Free Agent Targets 2019

[maineman209]

18.1M - 7m for draft picks and cushion:

11.1M + 29.2M = 39.3M

Flowers - 10M - 10/12/15/17/18/18
Dorsett - 2.5M
Patterson - 3M
Gostkowski - 4M
Ryan Allen - 2.5M
McClellan - 1M
Humbar - 810k
LaAdrian Waddle - 2M
Malcolm Brown - 3M
Jeremy Hill - 830K
John Simon - 1.5M
Jason McCourty - 4.5M

RFA:

Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender. 3M

ERFAs: 1.2M

Kamalu (630k)

Cuts/Restructures/Retire: 29.2

Brady Extend saves 7M - 20/31/33
D. McCourty - Restruc. saves 4M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:

Danny Shelton - DT
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Like him a lot but Wynn is a first round pick.

Very reasonable numbers. Great job!

A few nit picks:
- Flowers' contract might be structured to keep his 2019 cap hit in the $6m-$7m range.
- Cutting D. Allen outright, instead of extending/restructuring his cap hit down to ~$3m, would leave the Pats with only Hollister, Izzo (IR) and Anderson (PS) at TE - if Gronk retires. IMHO, that would create a "roster hole" especially experience-wise, that may well cost more than $3m to patch with an outside free agent.
- The cutoff point for the top-51 cap hits seems likely to be around $650k. Veteran minimum 1-yr deals (~$645k, net, I believe) would seem unlikely to hit the cap, so such contracts could be offered to players like Schwenke, John, Waddle, McClellan, Humber and Hill without cap consequence.
- According to OTC, Kamalu is RFA, not ERFA. If so, his contract might mirror Jon Jones' contract. In the past, the Pats have typically signed desirable RFAs (who have yet to become Malcolm Butler level "stars") to 2yr/3yr deals with a much lower first year cap hit than the tender amounts. So, Jones and Kamalu might come in as low as ~$1.5m each for 2019.
- Also according to OTC, the first seven of the Pats draftees would hit the 2019 cap for about $6.7m, gross. The cap hits for the 5th-rounder and the 7th rounders (and all UDFAs) will fall below the top-51 cutoff line.
... That $6.7m gross for the top seven draftees would be reduced by the cap hits of the 7 players who are pushed below the top-51 cutoff, so the net cap hit for the top draftees would likely fall between $2.2m-$2.5m.
... Also, all the above is based on the Pats current draft position. For every post-season game they win, their draft position drops and rookie salaries drop a bit along with that. If they win the SB, for instance, total rookie cap hits might be reduced by ~$350k.
... Obviously, if the Pats trade down, trade out into 2020, or consolidate picks for a small trade up, that could also reduce the total rookie cap hit.

 

[DaBruinz]

Very reasonable numbers. Great job!

A few nit picks:

- According to OTC, Kamalu is RFA, not ERFA. If so, his contract might mirror Jon Jones' contract. In the past, the Pats have typically signed desirable RFAs (who have yet to become Malcolm Butler level "stars") to 2yr/3yr deals with a much lower first year cap hit than the tender amounts. So, Jones and Kamalu might come in as low as ~$1.5m each for 2019.

OTC seems to be moving Kamalu around daily. When I posted, he was listed as an ERFA. NOW, they have him as part of the 2019 roster and not a free agent at all..

 

[DaBruinz]

This is the Patriots Roster going into the off-season, though this will change with any "futures" contracts that are signed prior to the start of next season.

