2018 Draft/Positional Needs for Patriots

[maineman209]

This thread has to be started by the kind of person who lines up at WalMart the day after Christmas to buy discounted decorations for the next year. Ugh.

There are quite a few of us who really enjoy the scouting and roster-building aspects of football. Tracking players and prospects, and projecting who might fit in what role serves as an exercise to help deepen my understanding of the processes that the team (BB, Caserio, et al) engage in and of the constraints they must deal with. All of which enriches my enjoyment of the game.

There's an enormous amount of information to process, and this really isn't too early to begin gathering and organizing that information. The team certainly has been for awhile now.

In any case, if you think it's silly, fine. But no one is holding a gun to your head to force you to read this thread.

 

[maineman209]

We could really benefit from another sequence of drafts like the Chandler Jones/HT/Collins drafts that set the front seven for years.

In this past draft it seems like we hit on Wise Jr, so let's see if we can double dip at LB or DE/LB in the next one. The problem is that there's not much draft capital and ideally you draft the 1st rounders first, and then the stud 2nd/3rd rounder in the following year, so you have a 5 year window with these players.

I'm calling it now the bomb/surprise trade for the next free agency, Rob Gronkowski for a 1st rounder.

Taking into account all the players who the Pats currently have under contract on the active roster, IR, NFI and PS who seem likely to be part of the 2018 off-season, 90-man roster at the start of the new League Year, there are already 11 who could (hypothetically, at least) be candidates for an edge defender role (43-DE/34-OLB types), even if only situationally, or as rotational depth or emergency reserves.

T.Flowers
Wise
Lee
Hightower (on IR)
Rivers (IR)
Reilly (ST)
M. Flowers (ST)
Grissom (PS)
McClellin (IR)
Davis (NFI)
Langi (NFI)

Just to be clear, I'm NOT saying that all of these guys are of equal value, much less that all of them are candidates to start, just that they're likely to be on the initial "menu" of players that BB/Caserio/MP will have from which to select players to plug in to various roster slots (+ new free agents and draft selections). Among those slots to be filled are the ST/reserve guys who, like Bademosi among DBs, could start a couple of games on an emergency basis without being a liability.

For Interior LB, there may be only five:

Van Noy
Roberts
Harris
#M. Flowers
#Hightower

Even adding in safety types who might play an in-the-box role fairly frequently, there are only five more:

Chung
McCourty
Richards
Travis? (PS)
D. Jones? (PS)

All of the above forms the basis for my agreement that it would seem helpful to acquire another potential "lead" player - a Collins (without the freelancing) or a Mayo (without the injuries).

And I say this while acknowledging that Roberts has become a much more well-rounded player this season, and that Van Noy has dramatically emerged as a high-quality LB during his time in NE. In just a half-season in 2016, Van Noy matched his 2.5 year stat production in Detroit, and in just 10 games so far this year, his stats have already nearly surpassed the total from his previous three seasons.

However, with HT's health/availability perhaps being an ongoing concern, Harris being 33, and M. Flowers still being a bit of an unknown (and a UFA), it seems to me that attempting to add at least "another Van Noy" to the mix would be prudent, and possibly of somewhat greater need and long term value than a high-end edge-rusher.

OTOH, with both Chung and McCourty turning 31 next season, acquiring another potential high-end, in-the-box safety (soon) also seems fairly prudent.

So, while acquiring both another ILB type and another SS type would be wonderful, it seems to me that acquiring one or the other is nearly a "must have" now.

-------------
The "Gronk trade", though ... LOL! Nope, I'd be extremely surprised if that happened this cycle.

 

[maineman209]

Still too early as there’s plenty of football still to play - only stone cold lock is at QB.

Maybe for you. But if I wait until after the holidays and playoffs to set up my spreadsheets and plug-in the basic info, I'll be screwed when free agency starts.

 

[maineman209]

The main spots are LT, backup QB, DT, LB, CB

The key guys the Patriots have to replace will be Solder and Butler if don't resign Butler and Solder retires like we think he will.

