2018 Draft/Positional Needs for Patriots

[Brady6]

Personally I think this discussion is at least 6-8 weeks too early. If it had been done last year at the same time I am sure the majority would have said something about White not being a roster lock and Flowers a JAG.

Once the ink is dry on the entire season there will be a better snapshot of where players are.

Flowers and White were both major contributors at this point in the season last year.

 

[Brady6]

The main spots are LT, backup QB, DT, LB, CB

The key guys the Patriots have to replace will be Solder and Butler if don't resign Butler and Solder retires like we think he will.

At LT do we go with Garcia or someone else? I think Garcia is still the plan for now.

Here is what the Pats do.

#1 cut/redo Branch contract (saves up to 2.7M)
#2 cut/redo Bennett contract (saves up to 5.5M)
#3 cut/redo Allen contact (saves up to 4M)
#4 cut/redo McClellin (saves up to 1.5M)
#5 ask Brady to go from 22M to 20M if willing (saves 2M)

The Pats have 13.7M before any of these moves. Personally I'd cut Branch. Redo Bennett if he wants to come back cut Allen (or pay him about half as much) or if Bennett doesn't want to come back redo the Allen deal anyway. Neither have dead money so the Pats have a good deal of leverage. In either case TE behind Gronk should drop down by at least 5.1M if not more if Bennett doesn't come back and even if both do. I would let McClellin walk and save that 1.5 M. Also I would give strong consideration to letting Gillislee walk and saving that 1.5M. Frankly I don't see him as being much better than a JAG at this point but I will not include that.

This would bring the Pats cap space to about 23M

UFAs i'd sign

Burkhead 2.5M/yr
Lewis 2.5M/yr
Slater 1.5M/yr
Ebner 1.3M/yr
Amendola 1.7M/yr
Waddle 1.8M/yr - 11.3M total

RFAs I'd sign

King .6 M

Keep in mind all this could be lower considering how much they choose to back load the contracts.

This brings the total to 11.9M and you have about 12.1M to spend if you so choose. Do we spend that on Butler or not and if so how much? Also we need a little something for draft picks and emergency funds. Personally I bring Butler back and I think a contract averaging 9M is fair considering his play this year. He has been overall good but not a true top CB. That amount would make him the 17th highest paid CB in the NFL on average which is not bad at all. Start him at 6.4M this year and have it go up every year to average that number over 4/5 years.

The Pats would have 5.5M left and if they need to sign a small end guy cut a similar small end guy to be cap neutral. If need be ask Brady to change his contract just a few million. At this point extending him a year or 2 and having him take less this year as well wouldn't be crazy as he will be the solution the next 3 years you'd think at least but is only signed for 2018 and 2019.

Cap space even with Butler and signing the guys I want shouldn't be a big issue.

For picks if you believe Garcia is the solution at LT you can focus on front 7 and trying to find a backup.

1st rd pick - front 7 player
2nd rd pick (SF) - trade down for a 2nd and 4th (only you think you can only get a worthy QB prospect here)
2nd rd pick - backup QB
2nd rd pick - front 7 player
3rd rd pick - ???? depends
4th rd pick - ???? depends

Roster

Offense - 25

QB - 3 -Brady Hoyer (draft pick)
RB/FB - 5 - White Burkhead Lewis Gillislee Develin (Bolden cut unless injuries happen)
TE - 3 - Gronk Bennett/Allen/Hollister(2 of these 3 depending on contracts and retirement. Maybe draft a TE too depending how it plays out in the 3rd or 4th)
WR - 5 - Cooks Edelman Hogan Mitchell Amedola/Dorsett (cut Dorsett or let Amendola retire... I wanna keep Amendola... maybe a surprise MM cut due to injuries)
OT - 4 - Cannon Garcia Waddle (draft pick maybe or vet already on roster)
IOL - 5 - Thuney Andrews Mason Karras Croston?(could change)

Defense - 22

DE/DT - 8 -Flowers Rivers Wise Brown Butler Guy Valentine (draft pick)
LB - 5 - Hightower Van Noy Harris Roberts (draft pick)
CB - 5 - Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, J. Jones, C. Jones (maybe Bademosi over Rowe or C. Jones?)
S - 4 - McCourty Harmon Chung Richard

STs - 6 - Slater, Ebner, King, Gost, Allen Cardona

Something like that I'd guess.

