Curran: Bills coming due for Patriots dynasty after this season

[captain stone]

...letting the current best kicker in the league (second best kicker in league history) walk to save <2.5% in total cap expenses doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

He's not the best Kicker in the league.

 

[slash83]

He's not the best Kicker in the league.

He’s close to it.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I hope we resign ghost. At least we’ll know the kicking game is in good hands.

 

[captain stone]

...Its flawed in it's thesis.

In his article, Curran has a belief that...

b) Bill is sitting back and doing absolutely nothing to build for Dynasty 3.0 right now.

That particular belief certainly isn't flawed.

 

[captain stone]

He's not the best Kicker in the league.

He’s close to it.

Top 8/25% for sure.

 

[Steve102]

Exactly. I don't really give a fu*k about next year. Or the year after.
We're playing with house money.
After 17+ years of the greatest dynasty in NFL history and especially after the mind-blowing comebacks in the 2014 & 2016 SBs, everything else is gravy.
We got a good shot this year if they can get and stay healthy.
I've been a Pats fan since the early 60's, that will never change.
But right now, I'm just enjoying the last leg of this awesome ride the 2 GOATS have taken us on. More than anybody could ever ask for.
I just feel sorry for all these doom and gloomers. Life is too short. Gotta enjoy the good times while they last.

This. So much this.

Not really. Its flawed in it's thesis.

In his article, Curran has a belief that...
a) The Patriots chose 2009 to take a step back and blow up Dynasty 1.0 to rebuild for Dynasty 2.0 when in actuality they are iterative in how the add/drop talent
b) Bill is sitting back and doing absolutely nothing to build for Dynasty 3.0 right now.

Do you really believe that? I don't. I think he's missed on the draft of late. I also have a concern about the statement "At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that's it, and I'm not going to coach anybody else." There's plenty of d-bags out there who can play. But Bill doesn't want those guys. He wants his type of guys. I think that those guys are fewer and fewer every day. It makes Bill the GM work harder for Bill the coach. I digress, sorry.

I don't have a problem with what Tom Curran says. But in 2009, we couldn't see the future, any more than we could see it in 2000, before he brought in Bryan Cox, Larry Izzo, Fife, Anthony Pleasant, Vrabel, David Patten and Antowain Smith. Oh, and drafted Seymour and Light. Do I think he can do it again? Not to that level, no. But you never know.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That particular belief certainly isn't flawed.

Look at all the 2019 draft picks and potential cap space with limited dead cap available to them this offseason.

Those circumstances are premeditated.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This. So much this.
Do you really believe that? I don't. I think he's missed on the draft of late. I also have a concern about the statement "At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that's it, and I'm not going to coach anybody else." There's plenty of d-bags out there who can play. But Bill doesn't want those guys. He wants his type of guys. I think that those guys are fewer and fewer every day. It makes Bill the GM work harder for Bill the coach. I digress, sorry.

Are you are implying Bill is not working as hard or no longer on top of his game? I.E hes gone soft?

Just because hes missed on some draft picks or he is only having players on the team he "likes" doesn't mean he is sitting on his ass doing nothing or trying to create a winner. Plus he made that statement before winning a Super Bowl and no one cared then. Now people are reading into it more?

I don't have a problem with what Tom Curran says. But in 2009, we couldn't see the future, any more than we could see it in 2000, before he brought in Bryan Cox, Larry Izzo, Fife, Anthony Pleasant, Vrabel, David Patten and Antowain Smith. Oh, and drafted Seymour and Light. Do I think he can do it again? Not to that level, no. But you never know.

Just because you couldn't see it doesn't mean it wasn't happening.

In 08 they landed Mayo, BJGE and Slater.
In 09 they landed Chung, Vollmer, Wendell, Arrington and Edelman

All the players above had key roles in future Super Bowl appearances.

Plus they acquired draft picks which led to other players who had key roles.

 

[maineman209]

I think he's missed on the draft of late.