At LT do we go with Garcia or someone else? I think Garcia is still the plan for now.

Here is what the Pats do.

#1 cut/redo Branch contract (saves up to 2.7M)
#2 cut/redo Bennett contract (saves up to 5.5M)
#3 cut/redo Allen contact (saves up to 4M)
#4 cut/redo McClellin (saves up to 1.5M)
#5 ask Brady to go from 22M to 20M if willing (saves 2M)

The Pats have 13.7M before any of these moves. Personally I'd cut Branch. Redo Bennett if he wants to come back cut Allen (or pay him about half as much) or if Bennett doesn't want to come back redo the Allen deal anyway. Neither have dead money so the Pats have a good deal of leverage. In either case TE behind Gronk should drop down by at least 5.1M if not more if Bennett doesn't come back and even if both do. I would let McClellin walk and save that 1.5 M. Also I would give strong consideration to letting Gillislee walk and saving that 1.5M. Frankly I don't see him as being much better than a JAG at this point but I will not include that.

This would bring the Pats cap space to about 23M

UFAs i'd sign

Burkhead 2.5M/yr
Lewis 2.5M/yr
Slater 1.5M/yr
Ebner 1.3M/yr
Amendola 1.7M/yr
Waddle 1.8M/yr - 11.3M total

RFAs I'd sign

King .6 M

Keep in mind all this could be lower considering how much they choose to back load the contracts.

This brings the total to 11.9M and you have about 12.1M to spend if you so choose. Do we spend that on Butler or not and if so how much? Also we need a little something for draft picks and emergency funds. Personally I bring Butler back and I think a contract averaging 9M is fair considering his play this year. He has been overall good but not a true top CB. That amount would make him the 17th highest paid CB in the NFL on average which is not bad at all. Start him at 6.4M this year and have it go up every year to average that number over 4/5 years.

The Pats would have 5.5M left and if they need to sign a small end guy cut a similar small end guy to be cap neutral. If need be ask Brady to change his contract just a few million. At this point extending him a year or 2 and having him take less this year as well wouldn't be crazy as he will be the solution the next 3 years you'd think at least but is only signed for 2018 and 2019.

Cap space even with Butler and signing the guys I want shouldn't be a big issue.

For picks if you believe Garcia is the solution at LT you can focus on front 7 and trying to find a backup.

1st rd pick - front 7 player
2nd rd pick (SF) - trade down for a 2nd and 4th (only you think you can only get a worthy QB prospect here)
2nd rd pick - backup QB
2nd rd pick - front 7 player
3rd rd pick - ???? depends
4th rd pick - ???? depends

Roster

Offense - 25

QB - 3 -Brady Hoyer (draft pick)
RB/FB - 5 - White Burkhead Lewis Gillislee Develin (Bolden cut unless injuries happen)
TE - 3 - Gronk Bennett/Allen/Hollister(2 of these 3 depending on contracts and retirement. Maybe draft a TE too depending how it plays out in the 3rd or 4th)
WR - 5 - Cooks Edelman Hogan Mitchell Amedola/Dorsett (cut Dorsett or let Amendola retire... I wanna keep Amendola... maybe a surprise MM cut due to injuries)
OT - 4 - Cannon Garcia Waddle (draft pick maybe or vet already on roster)
IOL - 5 - Thuney Andrews Mason Karras Croston?(could change)

Defense - 22

DE/DT - 8 -Flowers Rivers Wise Brown Butler Guy Valentine (draft pick)
LB - 5 - Hightower Van Noy Harris Roberts (draft pick)
CB - 5 - Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, J. Jones, C. Jones (maybe Bademosi over Rowe or C. Jones?)
S - 4 - McCourty Harmon Chung Richard

STs - 6 - Slater, Ebner, King, Gost, Allen Cardona

Something like that I'd guess.

Assuming that Rowe returns to health this season and shows that he can play well - with the emergence of Jon Jones, the evidence that Bademosi can come off the bench and not be a liability, and the potential that Cy Jones might continue his development, I'm actually comfortable seeing Butler walk, now. At least, I'm not as concerned about it as I was last spring.

