Free Agent Targets 2019

[mgteich]

Miguel's $18M number is after the Practice Squad and ERFA's are added to the 43. So, we have $18M of cap room for 54 players.

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By my count on OTC, the Pats have 43 people under contract for next year with 25M in Cap Space. Miguel has us at about $18M in cap space..

 

[maineman209]

We need to choose a veteran DT in free agency. This could Brown or Shelton, but perhaps not. Clearly we need a DT or 2 in the draft.

Seems doubtful to me that the Pats would be able to find a free agent DT who would be significantly superior to Brown/Shelton in the price range that either of them might command - which I'm estimating (optimistically perhaps), might be $2.75M/year or less (down to veteran minimum).

 

[Jimke]

Simon, Rivers and Davis are inexpensive camp competitors. Wise is an OK inexpensive rotational player, as are Butler and Kamalu. Clayborne is likely gone, unless hidden injuries are the reason for his ineffectiveness.

We need to choose a veteran DT in free agency. This could Brown or Shelton, but perhaps not. Clearly we need a DT or 2 in the draft.

At LB, we will have Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley and Sam (another in expensive camp body). A LB or 2 in the draft seems likely.

FREE AGENCY
We need a DE or 2 (hopefully Flowers), a DT or 2 (perhaps Brown or Shelton) and perhaps a LB. I see this as normal needs, upgrades and turnover. For me, needing 5 defensive players is not a reason to panic as we enter an off-season, especially when we have 6 top draft picks.

I hope the Pats draft a DE and DT before all the top rated ones come off the board.

 

[mgteich]

Are you saying that the market for the best DT available to anyone is vet minimum to $2.75M?

Unless there is no need at all for DT's it would seem that the market would be higher.

Seems doubtful to me that the Pats would be able to find a free agent DT who would be significantly superior to Brown/Shelton in the price range that either of them might command - which I'm estimating (optimistically perhaps), might be $2.75M/year or less (down to veteran minimum).

 

[maineman209]

Are you saying that the market for the best DT available to anyone is vet minimum to $2.75M?

Unless there is no need at all for DT's it would seem that the market would be higher.

Sorry. I was unclear.

I'm assuming the goal is to upgrade from Brown/Shelton - short term through free agency, and/or longer term through the draft.

I'm guessing that the cost of retaining one of Brown or Shelton could be around $2.75M AAV ... with a 2019 cap hit perhaps as low as veteran minimum, or $805K (plus signing bonus apportionment, of course) - basically rotational veteran level. Perhaps generous, perhaps not. I really don't know what their market may be, come March.

I'm just doubting that the Pats would be able to acquire a significant upgrade to Brown/Shelton without going significantly above that price range - which might be difficult, cap-wise.

Anyway, my background thinking to this is ... if Brown and Shelton are both allowed to walk before replacements are in hand, the Pats will have only two DTs with experience in the system/schemes - Guy and Butler (plus Herron from the PS). So, I'm looking for a way to preserve continuity of experience level without breaking the bank, AND while upgrading the level of play.

I think that the existing cap constraints for 2019 would allow for retaining one or the other at a relatively low cap hit (and low guarantee risk), though I'm not entirely sure.

 

[DaBruinz]

My Re-signs are:

Flowers - Still don't believe he'll get $10m/yr. , but definitely someone to re-sign.
Dorsett
Patterson
Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
McClellan
Humbar

RFA:
Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender.

ERFAs:
Josh Gordon
Kamalu
C. Hollister

Cuts/Restructures/Retire:
D. McCourty - Cut saves 9.5M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:
Jeremy Hill - RB
LaAdrian Waddle - OT
John Simon - DE/OLB
Danny Shelton - DT
Malcolm Brown - DT
Jason McCourty - DB
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Not sold on him. Another team will give him $16m/year like they did Solder

 

[p8ryts]

My Re-signs are:

Flowers - Still don't believe he'll get $10m/yr. , but definitely someone to re-sign.
Dorsett
Patterson
Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
McClellan
Humbar


RFA:
Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender.