Nine of the Pats' last 22 rookie draftees (40%) have spent at least one full season on IR, as have 8 of the last 13 rookies (62%) ..... due to unforeseeable injuries - which means I'm NOT including Mitchell (foreseeable) or Dawson or Bentley (not full seasons).

The past four drafts (33 total selections) have, so far, produced 7 current starters/regular rotational players, plus Cardona, plus 6 others who have made significant contributions as rotational players (for at least one season), high-use special-teamers, and/or backups.

This does also NOT include draft picks spent on contributors like Cooks, JMac, KVN or Patterson.

 

[50-yard-line]

Too alarmist - the dynasty continues to ride on Brady. If he's playing, they're competitive, period. When he's done, there will be a flounder until they get another good QB in place. The good news is, QBs are coming out of college ready to go and having major impacts early on.

As for this team next year:

Gronkowski might be done, here or completely. Big loss, but a bigger loss on paper than on the field of late. 448 yards and 1 td in 10 games? I know he adds good blocking and defenses have to account for him, but these guys have won SBs without him. I hope he extends and sticks around, but...

Flowers might be keepable. BB loves the guy - he does the things that are asked of him, whereas others will charge right in to get that sack number up for the big $$$. Hope they keep him for a long time.

Their O-line is VERY GOOD and young and getting years of experience together. I'd like to see Brown resigned and think it's possible, but I also think Wynn is going to be an absolute stud at either guard or tackle.

Gordon, Dorsett, Hogan, Jules will all be back if the Pats want them back. Gordon isn't a free agent next year, by the way, he's an RFA.

As far as drafting goes, I remain high on the 2018 class. Wynn will get there, Michel is only going to get better, and Bentley is an NFL linebacker in the making. I don't know about Dawson yet, but Jackson and Crossen are both doing well as rookies.

I guess we'll see, but to me, it's all about Brady for the bills coming due, and I don't think he's declined nearly as much as some of the perennial cliff-divers seem to think. Half of his picks this year have been bad luck tips, and the Patriots had a tough first-half strength of schedule against some teams - again, two fluke games against mediocre opponents with HCs who knew them well and were playing in their SB (with key injuries in those games) and a third if you want to count the Jags (who never should have lost that game against Pitt), and where are they?

They beat KC, and I don't think the game was as close as the score. They crushed Miami and revealed them. They beat the Bears in Chicago and beat the Packers convincingly. They crunched the Texans.

Their last six games include the Bills, the Phins, the Jets twice, Minnesota at home, and Pittsburgh. Denver, KC, and SD will all be beating each other up, Pittsburgh has a date in New Orleans.

Yup, the sky is still up there.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think he's merely discussing dynasty as opposed to being a very competitive team.
Belichick will always find very competitive players who wish to buy in here.

I still go back to when he was in NY with Parcells.
They brought in a ton of FA OL's and built one of the best lines in the NFL out of that.
He will restock and we'll be in the mix ... I think the debate will just be how good w/o Brady.
It's not like we're a great team now ... we are a very good team that has Brady.

Parcels also built an awesome O-line with the Jets.

 

[DaBruinz]

This. So much this.
Do you really believe that? I don't. I think he's missed on the draft of late. I also have a concern about the statement "At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that's it, and I'm not going to coach anybody else." There's plenty of d-bags out there who can play. But Bill doesn't want those guys. He wants his type of guys. I think that those guys are fewer and fewer every day. It makes Bill the GM work harder for Bill the coach. I digress, sorry.

Really? You think he's missed on the draft lately.. Please cite your examples.

 

[DaBruinz]

@QuantumMechanic - You disagreed with my post. I'm curious what you disagreed with..

 

[luuked]

While Curran makes some fair points, all it takes is one draft. The Saints went three straight seasons at 7-9 & now may have one of the best teams of this decade thanks in large part to nailing the 2017 draft.

