Curran: Bills coming due for Patriots dynasty after this season

[RobertWeathers]

Gost's 2018 cap hit is actually $5M.

If the overriding goal is to maximize cap space, sure, let Gost walk. If it's something else that includes winning games, letting the current best kicker in the league (second best kicker in league history) walk to save <2.5% in total cap expenses doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Agree. It makes zero sense.

 

[TomPatriot]

Bill for Pats' dynasty comes due this offseason

This won’t be popular but I’m looking forward to Bill doing a rebuild. I’m willing to live with a tough season or two to watch the process post-Brady.

 

[Love The Drake]

Bill or maybe Josh

 

[TomPatriot]

So tell us what's so wrong with Curran's piece.

Nothing. It’s spot on.

 

[TomPatriot]

Thing is, critiquing the team for its flaws without considering its strengths is taking a distorted view. Having Brady and Belichick is as much as part of the picture as is having Roberts and Waddle. So when Chicken Little posts about the latter while ignoring the former I’ll have my fun calling them out. Sorry if you don’t like it.

The strengths are declining or leaving. I think that’s one point of the article.

 

[RayClay]

The Patriots literally have a mission statement that says the opposite.

My company has a mission statement too. Don't think they consult it before they do what they need too, though. What does the mission statement say about getting a starting quarterback [at what expense?] then having all your starters retire?

I don't think a mission statement can build a new team. Danny Etling?

 

[RayClay]

...Or we could get rid of all the sizable contracts when TB and Gronk retire, pick up a bunch of street free agents and draft a QB in the 6th round. Worked once.

 

[oldrover]

This won’t be popular but I’m looking forward to Bill doing a rebuild. I’m willing to live with a tough season or two to watch the process post-Brady.

On a semi-related point, I remember really enjoying the 2008 season, and thinking at the time it might be Belichick's best. Which... it might!

 

[MassPats38]

The strengths are declining or leaving. I think that’s one point of the article.

Nothing. It’s spot on.

Who exactly are the strengths declining or leaving (Brady? That is the part of the article I like least, as it suggests Brady would want out now - starting over on a new team at 42 (the alternative is he would give up on 45 this year)? Right.)? After that, ask who has consistently been on the team for Super Bowl runs (Gronk has not, for example, been a playoff fixture for a long time - he has averaged 11 of 16 games since 2012).

I agree Brady is and will be the core of any title run. Without him, expectations fall off a cliff. This same apocalyptic discussion came up in 2013 when Brady was throwing to Dobson and Thompkins yet somehow the Pats stumbled their way to an AFC Championship game loss followed by a Super Bowl win, another title after that and a championship loss. Brady was worse statistically in 2013 than this year. I will not stamp him done or declining just yet.

Last year, people were freaking out over Solder leaving - how did that play out for Solder and the Pats? Answer: big Pats win as Solder has looked awful and Brown has been a steal. Now the apparent one-year rental in Trent Brown is doom if not re-signed (notwithstanding the first rounder hurt this year who looked to be a possible replacement for Solder). Doom, not doomed, doomed again.

As for your looking forward to rebuilding post-Brady, I have no idea how long you have followed the Patriots, but that world was not all that fun. The only reason I look forward to that day is to see how many fans now complaining about the state of a 7-3 team (after 17 winning seasons) are still around after a year or two of 5-11 or 1-15. That isn't implying you are one of those people incapable of weathering that unpleasant reality, but it is my curiosity that I can wait to have answered.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Nothing. It’s spot on.

Not really. Its flawed in it's thesis.

In his article, Curran has a belief that...
a) The Patriots chose 2009 to take a step back and blow up Dynasty 1.0 to rebuild for Dynasty 2.0 when in actuality they are iterative in how the add/drop talent
b) Bill is sitting back and doing absolutely nothing to build for Dynasty 3.0 right now.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Not really. Its flawed in it's thesis.

In his article, Curran has a belief that...
a) The Patriots chose 2009 to take a step back and blow up Dynasty 1.0 to rebuild for Dynasty 2.0 when in actuality they are iterative in how the add/drop talent
b) Bill is sitting back and doing absolutely nothing to build for Dynasty 3.0 right now.

If that were true, would we see him trading for future draft picks? By not signing too many free agents this years, when Lewis and Solder walked, he ensured they will get compensatory picks ( likely 3rd rounders) and trading for others means next year's draft is stocked and a must for replenishing.
Compare that to Pittsburgh who signed two free agents and only lost one... when Le'veon walks, they wont get a compensatory pick for him because the numbers offset ( lost two, signed two)...
They could have up to 13 picks next draft,
one in first round, two in second rounds, three in third, one each in 4th.5th.6th and potentially 4 in 7th round.
Here’s how many picks the Patriots have (for now) in the 2019 NFL Draft | Boston.com
I think BB views this as a challenge and relishes the thought of dynasty 3.0...


EDIT- I know some of this changed w Gordon trade etc but I cant find an updated link. My point is that they are well positioned for the draft...to restock/rebuild.

 

[maineman209]

I've read the article but i'm not sure what Curran means by, "Because a 3.0 version of this dynasty is not currently being developed." Is he implying that 2009 was the "in development" and this year is a "measured" title march and next year is the "3.0 development cycle"?