Offense:
QB:
Brady , Hoyer

RB:
Michel, White, Burkhead

FB:
Develin

WR:
Edelman, Berrios, Darren Andrews

TE:
Gronkowski, Allen, Izzo, J. Hollister

OL:
David Andrews, Wynn, Thuney, Mason, Cannon, Karras, Ferentz,

Defense:
D-Line:
Guy, A. Butler, Kamalu, Clayborn, Rivers, Wise, K. Davis

LB:
Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam

CB:
Gilmore, Jackson, Crossen, Dawson,

S:
Melifonwu, D McCourty, Harmon, Chung

STs:
Ebner, Slater, B. King, Cardona

Obvious holes:
WR, DT, K, P, Depth CB, OT,

 

[Brandon Manning]

This is the Patriots Roster going into the off-season, though this will change with any "futures" contracts that are signed prior to the start of next season.

Offense:
QB:
Brady , Hoyer

RB:
Michel, White, Burkhead

FB:
Develin

WR:
Edelman, Berrios, Darren Andrews

TE:
Gronkowski, Allen, Izzo, J. Hollister

OL:
David Andrews, Wynn, Thuney, Mason, Cannon, Karras, Ferentz,

Defense:
D-Line:
Guy, A. Butler, Kamalu, Clayborn, Rivers, Wise, K. Davis

LB:
Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam

CB:
Gilmore, Jackson, Crossen, Dawson,

S:
Melifonwu, D McCourty, Harmon, Chung

STs:
Ebner, Slater, B. King, Cardona

Obvious holes:
WR, DT, K, P, Depth CB, OT,

Why is kicker a "Hole" though? Gost isn't A.V. But he's one of the top five best kickers today. Also, what about Patterson?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Obvious holes:
WR, DT, K, P, Depth CB, OT,

You forgot DE. I’d put that as a top 3 need.

 

[Kontradiction]

Seems doubtful to me that the Pats would be able to find a free agent DT who would be significantly superior to Brown/Shelton in the price range that either of them might command - which I'm estimating (optimistically perhaps), might be $2.75M/year or less (down to veteran minimum).

The reason they're commanding that price range is that they're just not very good. Michael Pierce is only an RFA, but is an immediate upgrade from both of them in the run-stuffing department.

 

[DaBruinz]

View attachment 22117

Why is kicker a "Hole" though? Gost isn't A.V. But he's one of the top five best kickers today. Also, what about Patterson?

Gostkowski and Patterson are both Unrestricted Free Agents..

 

[Brandon Manning]

Gostkowski and Patterson are both Unrestricted Free Agents..

I think both should return. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they will return necessarily.

 

[Chevrolet]

Just saw a post on twitter about the potential free agents for this year coming up. One guy who I took interest in and who we will be playing against this Sunday is Anthony Barr

Big problem for Pats in FA, is taht so many teams have unprecedented $$$ to spend. Colts have 122 million, Jets 102, Bills 89, Browns 75, Raiders 75. Pats are 21st in cap room. League average is 37 million. The top 5 or 6 teams can basically grab multiple top tier free agents. I think the Pats will be left with slim pickings in free agency.

Imagine the Colts with 122 million, they can easily take on Leveon Bell and 4 or 5 other top tier FA's. The Jets with their draft picks nd cap space are also in extremely good position for a rams like turnaround.

 

[Snooky97]

Big problem for Pats in FA, is taht so many teams have unprecedented $$$ to spend. Colts have 122 million, Jets 102, Bills 89, Browns 75, Raiders 75. Pats are 21st in cap room. League average is 37 million. The top 5 or 6 teams can basically grab multiple top tier free agents. I think the Pats will be left with slim pickings in free agency.

Imagine the Colts with 122 million, they can easily take on Leveon Bell and 4 or 5 other top tier FA's. The Jets with their draft picks nd cap space are also in extremely good position for a rams like turnaround.

The Jets they’ll mess it up as per

 

[Deus Irae]

Unless one or the other has the light magically turn on during this playoff run, I'd move on from both M. Brown and D. Shelton. An upgrade is needed at the positions, and there should be some good run stopping DTs available in this free agency period.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Big problem for Pats in FA, is taht so many teams have unprecedented $$$ to spend. Colts have 122 million, Jets 102, Bills 89, Browns 75, Raiders 75. Pats are 21st in cap room. League average is 37 million. The top 5 or 6 teams can basically grab multiple top tier free agents. I think the Pats will be left with slim pickings in free agency.