ERFAs:
Josh Gordon
Kamalu
C. Hollister

Cuts/Restructures/Retire:
D. McCourty - Cut saves 9.5M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:
Jeremy Hill - RB
LaAdrian Waddle - OT
John Simon - DE/OLB
Danny Shelton - DT
Malcolm Brown - DT
Jason McCourty - DB
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Not sold on him. Another team will give him $16m/year like they did Solder

Don’t want Gordon, offense better without him

 

[Brandon Manning]

Dumb question. But I keep getting a pop up on the right hand side of my phone. It says " Live discussion...". How do I avoid the pop up that so and so posted in a thread?

 

[DaBruinz]

Don’t want Gordon, offense better without him

It's not a matter of wanting him. He's an ERFA. That means the Patriots own his rights regardless. Considering he's on the suspended List and his contract is up, it will be interesting to see how the NFL handles it. My guess is that he remains Patriots "property" until such time as he's reinstated and then the Patriots will have the option of what to do.

And I'll respectfully disagree with you on your claims that the offense is better without Gordon.

 

[Snooky97]

My Re-signs are:

Flowers - Still don't believe he'll get $10m/yr. , but definitely someone to re-sign.
Dorsett
Patterson
Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
McClellan
Humbar

RFA:
Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender.

ERFAs:
Josh Gordon
Kamalu
C. Hollister

Cuts/Restructures/Retire:
D. McCourty - Cut saves 9.5M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:
Jeremy Hill - RB
LaAdrian Waddle - OT
John Simon - DE/OLB
Danny Shelton - DT
Malcolm Brown - DT
Jason McCourty - DB
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Not sold on him. Another team will give him $16m/year like they did Solder

I’d like us to try and bring Simon back, reminds me of Ninko.. does everything solid.

 

[LT85]

A few guys that might be interesting and fill some needs. Without breaking the bank.

Adam Humphries - Bucs - WR - 26
Get younger at WR. Seems to have many of the qualities we look for in wr's. And no, being white wasn't what I was thinking of. I'd like to add at least one slot receiver and a bigger target that can go deep. Maybe Humphries for slot and find the other in the draft.

Bennie Logan - Titans - DT - 29
Had solid years in the league but wasn't used that much this year. Could still have 3-4 good years. Draft a DT high and maybe extend Brown - if cheap - for depth. Logan, draft pick, Guy, Butler, Brown.

 

[supafly]

A few guys that might be interesting and fill some needs. Without breaking the bank.

Adam Humphries - Bucs - WR - 26
Get younger at WR. Seems to have many of the qualities we look for in wr's. And no, being white wasn't what I was thinking of. I'd like to add at least one slot receiver and a bigger target that can go deep. Maybe Humphries for slot and find the other in the draft.

Bennie Logan - Titans - DT - 29
Had solid years in the league but wasn't used that much this year. Could still have 3-4 good years. Draft a DT high and maybe extend Brown - if cheap - for depth. Logan, draft pick, Guy, Butler, Brown.

That would be a nice way to address two key areas, and your projection seems fairly reasonable to me. Humphries is going to command more money that most are expecting, but it’s an important position here in NE.

Logan is a good enough example, although one may want a little more. Do you keep Flowers, too?

 

[maineman209]

I’d like us to try and bring Simon back, reminds me of Ninko.. does everything solid.

He turned out to be a pretty decent emergency free agent signing (for 1 yr, $1m) when Bentley went to IR.

- Drafted in the 4th (#129) by the Ravens in 2013, active for 7 games (minimal stats).
- Ravens waived him to their PS in 2014 cutdowns.

- Texans poached him from the Ravens' PS in Oct 2014. Simon had 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 6 QBH and a PD in limited action at OLB over the course of 11 games.
- He became a high-use rotational guy/part-time starter for the Texans in 2015. Posted 49 tackles, 5 sacks, 11 QBH in 2015.
- He played for HOU under a $1.67m RFA tender in 2016. Posted 51 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 10 QBH in 11 games.
.... Crennell was Simon's DC and Wilfork was a teammate during 2015 & 2016.