Or in the Saints case finally nail a draft after picking from the same position (low teens) almost every year since 2013. Which is still about 20 spots earlier than anywhere the Pats have picked from for more or less twice the time. It only took them going through twice as many first round picks as we had in the same time to have a competitive team again.

"It takes one draft" might be not wrong but it is a bit misleading about the probabilities to do just that even when you are in a considerably better position to do so.

 

[Kontradiction]

Or in the Saints case finally nail a draft after picking from the same position (low teens) almost every year since 2013. Which is still about 20 spots earlier than anywhere the Pats have picked from for more or less twice the time. It only took them going through twice as many first round picks as we had in the same time to have a competitive team again.

"It takes one draft" might be not wrong but it is a bit misleading about the probabilities to do just that even when you are in a considerably better position to do so.

To be fair, the only fugly draft they had in their first couple of picks was 2015. In 2014, they took Cooks in the first round. In 2016, they selected Rankins in the first and Michael Thomas in the second. In 2015, they whiffed pretty badly Andrus Peat and Stephone Anthony. 2017 was an absolute home run.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Or in the Saints case finally nail a draft after picking from the same position (low teens) almost every year since 2013. Which is still about 20 spots earlier than anywhere the Pats have picked from for more or less twice the time. It only took them going through twice as many first round picks as we had in the same time to have a competitive team again.

"It takes one draft" might be not wrong but it is a bit misleading about the probabilities to do just that even when you are in a considerably better position to do so.

Agree.

As long as Tom plays at a high level and his cap $ is reasonable, with a good draft and making good cap decisions on Gronk, DMC and Allen they can be elite next year easy.

 

[luuked]

To be fair, the only fugly draft they had in their first couple of picks was 2015. In 2014, they took Cooks in the first round. In 2016, they selected Rankins in the first and Michael Thomas in the second. In 2015, they whiffed pretty badly Andrus Peat and Stephone Anthony. 2017 was an absolute home run.

I am not saying every draft was bad just that it took them a couple of drafts while being in considerably better position than we have been since 2009 (?) in each of them to actually really nail one. And only 2017 got them over the top in terms of roster.

 

[luuked]

Agree.

As long as Tom plays at a high level and his cap $ is reasonable, with a good draft and making good cap decisions on Gronk, DMC and Allen they can be elite next year easy.

While I certainly understand the importance of the draft I feel like a lot of people are overvaluing it relative to all other avenues of acquiring talent. FA, trades, UDFAs.. all things that this team has been using pretty well in the past decade.

I am not saying I am expecting a lot but lets see what impact (if any) Melifonwu will have down the line. He might very well end up being someone like Branch who was on the streets and then becomes a key piece.

Similarly, we are all greedy and dont have enough patience but lets see where Gordon is after a full offseason with Brady.

 

[Deus Irae]

While I certainly understand the importance of the draft I feel like a lot of people are overvaluing it relative to all other avenues of acquiring talent. FA, trades, UDFAs.. all things that this team has been using pretty well in the past decade.

I am not saying I am expecting a lot but lets see what impact (if any) Melifonwu will have down the line. He might very well end up being someone like Branch who was on the streets and then becomes a key piece.

Similarly, we are all greedy and dont have enough patience but lets see where Gordon is after a full offseason with Brady.

Your consistent overrating of what the team has done on the personnel side is part of what's led you to the silliness of your consistent denigration of Brady this season.

 

[Jimke]

While I certainly understand the importance of the draft I feel like a lot of people are overvaluing it relative to all other avenues of acquiring talent. FA, trades, UDFAs.. all things that this team has been using pretty well in the past decade.

I am not saying I am expecting a lot but lets see what impact (if any) Melifonwu will have down the line. He might very well end up being someone like Branch who was on the streets and then becomes a key piece.

Similarly, we are all greedy and dont have enough patience but lets see where Gordon is after a full offseason with Brady.

I think the draft is very important. It gives teams a supply of players for 4 years
at relatively cheap salaries. Draft picks and UDFAs give teams inexpensive salaries
to help offset expensive salaries for star players.