
Smith

Did I miss anyone?

 

[1960Pats]

It's obvious that we're in a QB transition period. But, even saying that, it's wild to me to look at that QB list and realize that there are only 4 QBs I'm willing to guarantee are good enough to get their teams to the playoffs barring injury. Literally none of the QBs outside of the top 4 give me that feeling of confidence. Heck, I'm not even 100% on Wilson, though it's close enough to that for this exercise.

One of the things hurting the NYFL is that the college coaches stopped training QBs for the pros and instead started using QBs that help them win and keep their jobs. Thus the growth of the RB/QB.

 

[Deus Irae]

One of the things hurting the NYFL is that the college coaches stopped training QBs for the pros and instead started using QBs that help them win and keep their jobs. Thus the growth of the RB/QB.

Well, it's not helping that the pro coaches are falling into that rut, rather than developing their QBs' pocket abilities. I mean, even the best of the young guns, Mahomes, has very problematic mechanics and behaviors as a passer.

 

[carmelo15]

So these are the Bucs big free agents:

Ndamukong Suh
Shaq Barrett
Lavonte David
Ryan Succop
Chris Godwin
Rob Gronkowski
Antonio Brown
Leonard Fournette

Which ones are staying and which ones are going?

The ones sure to stay are Gronk, Suh, Succop, and David.

Barrett: Bucs will make a competitive offer but he will leave for the most money and guarantees as he wants to break the bank.

Godwin: Barrett leaving means money for Godwin. They will franchise tag him.

Brown: Godwin staying means a low ball offer for Brown. He will leave for more money.

Fournette: He would have to share the load with Rojo and get paid accordingly. Fournette wants to be the bell cow and get paid top 5 RB money. He will leave as a contending team will offer him top money.

Brown and Fournette leaving could open the door for 1 of Edelman, Amendola, White, or Burkhead to join.

Shaq leaving opens the door for Jj Watt or Von Miller coming in.

If Barrett leaves they better be bringing back both AB/Godwin

 

[venecol]

Tier 1 - Makes everyone better
1. Mahomes
2. Brady
3. Rodgers
4. Wilson
But we do have some concerns sub-tier
5. Watson
Tier 2 - Championship capable with the right support
6. Prescott
7. Ryan
8. Allen
9. Jackson
10. Carr
Boom or Bust: Kyler Murray sub-tier
11. Murray
Tier 3 - Solid but doesn’t inspire championship confidence
12. Stafford
13. Tannehill
14. Garoppolo
15. Mayfield
16. Cousins
Tier 4 - Big Question Mark
17. Wentz
18. Roethlisberger
19. Goff
Tier 5 - Should No Longer Start
20. Bridgewater
21. Trubisky
22. Smith
23. Minshew
24. Jones
25. Lock
26. Darnold

Too Soon To Tell
Burrow
Herbert
Tagovailoa
Hurts

Unknown Situations
Patriots QB (Stidham? Newton?)
Saints QB (Brees return possible but unlikely. Winston? Hill?)

You forgot Mariota, who according to @luuked and others is "the guy" to take us to the promised land. Imagine spending $20M for Mariota but being perfectly OK with letting the GOAT go over $25M. Lol

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You forgot Mariota, who according to @luuked and others is "the guy" to take us to the promised land. Imagine spending $20M for Mariota but being perfectly OK with letting the GOAT go over $25M. Lol

patsfanindenial is the new captain of Team Bill.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Bill is in somewhat of a predicament. If he goes aggressive and spends big on elite FAs, yet the team performs poorly again, his coaching will be in question. If he goes for mid-tier guys and performs poorly, both his coaching and GM skills will be in question.

Obviously, if the team performs better (making playoffs and not being 1 and done), it'll be looked as a win. Winning solves all his problems. Solving the QB conundrum is the main hurdle. Good luck with that.

He should focus on putting out a team that only allows 16-18 pts per game. Imo this would be a step in the right direction and be closer to just needing a QB to be a contender.

It's obvious that we're in a QB transition period. But, even saying that, it's wild to me to look at that QB list and realize that there are only 4 QBs I'm willing to guarantee are good enough to get their teams to the playoffs barring injury. Literally none of the QBs outside of the top 4 give me that feeling of confidence. Heck, I'm not even 100% on Wilson, though it's close enough to that for this exercise.

I don't think it's a conundrum for a guy at a high level - try and fail and people will be mad, regardless of which choices you make. Okay, stipulated, he's an NFL head coach. But to zoom in on the QB issue, and the supporting cast issue, do we really think that no QB could throw more than 8 TDs playing with this offense last year?

At QB especially, we are looking at a singularly bad performance. I do know that other positions could deteriorate, the team could bleed talent now that TFB is gone, and so on.

But to look on the bright side, we do not need a home run replacement. We need a competent NFL QB. We didn't have one last year, as much as I was rooting for Cam.

Add 10 aerial TDs for a given NFL team, and tell me what you think it translates to in games won, on average. That's what we get with an 18-TD performance next year. 1 passing TD per game would be double what we got. It was that bad.

So making the playoffs looks fairly doable, focusing in on QB first. that said, like everybody here, I'll believe it when I see it (just like I'll believe whatever possibilities are out there once the probability wavefront breaks on the rocky NE Coast, collapsing into the form of the yet-unknown QB of the 2021 NE Patriots.

While we're on probability, take comfort that there are at least some universes in which we take home SB 56, as does every other team except the JETE. The many worlds interpretation stipulates that any possible universe actually happens in some universe, maybe just not ours. So much for a JETE super bowl.

 

[amfootball]

Health and the timing of the health issues seem to be always a major player.

Look at the last season. The timing of Vea's return from the IR couldn't have been more perfect.

Evans and Godwin's injuries were at the beginning of the season.

The whole team seemed relatively healthy during the playoff run.

KC lost half of it's Oline.

They had their issues in the playoffs - White did not play vs the WFT due to Covid which almost cost them the game if not for Brady playing a flawless game. They were also down both starting safeties in the second half vs GB which again almost cost them if not for jumping out to a huge lead in the first half. AB also did not play that game.

I think it is always easy to look back and think a team was fortunate but TB lost major players when Vea and Howard were lost. Their receiving core was a mess until the bye. Brady covered most of this to get them to the post-season and of course he was still learning on the job. I think the biggest advantage for them was the late bye. They had 12 weeks of games to analyze to make the necessary adjustments to both sides of the ball which is what propelled their 8 game run to the chip.