Butler is going to get a minimum of $12M per season.

It might be time to cut ties with Matthew Slater unless he wants to take a pay cut. His play has dropped off significantly since 2015. He had 17 special teams tackles in 2015, his 2016 and 2017 production is 10 tackles combined. He is having trouble staying healthy.

 

[BobDigital]

Butler is going to get a minimum of $12M per season.

It might be time to cut ties with Matthew Slater unless he wants to take a pay cut. His play has dropped off significantly since 2015. He had 17 special teams tackles in 2015, his 2016 and 2017 production is 10 tackles combined. He is having trouble staying healthy.

I was thinking that before too but 12M puts him up there with the 10 top CBs in the NFL. I don't think he is in that group this year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I was thinking that before too but 12M puts him up there with the 10 top CBs in the NFL. I don't think he is in that group this year.

Gilmore had a down 2016 and it had no bearing on his dollars

 

[Aßßynormal]

Just a reminder that this Forum has an under used Draft Forum. Maybe, this thread will spur some interest there.

Patriots Draft Talk

We have a paramount need to spend whatever we need to (in Draft Capital), in order to have multiple options after Brady's demise. At a point where we have rated a QB prospect as a capable messiah, we should stop and draft him. Last, If Andrew Luck has an operation this off season, we should consider making an offer for him.

That said, I want a DT in the first two picks. A "Captain" capable LB and a three down TE after that.

 

[Addictive]

.Last, If Andrew Luck has an operation this off season, we should consider making an offer for him.

I said in the original post of this thread that I don't think the Patriots will draft a QB in 2018. I think they will rely on Hoyer as back up for next season. I think they'll look for a QB in the first two rounds of 2019 or either attempt to trade for Andrew Luck or sign Luck should he be cut by the Colts.

I imagine Andrew Luck is getting tired of losing with the Colts and being insulted by the owner while gutting it out playing hurt with no O-Line in front of him due to poor cap management.

Luck is owed a lot of money by the Colts for that massive contract he signed two years ago. There is an option to release him with $12 million in dead money which could happen depending on how Brissett continues to play or if the Colts take another QB in the draft.

 

[luuked]

Flowers and White were both major contributors at this point in the season last year.

rofl..

 

[luuked]

I think they'll look for a QB in the first two rounds of 2019 or either attempt to trade for Andrew Luck or sign Luck should he be cut by the Colts.

I imagine Andrew Luck is getting tired of losing with the Colts and being insulted by the owner while gutting it out playing hurt with no O-Line in front of him due to poor cap management.

Luck is owed a lot of money by the Colts for that massive contract he signed two years ago. There is an option to release him with $12 million in dead money which could happen depending on how Brissett continues to play or if the Colts take another QB in the draft.

Are you serious ? Why would the Colts ever cut or trade Luck unless his injury is beyond being salvageable ? Can we at least pretend to be somewhat realistic ? Jesus... why not go for Wentz ?

 

[NG Pats Fan]

People thinking we're not going to draft a QB in 2018 when we have our starting QB turning 41 is very bizarre. Considering it takes young QBs a few years to get accumulated, I highly expect the patriots to draft a QB in 2018 to sit and learn.

 

[Deus Irae]

5 Highest priorities seem pretty obvious, as of this moment, though some might argue the order:

QB
OT
TE
DE
LB

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I said in the original post of this thread that I don't think the Patriots will draft a QB in 2018. I think they will rely on Hoyer as back up for next season. I think they'll look for a QB in the first two rounds of 2019 or either attempt to trade for Andrew Luck or sign Luck should he be cut by the Colts.

I imagine Andrew Luck is getting tired of losing with the Colts and being insulted by the owner while gutting it out playing hurt with no O-Line in front of him due to poor cap management.

Luck is owed a lot of money by the Colts for that massive contract he signed two years ago. There is an option to release him with $12 million in dead money which could happen depending on how Brissett continues to play or if the Colts take another QB in the draft.