- Simon signed a 3-yr, $14m contract ($6m guaranteed) with Indy in 2017. Played OLB in their 3-4. He suffered a neck/shoulder singer in week-7 that ultimately landed him on IR. Nevertheless, he posted 42 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks, 12 QBH and a pick-six in less than half a season.
- The Colts changed coaching regimes this season, and the new DC (Eberflus) switched from the previous 3-4 to a 4-3 based scheme. A few 3-4 type players who had been productive in Indy's 3-4 ended up getting cut. Simon was waived in cutdowns.

In 11 games for the Pats as a rotational DE/OLB, Simon has posted 17 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, and 3 QBH. He missed weeks 6 & 7 to a shoulder injury. He turned 28 this past October.

I can't imagine the Pats offering him anywhere near what Indy did, but I'm not sure that Simon would accept a minimal offer, either.

 

[LT85]

That would be a nice way to address two key areas, and your projection seems fairly reasonable to me. Humphries is going to command more money that most are expecting, but it’s an important position here in NE.

Logan is a good enough example, although one may want a little more. Do you keep Flowers, too?

Yes, I'd keep Flowers if at all possible. If some team offers him crazy money then he's gone, but if it's within reason they should keep him. He is the perfect patriot on and off the field. Alot of our defensive cornerstones are getting up there in age, so keeping the young stud is important.

Build around him and gilmore with some of the young guys hopefully living up to their potential. Guys like Bentley, JC Jackson etc.

 

[supafly]

Yes, I'd keep Flowers if at all possible. If some team offers him crazy money then he's gone, but if it's within reason they should keep him. He is the perfect patriot on and off the field. Alot of our defensive cornerstones are getting up there in age, so keeping the young stud is important.

Build around him and gilmore with some of the young guys hopefully living up to their potential. Guys like Bentley, JC Jackson etc.

I agree re: Flowers. I see many projections of 15m+ a year, but I think he’ll be closer to somewhere around 12m or so. Of course, we may have to go through the painful dance of watching him field offers while he sets his market in free agency, first. That’s fully what I’m expecting, and that’s going to suck.

 

[LT85]

What happens with Clowney, Lawrence, and Clark will also play a role in all of this.

Do they hit the market? If so, good for us. Do they all get extended leaving Flowers as the clear best DE, then probably not so good for us.

 

[maineman209]

A few guys that might be interesting and fill some needs. Without breaking the bank.

Adam Humphries - Bucs - WR - 26
Get younger at WR. Seems to have many of the qualities we look for in wr's. And no, being white wasn't what I was thinking of. I'd like to add at least one slot receiver and a bigger target that can go deep. Maybe Humphries for slot and find the other in the draft.

Bennie Logan - Titans - DT - 29
Had solid years in the league but wasn't used that much this year. Could still have 3-4 good years. Draft a DT high and maybe extend Brown - if cheap - for depth. Logan, draft pick, Guy, Butler, Brown.

I like Humphries, I'm somewhat concerned about the potential 2019 cap hit.
-----
Logan might be interesting, and certainly not particularly expensive.

Logan was a productive run-stopper for his first three seasons (Philly) as the NT in Bill Davis' 3-4 schemes. Generated some occasional pressure, too. Not so much in 2016 after Schwartz came in with his attacking 4-3.

Logan signed as a UFA with KCY in 2017 on a 1-year deal for $8m, and he seemed to be a productive run-stopper agin in their 3-4 under Bob Sutton. I'm not sure why they didn't re-sign him, but he ended up with the Titans on a 1-yr/$4m deal.

This season, in TEN, Jurrell Casey was the Titans' full-time DT. Logan split time with Darius Kilgo as a reserve/rotational NT behind Austin Johnson. Logan had just 14 tackles in just 229 snaps. I'm guessing that, if the Titans make him an offer, it won't be for whole lot.

It's not clear how well Logan would do in the Pats' hybrid scheme, but he just turned 29 at the end of December, and might be pretty cheap on a 1-yr deal. OTOH, I'm not sure he'd be an upgrade, even over Shelton.