 

[DarrylS]

Assuming that Rowe returns to health this season and shows that he can play well - with the emergence of Jon Jones, the evidence that Bademosi can come off the bench and not be a liability, and the potential that Cy Jones might continue his development, I'm actually comfortable seeing Butler walk, now. At least, I'm not as concerned about it as I was last spring.

My eyeball tells me that Butler is having a few hiccups this year and is not as effective as he was last year.. perhaps the other teams have identified his weaknesses and are exploiting them. He will get "paid", but not necessarily by the NEP...

 

[maineman209]

People thinking we're not going to draft a QB in 2018 when we have our starting QB turning 41 is very bizarre. Considering it takes young QBs a few years to get accumulated, I highly expect the patriots to draft a QB in 2018 to sit and learn.

It seems certain that the Pats will have 3-4 QBs on the 90-man roster in 2018, regardless how #3 & #4 are acquired.

It seems certain that the Pats have been doing some very focused scouting of QB prospects who may be available in the 2018 draft for awhile now - and probably 2019 and 2020, too.

It seems equally certain that the Pats have been performing due diligence on young QBs who are already in the NFL, but riding pine behind established starters.

What doesn't seem entirely certain to me is that the Pats WILL draft a QB prospect in 2018. IF a prospect in this draft who the Pats believe is suitable who falls into the range of their picks (or even into the late-teens/early 20s of the first round), they're certain to take him. The uncertainty is whether or not "their guy" is available/within reach - or even exists - in this draft class (by their estimation, not ours).

If a potential "Brady replacement" QB is NOT available to the Pats in the 2018 draft class, they might be forced to wait until 2019 and temporize with a late-rounder/UDFA, an additional UFA signing, or even a low-level trade for a guy like Jake Rudock (DET).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Can’t answer for Deus, but I think either type would fit just fine, assuming that we’re speaking of a tackling machine/athletic coverage backer, and not just a pure ear-pinning pass rusher (which I doubt is the case).

With HT and his injury history along with the desire to move him more (or experimentation with it), we could use a guy in the mold of a Jerod Mayo just as much as we could a Jamie Collins.

Agree. All of the above would be fine with maybe a bit of a priority with a player who can rush the passer.

 

[Soliel]

I’d go with one linebacker. One offensive linemen. One defensive line guy. One backup quarterback in case some dumb stuff happens and trades.

I hate to tell you but I think roger takes our first pick away over marty

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I hate to tell you but I think roger takes our first pick away over marty

Are you just being funny, or you do you seriously believe this?

 

[patriot1136]

Malcolm Butler is the most interesting to me. His whole situation could go either way. That will impact a lot of other moves/players.

 

[mgteich]

I marked this post a winner. However, I would add DT.

5 Highest priorities seem pretty obvious, as of this moment, though some might argue the order:

QB
OT
TE
DE
LB

 

[mgteich]

I agree. I think Malcolm's replacement is on the roster

???

We have Gilmore, Rowe, Jones and Jones for 2018. Perhaps you think that Bademosi (who is a free agent) is the replacement for Butler.

I agree that Butler is unlikely to be playing for the patriots. HOWEVER, we will be signing 2-3 corners.

 

[Addictive]

My eyeball tells me that Butler is having a few hiccups this year and is not as effective as he was last year.. perhaps the other teams have identified his weaknesses and are exploiting them. He will get "paid", but not necessarily by the NEP...

I think it's becoming more likely that Butler does depart after this season which I think would be sad considering those specials moments he has given us as fans but most players don't stay with a franchise their entire career and players should look out for themselves to make as much money for themselves as they can in what amounts to a short playing career over their lifetime.