Post 6/1/18 release cap hit:
2018 Dead Cap: $9,400,000 (2018 Cap Savings: $15,000,000)
2019 Dead Cap: $12,800,000

Post 6/1/2019 release cap hit:
2019 Dead Cap: $6,400,000 (2019 Cap Savings: $21,125,000)
2020 Dead Cap: $6,400,000


Luck's contract all but guarantees (just assuming for discussion the Colts have given up on him in the first place) he'll be on the Colts roster in 2018. He could then be cut with the Colts, in 2019, having a cap savings that justifies the more palatable dead money ((while Luck ends up with 75 million in cash for 1 year of being assaulted, 1 IR year of being insulted, 1 year of ??? [for 75m I'd volunteer to be assaulted and insulted ])

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Gilmore had a down 2016 and it had no bearing on his dollars

Maybe so but I find it hard to believe someone will pay butler 12 million dollars but we will see. Gilmore's a much more talented corner than butler. Has more height. In bill I trust. I am sure he will find a suitable replacement.

 

[RobertWeathers]

5 Highest priorities seem pretty obvious, as of this moment, though some might argue the order:

QB
OT
TE
DE
LB

What kind of LB are you thinking?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Maybe so but I find it hard to believe someone will pay butler 12 million dollars but we will see. Gilmore's a much more talented corner than butler. Has more height. In bill I trust. I am sure he will find a suitable replacement.

I agree. I think Malcolm's replacement is on the roster

 

[Adam Seward]

Any pick spent in the front 7 would be helpful, CB depending who we resign, OT seems like a must.

 

[supafly]

I said in the original post of this thread that I don't think the Patriots will draft a QB in 2018.

Couldn’t disagree more. With 3 picks in the top 60-64 (or so) selections and one of the deepest QB drafts in years, they’d be stupid not to replace JG with a new second rounder who will be locked up through spring of 2022 (finally, a chance to see Brady’s successor) on a cheap, rookie pact.

After all, it takes at least a year to get the system down to where you can be expected to reasonably contribute. That already means that they’re good with Brady for 2018 and maybe even 2019, although one would think that Hoyer would be retained as the main backup through the end of 2018 for obvious reasons.

On top of that, we can finally get back to drafting a couple of other players in the top 60-64 selections like the good old days, and the decision to go QB with that extra pick doesn’t affect it whatsoever. Now is the time to strike. Too much talent there to ignore the future.

 

[supafly]

Any pick spent in the front 7 would be helpful, CB depending who we resign, OT seems like a must.

OT is at the top of my list, too, unless the rumors of a potential 1-2 year extension with Solder are true. Last I heard, both sides were open to that possibility. If Solder is kept on, you still the possibility to keep one of Cannon/Waddle, with Garcia hopefully studying Dante’s schooling during his redshirt year.

If all of that happens, OT can be pushed back to the later rounds. Either way, I agree with you that it should be addressed no matter what.

 

[supafly]

What kind of LB are you thinking?

Can’t answer for Deus, but I think either type would fit just fine, assuming that we’re speaking of a tackling machine/athletic coverage backer, and not just a pure ear-pinning pass rusher (which I doubt is the case).

With HT and his injury history along with the desire to move him more (or experimentation with it), we could use a guy in the mold of a Jerod Mayo just as much as we could a Jamie Collins.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

On top of that, we can finally get back to drafting a couple of other players in the top 60-64 selections like the good old days, and the decision to go QB with that extra pick doesn’t affect it whatsoever. Now is the time to strike. Too much talent there to ignore the future.

60 to 64? Let's not play games Sup, the pick is going to be at 64.

Pics 32, 33(Cleveland wins a game!) and 64: A QB, OT, LB that are all superstars in the waiting

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Can’t answer for Deus, but I think either type would fit just fine, assuming that we’re speaking of a tackling machine/athletic coverage backer, and not just a pure ear-pinning pass rusher (which I doubt is the case).

With HT and his injury history along with the desire to move him more (or experimentation with it), we could use a guy in the mold of a Jerod Mayo just as much as we could a Jamie Collins.

Agreed about a Mayo type if that is a MLB/ILB who can be a defensive captain type rock solid plug in the middle. And not a liability on a pass play would be A-OK too.