 

[LT85]

I like Humphries, I'm somewhat concerned about the potential 2019 cap hit.
-----
Logan might be interesting, and certainly not particularly expensive.

Logan was a productive run-stopper for his first three seasons (Philly) as the NT in Bill Davis' 3-4 schemes. Generated some occasional pressure, too. Not so much in 2016 after Schwartz came in with his attacking 4-3.

Logan signed as a UFA with KCY in 2017 on a 1-year deal for $8m, and he seemed to be a productive run-stopper agin in their 3-4 under Bob Sutton. I'm not sure why they didn't re-sign him, but he ended up with the Titans on a 1-yr/$4m deal.

This season, in TEN, Jurrell Casey was the Titans' full-time DT. Logan split time with Darius Kilgo as a reserve/rotational NT behind Austin Johnson. Logan had just 14 tackles in just 229 snaps. I'm guessing that, if the Titans make him an offer, it won't be for whole lot.

It's not clear how well Logan would do in the Pats' hybrid scheme, but he just turned 29 at the end of December, and might be pretty cheap on a 1-yr deal. OTOH, I'm not sure he'd be an upgrade, even over Shelton.

Good info. Maybe Tyeler Davison from the saints is an alternative. I remember a few guys on here liked him coming out.

It's also an option to extend brown/shelton and then draft two dt's. One early and one mid round.

 

[maineman209]

Good info. Maybe Tyeler Davison from the saints is an alternative. I remember a few guys on here liked him coming out.

It's also an option to extend brown/shelton and then draft two dt's. One early and one mid round.

Davison seems like he might be a better fit. The Saints seem to have had a nice 4-man rotation at DT this season with Davison, Taylor Stallworth (rookie), Sheldon Rankins (3rd year), and David Onyemata (also 3rd year). I'm not sure they're going to want to break that up, if they can afford to keep everybody, cap-wise.

Extending one of Brown/Shelton, affordably (e.g., 3 years/$3m AAV), seems prudent in that it provides some additional flexibility wrt DT draft selections.

Honestly, though, it still wouldn't shock me if the Pats retained Shelton instead of Brown, and then went after tall, 285-305lb, 2-gapping DE/DT types in the draft ... Kamalu/Guy-ish. They looked closely at a lot more of those types prior to the 2018 draft than they did the shorter/heavier DT/NT types.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

My Re-signs are:

Flowers - Still don't believe he'll get $10m/yr. , but definitely someone to re-sign.
Dorsett
Patterson
Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
McClellan
Humbar

RFA:
Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender.

ERFAs:
Josh Gordon
Kamalu
C. Hollister

Cuts/Restructures/Retire:
D. McCourty - Cut saves 9.5M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:
Jeremy Hill - RB
LaAdrian Waddle - OT
John Simon - DE/OLB
Danny Shelton - DT
Malcolm Brown - DT
Jason McCourty - DB
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Not sold on him. Another team will give him $16m/year like they did Solder

18.1M - 7m for draft picks and cushion:

11.1M + 29.2M = 39.3M

Flowers - 10M - 10/12/15/17/18/18
Dorsett - 2.5M
Patterson - 3M
Gostkowski - 4M
Ryan Allen - 2.5M
McClellan - 1M
Humbar - 810k
LaAdrian Waddle - 2M
Malcolm Brown - 3M
Jeremy Hill - 830K
John Simon - 1.5M
Jason McCourty - 4.5M

RFA:

Jonathan Jones - 2nd round tender. 3M

ERFAs: 1.2M

Kamalu (630k)

Cuts/Restructures/Retire: 29.2

Brady Extend saves 7M - 20/31/33
D. McCourty - Restruc. saves 4M
D. Allen - Cut saves 7.4M
Gronk - Cut/Retire saves 9.8M

Remaining Pats Free Agents:

Danny Shelton - DT
Chris Hogan - WR
Eric Rowe - DB
Brian Schwenke - OC
Ulrick John - RT
Trent Brown - OT - Like him a lot but Wynn is a first round pick.