If Butler is a top 20 CB which most of us consider he is (if not maybe top 10) then I just don't see Coach and GM Bill letting Butler go for a comp pick. I think most likely Butler will either be franchised for one more year with the Patriots - which makes sense since we are chasing Super Bowls so why give us top talent) or you tag and trade Butler for a second round pick. Yes, it's expensive for teams to give up a draft pick and then give the player a large contract but the draft is a lottery. Coach Bill showed this season giving up two picks for Brandin Cooks is worth it. How much impact is a draft pick going to have - perhaps none at all, certainly unlikely to be starting from day one. A team which trades for Butler knows he can slot into their backfield and go toe to toe with the top wide receivers in the league and that equals value (if you have cap room and picks).

 

[mgteich]

Personally, I think that there is a better use for $14M of cap room than franchising Butler. I expect us to re-sign Bademosi and also sign a couple of corners.

Gilmore is really our replacement for Butler as our #1 corner. Butler is likely to be too expensive to be re-signed as our #2. I wouldn't be at all shocked if Belichick is comfortable with Rowe and Bademosi as the #2 and #3 corners, with Jones as the nickel back. This is true especially if we consider who we might sign for the money it would take to re-sign Butler.

BOTTOM LINE
If we are looking to signing a top level free agent, LB is a better choice.

I think it's becoming more likely that Butler does depart after this season which I think would be sad considering those specials moments he has given us as fans but most players don't stay with a franchise their entire career and players should look out for themselves to make as much money for themselves as they can in what amounts to a short playing career over their lifetime.

If Butler is a top 20 CB which most of us consider he is (if not maybe top 10) then I just don't see Coach and GM Bill letting Butler go for a comp pick. I think most likely Butler will either be franchised for one more year with the Patriots - which makes sense since we are chasing Super Bowls so why give us top talent) or you tag and trade Butler for a second round pick. Yes, it's expensive for teams to give up a draft pick and then give the player a large contract but the draft is a lottery. Coach Bill showed this season giving up two picks for Brandin Cooks is worth it. How much impact is a draft pick going to have - perhaps none at all, certainly unlikely to be starting from day one. A team which trades for Butler knows he can slot into their backfield and go toe to toe with the top wide receivers in the league and that equals value (if you have cap room and picks).

 

[HailHydra]

My Predictions
1. Nate Solder - Released. We have our backup tackles performing admirably so far and Solder isn't the LT he once was.

2. Malcolm Butler - Released. He hasn't brought the same level of play from the past and he is going to be 28. Doesn't seem like having a 28 year old corner on a long-term deal would be the best move - especially when we have contributors playing on a similar level lower on the depth chart.

3. Burkhead - Signed to another 1 year.

4. Bademosi - 2 year deal. He played really well and he's gonna be cheap enough for the team to resign.

5. Slater - Released.

6. Fleming - Signed if possible but a weak OT class could jack up the salary.

7. Amendola - Released.

8. Lewis - Signed to a 2 year deal.

9. Waddle - Signed to a long-term deal.


In the draft, I see us picking up a DE in the 1st round and then a CB and OT in 2nd round. Then I see a RB, S, and WR being picked up.

 

[Deus Irae]

I marked this post a winner. However, I would add DT.

I currently have DT at #6, but I was doing a top 5.

 

[Pats1989]

This is the type of thread you'd expected started up on the Browns forum. That said:

1. LB. Hightower has proven to be great when healthy. That said, I have concerns about his health. Look for another one to add to what they have.

2. DE. Have to see which free agent/ and or top draft candidates are out there.

3. A new tight end will be needed (likely) when Brady goes for his 10th ring by 2025 or so.

 

[RobertWeathers]

???

We have Gilmore, Rowe, Jones and Jones for 2018. Perhaps you think that Bademosi (who is a free agent) is the replacement for Butler.

I agree that Butler is unlikely to be playing for the patriots. HOWEVER, we will be signing 2-3 corners.

No. JJ is

 

[PatriotReign]

No. JJ is

I'm not as high on Jonathan Jones as some on this board. He doesn't play to his speed and is poor at changing direction. They tried putting him on Sanders for one play against the Donkeys and he got absolutely barbecued.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not as high on Jonathan Jones as some on this board. He doesn't play to his speed and is poor at changing direction. They tried putting him on Sanders for one play against the Donkeys and he got absolutely barbecued.

I like him