Imagine the Colts with 122 million, they can easily take on Leveon Bell and 4 or 5 other top tier FA's. The Jets with their draft picks nd cap space are also in extremely good position for a rams like turnaround.

For one Stephon Gilmore (FA that is an All-Pro with new team) there are 5 Malcolm Butlers. Let 'em spend.

I stated in another thread I do not expect NE to be winners in the off-season. They'll be going after the after market goods as usual.

They are ramping up for the mother of all drafts.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

For one Stephon Gilmore (FA that is an All-Pro with new team) there are 5 Malcolm Butlers. Let 'em spend.

I stated in another thread I do not expect NE to be winners in the off-season. They'll be going after the after market goods as usual.

They are ramping up for the mother of all drafts.

As they should be. This FA class top to bottom is pretty weak. No need to overpay. I’d consider us being able to keep flowers as an offseason win if that’s the only big splash we make.

 

[mgteich]

The operative word is "should". We will have Guy, Kamalu and Butler. We need 2 more. At least one will a veteran, hopefully an upgrade.

Unless one or the other has the light magically turn on during this playoff run, I'd move on from both M. Brown and D. Shelton. An upgrade is needed at the positions, and there should be some good run stopping DTs available in this free agency period.

 

[RobertWeathers]

As they should be. This FA class top to bottom is pretty weak. No need to overpay. I’d consider us being able to keep flowers as an offseason win if that’s the only big splash we make.

Keeping Flowers is priority 1a

Extending Tom is priority 1b

What I'm curious about is the sequencing. Do they square away Tom before FA period or afterwards?

 

[mgteich]

We should concentrate on re-signing our own, as we usually do. We also have 6 draft picks in the top 105, plus more late picks.

T. Brown
Patterson
Hogan
Dorsett
Hill
Gostkowski
Allen
Flowers
J McCourty
J Jones

As they should be. This FA class top to bottom is pretty weak. No need to overpay. I’d consider us being able to keep flowers as an offseason win if that’s the only big splash we make.

 

[Deus Irae]

The operative word is "should". We will have Guy, Kamalu and Butler. We need 2 more. At least one will a veteran, hopefully an upgrade.

Should/shouldn't is always the way of discussions regarding pending free agents. If, for example, every single team with a run stuffing defensive tackle resigns said run stuffing tackle, none of them will be free agents. That's understood.

We should concentrate on re-signing our own, as we usually do. We also have 6 draft picks in the top 105, plus more late picks.

T. Brown
Patterson
Hogan
Dorsett
Hill
Gostkowski
Allen
Flowers
J McCourty
J Jones

Just my early thoughts on some of the players above:

Allen's price tag is too high. It'll need to be lower if he's to return.
Hill's injury may make an early signing questionable.
J. McCourty's price tag is too high. It'll need to be lower if he's to return.
Flowers may well price himself out of New England.
Like Flowers, T. Brown is worth keeping up to a certain price point, but I don't think they'll break the bank for him.
New England's treatment of Dorsett makes me wonder if they, or Dorsett, are going to have any interest in a return.

 

[Brandon Manning]

Harrison was released by SD when we signed him. Moss was a trade. Gilmore has to be one of the best FA signings in Pats history. Does he not?

 

[maineman209]

As they should be. This FA class top to bottom is pretty weak. No need to overpay. I’d consider us being able to keep flowers as an offseason win if that’s the only big splash we make.

It's often the "small splashes" that make a big difference. Nink. Woodhead. Van Noy.

Who yet really knows what might happen with Simon or Melifonwu?

 

[RobertWeathers]

It's often the "small splashes" that make a big difference. Nink. Woodhead. Van Noy.

Who yet really knows what might happen with Simon or Melifonwu?

...or Kamalu.