I think Cuuran is implying that 2009 was the beginning of a "wholesale roster teardown" that was forced by the age/cost of core players. However, I think that the teardown was primarily on the defensive side, and primarily due to Belichick beginning a deliberate transition of the defensive schemes that mostly took place in 2010-11 (a change that caused Pees to walk). BB was going to need at least some players with different skill sets and experience, regardless.

While this corresponded with the beginning of "Dynasty v2.0", I wouldn't necessarily assume that it was the cause, as Curran appears to do.

So, the Pats do appear to be in a roster age/cost situation that's somewhat similar to that of 2009. Curran is claiming that "Dynasty v2.0" is ending this season, and he appears to be implying that another wholesale roster teardown is a prerequisite to the creation of "Dynasty v3.0".

IMHO, the only major roster change required for "Dynasty v3.0" - if there is to be one - is acquiring a Brady-level replacement in a mobile QB. The age/cost situations with Gronk, DMac, HT and others are merely coincidental.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If that were true, would we see him trading for future draft picks? By not signing too many free agents this years, when Lewis and Solder walked, he ensured they will get compensatory picks ( likely 3rd rounders) and trading for others means next year's draft is stocked and a must for replenishing.
Compare that to Pittsburgh who signed two free agents and only lost one... when Le'veon walks, they wont get a compensatory pick for him because the numbers offset ( lost two, signed two)...
They could have up to 13 picks next draft,
one in first round, two in second rounds, three in third, one each in 4th.5th.6th and potentially 4 in 7th round.
Here’s how many picks the Patriots have (for now) in the 2019 NFL Draft | Boston.com
I think BB views this as a challenge and relishes the thought of dynasty 3.0...

EDIT- I know some of this changed w Gordon trade etc but I cant find an updated link. My point is that they are well positioned for the draft...to restock/rebuild.

I view it as true because they chose not to chew up future cap and roster space on older players (Solder, DA) or players in which they did not feel were worth the money (DLew, Cooks) and decided on younger, cheaper players.

Bill and the team are in a fantastic position to reload through the draft and create a ton of cap space if needed.

I think my point is I look at what Bill does as an iterative, continuous process in which he tries to strike a balance for today by satisfying the need to stay competitive for a title and not mortgage the future.

We can debate if they are a true title contender this year but they are 7-3 and will most likely finish with 11-12 wins. If they play to their potential they have a legit shot to go to the Super Bowl.

If we want to call 2018 as a "bridge year", so be it.

 

[TommyD4207]

Trent Brown is not a top 3 performer this year. Hes been what Solder gave them.

After this season they will have a ton of draft picks and cap room. They could go 9-7 or 14-2. Time will tell.

He's been superior to Solder against better competition. It's not even close.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think Cuuran is implying that 2009 was the beginning of a "wholesale roster teardown" that was forced by the age/cost of core players. However, I think that the teardown was primarily on the defensive side, and primarily due to Belichick beginning a deliberate transition of the defensive schemes that mostly took place in 2010-11 (a change that caused Pees to walk). BB was going to need at least some players with different skill sets and experience, regardless.

While this corresponded with the beginning of "Dynasty v2.0", I wouldn't necessarily assume that it was the cause, as Curran appears to do.

So, the Pats do appear to be in a roster age/cost situation that's somewhat similar to that of 2009. Curran is claiming that "Dynasty v2.0" is ending this season, and he appears to be implying that another wholesale roster teardown is a prerequisite to the creation of "Dynasty v3.0".

IMHO, the only major roster change required for "Dynasty v3.0" - if there is to be one - is acquiring a Brady-level replacement in a mobile QB. The age/cost situations with Gronk, DMac, HT and others are merely coincidental.

Agree.

I think my beef with Curran's article is I don't see 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0. I see what he does with the roster as iterative. Every year, every week, and every day.

The fact is in 2008 & 2009 he acquired many pieces that would contribute in 2010 and beyond.

In essence, in software development jargon, Bill is running Agile/Scrum whereas Curran thinks he is running Waterfall.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think he's merely discussing dynasty as opposed to being a very competitive team.
Belichick will always find very competitive players who wish to buy in here.

I still go back to when he was in NY with Parcells.
They brought in a ton of FA OL's and built one of the best lines in the NFL out of that.
He will restock and we'll be in the mix ... I think the debate will just be how good w/o Brady.
It's not like we're a great team now ... we are a very good team that has Brady.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He's been superior to Solder against better competition. It's not even close.

Brown has done a very good job here.

Its clear you were not a fan of Solder

 

[TommyD4207]

Brown has done a very good job here.

Its clear you were not a fan of Solder

He maxed out at 'average'. Just look at how he's done once he left Dante Scarnecchia.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He maxed out at 'average'. Just look at how he's done once he left Dante Scarnecchia.

I view it as he was a very good fit here and did his job well.

What hes done in NY is irrelevant. That team sucks

 

[Fatmancryin]

I am so tired of the negative Nancy’s in sports journalism the last few years, expecially when it comes to the Patriots.

Curran is right, however were you bored during the by week and decided to write this piece now. Why not the off-season when they all are actually in their walk years not a year and half away.

Boston media and national media have done absolutely everything they can to beat up the Patriots with print.

It’s been 18 years, most of us know that the end may be coming. no one will ever see a run of success that the Pats have had over a 18 year stretch again.

Just F***** enjoy it, while we can.